HomeMy WebLinkAbout20190531_Coastal Hazards_5-20-2019GEOTECHNICAL ■MATERIALS ■ SPECIAL INSPECTIONS
24632 San Juan Avenue, Suite 100
Dana Point, California 92629
949.338.7710
Brightview Development, LLC
C\O CalPro Engineering & Design, Inc.
Mansour@calproengineering.com
949.715.9990
303 Broadway Suite 209
Laguna Beach, CA 9269 51
Subject: Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
SBE ■ SCOOP
Proposed Single-Family Residence Remodel
3904 River Avenue, Newport Beach, CA 92660
May 20, 2019
Project No.: 3019035
NOV A Services, Inc. (NOV A) has prepared this Coastal Hazard Analysis Report for the proposed
development at the subject property. This report investigates the coastal hazard impact to the proposed
development over the next 75 years and address compliance with the Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
requirements and standards of NBMC Section 21.30.15.E.2.
Site Description
The subject property is located at 3904 River Avenue, Newport Beach, California. The site is bound by
River Avenue to the southwest, single-family residential development to the northwest and southeast, and
by Newport Bay to the northeast. The site is bound by Newport Bay to the northeast and may be susceptible
to Coastal Hazards such as flooding, wave runup, high tide conditions, sea level rise, erosion, and tsunami
inundation. Figures 1 and 2 (following pages) present a vicinity map and an aerial photograph of the subject
site.
Statement of the Preparers' Qualifications
Carl D. Schrenk, CEG, a preparer of the Coastal Hazard Report, holds a B.S. in Geology from University
of Utah and has held a license in Certified Engineering Geologist in the state of California for over 40 years.
For the last 20 years, he has been actively involved with developments that are located along waterfronts,
blufftop and beachfront developments. He also provided geotechnical consulting services on beach access
for the Department of Beaches and Parks for the County of Orange. Carl has provided geotechnical
consulting services and completed numerous reports for developments susceptible to coastal hazards and
were accepted/approved by the California Coastal Commission.
Jesse D. Bearfield, PE, a preparer of the Coastal Hazard Report, holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering from
South Dakota State University, and is a Licensed Civil Engineer by the State of California, License No.
C84335. For the last 4 years of his professional career he has been involved with development along
waterfront, blufftop and beachfront developments for many coastal communities in Southern California
including for the historic Hotel Del Coronado in San Diego.
24632 San Juan Avenue, Suite 100 I Dana Point, CA 92629 I P :949.338.7710
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
With the years of experience and successful coastal developments, Carl D. Schrenk, CEG, and Jesse D.
Bearfield, PE, shall be considered qualified preparers for the Coastal Hazards Analysis Report on this
project.
Objective
Figure 1. Site Vicinity Map
(Source: Rand McNally, 2019)
The objective of the work reported herein is to evaluate the coastal impact to the subject lot over the next
75 years.
Scope
In order to accomplish the above-described objective, NOV A undertook the task-based scope of services
described below.
• Task 1: Establish Sea Level Rise. NOVA utilized the State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance
Update 2018 to research the anticipated mean sea level for the year 2094 (75 years).
• Task 2: Determine Sea-Level Rise Impact to Proposed Construction. NOVA utilized available tide
records for Newport Beach and compared them to the proposed finished floor elevations.
2
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
• Task 3: Determine Flooding Hazards. Analyze existing data relating to flooding including El Nino
conditions, coastal flooding, and tsunami inundation.
• Task 4: Analyze Wave Runup. Assess the potential for wave runup based on site location.
• Task 5: Analyze Erosional Hazards. Utilize the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3:
Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the
California Coast to determine the erosion rate per year.
Geologic Coastal Hazards
Figure 2. Site Aerial Photo
(Source: Google Earth, 2019)
The subject property is located adjacent to Newport Beach Harbor and is subject to geologic hazards
including but not limited to sea-level rise, erosion, flooding, and wave runup. While it is understood that
the sea levels have been rising over the past decades due to climate change, estimated rates of change in
sea level are approximate and are influenced by an increase in sea water temperature. An increase in
temperature of the ocean will cause the water to expand and will increase the rates at which the ice caps
3
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
will melt, subsequently releasing stored water from the ice caps into the ocean. It is estimated by the year
2100 the sea-level rise ranges from 1 to 3 feet from existing mean sea level. The warming of the ocean
water attributed to climate change may increase the intensity of the storms originating in the Pacific Ocean
and bring with it an increase of wind, wave energy and precipitation.
Sea Level Rise and Wave Run up
NOVA utilized The State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance 2018, developed by Ocean Protection
Council, California Natural Resources Agency, and the California Ocean Protection Council that describes
the best available science to support planning for sea-level rise in California. Table 28 taken from The State
of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance describes a 66% probability of sea-level rise for high emissions in
2090 and 2100 for low risk aversion that is approximately 2. 9' after a straight-line interpolation for the year
2094, the estimated economic life of the structure. The highest tide of7.67' MLLW (7.49' NAVD88) with
a wave runup correction of 0.3' for the project area will establish the bay water level of 10.39' NA VD88.
According to the provided project plans, the proposed finished floor at the rear of the property is 9 .12'
(NA VD88=8.94' MLLW) and is above the established Base Flood Elevation for the area. The proposed
finished floor is 1.27' above the highest tide reached in Newport Beach (7.67' MLLW). It is estimated that
by the year 2060 the highest high tide will reach near the finished floor elevation. It is recommended that
a 16-inch concrete curb be installed at the top of building slab at the exterior wall locations bringing the top
of curb elevation to 10.45' NA VD88. Areas where concrete curbs are not desired such as doorways can be
temporarily protected with the utilization of sandbags.
Flooding Hazard
The subject property is located adjacent to Newport Bay and therefore the primary flooding hazard will
come from sea-level rise. The existing Newport Bay water levels are reflected in the datum for the Newport
Bay entrance (Datum 9410580) and is attached herein. Based on the provided plans, the top elevation of
the existing seawall is 6.84' to 6.95'. It is recommended that the seawall be constructed such that the top
elevation is not less than 10.0 MLLW to bring the top of seawall elevation in compliance with the current
City of Newport Beach Waterfront Projects Guidelines and Standards. A higher elevation may be required
by the City of Newport Beach pending design review.
It should be noted that strong El Nino conditions under high tides may increase the risk of coastal flooding.
Proactive measures to limit flooding should be considered and includes placing sand bags around building
openings, design the finished floor elevations above the base flood elevations, and include a concrete curb
designed at the perimeter walls.
Bulkhead Seawall
A recent site visit observed the seawall to be generally in good condition with the exception of a crack in
the wall at the location where the deck and seawall are connected as depicted in the photo below. The
seawall should be evaluated by a structural engineer and the increase in height requirements to bring the
seawall to code should be designed by a structural engineer.
4
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOV A Project No. 3019035
Figure 3. Existing Seawall at 3904 River Avenue, Newport Beach
Erosion Hazard
Erosion refers to the cyclical long-term pattern defined by the loss or displacement of land along the
coastline by wave runup, tidal forces, currents, wind and water born forces. Erosion hazard is a primary
concern for properties developed along open ocean shores. The subject property is located along the
Newport Bay, has a beachfront footprint that is stabilized and not subject to cyclical erosion as previously
discussed. Review, analysis of historical aerial photographs and field observations of the subject site show
no significant change to the shoreline in the last several decades. Typical cyclical erosion from wave runup
is caused by boat wake and wind and is not subject to long-term erosion. The shoreline changes are not
expected to change in the next several decades. The sea-level rise and the impact from climate change may
increase the potential to accelerate shoreline erosion but it is not expected impact the structure.
Tsunami Hazard
The risk of flooding due to tsunami is considered low because of the absence of geologic conditions needed
to generate a tsunami. A tsunami can be generated by sudden movement of the ocean's surface cause by
plate tectonics, underwater landslides, volcanic eruptions. The location of the site, distance from the ocean
shoreline, and the absence of the source of tsunami greatly reduces the likelihood of an impact from
tsunami. In the event of a tsunami, likely originating from a great distance, would enter Newport Harbor
and cause a small 1-to 2-foot wave that will dissipate as it travels throughout harbor and not have an impact
5
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
to the site because of the adjacent developments. The likely occurrence of a tsunami impacting the site
over the economic life of the structure should not be considered significant. Figure 3, attached below,
shows the site in relation to the tsunami inundation area.
Conclusion
?-n:WPORT BEACH
KEY TO SYMBOLS
...r...-Tsunami Inundation Line
Tsunami Inundation Area
Figure 4. Tsunami Inundation Map
It is not anticipated that flooding, erosion, tsunami, and sea-level rise will not significantly impact this
proposed improvements provided the structural condition of the bulkhead seawall is evaluated and
adequately raised so that the top of the seawall is raised to 10.0' MLLW and the 16" concrete curbs be
installed at the perimeter wall locations while utilizing sandbags for building openings during severe
flooding. If found that over the next 75 years the bulkhead seawall is inadequate to mitigate against a
rising sea-level the bulkhead should be designed for an increase in height without encroaching seaward.
Closure
The opinions and conclusions included herein are based on the ex1stmg site conditions, proposed
improvements, and projections of future sea-level rise. The conclusions and opinions have been developed
6
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
in accordance with generally acceptable engineering principles and practices with inherent limitations of
this study, NOV A makes no further warranty, either expressed of implied. Please call if you have any
questions regarding the above.
Respectively submitted,
NOVA Services z:e~
Jes,3. ~84335 Carl D. Schrenk, CEG 900
CDS/spp:jdb
Attachments: References
Newport Bay Datum
Projected Sea-Level Rise for Los Angeles
Distribution: 4/ Addressee
7
PA2019-102
Coastal Hazard Analysis Report
3904 River Ave, Newport Beach, California
References
May 20, 2019
NOVA Project No. 3019035
Abrahamson, N., and Shedlock, K., editors, 1997, Ground motion attenuation relationships:
Seismological Research Letters, v. 68, no. 1, January 1997 special issue, 256 p.
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2010, Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other
Structures, ASCE 7-10.
California Building Code (CBC), 2016 Edition.
California Geological Survey (CGS), 1997, Guidelines for Evaluating and Mitigating Seismic Hazards
in California, Special Publication 117.
California Natural Resources Agency; California Ocean Protection Council; State of California Sea-Level
Rise Guidance, 2018 Update.
Cao, T, Bryant, W.A., Rowhandel, B., Branum. D., and Wills, C., 2003, The Revised 2002
California Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps, California Geologic Survey (CGS), June 2003.
City ofNewport Beach, A Presentation on Newport Harbor's Base Flood Elevation (BFE) & Balboa Island Sea
Wall Height, Community Development Department, Public Works Department.
City ofNewport Beach Waterfront Project Guidelines and Standards, Harbor Design Criteria, Commercial &
Residential Facilities, 2017 Edition.
Frankel, AD., et al., 2002, Documentation for the 2002 Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps, USGS
Open-File Report 02-420.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Mitigation Directorate, National Flood Insurance Program,
Guidelines and Specifications for Wave Elevation Determination and V Zone Mapping, Final Draft, March
1995.
NOAA Tides and Currents Datums for 9410580, Newport Beach, Newport Bay Entrance, CA
Petersen, M.D., Bryant, W.A., Cramer, C.H., Cao, T., Reichle, M.S., Frankel, AD., Leinkaemper, J.J.,
McCrory, P.A., and Schwarz, D.P., 1996, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of
California: California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report 96-08.
U.S. Department of the Inteiror; U.S. Geologic Survey; USGS, National Assessment of Shoreline Change
Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the
California Coast, Open-File Report 2006-1219.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1995, Seismic Hazards in Southern California:
Probable Earthquakes, 1994-2024: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 85, No. 2, pp.
379-439.
www.seismicmaps.org, OSHPD Seismic Design Maps
8
PA2019-102
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9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA
Home (/) I Products (products.html) / Datums (stations.html?type=Datums) /
9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA Favorite Stations,,.
Station Info,,. Tides/Water Levels,,. Meteorological Obs. Phys. Oceanography
Current Datum Value: 3.33
Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY
ENTRANCE CA
NOTICE: All data values are relative to the MLLW.
Elevations on Mean Lower Low Water
Station: 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA
Status: Accepted (Apr 17 2003)
Units: Feet
Control Station: 9410660 Los Angeles, CA
T.M.: 120
Epoch: (/datum_options.html#NTDE) 1983-2001
Datum: MLLW
Datum
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MLLW (/datum_options.html#MLLW)
NAVD88 (/datum_options.html)
STND (/datum_options.html#STND)
GT (/datum_options.html#GT)
Value
5.41
4.68
2.80
2.78
2.71
0.92
0.00
0.18
-3.33
5.41
Description
Mean Higher-High Water
Mean High Water
Mean Tide Level
Mean Sea Level
Mean Diurnal Tide Level
Mean Low Water
Mean Lower-Low Water
North American Vertical Datum of 1988
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Great Diurnal Range
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Tidal Datum Analysis Periods
01/01/1980 -12/31/1993
Value Description
3.76 Mean Range of Tide
0.74 Mean Diurnal High Water Inequality
0.92 Mean Diurnal Low Water Inequality
5.08 Greenwich High Water Interval (in hours)
11.15 Greenwich Low Water Interval (in hours)
7.67 Highest Observed Tide
01/28/1983 08:06 Highest Observed Tide Date & Time
-2.35 Lowest Observed Tide
01/20/1988 16:30 Lowest Observed Tide Date & Time
7 .18 Highest Astronomical Tide
12/02/1990 16:06 HAT Date and Time
-1.92 Lowest Astronomical Tide
01/01/1987 00:00 LAT Date and Time
To refer water level heights to NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), apply the values located at National Geodetic
Survey (http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/Tidal_Elevation/diagram.xhtml?PID=DX1968&EPOCH=1983-2001 ).
Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA
All figures in feet relative to MLLW
e MHHW: 5.41
5 DHQ: 0.74
MHW: 4.68♦-------+---
PA2019-102
Showing datums for
[ 9410580 NEWPORT BEACH ...
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MLLW
Data Units <!> Feet
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0 Superseded (1960-1978)
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PA2019-102
! High emissions
TABLE 28: Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles
Probabilistic projections for the height of sea-level rise shown below, along with the
H++ scenario (depicted in blue in the far right column), as seen in the Rising Seas
Report. The H++ projection is a single scenario and does not have an associated
likelihood of occurrence as do the probabilistic projections. Probabilistic projections
are with respect to a baseline of the year 2000, or more specifically the average
relative sea level over 7997 -2009. High emissions represents RCP 8. 5; low emissions
represents RCP 2.6. Recommended projections for use in low, medium-high and
extreme risk aversion decisions are outlined in blue boxes below.
Low
Risk
Aversion
Medium· High
Risk Aversion
2030 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7
2040 0.5 0.4 0.7 0 .9 1.2
2050 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.8
Extreme
Risk Aversion
1.0
1.7
2.6
low emissions 2060 o.8 o.5 1.1 1.4 2.2
High emissions 2060 1.0 o.7 u 1.7 2.5 3.7
Low emissions 2070 o.9 0.6 u 1.8 2.9
i High emissions 2070 1.2 o.8 1.7 2 2 3.3 5.0 r·-----------------------------<---------+-----~1----¼-----------------------------------·
I tow emissions 2080 1.0 0.6 1.6 2.1 3.6
! High emissions 2080 1.5 1.0 2.8 4_.3 _______________ ~~----------
i low emissions 2090 1.2 0.7 2.5 4.5
1-! H_ig_h_e_m_ls_sio_n_s __ 2090 -----~----------------18 ______________ __!_ ___ 1.2 _____ 3.4 5.3 8.0
1 low emissions 2100 I 1.3 0.7 3.o 5.4
i High emissions 2100 J 2.2 u 6.7 9.9
! Low emissions lllO' 1.4 0.9 .--... --~.o 2.9 FOR
i High emissions 2110' 2.3 1.6 3.3 YEAR 2094 11.5 r-------------------------~::---i-~::---r~-1----:;-:-r--;-;;---..;.;~~rl":;;--.---.
1 Low emissions mo I 1.5 o.9 2.5
I High emissions mo 2.7 1.8 3.8 5.o 8.3 -~-----------------------------------------------------
: low emissions 2
2
1
1
3
3
0
0
i:
3
1 .. 1
0
!
2
o ..
0
9 2.8 4.0 8.1
! High emissions 4.3 5.7 9.7
13.8
16.1 i low emissions Zl40 1.8 0.9 3.0 4.5 9.2
L~~h emissions 2140 3.3 2.2 4.9 6.5 11.1 18.7
-low emissions 2150 1.9 o.9 3.3 5.1 10.6
7.3 12.7 21.5
*Most of the available climate model experiments do not extend beyond 2700. The resulting
reduction in model availability causes a small dip in projections between 2700 and 2770, as well as
a shift in uncertainty estimates (see Kopp et al. 2074). Use of 2770 projections should be done with
caution and with acknowledgement of increased uncertainty around these projections.
APPENDIX 3: SEA-UVE L RISE PROJECTIONS FOR All 12 TIDE GAUGES I 72
(SOURCE:STATE OF CALIFORNIA SEA-LEVEL RISE, 2018 UPDATE)
3904 RIVER
NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA
,a~ -NOVA
24632 SAN JUAN AVENUE, SUITE 100
DANA POINT, CALIFORNIA
Date: MAY 2019 Project No.: 3019035
PA2019-102