HomeMy WebLinkAboutOCP-85 OCP-85
4 U NTY O F LARRY PARRISH
COUNTYMASADMINISTRATIVE OFFIC fl
2 I fl00ERT E TROMPS HALL N ADMINISTRATION
A2701
10 CIVIC CENTER PLAZA,SANTA ANA,CA 92701
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1714)834.2345
COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE LO
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1 January 15, 1986 ✓q ° aa�� t g
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Ms. Sandy Gennis �t/P Qy
Planning Department >>
City of Newport Beach o
3300 W. Newport Blvd.
Newport Beach, CA 92663
Dear Ms. Gennis:
The County Administrative Office has recently published a report on the
OCP-85 projections. I've enclosed a copy for your department's use.
These RSA-level projections were developed based, in part, upon
information provided by your city. In addition to the projections, this
report contains analyses of demographic and land use trends that may be
of interest to you.
Your assistance in the data collection and review phases of developing
these projections is greatly appreciated. As always, feel free to
contact this office if we can be of assistance to you. Best wishes for
1986.
Sincerely,
o?William F. Gayk
Chief County Demographer
MAS:jm
Enclosure
4
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85
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Orange County
Preferred
Projections
1985
9 S
0CPiw85
Orange County
Preferred
Projections
1985
Board of
Supervisors
THOMAS F. RILEY, Chairman
. Fifth District
ROGER R. STANTON
First District
HARRIETT M. WIEDER
Second District
BRUCE NESTANDE
Third District
RALPH B. CLARK
Fourth District
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Countywide Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
RSAMap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
RSAProfiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
RSAA-3.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
RSAB-41 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
RSAC-43 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
RSAD-40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
RSAE-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
RSAF-39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
RSAG-42 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
RSAH-37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
RSAI-38 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
RSAJ-35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Appendices
Appendix A: Population and Housing Projection
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1
Appendix B: Employment Projection Methodology . . . . . . . . B-1
Appendix C: CAA-level Projections and Map . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1
Appendix D: RSA Profile Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1
INTRODUCTION
Background. Orange County Preferred Projections, 1985 (OCP-85)
was adopted by the Board of Supervisors on February 19, 1985, as
the County's official policy projections. OCP-85 includes
Countywide and Regional Statistical Area (RSA) population,
housing and employment projections. This is a major revision of
Orange County Preferred-III (OCP-III) , which had been the
County' s adopted population and housing projections since
September, 1981.
The Board of Supervisors, in Resolution 84-575, directed the
County Administrative Office/Forecast and Analysis Center to
review OCP-III and to determine the extent of changes necessary.
This review included the effects of the latest economic recession
on the housing industry, information provided by development
project proponents, and input provided by cities and major
landholders. Development of both the underlying assumptions and
the actual projections were coordinated through the Demographic
Projections Steering Committee.
OCP-85 expands the Orange County Preferred Projections (OCP)
series in two ways. First, the projections were extended out to
the year 2010. The previous iterations of OCP projected to the
year 2000, which is now less than 15 years in the future. This
current iteration provides a long range horizon needed for a
variety of County planning efforts. In addition, the 2010
horizon conforms with SCAG-82 Modified, which is the most recent
regional growth forecast approved by the Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG) Executive Committee. The
second enhancement is the addition of employment projections.
Employment is a key variable, especially in transportation
planning.
Contents and Format. Five-year increments of population, housing
and employment projections are presented for the County, RSAs,
and Community Analysis Areas (CAAs) . The RSA is the geographical
unit developed by SCAG. For the most part, these aggregates of
census tracts from the 55 statistical areas in the six-county
area. The CAAs, smaller groupings of census tracts which
themselves aggregate to RSAs, are 69 areas within Orange County
used for a variety of data collection and planning efforts. The
CAA-level projections, although not formally adopted by the
Board, are consistent with OCP-85. The assumptions that underlie
these projections are presented at the Countywide and RSA levels.
An assumption, as the term is used here, is a premise regarding a
condition, event or trend which, based on present policy,
knowledge or judgement, will likely occur. Consequently, if a
major land use policy were to change, relevant assumptions and
the projections themselves would warrant revisions. Demographic
1
and land use profiles are also provided at the Countywide and RSA
levels. These profiles focus on some key indicators related to
growth and development.
Finally, this report includes Appendices A and B which describe
the various methodologies and processes used to develop these
projections. Appendix C lists CAA-level projections in addition
to a Countywide map of Community Analysis Areas. Appendix b
provides RSA-level land use, population, housing, and employment
data described in the RSA profiles.
2
Countywide
Projections
OVERVIEW
Population. Orange County's population is projected to increase
from 1.9 million in 1980 to 2.8 million by 2010, or by
approximately 900, 000 persons (see Table 1) . On the average,
this is the addition of 30,000 persons annually, or a simple
average increase of 1.5 percent per year. The majority of the
growth is projected to occur in the southern regions of Orange
County. Of the 900, 000-person total population increase, 56
percent will occur in the four south Orange County RSAs (C-43,
D-40, E-44, and F-39) , while the remaining growth will occur in
north Orange County in RSAs A-36, B-411 G-42, H-37, I-38, and
J-35. Nevertheless, north Orange County will remain the more
populous region of the County. In the year 2010, this region is
projected to contain 66 percent of the total population, compared
to 34 percent for south Orange County.
Like the nation and the state, Orange County's population overall
is growing older. The median age in the County will rise from
the 1980 figure of 29.5 years to 40.6 in 2010. As a result, over
half of Orange County's population will be over 40 years of age.
This overall aging of the population is explained by a
combination of increased life expectancy, aging of the "baby
boom" population, and a relatively low fertility rate.
People born today will, on the average, live longer than people
born fifty years ago. This is primarily due to overall
improvements in health care and nutrition. Statewide, life
expectancy will rise from 74.7 years in 1980 to 76.8 by 2000,
further increasing to 77.9 years in 2020 . Life expectancy for
females will rise from 78.3 years in 1980 to 80.6 by 2020, while
male life expectancy will increase from 71.1 years in 1980 to
73. 3 by 2020. The comparison of Figures 1 through 4 reveals the
dramatic increase in the proportion of the population over 75,
especially women.
The "baby boom" is one of the most significant demographic
phenomena to occur in this country. During a period starting
shortly after World War II and ending in the early 1960s , an
unprecedented number of persons were born. Figure 1, an age
pyramid of Orange County's 1980 population, illustrates that the
largest of the five-year cohorts is comprised of those aged 15
through 34. This group, numbering 732,465 in 1980, likewise
predominated as the single largest concentration of persons in
the age distribution as almost 38 percent of the County's
population. Due to the shear size of this cohort, it is a very
dominant feature of the population. As this group ages, it will
significantly increase the average age of the County' s
population. This trend is apparent in the comparison of Figures
1 through 4 as the heavy concentration of persons in younger age
groups shifts upward in age.
5
TABLE 1
POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENTt 1980 AND 2010
1980 2010
AVERAGE
ANNUAL
NUMERICAL PERCENT PERCENT
NUMBER PERCENT NUMBER PERCENT CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULATION
North County * 1,478,851 76.5 11870,500 66.1 391,649 26.5 0.9
South County ** 453,858 23.5 960,600 33.9 506,742 111.7 3.7
Total County 1,932,709 100.0 2,831,100 100.0 898,391 46.5 1.5
HOUSING UNITS
North County * 530,324 73.5 690,900 62.8 160,576 30.3 1.0
South County ** 191,190 26.5 409,800 37.2 218,610 114.3 3.8
Total County 721,514 100.0 1,100,700 100.0 379,186 52.6 1.8
EMPLOYMENT
North County * 649,051 70.9 987,800 62.9 338,749 52.2 1.7
South County ** 226,761 29.1 582,700 37.1 3150939 118.4 3.9
Total County 915,812 100.0 1,5701500 100.0 6540688 71.5 2.4
* RSA's A-36, B-41, G-42, H-371 I-38, and J-35
** BSA's C-43, D-40, E-44, and P-39
6
Orange County's fertility .rate has been relatively stable over
recent years despite the number of births having risen steadily
in the past ten years. This increase is due mostly to the "baby
boomers" in their prime child-bearing ages. Even though the rate
is below that of the mid-1960s, this large number of people at
child-bearing ages has resulted recently in a minor baby boom
also known as an "echo" effect. Figure 2 shows a second, smaller
surge in births between 1980 and 1985, the cohort then aged 5
through 9. After 1985, there will be a continued decline in the
number of births. The net effect will be proportionately few
younger people with a greater portion of the population being
older, primarily between the ages of 40 and 69.
By the year 2010, as portrayed in Figure 4, the shape of the age
pyramid will approach the classic "beehive" configuration.
Traditionally, this implies that a population has attained zero
population growth and is approaching a rate below replacement,
discounting migration. Primarily due to the "baby boom" and
"echo" effects, about one-third of Orange County's population
will be of age to participate in the labor force. A significant
proportion of the population will be between the ages of 45 and
59, and within five to ten years, presumably be ready for
retirement. Because a greater share of the population will be
retired or already working, the number of new entrants to the
labor force will diminish.
If the pattern between 1970 and 1980 is any indication, Orange
County will also become more ethnically and racially diverse. In
1970, slightly over 10 percent of Orange County's population was
identified as non-White or Hispanic. By 1980, this segment had
increased to 20 percent. Seven racial groups had a population
greater than 10,000 in 1980. These included Blacks, Japanese,
Vietnamese, Chinese, American Indians, Koreans and Filipinos.
The Spanish origin population represented about 15 percen•t of the
County's population in 1980.
There are several reasons why this trend is likely to continue.
First, there has been a noticeable decrease in interstate
migration to California. During the 1950s and 1960s, more' people
migrated to California than any other state. During the 1970s,
however, other sunbelt states' share of interstate migration
rocketed and exceeded California's. For example, between 1960
and 1970, the combined net migration of Texas and Florida equaled
approximately 1 million persons compared to 1.7 million for
California. Between 1970 and 1980, the combined net migration
for these two states was 4 million while California' s was 1. 6
million. California' s three neighboring states of Arizona,
Nevada, and Oregon together attracted almost as many people, 1.2
million, as California. The economic and demographic factors
that caused the shift are likely to persist into the future.
7
1980 POPULATION PYRAMID
DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER
FEMALE MALE
OVER 75
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5% 3% 0 0 3% 5%
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
EOURCE: $TAT& OEPANTNENT OF FINANCE, POPULATION RESEARCH UNIT
Figure 1
1990 POPULATION PYRAMID
DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER
FEMALE MALE
OVER 75
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5% 3% 0 0 3% 5%
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
SOURCE: STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE, POPULATION RESEARCH UNIT
Figure 2
2000 POPULATION PYRAMID
DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER
FEMALE MALE
_ OVER 75
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-69
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5% 3% 0 0 3% 596
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
8"CE: STAT9 WAMTMHT OR PrIKV CK, POPULATION AKKARCH UH1T
Figure 3
2010 POPULATION PYRAMID
DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER
FEMALE MALE
OVER 75
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5% 3% 0 0 3% 5%
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
SOURCE: STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE, PDPULATION RESEARCH UNIT
Figure 4
Secondly, there has been a long term shift in the origin of
immigrants to the United States. Between 1950 and 1960, over 70
percent of the immigrants came from Europe or Canada; during the
1960s these countries accounted for 46 percent. By the 1970s
just slightly over 20 percent came from Canada and Europe while
an increasing number of immigrants have been coming from Asia and
the other American nations. The immigration from Asian nations
has jumped from 6.2 percent of total immigrants during the 1950s
to over 36 percent during the 1970s. Similarly, the influx from
the Americas has increased from 20 to 34 percent, with the
majority coming from Mexico. Not only has the percentage
shifted, but the volume of international migration has also
changed. Immigration to the U.S. has increased during this
period from about 2.5 million to about 4.5 million. As indicated
in a recent SCAG report, "Southern California: A Region in
Transition," one-half of California's growth is due to
immigration; specifically, a third of all Asians, two-fifths of
all Central Americans and 50 percent of all Mexicans immigrating
to the United States settle in California. The effect in Orange
County is clear: in 1970, nearly 85,000 persons were foreign
born, while in 1980, over 257,000 persons were foreign born.
A third reason for the expected trend toward greater ethnic and
racial diversity is the slower growth of the non-Hispanic White
population relative to other ethnic groups. Besides lower birth
rates among non-Hispanic Whites, a higher proportion of the
Blacks, American Indians, Asians, Pacific Islanders, and persons
of Spanish origin will be at prime children bearing ages over the
next 20 years. This is reflected in the age distributions of
each of these groups in 1980. Approximately 18 percent of the
non-Hispanic Whites were aged 5 to 17, compared to 24 percent of
the Blacks, 24 percent of American Indians, Eskimos and Aleuts,
25 percent of Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 27 percent of
those of Spanish origin. Thus, each of these groups should grow
at a faster rate than non-Hispanic Whites because of higher birth
rates and higher percentages reaching child-bearing age in years
to come.
Housing._ Between 1980 and 2010, housing in Orange County is
projected to increase by approximately 379,000 units, an average
of 12,600 new units per year. At a simple average increase of
1.8 percent per year, this rate is slightly higher than the rate
of population increase, due to the gradual decline in the average
household size projected Countywide. Approximately 58 percent of
the projected increase in dwelling units will be added in the
four south County RSAs. This is similar to the distribution of
projected population in the County, since new housing directly
results in added population. South County, with a 114 percent
increase in units projected over thirty years, will grow at a
significantly higher rate than the northern portion. Housing
units in the six north County RSAs are projected to increase by
only 30 percent during this period.
12
While the single family detached unit will continue to play an
important role in the County's housing market, the share of
multiple family units will increase over the projection period.
The demand for smaller and more affordable multiple family units
will increase to serve the needs of the projected smaller
households. Such units will be attractive to singles living
alone, singles sharing living quarters, single parents, childless
couples, and couples with a single child. All these groups are
expected to increase during the projection period.
Redevelopment will also be responsible for additions to the
County's housing stock during the projection period. Given the
age of the current housing stock, 22 percent of all housing units
in the County will be more than 40 years old by the year 2000.
By 2010, over half of the County's dwelling units will be more
than 40 years old. Privately instituted and government sponsored
redevelopment efforts will continue concentrating on the older
areas in north County. Selected redevelopment will also extend
to some older housing in south County. Typically, redevelopment
will recycle the old housing stock to higher densities.
Employment. The employment growth rate forecast over the
thirty-year period of these projections will be significantly
higher than the increases projected for population and housing.
The employment base of the County is projected to grow by 654,688
jobs, or nearly 71 .5 percent during this thirty year period,
while increases of 46 percent and 53 percent are projected for
population and housing respectively. This represents an average
annual increase in employment of 2.4 percent. it is interesting
to note that while the largest share of the projected increases
of population and housing occur in the south County RSAs ,
employment growth will be slightly higher in the north County
RSAs. Specifically, 338,749 jobs are projected to be added in
north County, while 315,939 jobs are projected in south County
during this period.
Orange County's employment base, like that of the state and the
nation, has been changing and is expected to do so throughout the
projection period. While the manufacturing sector will continue
to represent a significant portion of County jobs, an increasing
share of employment growth will occur in the services sector.
High technology jobs will also play an important role in the
goods-producing manufacturing sector and in information-based
jobs in the services sector.
The composition of the County's labor force is also experiencing
change. Trends in various demographic characteristics indicate
such changes according to recently completed forecasts by SCAG
and other agencies. For example, the County's population
structure is aging. The "baby boom" generation is comprised of
over half of the individuals currently employed. These people,
born between 1945 and 1965, will begin to reach retirement age as
we move into the next century. Additionally, increased longevity
may delay early retirement and may increase the frequency of
13
i
second careers. The ongoing increase of women in the labor
force is expected to continue throughout the projection period.
Trends such as these are responsible for an expanding labor
force, accompanying a projected increase in jobs.
14
COUNTYWIDE
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. The Countywide and RSA level projections do not exceed that
which would be allowable under the cities' and County's
general plans, their elements, and related identified city
and County land use and development policies.
2. The final portions of the available land in the County will
achieve first generation build-out sometime after the year
2020, varying somewhat by geographic area.
3. Significant residential redevelopment will occur in the
northwestern portion of the County throughout the period of
these projections.
4. Significant intensification of employment activity will
occur along major transportation corridors throughout the
period of these projections.
5. There will be steady private sector recycling from single
family to multi-family use in sections of the County
throughout the period of these projections.
6. There will be an increase in overall development
requirements to be satisfied as a condition of land use
approvals, but with greater use of incentives and cost
sharing techniques.
7. There will be a steady amount of developable land available
through non-renewal of agricultural preserve contracts.
Demographics
1. The population of California will continue to increase
growing to approximately 37 million by 2020, while the SCAG
region will reach 17.1 million.
2. The level of fertility will represent an average of 1.9
births per woman during her lifetime.
3. Total net migration into California will maintain an annual `
average level of 167,000 persons, through the year 2010.
4. Net migration into Orange County will average 15,200
annually through 1990, dropping to an average of 15,100
between 1991 and 1995, then 14,300 between 1996 and 2000 and
13, 900 annually after the year 2000.
15
5. The State Department of Financets (DOF) Baseline 83
population projection is consistent with the Countywide
population projection.
6. Between 1980 and 2010, the County will grow at a simple
average annual rate of 1.7 percent, or an average of
approximately 30,000 per year from both natural increase and
in-migration.
7. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will decrease from a 1980
Countywide figure of 2.68 to an average of 2.57 Countywide
by the year 2010, with a sub-area range from 2.08 to 2.92.
8. The median income in the County will continue to be above
that of the State and the nation.
9. The median age in the County will rise from 29.48 in 1980 to
40.55 in 2010.
10. An increasing proportion of in-migration will be due to the
growth of the nonwhite and Hispanic populations.
11. International migration will account for a growing
proportion of our net migration.
12. Due to the increasing number of foreign born, the
persons-per-dwelling-unit in some areas of the County will
increase.
Public Services and Facilities
1. The availability of the essential physical public services
and facilities infrastructure will not generally impair
population growth, but may slow development temporarily in
newly developing areas.
2. El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, the Santa Ana Helicopter
Facility, the Seal Beach Naval Weapons Station, and Les
Alamitos Reserve Air Station will remain in government
ownership and use until at least throughout the period of
these projections.
3. All backbone system routes identified on the Master Plan of
Arterial Highways will be built concurrent with or in
advance or development either through developer dedication,
road fee programs, or State/pederal highway funding.
Economic Base
1. There will be no prolonged national or regional depression,
but there may be recurring recessions.
16
2. There will be a continued market of home-buyers of an
appropriate income range to sustain demand for housing in
Orange County.
3. There will be a continued market of housing-renters to
sustain demand for rental housing units in Orange County.
4. Federal housing and transportation programs will continue to
facilitate migration into the region.
5. The future household income distribution will continue to be
similar to that currently observed for the period of these
projections.
6. Housing costs will increase more rapidly than the Consumer
Price Index increases, but low and moderate income housing
opportunities will continue.
Employment
1. The labor force participation rate for the County will
increase throughout the period of these projections.
2. Job growth in Orange County will proceed at a faster rate
than in the United States, California, and the Los Angeles
Basin up to the year 2000.
3. Jobs in Orange County will grow at the national rate after
the year 2000.
4. The Los Angeles Basin will account for approximately 50
percent of California's employment growth.
S. Most of the projected growth in jobs in Orange County will
be in industries whose principle output is a variety of
service activities with moderate growth in the production
sectors.
6. Total County employment will grow at a simple average annual
rate of 2.8 percent to 2000 and 0.9 percent between 2000 and
2010.
7. Countywide, there will be a balance of jobs to the labor
force.
17
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RSA
Profiles
OVERVIEW
This section contains a profile of demographic, land use, and
other growth-related trends for each RSA. A subset of these
variables are graphically displayed in relation to Countywide
rates for comparative purposes. Population, housing, and
employment projections for the RSA and each CAA within it are
presented in table form as well as map display. Finally, the
growth assumptions developed for the RSA are given. Appendix D
contains a table of the data used in these profiles and
definitions of land use categories.
21
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RSA A-36 FULLERTON
RSA A-36 is located in the northwest corner of Orange County and
includes the cities of La Habra, Fullerton, and the western
section of Brea. It is bordered on the north by Los Angeles
County and is surrounded by the Orange County cities of Buena
Park, Anaheim, Placentia, and- Brea. It extends as far south as
the Riverside Freeway and as far east as the Orange Freeway.
This area has a varied topography including coastal lowlands and
several hilly areas. Specifically, the northeastern section of.
RSA A-36 contains an extension of the Puente Hills, and the
Coyote Hills are located in northern Fullerton and southwestern
La Habra. To a large degree, continued oil production in these
hilly regions will determine the potential future development of
this RSA.
This region, similar to much of Orange County, has evolved from a
largely agrarian community to become a diverse and dynamic urban
area. Presently, of the 23,628 acres that comprise RSA A-36,
approximately one-half is devoted to residential use, 7 percent
is commercial, 9 percent is industrial, and 4 percent is open
space. Approximately 2,000 of the 4,840 non-urban acres are
currently being utilized for oil production and are expected to
remain so at least through the year 2000. Pending the
availability of land presently in oil production, urban infill
will account for much of the development in this RSA.
By the year 2010, the population in RSA A-36 is projected to
reach 202,300, which is an increase of 33,518 from the 1980
total. Among all RSAs , with the exception of RSA J-35, this area
will experience the smallest share (3 . 7 percent) of the
thirty-year projected County population increase. An average
rate of natural increase and few opportunities for in-migration
via new development accounts for this trend.
The 1980 Census documents RSA A-36 as predominantly White with a
minority population comparable to the County average. The
largest proportion of this population, approximately 16 percent
of the area's total, is Hispanic. This ethnic group is primarily
concentrated in eastern La Habra, western Brea and central
Fullerton. These aforementioned areas, both because of
in-migration and higher than average fertility rates, have
greater growth potential than the remainder of the RSA. RSA A-36
will follow the expected County pattern toward more ethnically
and racially diversity in future years.
Given the age of the current housing stock, approximately 40
percent of the housing will be older than 40 years by the turn of
the century. While present zoning regulations do not provide for
large scale residential redevelopment, it is plausible that
25
RSA A-36 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
1 I
PROPORTION --
COUNTY POPULATION 1
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1980-1984 I
FERTILITY RATE
1
PROPORTION UNDER 18
I
1
PROPORTION OVER 88
I
l
PROPORTION BLACK
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN
PROPORTION ASIAN
1
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1
1
1080-1984 1
1
I
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
I
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
1
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING 1
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
SOURCE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTMATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYNIO CENTER AND 1"0 CENSUS
26
sections of this RSA will undergo some redevelopment that will
provide new or renovated housing stock for the area. Should
future residential redevelopment take place in this RSA, a large
portion of future housing will be multiple family units.
In 1980, 62 percent of the area's housing was single family, 35
percent was multiple family and 3 percent was mobile homes. In
1980, RSA A-36 was the most affordable region in Orange County to
live because renters, who occupied 38 percent of the housing,
paid the lowest median rent ($297) in the County. The median
value of owner-occupied housing at $95,230 was comparatively low
as well.
While residential development is limited in RSA A-36, employment
will grow significantly. It is projected that employment will
increase to 125,600 in 2010 from 97. 775 in 1980, or by
approximately 28 percent. This growth will occur in existing
employment activity areas throughout the RSA.
Three significant economic are nodes located within this region.
The Brea Mall has and will continue to stimulate the economic
activities in areas adjacent to it, particularly in the
commercial and service oriented sectors. California State
University at Fullerton, flanked by commercial strips and further
southward industrial activities, forms a corridor highly
concentrated in jobs. Lastly, the Hughes Aircraft Facility and
the industrial area adjacent to the Fullerton Airport comprise
another center engaging in a combination of varied economic
activities.
In addition, electronics manufacturers and the corporate offices
of several major food-related firms here are among Orange
County' s largest employees. This multi-faceted economic base
ranks this RSA fourth Countywide in employment with ten percent
of the County's jobs contained in this region.
27
TABLE 2
RSA A-36 PROJECTIONS
2.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 39,560 41,756 41,283 41,730 42,305 42,298 42,562
2 22,074 25,024 26,157 27,534 28,846 29,974 31,693
4 44,704 49,913 53,189 54,711 56,114 57,808 60,875
5 31,976 32,712 32,502 32,894 33,554 33,754 34,565
6 30,468 31,095 30,469 30,931 31,481 31,666 32,605
RSA
Total 168,782 180,500 183,600 187,800 192,300 195,500 202,300
2.2 HOUSING
1 15,123 15,660 15,910 16,271 16,836 16,899 16,918
2 8,762 9,882 10,630 11,285 12,079 12,661 13,508
4 16,047 17,624 19,271 20,056 21,015 21,738 22,830
5 11,997 12,200 12,444 12,739 13,273 13,383 13,591
6 12,649 12,734 12,845 13,149 13,697 13,819 14,053
PSA
Total 64,578 68,100 71,100 73,500 76,900 78,500 80,900
2.3 EMPLOYMENT
1 15,568 18,193 18,905 19,699 19,764 20,250 20,472
2 11,070 13,108 15,171 160051 16,104 16,625 16,705
4 21,368 25,199 25,791 26,874 26,962 27,750 27,883
5 81946 11,300 11,320 12,768 12,810 13,000 13,063
6 40,823 45,200 45,513 46,208 46,360 47,375 47,477
RSA
Total 97,775 113,000 116,700 121,600 122,000 125,000 125,600
28
40 41 42 43 1 2226 29 32
1980
a b c d b 1990
a b c d 61 c 2000
�• d 2010
45
4
a b c d
32 3 30 30 31 33
5 6 " 11
a b c d a b c d CAA'S
within
N RSA A-36
Population Growth (in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
MUM SISA-MN OW 1SV MW '331AM 3ATIVNISINDgr AIWWO 30WVD �375lge
Moe OZ `OOOZ `066 t 1096 G 101
(spupsnogi ui) g4moiD wn Sumama
9E-V VSN N
ulyi[M ,i
�yy P S g E P S g E .
S/V Y D
9 �
T tri ET yT ET Z1 ZT
P q E
Y
acoz : p P q E
0009 : a P q E IT
oeeT % q bT
TZ li
0881 : a Z
II
_ ZT
y IT
IT9 9
1s zo z�
t6
15 16 17
�' a : 190
b : 199O
c : 2000
a b c d 2 a b c d d : 2010
26 27 28
21
46 46 47
41
4
a b c d
t3 13
5 6
a b c d abcd CARS
N within
RSA A-36
Employment Growth (in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA A-36
GROWTH ASSOMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. There will be only minimal redevelopment in this RSA before
the year 2000.
2. oil lands in this RSA will remain in production until at
least the year 2000.
3. First generation build-out of this RSA, other than the oil
lands, will occur around 1990.
4. Development will occur both as urban infill, and, to a
lesser extent, within the rough terrain available for
development.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of about 0.7 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will decrease from 2. 61 in
1980 to 2.50 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within the
RSA.
Economic Base
1. This RSA's industrial commercial base will continue to
increase over the period of these projections.
Emplloxment
1. Total employment will increase from 97, 775 in 1980 to
125,600 in 2010.
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas (i.e. , Brea Mall area, Highway 39, Fullerton
Airport, California State University Fullerton, and
Fullerton adjacent to Riverside Freeway.
32
Zi
M
J
nM
TOm
� J
00.
N
I
r Y
r V
-p
RSA B-41 CANYON
RSA B-41, referred to as the Canyon portion of. Orange County,
comprises 67,126 acres and is the second largest RSA in area.
This region, much of which is unincorporated land, is bound on
the north by Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties,
by Black Star Canyon on the east, and by Santiago Canyon Road on
the south. It includes portions of the Cleveland National
Forest, the Cities of Placentia and Yorba Linda, the eastern part
of Brea, Anaheim, and the Anaheim industrial area. Anaheim and
Orange spheres of influence also extend into this region.
A very diverse topography characterizes this area. It
encompasses the relatively flat areas of Anaheim, Placentia, and
Yorba Linda, the Anaheim Hills and Carbon Canyon to the east, and
a portion of the rugged Santa Ana Mountains to the north and
northeast.
Approximately two-thirds of RSA 41-B's total land area remains in
non-urban uses such as agriculture, resource extraction or vacant
undeveloped land. About 6 percent of RSA B-41's acreage is
devoted to oil production, and approximately 3 percent is
currently in agricultural usage. Much of this non-urban,
primarily vacant, territory may present a hindrance to
development in its present state because nearly one-third has a
slope steeper than 30 percent. Of the urbanized land in this
region, 14 percent is residential, 1 percent is commercial and 3
percent is industrial. Another 10 percent is committed to open
space and recreational use.
While this area is currently one of the least populated regions
of the County, within the next twenty-five years, RSA B-41 is
projected to reach 245, 900 persons, an increase of 129, 200 from
its 1980 population of 126,686. This is an annual increase of
3. 7 percent. The primary reason for this increase in population
will be the further residential. development in Anaheim Hills,
east Yorba Linda, east Brea, and the City of Orange's sphere of
influence.
This region is relatively "young" in terms of residential
development. Almost two-thirds of the housing in RSA B-41 was
built within the last 10 years and another 28 percent was 11 to
20 years of age. With most of the housing built within the last
20 years, only 7 percent will be older than 40 years by the year
2000. This RSA is not expected to reach first generation
build-out until after the projection years. The build-out year
will depend heavily on the availability' of land currently in oil
production.
35
RSA B-41 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
1
PROPORTION OF 1
COUNTY POPULATION 1
1
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
I
FERTILITY RATE
1
PROPORTION UNDER 1S
t
PROPORTION OVER 85
I
1
PROPORTION SLACK
I
PROPORTION SPANISH I
ORIGIN 1
I
I
PROPORTION ASIAN
i
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
I
PROPORTION I
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING 1
1
I
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION I
COMMERCIAL LAND USE I
I
I
PROPORTION I
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE 1
1
1
SOURCE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1900 Ca"UB
36
In 1980, about 75 percent of the housing stock consisted of
single family dwellings with an average of approximately four
units per acre. Although RSA B-41 has the lowest residential
density of any Orange County RSA, its 2.97 persons per dwelling
unit is above the County average. Single family housing
accommodating these larger households will still predominate the
housing stock in the future, although more higher density
development is anticipated.
Similar to the Countywide proportion of housing, RSA B-41
contains about 6 percent of the County's total employment.
Approximately 10 percent of the area's total acreage is committed
for industrial and commercial purposes , and these areas are
easily identifiable within the RSA. Primarily, the economic
activity is based along various major arterials including
Imperial Highway in eastern Brea, Orangethorpe Avenue, La Palma
Avenue, and the Riverside Freeway in east Anaheim.
Employment is projected to increase from the 1980 total of 52,974
to 94,200, an increase of 41,226 jobs in this region. While the
commercial and industrial base will not keep pace with population
growth in RSA B-41, intensification of said uses will be
pronounced in the present activity sites. In addition, a new
employment center is also being developed along the border
between Anaheim and Yorba Linda near Weir Canyon Road and the
Riverside Freeway.
37
TABLE 3
RSA B-41 PROJECTIONS
3.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
3 7,801 9,535 10,499 14,992 19,237 21,954 25,089
7 31,329 32,6ll 34,861 34,675 34,206 34,394 34,485
8 12,778 13,935 13,197 12,166 11,775 11,671 11,609
9 19,839 26,366 37,277 44,137 48,973 49,489 49,058
17 19,496 21,378 22,031 22,066 22,703 23,822 24,775
18 23,605 28,828 38,661 48,646 57,751 67,168 71,618
29 1,838 2,947 7 874 13,618 19 455 25,702 29,266
RSA
Total 116,686 135,600 164,400 190,300 214,100 234,200 245,900
3.2 HOUSING
3 3,199 3,643 4,088 5,738 7,396 8,437 9,482
7 10,924 11,600 12,698 12,839 12,958 13,099 13,248
8 3,986 41174 4,229 4,269 4,309 4,349 4,389
9 6,582 81657 12,528 15,050 170061 17,309 17,411
11 6,778 7,362 7,676 7,839 81243 8,771 9,288
18 7,235 8,679 11,869 15,177 18,417 21,507 23,108
29 572 885 2,412 4,288 6,316 8,428 9,274
RSA
Total 39,276 45,000 55,500 65,200 74,700 810900 860200
3.3 EMPLOYMENT
3 41122 5,432 6,325 71052 71930 8,316 8,572
7 5,300 6,451 7,304 7,462 7,499 7,503 7,536
8 2,782 3,598 3,840 4,018 41224 4,248 4,333
9 1,989 4,753 6,689 71312 8,820 9,776 10,657
17 34,421 40,604 42,168 430386 43,911 44,661 45,166
18 4,098 5,636 7,715 91610 10,465 12,318 14,186
29 262 1,426 2r259 3,160 3,351 3,578 3,750
RSA
Total 52,974 67,900 75,300 82,000 86,200 90,400 94,200
38
25
10
14 4 9
31 5 34 34
N
13 12 23
9 '
�
a b c d b c d \
8 a b c d 58 72
7
17 a b c d
18 a b c d
a : 1980
b : 1990 l9 29
c 2000 2 9 2 :' '
d 2010 m
a b c d
Population Growth CAA'S
(in thousands) within
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 RSA B-41
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
i
Y320* SISA"MN ONV ISY33MI '30Id:10 3AXIV•13ININUV AIWWO 3EN SO :33WOS
Lt_9 VSA otoz '000z `ossL `osst aol
uigi!m (spu-esnogi ui)
S,db'D gimoiD i!un Suiliam(i
� qE
6Z
otoz : F
000E : 7 6
Goat 9
0884 � •
8C F LI.
F Q E
e � LL F
P � 4
7i ,
PT L N
£i £i £T TT
Fi !yam
f F 0 1
+
LT LT
b £
L
6
a : 1980
b 1990
c : 2000
s
a 9 d 2010
3 i1 � �
a b c d
N 1t
9
'
, '' 3 4 4 9 6 \
ago
a b c d a b c d 8 a b c d
S 14
A2 44 10
a
34 17
11 18 ! lcd
a b c d 29
2 3 4
abcd CAA'S
a b c d
Employment Growth within
(in thousands) RSA B-41
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
SOURCE! ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA B-41
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA has a substantial amount of land available for
development, including some areas with rough terrain.
2. Major redevelopment is not expected to take place until
after the period of the projections.
3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation
build-out after the projection years.
4. The oil lands will remain in productions until at least
2000.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of 3 .7 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-until will decrease from 2.97 in
1980, to 2.85 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. This RSA will continue to have a substantial amount of land
devoted to recreational facilities.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in
newly developing areas.
3. The initial phases of the Eastern corridor will be
operational within the projection period.
Economics Base
1. The commercial and industrial base of this RSA will not keep
pace with population growth.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 54,974 in 1980 to 94,200
in 2010.
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas.
3. Significant intensification will occur along Imperial
Highway in Brea and along the Riverside Freeway in Anaheim.
42
II
55
N
56
57
59
58
60
CAA'S
within
RSA C-43
BOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE,
FORECMT AND ANALYBIB CENTER
RSA C-43 TRABUCO
Located in the northwestern section of Orange County, RSA C-43
contains most of the County's remaining rural acreage. The
region is adjacent to Riverside and San Diego Counties on the
north and east. The southern boundary runs along the San Diego
Freeway, Ortega Highway, and the San Diego Gas and Electric power
lines. Black Star Canyon Road and the City of Irvine sphere of
influence represent the region's western boundaries.
A significant portion of this RSA is unincorporated County land;
the majority is undeveloped acreage and open space, includes
O'Neill Park, Caspers Park, and a large portion of the Cleveland
National Forest. Developed areas range from the rural
communities of Silverado Canyon, Modjeska Canyon and Trabuco
Oaks, to densely populated suburban communities such as E1 Toro,
Lake Forest, and Mission Viejo. Also included in this area are
the large estates of Coto de Caza and the sites of future planned
communities, some of which are in the first phases of
development. These newly developing communities include Rancho
Santa Margarita, Serrano Highlands, Rancho Trabuco, Rancho de Los
Alisos, Saddleback Meadows, Glenn Ranch, Robinson Ranch, and
Whiting Ranch. Small portions of the Cities of San Juan
Capistrano and San Clemente are also located in this RSA.
With a total of 151,000 acres within its boundaries, RSA C-43
ranks as Orange County's largest RSA. In 1980, 48 percent of the
land area in the region was designated as open space, 38 percent
consisted of vacant land, 5 percent was residential and 5 percent
was in agricultural use. Less than 1 percent was designated
commercial and industrial, while the remaining 3 percent was
classified as miscellaneous other uses.
In 1980, the population of RSA C-43 totaled 95,954, comprising 5
percent of the County's total population. This area is projected
to experience significant growth by the year 2010. During the
forecast period, the area's population is projected to increase
by 153 percent, adding 146,346 residents. The region's
population will reach a figure of 242,300 by 2010, representing 9
percent of the County's total population.
Similarly, the housing stock in this area is projected to
increase by 184 percent during the forecast period, from a figure
of 32,885 in 1980 to 93,500 in 2010. While a substantial amount
of land is developable, much of the terrain consists of steep
hillsides and rugged canyons. Low density development therefore
predominates in the area. With an average of 4.23 dwelling units
per residential acre in 1980, this RSA represented one of the
least densely developed areas in the County. As mentioned above,
this RSA does contain several densely populated suburban
45
RSA C 43 PROFILE
i
COUNTY AVERAGE
i
PROPORTION OF I
COUNTY POPULATION I
I
1
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1960-1984
FERTILITY RATE i
1
I
PROPORTION UNDER 18
1
PROPORTION OVER eb
I
I
PROPORTION BLACK j
I
PROPORTION SPANISH !
ORIGIN 1
I
I
PROPORTION ASIAN 1
I
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE
1080-1984
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING I
1
PROPORTION I
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION I
COMMERCIAL LAND USE I
1
I
PROPORTION I
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE I
I
1
SOURCE, ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1"0 CENSUS
46
communities, and this type of development will become more
prevalent as the newer planned communities are constructed.
However, RSA C-43 will continue to contain significant open
space.
In 1980, this region contained slightly over 2 percent of the
County's total employment base. Employment is projected to
increase by 196 percent during the forecast period, from 21,204
jobs in 1980 to a figure of 62,800 in 2010. This represents the
largest growth rate in employment of all the County's RSAs during
this period. In the year 2010, this RSA. will contain over 8
percent of the County's total jobs. The high growth rate
projected for employment in the area is primarily the result of
commercial and industrial development projected in the Rancho
Santa Margarita and Whiting Ranch planned communities.
47
TABLE 4
RSA C-43 PROJECTIONS
4.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
55 1,254 1,350 1,913 2r522 3,090 3,680 4,679
56 1,594 5,206 13,852 20,512 29,556 31,403 32,581
57 24,139 25,136 25,092 25,123 24,973 25,000 25,537
58 65,499 79,535 . 90,549 95,691 95,529 94,967 95,022
59 1,866 4,075 14,242 24,853 39r791 55,389 70,809
60 1,602 1,798 2,852 5,599 8,161 10,861 13,672
RSA
Total 95,954 117,100 148,500 174,300 201,100 221,300 242,300
4.2 HOUSING
55 596 620 900 1,200 1,500 lr800 2,300
56 492 1,600 4,600 61900 10,600 11,600 12,100
57 8,013 8,271 8,460 8,560 8,660 8,760 9,020
58 22,608 27,503 32,387 34,275 34,713 35,251 35,480
59 704 1,384 51212 9,444 15,776 22r508 29rD40
60 472 622 1,041 2,121 3,251 4,381 5,560
RSA
Total 32,885 40,000 52,600 62,500 74,500 84,300 93,500
4.3 EMPLOYMENT
55 169 250 450 650 850 950 1,050
56 81 194 1,322 10,000 16,000 17,000 18,000
57 4,465 4,028 4,628 4,928 5,228 5,500 5,700
58 14,558 17,078 18,200 21,000 24,000 24,500 25,000
59 1,827 1,900 2,500 4,822 7,022 8,850 10,550
60 104 350 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
RSA
Total 21,204 23,800 27r600 42,400 54,600 58,800 62,800
48
5
a b c d
55
N30 33
14 96 95 71
2 ' 91
a c d
56 40
24 25 25 26
14
111 57 . 11
a b c
59
a c d
58
a 1980
b 1990
6 0 c ' 2000
d 2010
14
CAA'S abed
a b c d
within
RSA C-43 Population Growth
(in thousands)
SOURCE: ORANOE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE,
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
55
29
« i= wool
Na b c d
5
O5 � 16
a c d 35
�y 35
g 8
q 9 ✓6 32 5
57 • �
23 59 a b c d
a b c d
IIM � �
a b c d
58
e 1980
b : 1990
O : 2000
d 2010
60
6
CAR'S a b c d
within
RSA C-43 Dwelling Unit Growth
(in thousands)
SWACE: ORANDE COUNTY AOMIN29TRATWVE OFFICE, n n ry �y
FORECAST AND ANAIYWO CENTER for 1980, 1980, 2000v 2010
55
qz O,s 0,9 1
a b c d
N S 113
1
a b c d
56
28
4 S S S IB n
MIN 57 5
a b c 11
59 shad
a b c d
58
a 1980
b 1990
c 2000
60 d ° 2010
0 — 0 N
CAA'S a b a d
within
RSA C-43 Employment Growth
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. (in thousands)
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
RSA C-43
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA has a significant amount of land available for
development.
2. No significant redevelopment will occur in this RSA until
well after the projection years.
3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation
build-out by the year 2025.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of about 5.1 percent.
2. The persona-per-dwelling-unit in this RSA will decrease from
2.92 in 1980, to 2.59 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1 . This RSA will continue to have a significant amount of
recreational facilities.
2. The circulation system in this RSA will expand in increments
up to and beyond the year 2010.
3. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in
newly developing areas.
4. Initial phases of the Foothill corridor will be operational
within the period of these projections.
Economic Base
1. This RSA will experience a strengthening of its industrial
base.
2. The generally favorable commercial base of the RSA will
improve over time.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 21,204 in 1980 to 62,800
in 2010.
52
2. Significant intensification of employment will occur along
the Foothill corridor in Whiting Ranch and adjacent
employment' areas, and in Plano Trabuco. The Mission Viejo
Mall area will also intensify.
53
i
62
a
61
63
64
65
N
CAA'S 68
within b6 67
RSA D-40
69
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE.
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER '.
RSA D-40 SOUTH COAST
This is the southernmost coastal RSA and it encompasses 57, 754
acres. Its northern boundary extends along the northern border
of Laguna Beach, following Los Trancos Canyon as far as the city
limits of Ixvine. The area then extends along the coast from
Laguna Beach to San Clemente. RSA D-40 includes the
unincorporated communities of Laguna Hills , Laguna Niguel, South
Laguna, Capistrano Beach, Dana Point, Aliso Viejo, and the City
of San Juan Capistrano.
This region is dominated by the Peninsular Range and includes
8,600 acres of hilly terrain having a slope greater than 30
percent. While 70 percent of the region's land use is non-urban
and a significant portion of territory is available for
development, the region is characterized by rough terrain,
geologic problems or environmental sensitivity. Twenty percent
of the total acreage is devoted to residential use with the
remainder of urbanized usage comprised of 3 percent commercial, 1
percent industrial, and 3 percent open space and recreational.
Significant open space will continue to exist along the Irvine
Coast and surrounding the City of Laguna Beach.
RSA D-40 attracts many individuals in pursuit of recreational and
leisure activities. This area offers many recreational
opportunities, including Crystal Cove State Park, State Undersea
Park, Aliso Beach Park, Doheny Beach State Park, and San Clemente
State Park.
In 1980, the population total was 134,696 and is expected to
reach 279,800 by the first decade of the twenty-first century.
This population increase within RSA D-40. is a gain 145, 104
persons by the year 2010, which is the largest numerical increase
of all the Orange County RSAs. The majority or 71 percent of
this increase will occur in CAAs 63 and 64. These two CAAs
contain wholly or partially the planned communities of Alicia
Creek, Aliso Viejo, Beacon Hill, Bear Brand, Colinas de
Capistrano, and Country Village.
RSA D-40 is characterized by a high proportion of elderly
residents. in 1980, 23 percent of the population was over the
age of 65. The presence of a large elderly population, including
those from Rossmoor Leisure World, may explain the region's death
rate of 11 deaths per 1,000 persons , the highest in the County.
The majority of the housing in this RSA was built in the last 20
years. In 1980, one-half .of the housing stock was 10 years old
or newer, while 30 percent was between 11 and 20 years old. Only
10 percent of the housing was 21 to 30 years old and 10 percent
was older than 30 years. First generation build-out is not
• 57
RSA D-40 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
1
PROPORTION OF I
COUNTY POPULATION I
I
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
I
FERTILITY RATE I
I
f
I
PROPORTION UNDER 18
I
PROPORTION OVER 88
I
PROPORTION BLACK
i
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN 1
I
1
PROPORTION ASIAN I
1
I
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
1
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
1
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING
1
PROPORTION i
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE I
I
PROPORTION 1
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE 1
1
I
SOURCE, ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFrICEs ItORECAET ANO ANALYOIV CENTER AND /100 Cam"
58
anticipated until after the projection years ; but some renovation
or redevelopment will probably occur at the turn of century when
20 percent of the housing units will be over 40 years old.
RSA D-40 's persons-per-dwelling-unit ratio of 2.03 was the
County's lowest. Underlying the small average household size of
RSA D-40 is the considerable number of single person households
in the area. Over 30 percent of the households contain one
person compared to 21 percent for the County as a whole. The
large elderly population in this RSA contributes to the small
household size. Average household size is projected to increase
slightly in RSA D-40, the only instance in which an increase is
anticipated. Currently, 40 percent of the housing units are
multiple family with 57 percent single family dwellings and the
remaining 3 percent mobile homes. In future years, the
proportion of multiple family units will increase.
Four percent of the total County employment is located in this
RSA. Together with the recreation-related activities along the
coast, Saddleback Community Hospital, Endevco, Laguna Hills Mall,
Mission Viejo Mall, and South Coast Medical Center provide the
major employment centers for the area. Numerous economic
activities take place along the San Diego Freeway and will
develop along the future San Joaquin Hills Transportation
Corridor, along the Moulton Corridor and in Aliso Viejo. Total
employment will increase significantly in RSA D-40 from the 1980
base of 40,450 to 109,900 by the year 2010. This increase of
69, 450 is impressive, but the major source employment for this
region will remain the industrial and corporate complexes in
adjacent RSAs.
59
TABLE 5
RSA D-40 PROJECTIONS
5.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
61 19,301 20,134 21,433 22,953 23,741 24,629 25,528
62 30,854 34,684 37,260 38,739 41,180 38,928 38,726
63 5,646 12,326 25,137 41,045 55,935 65,705 71,199
64 17,818 24,782 30,960 39,589 45,941 51,419 55,251
65 4,499 4,929 4,883 4,922 4,903 4,907 4,871
66 5,012 5,368 5,514 5,872 5,996 6,113 6,195
67 4,988 5,334 5,651 5,927 6,044 6,201 6,316
68 23,444 27,655 28,666 30,410 31,461 32,696 33,768
69 23,134 25,988 28,296 30,943 33,199 35,702 37,946
RSA
Total 134,696 161,200 187,800 220,400 248,400 266,300 279#800
5.2 HOUSING
61 10,210 10,579 11,373 12,328 12,997 13,644 14,265
62 17,765 19,578 21,606 22,700 23,200 23,500 23,700
63 2,106 4,405 9,815 16,122 22,076 26,115 28,625
64 7,467 98909 12,733 16,452 19,416 21,957 23,973
65 2,647 2,753 2,797 2,847 2,885 2,918 2,942
66 2,627 2,800 2,950 3,175 3,300 3,400 3,500
67 2,310 2,356 2,556 2,706 21806 2,906 3,006
68 9,655 11,357 12,067 12,927 13,637 14,337 15,029
69 11,285 12,363 13,803 15,243 16,683 18,123 19,560
RSA
Total 66,072 76,100 89,700 104,500 117,000 126,900 134,600
5.3 EMPLOYNEmT
61 8,136 7,666 8,380 8,500 8,650 8,800 8,902
62 8,304 11,939 14,019 17,170 19,170 19,670 20,222
63 31308 3,448 8,834 19,388 30,603 36,433 41,314
64 2,886 3,382 5,527 8,027 91027 9,627 10,111
65 1,746 1,840 1,865 1,890 1,925 1,965 11990
66 2,183 2,250 21300 2,350 21550 20750 2,920
67 1,192 1,534 1,634 1,734 1,834 1,914 1,984
68 7,040 7,162 71662 8,462 91162 9,662 9,957
69 5,655 5,979 7 479 8,979 10,479 11,579 12,500
RSA
Total 40,450 45,200 $7,700 76,500 930400 102,400 109,900
60
- 1
37 41 39
62 a b c d
56
61 19 2124
26 63 25
I I I 1
a b c d ■ '
a b d
55
a : 1980 46 64
b 1990 3
20 4 5 5
�
d 20100 a d
d a b d 2 34
25
65 abcd I
'
a b c d
5 6 N
R
CAA S a b {��c d V V 6 2321 3 38
within 66 67 d I IRSA D-40 ab c d
Population Growth 69
(in thousands)
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE.FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER for 1980, 1990, 2000,
000, 2010
]"0 1 0
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19 20
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62 a b
41
3
61 11 � � 63
a b c d
9
3
a c d
a : 1980 64
b 1990 2
O 2000 a M 9 10
d 2010 a b c ■ ; ' 7
65 e
a b c d I I I A&
a b O d N
2
CAA'S a d VL $ 1
within
66 67 b c d 10
I I ' '
RSA D-40 a b e d
Employment Growth
(in thousands) 69
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE.
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
RSA D-40
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA will have a significant amount of land available
for development throughout the period of these projections.
2. Major redevelopment will not occur in this RSA until after
the projection years.
3. First generation build-out of this RSA will not occur until
after the projection years.
4. Much of the land potentially available for development in
this RSA is characterized by rough terrain, geologic
constraints or environmental sensitivity.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of about 3.6 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will increase from 2.04 in
1980, to 2.08 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. This RSA will continue to have substantial recreational
resources.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be generally sufficient to meet demands
within the RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded
in newly developing areas.
3. Initial operation of the San Joaquin Hills Corridor will
occur by 1995.
Economic Base
1. The major source of employment for this RSA will be the
industrial complexes in adjacent RSAs.
2. There will be additional industrial and commercial
development in this RSA.
64
_. I
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 40,450 in 1980 to
109,900 in 2010.
2. Employment centers will develop in Aliso Viejo and
employment areas adjacent to the San Joaquin Hills Corridor
and the Moulton Corridor.
65
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RSA E-44 EL TORO
RSA E-44 is located in south central Orange County. It includes
the portion of the City of Irvine north of the San Diego Freeway,
both the E1 Toro and Tustin Marine Corps Air Stations, a small
portion of east Tustin, and the unincorporated land between the
Irvine city limits and Santiago Canyon Road. The land is
relatively flat in the southern half of this RSA, while the
terrain steepens moving north toward Santiago Canyon Road.
Current urban uses of land in this RSA are minimal: they include
6 percent in residential use and another 7 percent in commercial
and industrial uses. However, the long term potential for growth
and development is this RSA is substantial. As of 1980, over 50
percent of the RSA consisted of vacant land or land in
agricultural use. A substantial portion of these vacant and
agricultural lands are in Agricultural Preserve, although the
Preserve status has not been renewed on several thousand acres,
assuring available land for short- and mid-term development.
Land use designations for much of this RSA are contained in the
general plans for the Cities of Irvine and Tustin.
RSA E-44's population is projected to increase from approximately
53,000 at the time of the 1980 Census to slightly over 181,000 by
the year 2010. Although RSAs B-41, C-43, and D-40 are projected
to add more population during this same period, the relative
magnitude of RSA E-44's growth, 245 percent, will be the largest.
During the earlier part of the projection period, a majority of
the growth will occur in CAA 51, and later CAA 52 will
predominate as the major growth center in this RSA.
This RSA has been a principal County growth center in recent
years. Its growth has been stimulated almost entirely by new
residential development. According to the 1980 Census, the
majority of its residents had moved to the area during the
preceding five years. Of those persons living in RSA E-44 in
1980, only 17 percent had lived in the same house
since 1975. During the same period, the population nearly
doubled as did the housing stock. It is expected that most
growth in this RSA will follow a similar pattern for some time to
come: in-migration associated with residential development.
The last decennial Census recorded that, since 1975, 32 percent
of those residing in RSA E-44 had moved there from some other
residence within Orange County, and 46 percent migrated from
elsewhere in the country including other California counties and
other states and territories. Slightly over 4 percent of the
population migrated from abroad during the same five-year period.
In addition, 13 percent of the population is foreign born. These
last two figures are both above the County average, indicating
69
RSA E-44 PROFILE
COUNT
Y AVERAGE
PROPORTION OF I
COUNTY POPULATION
I
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
FERTILITM RATE
PROPORTION UNDER 18
PROPORTION OVER 88
PROPORTION BLACK
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN
PROPORTION ASIAN
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE
1980-1984
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING I
I
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE I
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY AONI NISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AM ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1M00 gem"
70
this RSA attracts an above average number of persons from abroad.
This may account for the fact that this RSA had the highest
proportion of Asians (7 percent) of all RSAs. This RSA also
contains the highest proportion of Blacks (4 percent) . The
Blacks in this RSA are concentrated in CAAs 49 and 54, which
contain the Tustin and El Toro Marine Corps Air Stations,
suggesting an association with the military bases.
The population under 18 is near the County average at about 30
percent, while the percent population over 65 years of age (2. 6
percent) is considerably below the County average of 8 percent.
This helps explain a birth rate which is slightly above the
County's and a death rate considerably below the County's rate.
It is expected that the rate of natural increase will remain
slightly above the County rate, but due to a small population
base, in-migration associated with new residential development
will be the dominant growth factor for some time to come.
As indicated above, residential development will be the major
contributing factor to this RSA' s population increase. Between
1980 and 2010, nearly 52,000 dwelling units will be added to this
RSA's housing stock. This is nearly a 300 percent increase.
Redevelopment should not play i� major role in this increase,
because most housing is relatively new. Even by the year 2000,
only 10 percent of the housing will be 40 or more years old.
As of the 1980 Census, this RSA had the second highest proportion
of single family units at 79 percent. However, like much of the
County, multiple family units account for a larger portion of the
total housing stock. Between 1980 and 1984, multiple family
dwelling units increased from 17 to 20 percent while single
family dwelling units decreased from 79 to 77 percent of the
total housing stock. It is anticipated that this trend will
continue into the future.
There will be considerable employment growth in this RSA. RSA
E-44 contains three of the County's major employment centers,
including the Irvine Industrial Complex West, the Irvine
Industrial Complex East, and the Irvine Business Center. In
addition, the proposed biomedical center will be located in this
RSA. Over 114,000 jobs will be added between 1980 and 2010,
representing a 188 percent increase. The majority o the growth,
97,000 jobs, will be in CAAs 49, 51, and 53 which contain the
previously mentioned employment centers. Employment growth in
CAA 52 will drop initially as agricultural employment declines,
but will increase as job opportunities in schools, retail
outlets, restaurants, and related activities develop to serve the
growing population.
71
TABLE 6
RSA E-44 PROJECTIONS
6.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
49 11670 5,150 5,150 51150 50150 5,150 51150
51 31,347 40,925 52,372 64,055 73,111 76,606 80,367
52 11,787 16,087 26,640 43,657 62,501 77,106 87,745
53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
54 7,760 7,838 7,838 7,S38 7,838 7,838 7,838
RSA
Total 52,564 70,000 92000 120,700 148,600 166,700 181,100
6.2 HOUSING
49 136 874 874 874 874 874 874
51 11,401 15,028 19,597 24,143 28,340 29,822 31,513
52 4,519 6,142 10,373 17,027 25,030 31,048 35,557
53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
54 1,257 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256
RSA
Total 17,313 23,300 32,100 43,300 55,500 63000 69,200
6.3 EMPLOYMENT
49 45,897 51,859 67,000 73,946 78,546 82,546 87,000
51 4,176 9,054 17,380 18,880 20,380 22,680 24,000
52 5,391 2,000 21800 6,000 8,000 10,000 13,000
53 1,052 13,000 23,633 30,187 33,187 34,687 36,800
54 2,176 3,287 3,287 61287 9,287 11,287 12,000
RSA
Total 58,692 79,200 114,100 135,300 149,400 161,200 172,800
72
Population Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
aS
52 63
27
eu
T3
2 5 5 5 1 ' N
M E a b c d
a b c d 2
49 31
a b c d CAA'S
54 noun
51 a b c d _within
a : 1980 0 0 0 0 RSA E-44
b : 1990 a b c d
c : 2000 53
d : 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE,
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
U3DM BISAWW aW ISV33MOA
'30Ijo 36uvvISINIM01/ AIMO7 30WHO ;33WMS
otoa : P
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9f
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(spu-esnogl ui)
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Employment Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
a7
79 13
67 5 2' i N3
a b c d
46
N
a b c d 24
20
4917 q 12
9
a b c d 33 37 54 2 3 CAA'S
51 4 a b c d within
RSA E-44
a 1980
b : 1990 53
c 2000
d : 2010 a b c d SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE.
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA E-44
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
I
Use of Land
1. Substantial portions of this RSA are available for
development.
2. As development continues in this RSA, the land available for
development will be characterized by rough terrain.
3. Significant redevelopment will not occur in this RSA until
well after the year 2010,
4. First generation build-out of this RSA will not occur until
after the period of these projections.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of slightly more than 8 percent.
2. The persona-per-dwelling-unit in this RSA will decrease from
3.04 in 1980 to 2.62 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. E1 Toro Marine Corps Air Station and the Santa Ana
Helicopter Facility will remain in government ownership and
use during the period of these projections.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be generally sufficient to meet demands
within this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded
in newly developing areas.
3. The initial phases of the Eastern and Foothill corridors
will be operational within the projection years.
Economic Base
1. This RSA will continue to have a strong industrial base.
2. The generally weak commercial base will improve.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 58,692 in 1980 to
172,800 in 2010.
76
2. Significant intensification of employment will occur in the
Irvine industrial complexes.
3. The central Irvine area will experience considerable growth
in service sector employment.
77
N
44
48
45 50
46 47
CAA'S
within
RSA F-39
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADNIXISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA F-39 CENTRAL COAST
This RSA includes the Cities of Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, and
Irvine's southern portion. It extends from the Santa Ana River
to Crystal Cove along the coastline, and north to the Costa Mesa
city limits and San Diego Freeway. RSA F-39 ' s topography is
diverse; it includes an extensive marine plateau in the west,
both upper and lower Newport Bay, and a section of the gently
rolling San Joaquin Hills to the east.
This area, comprising 39,802 acres, is characterized by several
distinct geographical areas, each with its own character. The
City of Costa Mesa and the older areas of Newport Beach have
developed over the last forty to fifty years and have the
greatest potential for intensification of activity. These areas
have a variety of mixed uses and densities of development. The
western and northern portions of the RSA are heavily developed,
while the southeastern section, the Irvine Coast, contains most
of the RSA's non-urbanized acres. Two open space areas of
regional importance are 'Newport Bay and the Irvine Coast. In
1980, 25 percent of the urbanized area was residential, 7 percent
commercial, 4 percent industrial, and 7 percent open space, with
42 percent of the acreage remaining undeveloped.
The population in 1980 was 170,644, and it is projected to grow
at an average annual rate of. 1.7 percent to reach 257,400 by the
year 2010. The majority of this population growth will occur in
the southern portions of this RSA where further residential
development is expected.
In 1980, this RSA had the highest ratio of dwelling units to
residential acres at 7 .2, indicating an intensive use of
residential space. This is likely due to the fact that this RSA
had the highest share of multiple family dwelling units in the
County at 43 percent. In addition, along the coastal fringes,
housing densities increase dramatically as compared to the inland
areas such as Costa Mesa. The remainder of the housing stock was
55 percent single family dwellings and 2 percent mobile homes.
An average of 2;27 persons lived in each dwelling unit in 1980.
The region had the largest proportion of renter-occupied dwelling.,—
units at 48 percent in 1980, and the median rent paid was $371,
the third highest in -the County. The median housing cost,
$148,040., was the highest of all the RSAs.
It is projected that at the turn of the century, almost one-third
of the housing will be older than 40 years, but no major
residential redevelopment is expected to take place in this RSA
until after the year 2010. As of 1980, more than two-thirds of
the housing stock had been built in. the preceeding 20 years.
81
RSA F 39 PROFILE �
COUNTY AVERAGE
l
PROPORTION OF I
COUNTY POPULATION
POPULATION GROWTH RATE I
1980-1984 I
I
I
FERTILITY RATE 1
i
i
i
PROPORTION UNDER 18 i
i
PROPORTION OVER 88
1
PROPORTION BLACK
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN I
I
PROPORTION ASIAN I
I
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE I
I
1980-1984
t
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
I
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AM 1900 COWS
I 92
About 20 percent was between 21 and 30 years old, and 11 percent
was older than 30 years.
While the area contains 9 percent of. the County's population, it
offers 16 percent of the total County employment, ranking second
in employment among all the RSAs. There are several regionally
significant activity centers within this RSA, namely: Newport
Center and adjacent areas; South Coast Plaza and surrounding
employment areas; John Wayne Airport and the surrounding
commerical and industrial areas; the University of California,
Irvine and the nearby town center; and Ford Aerospace and
Communications Corporation.
The future opening of the San Joaquin Hills Transportation
Corridor should both enhance accessibility to these activity
centers as well as intensify the commercial-industrial base of
the surrounding environs. In addition to the present activity
sites, future employment areas along the coast and lands adjacent
to the San Diego Freeway in east Irvine offer further potential
for development. Intensification of commercial-industrial uses
near South Coast Plaza, the Harbor Boulevard and Newport
Boulevard strips, John Wayne Airport, and Newport Center will add
to the employment base in the region. As a result, the economic
base of RSA F-39 should flourish. In 1980, employment in the RSA
was 146,415; it is projected to gain 90 ,785 jobs by the year
2010. These 237,200 jobs, a 62 percent increase, will constitute
15 percent of the County's total.
83
it
TABLE 7
RSA P-39 PAWECTTONS
7.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
44 47,679 50,558 56,033 56,767 56,064 56,126 56,012
45 40,342 43,050 44,434 46,320 47,200 48,289 48,603
46 35,824 37,238 37,295 38,600 39,630 40,566 40,793
47 26,721 29,136 32,318 35,794 37,945 38,732 39,169
48 0 0 510 507 505 507 507
50 20,078 28,118 39,410 48,912 57,956 65,880 72,316
RSA
Total 170,644 188,100 210,000 226,900 239,300 250,100 257,400
7.2 HOUSING
44 17,906 18,624 21,121 21,621 21,721 21,971 22,071
45 18,479 19,264 20,319 21,374 220129 23,089 23,844
46 19,536 19,832 20,032 20,772 21,412 21,912 22,162
47 12,171 12,814 14,460 16,339 17,408 17,769 18,069
48 0 0 260 260 260 260 260
50 6,828 9,466 13,408 17,134 20,670 23,699 26,094
RSA
Total 74,920 800000 89,600 971500 103,600 108t700 112,500
7.3 EMPLOYMENT
44 27,965 43,150 56,284 56,655 57,585 62,835 67,312
45 17,902 19,573 20,573 21,573 22,273 22,873 23,473
46 19,195 19,958 20,458 20,958 21,456 21,958 22,548
47 25,966 27,500 28,500 29,000 29,200 29,350 29,500
48 46,364 60,868 63,942 71,863 72,535 73,733 74,800
50 9,023 9,851 10,943 14,551 16,751 18,251 19,657
RSA
Total 146,415 1800900 200,700 214,600 219,800 229,000 237,200
84
J&
N
56 56 56
4H
44
4447
a b c 48
49
40
0 05 0.5 05 T Z
a b c d
58
39
a b c d45
�� 50
36 37 40 41 '
a b c d
47 38 9
27 'Z
46 a b c d '
a b c d
CAA'S
Population Growth
within a : 1980 (in thousands)
RSAF-39 b : 1990
c : 2000 for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER d : 2010
V31N" SIBA'YfW ONV 1SV03WId •30Id.0 3AI1VVISININOV ALW103 30MVWI •3]WM
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zz zz Tz
N 73 75
67 64
56 5B
47
44 /1
21 22 23 48
11
2a a b c d ,
a b c d
a b c d 20
17
45 9 " 50
1s 20 21 22 a b c d
2S 29 3
26
a : 1980 4746
b : 1990
c : 2000
d : 2010 a b c d
a b c d
CAA'S Employment Growth
within (in thousands)
RSA F-39 for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA F-39
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA has land available for both .residential and
employment development in the south portion.
2. No major redevelopment is expected to take place in this RSA
until after the year 2010.
3. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually
occur in the northern portion of this RSA through private
sector recycling.
4. First generation build-out of this RSA will occur around the
year 2010.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of about 1 .7 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will increase slightly from
2.28 in 1980, to 2.29 in 2010,
Public Services and Facilities
1. John Wayne Airport will remain as the principal civilian
airport in the County.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
this RSA.
3. This RSA will maintain a substantial number of recreational
facilities.
4. initial operation of. the San Joaquin Hills Transportation
Corridor will occur prior to 1995.
Economic Base
1. This RSA will continue to have a strong commercial and
industrial base.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 146,415 in 1980 to
237,200 in 2010.
88
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing activity areas
as well as future employment areas along the coast and lands
adjacent to the San Diego Freeway in east Irvine.
3. Significant intensification will occur by South Coast Plaza,
Harbor Boulevard area, Newport Boulevard area, John Wayne
Airport and Newport Center.
89
i
0
26 27 28
43
38 39
40 42
41
CAA S
within
N RSA G-42
B"M ORANDE C"TV ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE FORECAST AND ANALYBIB CENTER
RSA G-42 SANTA ANA
RSA G-42 is located in central Orange County and includes the
Cities of Santa Ana, Tustin, Orange and Villa Park. The
western portion of the region is predominantly flat, while the
eastern area consists of rolling hills.
The land area of this RSA covers 42,038 acres. In 1980, the
largest share of this acreage, 55 percent, was devoted to
residential development, with 10 percent to commercial use, 10
percent to industrial use, and 4 percent to agricultural use.
An additional 3 percent of the land in this region was
reserved open space, with 8 percent vacant, and 10 percent
designated for various other land uses'.
Population in the region is projected to increase from a
figure of 377,316, recorded in the 1980 Census, to 488, 800 in
the year 2010, or a 30 percent increase'. Containing one-fifth
of the County's total population in 1980, this is the most
populous RSA. While its share of the County's total
population will decrease to 17 percent in 2010, it will remain
the largest RSA in population throughout the projection
period.
Several characteristics of this area' s population, as recorded
in 1980, distinguished it from the other County RSAs. RSA
G-42 had the highest fertility rate at 88 births per 1000
women aged 15 to 44. This region contained the highest
concentration of residents of Spanish origin at 29 percent and
foreign born residents at 22 percent. Thus, the high
fertility rates within RSA G,-42 may be explained by the
sizeable ethnic minority populations within the area.
Essentially, the Hispanic population is clustered in north and
central Santa Ana throughout four. CAAs: 38, 39, 40, and 41 .
In 1985, these four subregions are projected to contain 56
percent of the RSA's total populace, increasing to 57 percent
by the year 2010. This represents a 20 percent increase in
population in these CAAs from 1985 to 2010 compared to the 16
percent increase overall for an RSA already extensively
developed. With a total increase of 47,528 persons by the end
of the projection years, this area will contain the greatest
concentration of population within RSA G-42.
The housing stock in the region is projected to increase by
37,297 dwelling units between 1980 and 2010. The area
contained the most dwelling units of all RSAs in 1980, at
130,103, and this distinction will remain throughout the
forecast period. Total housing units will reach 167, 400 by
2010 or 15 percent of all the County's housing.
93
i
RSA G-42 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
PROPORTION OF .
COUNTY POPULATION
I
POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1
1960-1964 I
I
FERTILITY RATE
PROPORTION UNDER 16
PROPORTION OVER 66
PROPORTION BLACK
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN
PROPORTION ASIAN i
1
I
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE I
1960-1664
1
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
PROPORTION I
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1960 CENSUS
94
I
This RSA contains some of Orange County' s oldest housing
stock, as well as a wide diversity, ranging from the high
density developments in Orange and downtown Santa Ana to the
hilltop estates of Lemon Heights and Cowan Heights. In 1980,
about one-third of the housing in this RSA was less than 10
years old, approximately one-third was 11 to 20 years old,
one-fifth was 21 to 30 years old and 13 percent was older than
30 years. Currently, the CAA 40 and 41 sections of Santa Ana
are undergoing redevelopment. Typical of current construction
trends elsewhere, a large portion of the emerging housing
stock is multiple family units. By the year 2000, one-third
of the housing stock in this RSA will be older than 40 years
and therefore further redevelopment should be expected in this
area. Consequently, housing density should increase
particularly in the City of Santa Ana.
As is the case with population and housing, RSA G-42 contains
the most employment of all the RSAs, with nearly one-quarter
of all Orange County jobs located in this region. In 1980,
there were 207,023 workers employed in the area. By the year
2010, employment in the RSA is projected to grow by 129,077,
or 62 percent, to reach a figure of 336,100 . Several factors
explain the area's prominence as an employment center, such as
its large population base and its central location. Also,
this RSA lies at the center of the County's transportation
network, with the Santa Ana, Newport-Costa Mesa, Orange, and
Garden Grove Freeways all passing through the region. Major
employment and retail centers include ITT Cannon Electric, UCI
Medical Center, the Santa Ana Civic Center, The City
retail/commercial center, Saint Joseph' s Hospital, the Orange
Mall, and Anaheim Stadium and its adjacent areas.
95
i
TABLE 8
RSA G-42 PROJECTIONS
8.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
26 17,153 19,018 20,111 20,176 20,117 20,016 22,133
27 26,283 27,279 26,841 26,941 26,754 26,599 27,349
28 56,277 59,787 62,811 63,889 65,748 67,029 68,125
30 7,590 7,764 7,901 7,873 71753 7,691 7,601
38 33,942 38,270 39,778 41,965 43,649 45,762 46,531
39 24,516 26,935 28,029 28,422 28,571 30,548 32,357
40 96,530 108,196 119,141 121,410 122,397 125,670 128,786
41 53,421 591182 64,137 68,914 70,451 71,005 72,437
42 49,695 51,077 50,057 50,231 49,922 49,975 50,876
43 11,909 14,992 18,394 23,279 27,038 30,005 32,605
RSA
Total 377016 412,500 437,200 453,100 462,400 474,300 488,800
8.2 HOUSING
26 7,048 7,595 8,214 8,340 8,471 8,530 9,129
27 10,512 10,851 10,925 11,262 111195 11,248 11,375
28 18,164 19,245 20,712 21,421 22,282 22,946 23,358
30 1,989 2,041 21124 20136 2,138 2,143 2,147
38 10,234 10,975 11,227 11,986 12,759 13,265 13,684
39 10,562 10,953 11,098 11,108 11,843 12,569 13,285
40 28,192 29,807 32,251 33,376 34,343 35,278 36,078
41 20,285 21,376 23,706 24,898 25,898 26,458 27,228
42 19,576 19,916 19,999 20,319 20,470 20,673 20,904
43 3,541 4,441 5,544 7,054 8,301 9,290 10,212
RSA
Total 130,103 137,200 145,800 151,800 157,700 162,400 167,400
8.3 EMPLOYMENT
26 37,194 53,854 66,988 74,455 78,501 81,166 84,425
27 16,623 18,978 19,220 19,818 20,084 20,462 20,822
28 13,524 14,888 15,244 16,006 16,214 16,843 17,813
30 1,417 1,589 1,759 1,916 1,994 2,091 2,525
38 5,055 6,269 6,493 6,644 6,860 7,125 7,730
39 17,517 24,291 24,842 25,972 26,503 27,208 28,232
40 35,524 45,667 47,815 51,087 52,438 56,606 60,545
41 55,452 68,915 71,528 76,153 77,694 79,603 80,374
42 23,441 26,098 27,601 28,888 29,497 30,300 30,750
43 1,276 651 810 1,061 2,015 2,496 2,884
RSA
Total 207,023 261,200 282,300 302,000 311,800 323,900 336,100
96
Population Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
63 66 68
56
e 1980
b 1990
c 2000
d 2010
8 8
a b c d , •
Oa b c d
17 20 2 26 2 27 7
28
' 6 �
4447 a b c d a b c d 43
04 40 25 29 32 33
27
129 18
19
122 12
, '
70 72 7 a b d a b d
64 b c d
53 38 1111
39abod
a b c d
40 42
41
a b c d
CAA'S
within
N RSA G-42
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
Dwelling Unit Growth
(in thousands)
for 1990, 1990, 2000, 2010 Ia
a 1980
b ; 1990
c 2000
d : 2010 a b c d
9 1 11 11 1! 2
T R R O ONE
' b c d
a b d c d jR�
13 la 1 I 20 20 20 " 1C
10 11 3z 43
b
4
a C c a b c d
a b d
38 Z zl a � M d 39 a b d
20 40 42
41
c d
CAA'S
within
N RSA G-42
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
Employment Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
84
79
67 19 20
7 16 IS
a 1980 14 15
b 1990
c 2000 t
d 2010 a b d
a c 28 a b d
r 26 2727 43
a b d 2s
g 28
29 31
61 23 = 0.6
a 52 a b c d
5 6
all
b c d 6 a b c d
38 . . � � 39 a b c
40 42
41
55
CAA'S
within
N a b c d RSA G-42
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
i
RSA G-42
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA has relatively few large parcels of land
remaining for development.
2. Significant redevelopment of this RSA will occur
throughout the projections years.
3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first
generation residential build-out by the year 2000 .
4. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually
occur through recycling.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple
average annual rate of about 1 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will increase slightly from
2.90 in 1980, to 2.92 in 2010.
Public. Services and Facilities
1. This RSA will continue to have relatively few
recreational facilities.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
the RSA.
Economic Base
1. This RSA will continue to have an employment base noted
for its diversity and abundance of firms.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 211,600 in 1980 .to
336,100 in 2010.
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas.
3. Significant intensification will occur in the Fashion
Square area, The City Shopping Center area, the
industrial areas adjacent to the Santa Ana River and Main
Street corridor, the Main Street corridor, and the Santa
Ana Central Business District,
100
i
14 16
15
13
N
22
23 25
CAA 24
within
RSA H-37
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA H-37 ANAHEIM
RSA H-37 is located in the central portion of north Orange
County, and includes the Cities of Stanton, Garden Grove, and
most of Anaheim except the Anaheim Hills area. The region is
bound by the Riverside Freeway on the north and generally follows
the Orange Freeway on the east and the Garden Grove Freeway on
the south.
The land area of RSA H-37 totals 30,892 acres. In 1980, this
region recorded the highest proportion of residential acreage (62
percent) , the highest proportion of commercial acreage (11
percent) , and the lowest proportion of open space (2 percent) of
all the County's RSAs. Eight percent of the region's acreage is
used for industrial purposes, with 3 percent remaining vacant, 2
percent agricultural, and 12 percent devoted to various other
uses.
In 1980, RSA H-37 was the second largest RSA in population, with
338,682 residents, or 18 percent of the total County population.
Population in the region is projected to increase 15 percent
between 1980 and 2010, to a total of 389,200. Twenty-seven
percent of this RSA's population in 1980 was under 18 years old
and 8 percent was over 65 years, both of which are close to the
County average. While the percentage of elderly in RSA H-37 was
close to the County average, in total numbers this RSA ranked
second in the County to RSA D-40. It is- significant to note that
in 1980, there were 19,532 persons over age 65 located in RSA
H-37 even though there is no sizeable planned senior community.
Large numbers of seniors are in all of .the CAAs within this RSA
with the exception of CAA 23.
In spite of the large number of elderly in this area in 1980, RSA
H-37 had the third highest fertility rate amoung RSAs with 77
births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. This to some degree can be
attributed to the concentration of Hispanics in central Anaheim
(CAAs 14 and 15) and the higher than average fertility rates that
accompany this ethnic group. Sixteen percent of this RSA' s
population was of. Spanish origin in 1980, which was the second
highest percent of the RSAs. This RSA also had the second lowest
percentage of Whites in the County.
The housing stock in RSA H-37 is projected to increase 17 percent
during the forecast period, from a figure of 124, 875 in 1980 to
145,700 in 2010. Distinguishing features of the area' s housing
stock recorded in the 1980 Census include the highest proportion
of mobile homes (5 percent) , the second highest proportion of
multiple, family housing units (55 percent) , the lowest median
housing value ($.87,300) of all County RSAs and the second lowest
median rent at $308. In addition, when compared to other RSAs
this region had the second highest percent of renter-occupied
103
RSA H-37 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
PROPORTION OF
COUNTY POPULATION
I
POPULATION GROWTH RATE I
1980-1984 I
I
FERTILITY RATE
I
PROPORTION UNDER 18
PROPORTION OVER 88
I
I
PROPORTION BLACK 1
I
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN
PROPORTION ASIAN
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE I
I
1080-1884 1
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
I
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING i
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
i
SOURCE ORANCE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AM IM com
104
units at 45 percent and the second lowest percent of owner-
occupied units at 55 percent.
This is one of the most affordable regions in the County which is
understandable considering the relatively large proportion of
multiple family dwellings and mobile homes. Also, because of
this residential land usage, densities in this RSA are higher
than average. It ranks third among all the RSAs in the number of
dwelling units per residential acre at 6.56 units per acre and
has an average of 2. 71 people living in each dwelling unit.
This RSA in 1980 had the largest proportion of older housing in
the County, with 35 percent of the units between 21 to 30 years
old and 6 percent more than 30 years old. This will result in a
42 percent share of housing older than 40 years by the year 2000.
By 1985, first generation residential build-out is anticipated,
as there is very little land remaining for first generation
development. Some residential redevelopment has taken place
since the late seventies and early eighties. This trend toward
redevelopment should continue through the projection years
considering the lack of vacant developable land and the age of
the housing stock.
With 143,321 jobs or 16 percent of the County's total employment
located within its boundaries in 1980, RSA H-37 ranks third in
employment among the RSAs. Disneyland and the Anaheim Convention
Center are located within the region and have attracted many
major hotel and restaurant chains and various other businesses
into the area. The numerous jobs serving the tourist and
convention industries, along with employment concentrated around
Anaheim Stadium and the Garden Grove Industrial Complex, are
responsible for the region's current and continuing importance as
a major employment center in Orange County. In the year 2010, it
is projected that RSA H-37 will still be ranked third in the
County in total employment with the addition of 68,679 jobs.
However, with a total employment of 212, 000 by the first decade
of the twenty-first century, this RSA will decrease its
proportion of the County's total employment to 13 percent.
105
I
TABLE 9
RSA H-37 PROJECTIONS
9.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
13 50,053 53,668 53,461 54,237 54,500 57,025 57,410
14 49,337 53,690 54,367 54,607 65,029 57,053 58,938
15 39,853 42,733 43,720 43,998 44,588 48,173 50,951
16 39,035 41,860 41,688 41,748 42,297 42,075 43,366
22 26,522 27,552 28,868 28,912 28,753 26,726 29,573
23 17,547 18,274 18,210 18,375 1S,5S7 18,531 18,517
24 66,734 71,574 71,668 71,583 72,278 75,021 75,913
25 49,601 53,049 52,818 52,940 53,168 54,596 54,532
RSA
Total 338,682 362,400 364,800 366,400 369,200 379,200 389,200
9.2 HOUSING
13 19,216 20,015 20,224 20,819 21,236 21,692 22,051
14 18,333 19,465 19,986 20,342 20,762 21,388 220329
15 15,300 15,700 16,252 16,594 17,057 18,249 19,483
16 14,665 15,306 15,618 15,806 16,017 16,383 16,758
22 9,722 10,038 10,573 10,784 10,932 11,030 i1,117
23 5,224 5,344 5,451 5,548 5,655 50708 5,763
24 24,315 25,397 25,832 26,127 26,690 27,314 27,868
25 18,100 18,935 19,064 19,380 19,751 20,136 20,331
RSA
Total 124,875 130,200 133,000 135,400 138,100 141,900 145,700
9.3 EMPLOYMENT
13 14,039 17,980 18,307 18,893 19,171 19,608 20,140
14 25,692 33,982 37,187 39,360 39,940 41,486 42,612
15 24,754 35,421 36,996 37,982 38,342 39,423 40,280
16 31,465 32,544 34,326 35,030 35,347 36,326 37,100
22 6,228 8,271 8,391 8,462 8,587 S,875 9,116
23 2,562 3,057 3,242 3,346 31394 3,509 3,604
24 22,236 26,970 28,986 29,717 30,156 31,166 31,800
25 16,345 21,575 23,265 24,010 24,763 26,007 27,348
RSA
Total 143,321 179,800 190,700 196,800 199,700 206,400 212,000
106
Population Growth
(in thousands) 54 55 59
49
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 1111
05355 14 H1 1 16
a b c d
15 1 3S 42 4243
40 4445
27 29 29 30 a b c d
13 abcd , n�' ,
a b c d 72 2 76 a b c d 1
Isla 19 19 2 -
b c e0 53 5355
23 25
a b c d
CAA'S 24 a b c d
within
a : 1980
RSAH-37 b : 1990
c : 2000
d : 2010
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
W"m SISAIWW SNV 1"03WA '3a"Ao 3AIIVSISININ" A Wo" www :33Sfl03
OLOZ : p
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oael q q LE-H VSN
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ZZ �
i p qE
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61 p 0 q g
T 4i 9L 17L
119
zz Tz Q2 s` 0 L OZ `OOOZ `066 L `086 L ao}
tt Ot Bt
(spupsnoyj ui)
Zr gimolD i!u fl Suillam(l
40 43
Employment Growth 37
(in thousands) 26
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 34 36 37
3�
,a 19 20 14 16
40
' 37 3R
15 25
a : 1880 a b c d a b c d
b 0
: 200000 13
d 201.0 a b c d N
a b c d
29 30 32
22
22 23 7
3 3 3 4 'G
■ ■ E23 25
b c d
a b c d a b c d
CAA'S 24
within
RSA H-37
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY A➢MINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
i
RSA H-37
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. This RSA has very little land remaining for first generation
development.
2. Significant redevelopment will begin to occur in this RSA
after 1985.
3. There will be steady private sector recycling of land from
single m -ng family i y to multi-family use in the older sectors of
this RSA.
4. First generation residential build-out of this RSA will
occur by 1985.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of slightly less than 0.5 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will decrease from 2.71 in
1980, to 2.67 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. Major recreation facilities in this RSA will continue to be
provided by the private sector.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient o n t meet demands within
this RSA.
Economic Base
1. The favorable tourist-commercial base of this RSA will
continue.
2. Significant industrial development in the Garden Grove area
will be completed by 1985.
3. There will be continued industrial and commercial growth in
the Anaheim area.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 143,321 in 1980 to
212,000 in 2010.
110
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas.
3. Significant intensification will occur in the Anaheim
Stadium area, and along State College Blvd. , the Disneyland
area, and the Central Business Districts of Anaheim and
Garden Grove.
111
N
I
32 37 CAA'S
within j
33 RSA 1-38
31
36
I
34
35
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA I-38 WEST COAST
Situated in the northern coastal section of Orange County, RSA
I-38 is bordered by Los Angeles County on the west, the San
Diego Freeway the City of Westminster on the north, the Santa
Ana River on the east and the Pacific Ocean on the south.
Located within the region' s boundaries are the United States
Naval Weapons Station and the Cities of Fountain Valley,
Westminster, Seal Beach, and Huntington Beach. Most of the
development in this RSA can be characterized as suburban
residential. The area includes miles of preserved,
state-owned coastline, including Bolsa Chica Beach State Park
and Huntington Beach State Park. Other points of interest
include Bolsa Chica Ecological Reserve and the natural
waterways of Anaheim Bay Landing.
RSA I-38 contains 38,421 acres. In 1980, 47 percent of the
region was zoned residential, 6 percent was devoted to
commercial use, and 5 percent was designated as industrial.
An additional 7 percent was reserved open space, while 2
percent was agricultural and 6 percent remained vacant.
Twenty-seven percent of the region's land area was classified
in various other land uses, including military.
In 1980, the area's population numbered 321,137, or 17 percent
of the total County population. By 2010, an additional 57,763
individuals are projected to reside in this RSA, bringing its
total population to 378,900. This RSA will rank third in
population among the County RSAs throughout the forecast
period.
The proportion of people of Spanish origin (approximately 9
percent) was below the County average in 1980 while the
percentage of Asian and Pacific Islanders (6 percent) was the
second highest in the County'. An identifiable concentration
of the Asian population is located in CAA 32; many of these
individuals relocated to this area from Southeast Asia and
have established both a residential and business community
since the mid-seventies.
In 1980, RSA I-38 had the second lowest fertility rate of all
the RSAs at 52 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. In
addition, 41 percent of the population had resided in the same
house at least five years prior to the 1980 Census. RSA I-38
did experience some residential growth in the early eighties
but in the long run, population growth is projected to be a
slow average annual rate of 0.6 percent due to the relative
lack of developable space.
115
RSA 1-38 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
PROPORTION
COUNTY POPULATION
POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1
1980-1964 �
1
FERTILITY RATE 1
I
1
PROPORTION UNDER 18
PROPORTION OVER 66
PROPORTION SLACK
1
PROPORTION SPANISH !
ORIGIN I
PROPORTION ASIAN
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE I
I
1980-1944 I
1
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
I
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING 1
I
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING I
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
SOURCE DRANCE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE DfFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIR CENTER A" 1"o CIIMUE
116
The housing stock in RSA I-38 is projected to increase from a
figure of 119,038 in 1980 to 150,900 in 2010. In 1980, this
RSA ranked third among the County RSAs in terms of total
dwelling units. In the year 2010, it is projected to increase
its rank to second. First generation residential build-out is
not anticipated until after the year 2000 and so substantial
residential redevelopment should not be expected until then.
Conversion to more intense uses of residential space should
provide some housing for individuals migrating into the area
and should also increase population densities overall. This
RSA presently is densely populated and, in 1980, ranked second
highest of all the RSAs in number of units per residential
acre at 6.57. The population per dwelling unit was 2 .69.
In 1980, total jobs in this region totaled 92, 891,
representing 10 percent of Countywide employment. Employment
in the area is projected to increase by 44 percent between
1980 and 2010, to a figure of 133,500. Even with this
significant growth, the region's percentage of the total
County employment will drop to 8.5 percent in the year 2010.
Major employers in this RSA include Rockwell International in
Seal Beach, McDonnell Douglas in Huntington Beach, Huntington
Center, and the Westminster Mall.
117
�
TABLE 10
RSA I-38 PROJECTIONS
10.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
31 18,160 19,450 20,141 19,860 19,988 20,012 20,362
32 72,065 74,634 74,735 75,382 76,011 76,091 76,987
33 65,404 67,837 66,887 67,523 66,742 67,928 68,500
34 24,768 28,457 30,027 32,265 33,229 34,694 37,392
35 29,342 33,502 44,331 52,568 53,658 54,438 56,104
36 58,628 63,030 63,068 63,844 63,063 63,986 65,763
37 52,770 53,390 53,511 52,758 53,009 53,051 53,792
RSA
Total. 321,137 340,300 352,700 364,200 365,700 370,200 378,900
10.2 HOUSING
31 11,206 12,068 12,708 12,752 12,985 13,114 13,249
32 25,061 25,791 26,438 27,055 27,670 27,939 28,223
33 22,682 22,954 23,083 23,734 23,798 24,350 24,911
34 10,757 11,960 13,049 14,529 15,348 16,457 17,472
35 13,165 14,826 19,997 24,153 24,954 25,577 26,280
36 20,009 21,043 21,532 22,128 22,129 22,681 23,241
37 16,158 16,458 16,693 16,849 17,016 17,182 17,524
RSA
Total 119,038 125,100 133,500 141,200 143,900 147,300 150,900
10.3 EMPLOYMENT
31 5,819 71721 8,269 8,225 8,344 8,735 9,078
32 19,436 26,856 27,775 27,965 28,131 29,371 30,972
33 29,571 34,465 35,010 35,133 35,641 36,587 38,181
34 3,385 3,469 3,501 3,525 3,695 4,178 4,272
35 7,960 10,854 12,720 12,925 13,350 16,078 17,622
36 91182 10,518 10,853 10,926 10,966 11,394 12,015
37 17,538 18,017 18,672 18,801 19,073 20,257 21,360
RSA
Total 92,891 111,900 116,700 117,500 119,200 126,600 133,500
118
J
N
Population Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
75 76 77
a : 1980
b : 1990
c : 2000 5 53 54
d : 2010
fi5 67 67 69 32 a b c d CAA�S
37 abed
within
33 RSA 1-38
18 20 20 20 59 63 6366
1111 31 shad
a b c d 5456 36
37 44
3
25 30 30
34 abed
a b c d a b o d 3 5
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
M31N3� SISkr4W OW ISV33HOA -33Iiia WIVOISININCV AIM1a3 3"HO :33WMS
S £ p q e
p a q a j
Y�
p a g a £ P a q 8
I
9£ Y 1
I1 £
FT
st T1
OZ It p a q a FT Ft
ft
ury1!
8£_� Y SN fz 22ZD2 p a g 8 92Sz £ £
nn
S,dbD L£ Z£
p a a
B1 IT IT 9T
♦2 2
OtDZ p
000t = a
OBEt q
aset
ez vz Sz
ez
O L OZ. `0003 4066 L `086 L Jo;
(spupsno4i ui)
N 41MO O ilun suillam(I
i
N
Employment Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
31
28 28
19
a : 1980
b 1990
c 2000
d 2010
38 a b c d
35 36 18 19 19 21
3O 32 3 CAA'S
P� within
33 a b a d RSA 1-38
b c d
36
' IS 9 11 11 12
a b C d 13 13 ' " '
34 NONE a I abed
abed 35
a b c d
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA I-38
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first
generation residential build-out after the year 2000.
2. There will be limited available lend for development
during the lifetime of the oil fields.
3. Major redevelopment will begin in this RSA before the
year 2010.
4. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually
occur.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple
average annual rate of approximately 0.6 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit in this RSA will decrease
from 2.70 in 1980, to 2.51 in 2010.
Public Services and Facilities
1. The essential physical public serices and facilities and
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
this RSA.
2, The Seal Beach Navel Weapons Sation will remain in
government ownership and use beyond 2010.
Economic Base
1. This RSA will continue to have a strong commercial and a
moderate industrial base.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 92,891 in 1980 to
133,500 in 2010.
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas.
3. Significant intensification will occur in the Beach Blvd.
corridor area, Westminster Mall, Rockwell Internation
area in Seal Beach, McDonnel Douglas area in Huntington
Beach, and employment areas adjacent to the San Diego
Freeway.
122
i
N
11
10 12
19
CAA'S
21 within
20 RSA )-35
SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
RSA J-35 BUENA PARK
Located in the northwest section of Orange County, RSA J-35
includes the Cities of Buena Park, Cypress, La Palma, Los
Alamitos and the unincorporated community of Rossmoor. The RSA
borders Los Angeles County on the northwest and is surrounded by
the Orange County Cities of Seal Beach and Garden Grove on the
south and southeast and Fullerton, Anaheim, and Stanton on the
east.
RSA J-35 represents Orange County's smallest RSA, with• 16,732
acres. The area was once dominated by large agricultural
holdings, primarily devoted to dairy farming. Most of these
farmlands, formerly located in the Cypress and La Palma areas,
have been converted into residential development.
As reflected in a 1980 County land use survey, 52 percent of the
acreage in RSA J-35 was devoted to residential land uses. Eight
percent of the region's acreage was zoned commercial, 6 percent
was recorded as industrial, 7 percent was reserved as open space,
and 4 percent was vacant. Only 4 percent of the land area
remained in agricultural use at this time, while an additional 19
percent was devoted to miscellaneous other uses.
The 1980 population for the area was 156,248, which represented 8
percent of the total County population. By 2010, the number of
residents living in this region are projected to increase by 6
percent, to a figure of 165,400. RSA J-35 will experience the
lowest growth rate of all RSAs during the forecast period.
This low growth rate can be ascribed to a number of different
factors, including a relatively low fertility rate in 1980 of 56
births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. In addition, as of the
Decennial Census RSA J-35 had the lowest rate of migration in the
County as well as the highest percent of individuals residing in
the same home betweem 1975 and 1980. Only 3 percent of the
residents in 1980 were foreign born, the lowest percentage for
the entire County. Lastly, RSA J-35 is virtually built out •and
as a result would not be expected to generate a great deal of
population growth when compared with other regions in the County.
Private sector recycling of land from single family to
multi-family use in the older section of this RSA has stimulated
minor population growth and will continue to do so through the
projection years. However, with a housing growth rate of less
than 2 percent, the lowest in the County, population density is
expected to increase while overall population growth will be low
in the future.
125
RSA J- 35 PROFILE
COUNTY AVERAGE
I
PROPORTION OF I
COUNTY POPULATION I
1
I
POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1
1880-1984 1
1
I
FERTILITY RATE
PROPORTION UNDER 18
(
i
PROPORTION OVER 88
PROPORTION BLACK
1
PROPORTION SPANISH
ORIGIN
1
PROPORTION ASIAN
DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1
1
1980-1084 I
PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT
PROPORTION
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING
I
PROPORTION
MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING
PROPORTION
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
COMMERCIAL LAND USE
PROPORTION
INDUSTRIAL LAND USE
1
SOURCE. DAANOE COUNTY AbMIN1STRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST ANO ANALYStt CENTER AND 11D0 CENSUS
126
Dwelling units in the region are projected to increase from
52,454 in 1980 to 59,800 in the year 2010. As is the case with
population, the housing stock in RSA J-35 will experience the
smallest numerical and percentage growth among the RSAs during
the projection period. Experiencing most of its growth in
earlier years, development in this RSA through the year 2010 will
primarily consist of various infill and redevelopment activity.
While this RSA does not represent a major employment center, with
only 6 percent of the County's total jobs in 1980, the region has
attracted the corporate offices of several large retail
establishments such as J.C. Penney, Gemco, and Lucky's stores.
The Buena Park Mall and various neighborhood shopping centers
provide the surrounding area with retail and commercial services.
Also located in this area is the Los Alamitos Race Track, the Los
Alamitos Reserve Air Station and Knott' s Berry Farm, one of the
County's major tourist attractions.
Total employment is projected to increase from 55,067 in 1980 to
86, 400 in 2010 and growth can be expected around present sites.
This addition of 31,333 jobs during the projection period
represents a 57 percent increase.
127
TABLE 11
RSA J-35 PROJECTIONS
11.1 POPULATION
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
10 13,967 14,589 14,670 14,654 14r432 14,411 14,375
11 22,560 23r283 23,661 23,524 23,501 23,718 25,559
12 44,801 46,691 47,898 48,107 47,917 48,447 48,052
19 45,685 47,273 48,514 48,185 47,473 47,334 46,843
20 12,481 12,720 12,438 12,321 12,098 12,014 11,837
21 16,754 17,944 18,519 18,509 18,879 18,876 18,734
RSA
Total 156#248 162,500 165,700 165t300 164,300 164,800 165,400
11.2 HOUSING
10 4,094 4,295 4,435 4,476 41494 4,524 4,585
11 8,820 9,093 9,469 9,514 9,674 9,867 10,806
12 14r821 15,317 16,117 16,381 16,601 17,027 17,160
19 14,535 14,886 15,587 15r739 15,810 15,906 16,000
20 4,543 4,564 4,573 4,578 41584 4,587 4,594
21 5r641 5,845 6,219 6,312 6 537 6,589 6,655
RSA
Total 52,454 54,000 56,400 57,000 57,700 58,500 59,800
11.3 EMPLOYMENT
10 3,802 4,376 4,592 4,944 4,988 5,161 5/402
11 16,990 20,323 21,296 22,817 230626 24,660 25,909
12 14,264 14,790 15,960 16,708 17,237 18,214 19,321
19 9,077 17,264 18,899 20,805 21,819 21,899 22,153
20 1,554 1,577 1r697 lr820 1,882 11940 2,023
21 9,380 9,470 10,356 10,806 10,948 11,026 11,592
RSA
Total 55,067 67,800 72,800 77,900 801500 82,900 86,400
128
Population Growth
IR (in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
23 24 24 26 4
1 N
a b c d
11
1q i5 1414
' ' 4
a b d
10 12
e 1980
a 'b c d b : 1880
46 49 h7 47
c : 2000
19 d : 2010
a b c d CAA'S
11221 �� 21 within
a b c d 17 19 19 19 RSA J-35
20 Jill
a b c d
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
i
Dwelling Unit Growth '
IR (in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
11
4 q 1
N
a b c d
16 77 1T 11
A 4 i 13
'
j0 d 12
a : 19ao
!s 16 1 b 1000
b o 2000
19
d 2010
a b c d CAA'S
3 , 121 within
b 0 d 6 6 RSA -35
20 1111
a b c d
SOURCE ORANGE MPNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST ANO ANALWIN CENTER
Employment Growth
(in thousands)
for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
a 1980 24 26
b 1990 21
c 2000 17
d 2010
4 5 5 5
abcdmoll 11
16
IT 20
a b c d 14
111
10 ' 12 '
22 a b c d
is
19
a b c d CAA'S
22 : : S 10 11 t221 within
.
a 20 ' ' ' ' RSA J-35
a b c d
SOURCE; ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
i
RSA J-35
GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Use of Land
1. By 1985 this RSA will have very little land left for first
generation development.
2. Significant public sector redevelopment will not occur in
the RSA until after the year 2000.
3. There will be steady private sector recycling of land from
single family to multi-family use in the older sectors of
this RSA.
4. First generation build-out of this RSA will occur before
1990.
Demographics
1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average
annual rate of slightly less than 0.2 percent.
2. The persons-per-dwelling-unit will decrease from 2. 98 in
1980 to 2.77 in 2010 in this RSA.
Public Services and Facilities
1. Major recreation facilities in this RSA will continue to be
provided by the private sector.
2. The essential physical public services and facilities
infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within
this RSA.
3. Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station will remain in government
ownership and use.
Economic Base
1. The industrial and commercial base in this RSA will
increase.
Employment
1. Total employment will increase from 55,067 in 1980 to 86,500
in 2010.
2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment
activity areas. (Buena Park industrial areas, along Highway
39, Knott's Berry Farm area, the Katella corridor, and
Cypress adjacent to Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station.)
132
APPENDIX A
POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
Introduction
This appendix describes the methods used by the County of Orange
Forecast and Analysis Center (FAC) to produce the Countywide,
Regional Statistical Areas (RSA) and Community Analysis Area
(CAA) population and dwelling unit projections. The preparation
of these projections is a process that consists of several
procedures and methodologies. In very broad terms, the
projections are produced by first projecting total County
population and housing, then disaggregating the Countywide
projected population and dwelling units to smaller geographic
areas based on land use capacity and assumed market forces within
the County. The description that follows discusses each step of
this process as implemented for the development of Orange County
Preferred Projections-1985 and the corresponding CAA-level
projections. This process is also depicted in Figure A-1.
Projection Process/Methodology
A. Project Total County Population
In developing the population projections, it was most
efficient to work closely with the State Department of
Finance (DOF) Population Research Unit in their effort to
produce baseline population projections for California
counties. Working with DOF helped assure County input and
consistency between the two agencies' sets of projections.
FAC developed quantified migration assumptions for Orange
County, and then reviewed and analyzed the DOF draft
migration, fertility and mortality assumptions. County
staff also developed an age-cohort model in order to
evaluate the DOF draft population projections. Comparisons
revealed that the DOF draft projections were within less
than one percent of the County-produced projections. With
such a high degree of agreement, the DOF' s Baseline-83
projections were utilized as the County control totals.
B. Project Draft Total County Household and Dwelling Unit
Projections
Like population, dwelling units are projected Countywide and
independent of direct local policy input. Given the array
of approaches available and the complexity of influencing
factors, five separate analyses were conducted and then
converged. These techniques included two regression
analyses, two headship rate models , and a simple trend
analysis.
A-1
Two approaches are commonly employed in forecasting housing
unit: . IiB first method relies on the projection of
household size, which when divided into population to
produces projected dwelling units. The second approach
directly projects the total number of households derived
from age-specific headship rates. The number of households
adjusted for a vacancy rate then yields the number of
housing units. Factors such as population size, age
structure, racial and ethnic composition, dwelling unit mix,
and life style choices influence bath the number of
households and the household size, technically referred to
as persons-per-household or persons-per-dwelling-unit.
1. DOF Household Projections
Household population is the net difference between
total population and group quarters population, or
residents of military barracks, college dormitories,
old age institutions, prisons, and other group
facilities. DOF develops household projections as a
by-product of their age cohort projections. Their
basic methodology applies headship rates to each
specific age cohort of household population. Headship
rates are the frequency with which a member of an age
cohort is a household head. The most recent headship
rates were based on 1980 Census and adjusted in future
years based on local and statewide trends. Group-
quarters population was projected for age and sex
cohorts by DOF based on past trends and projections
from state departments administering various
group-quarter facilities.
The DOF household projections were converted into
dwelling unit projections by applying a vacancy rate.
The vacancy rate was increased from 3.8 percent in 1984
to 5 percent by the year 2000 using a straight line
method, and held constant thereafter.
2. PAC Modification of DOF Household Projections
In reviewing the DOF household projections, PAC
proposed alternative future scenarios in two areas.
The first area, the projection of total group-quarters
population, appeared low. The State relied, in part,
on short-term projections developed by a variety of
their service-provider departments. Moreover, the
projections were not directly tied to the State age
cohort projections. Consequently, the group-quarters
population was projected to increase only 1.2 percent
per year throughout the projection period. In fact,
the group-quarters population in Orange. County has been
growing at a rate of 3.5 percent per year and the
A-2
cohort using old age facilities and college dormitories
are projected to increase significantly.
An independent group-quarters population was therefore
developed by FAC. The PAC projection divided the
group-quarters population into four segments: elderly,
military, student, and others, and each one of these
segments was projected separately. The elderly segment
was projected by using the proportion of those in group
quarters to the population over the age of 64
throughout the projection years. The growth rate of
this proportion between 1970 and 1980 was applied to
the 1980 baseline to generate future years' population.
The military population in group quarters was held
constant and the student or dormitory population was
projected by applying the 1980 rate of this population
to total population aged 18 to 24 to the projected
population in that age cohort. Finally, all other
group-quarters population was projected as a ratio of
total population. These four segments were summed to
derive total projected group-quarters population.
Secondly, projected headship rates for Orange County
and the Southern California Association of Governments
(SCAG) region were compared. Except for an increase in
the cohort aged 15 to 24, the County was generally
consistent with the region and especially Los Angeles
County. It seemed most probable that Orange County' s
rate would decrease as well; the headship rate for this
age group consequently was adjusted to reflect the
regional trend.
Using the FAC projection of group-quarters population,
household population was projected. Then by applying
the adjusted headship rates to the household population
by age, total households were projected. These were
then adjusted for vacancy rates to derive total
dwelling units. The vacancy rates were held around
those currently experienced.
3. Regression Model-Based Forecasts of Persons-Per-
Household
A stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted
to identify the variables that best predict
persons-per-household. For this analysis, 1980 Census
data was utilized at the census tract level. Three
variables were identified: percent of the population
aged 0 to 17, percent of housing single family, and
percent of the population white. This analysis was
replicated using 1970 Census data in order to determine
if the equations were stable; the results were
consistent.
A-3
The total County persons-per-household from 1985 to
2010 were projected based on the regression equation
applied to projections for age, dwelling unit mix, and
race. The age projections were those developed from
the age cohort model. Dwelling unit projections
developed for a series of transportation studies were
utilized to determine projected percent single family
units. Finally, the percent White was projected based
on trends from 1970 to 1980 and projections of race
developed by SCAG.
Total households were projected by dividing the
projected persons-per-household factors into the
projected household population. The projected
household population was that derived for the FAC
household projections. The projected households were
adjusted for vacancy rates used in 2 above.
4. Regression Model Based Forecasts of Persons-Per-
Dwelling Unit
This approach was very similar to projecting persons-
per-household. A stepwise multiple regression analysis
was undertaken to identify the factors that best
predicted this factor for census tracts. Like the
analysis above, the same three variables provided the
best predictors. This analysis was also replicated
using 1970 data with similar results.
Dwelling units were projected directly by dividing the
projected persons-per-dwelling unit into projected
population. Using the vacancy rates derived in Method
2, households were also projected.
5. CaRacity of Existin Ceneral Plans Zonin
Redevelopment P ans an Recyc ng Potent Fat
All city and county general plans, zoning codes, and
redevelopment plans were analyzed to determine the
potential dwelling units that would be added when these
were fully implemented. Far certain areas, a
redevelopment potential was also calculated. It was
assumed that all of this capacity would be reached by
the years 2020 to 2025. It was also assumed that the
growth of added units would not exceed recent trends.
Specifically, 15,000 units per year would be added
initially, gradually declining thereafter. Based on
these assumptions, total housing units were projected.
As in Method 4, vacancy rates were applied to the
dwelling unit projections to derive households.
The average of dwelling unit projections from the five
methods was used to generate household projections, and
likewise, the average of household projections was used to
A-4
generate dwelling units projections. The last two solutions
were then averaged, yielding final household and dwelling
unit forecasts.
Small Area Population and Housing Projection Procedure
A. Disaggregate Draft Population and Dwelling Unit Projections
to Subareas
The draft total added dwelling units were disaggregated to
the 10 SCAG RSAs. These were added cumulatively to the 1980
Census housing counts to derive total projected dwelling
units for each five year increment. The disaggregations
were based on OCP-III and adjusted for available information
on general plan capacities, other land use policies, short
term trends, recent development approvals, availability of
land, and assumptions regarding redevelopment and infill.
Persons-per-dwelling-unit factors were projected for each
RSA. The factors were projected by using 1980 Census
persons-per-dwelling-unit as a baseline adjusted for the
Countywide rate of change. These were further reviewed and
adjusted based on information regarding any significant
changes in the dwelling unit mix for a particular area.
Total population by RSA was then projected by applying the
projected persons-per-dwelling-unit factors to the projected
dwelling units. These were then controlled to the projected
County population.
A similar procedure was utilized to develop CAA-level
projections. The total added dwelling units were allocated
to the CAAs within each of the RSAs. This allocation was
based on the same factors used to disaggregate the total
added dwelling units to the RSAs. Likewise, persons-per-
dwelling-unit factors for each CAA and portions of cities
within each CAA for each five year increment. Applying
these factors to projected added dwelling units, draft
population figures were developed and controlled to the
RSA-level projections.
B. Agency Review and Input Process
A major step in the process of developing the subarea
population and dwelling unit projections was the
solicitation of information and comments from each city
planning department, the County Environmental Management
Agency (EMA) , and several nongovernmental agencies and
organizations. Each city was provided a copy of their
projections by CAA developed in the step above. Each city
was requested to review and evaluate the projections,
supporting their comments based on the city's policies,
significant trends, foreseen policy changes, and projections
the city itself may have developed. Documentation such as
the general plan and its elements, annexations plans,
A-5
it
phasing schedules, and zoning maps were also solicited.
Similar data was solicited from MA for the unincorporated
portions of the County. Phasing data and other background
information on major development projects was requested of
several land developers. in addition, Annual Monitoring
Reports detailing short range phasing projections required
by the County of major land developments in unincorporated
areas were used.
C. Adjust Subarea Projections
Based on the feedback provided by these various sources as
well as the PAC assumptions regarding market conditions, the
city/CAA level housing projections were adjusted, and after
the application of the persons-per-dwelling-unit factors,
population was adjusted. The adjusted CAA projections were
then aggregated to the RSA level. Each RSA projection was
evaluated and then adjusted. Next the RSA-level dwelling
unit projections were aggregated and used to evaluate and
adjust the County total.
D. Secondary Review
The draft city/CAA projections were sent to the cities for
additional review and comment. If substantial comments were
provided, further adjustments were made as described in the
step above.
E. Final Draft Projections
Upon obtaining agreement between the city staff and PAC
regarding the projections, the secondary review and
adjustment process terminated. These final drafts of RSA-
and CAA-level projections were then reviewed by the
Demographic Projections Steering Committee to obtain their
concurrence. The Countywide and RSA-level projections were
presented to the Board of Supervisors for adoption.
A-6
POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT
PROJECTION PROCEDURE
PROJECT TOTAL
COUNTY POPULATION
PROJECT TOTAL
COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS
AND
DWELLING UNITS
ALLOCATE POPULATION
AND DWELLING UNITS
TO SUB AREAS
AGENCY REVIEW
AND INPUT
DEVELOP REVISED SMALL AREA PROJECTIONS
SECONDARY
REVIEW
ADJUST DRAFT
PROJECTIONS
FINAL DRAFT
PROJECTIONS
AOARD ADOPTION
A-7
APPENDIX B
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
Introduction
This appendix describes the procedure used to produce Countywide,
Regional Statistical Area (RSA) and Community Analysis Area (CAA)
level employment projections. The preparation of these
projections consisted of two separate but related procedures, the
development of Countywide employment projections and
disaggregation to smaller geographic areas.
Before describing the procedure in more detail, it should be
noted that the OCP-85 employment projections represent the first
employment forecast adopted by the County. The Demographic
Projections Steering Committee recommended the inclusion of
employment projections in OCP-85. Prior to the development of
these employment projections, the County utilized the
"Projections of Jobs for MMTS Zones,, Orange County 1980-2020" as
working numbers. These projections were developed for the Orange
County Transportation Commission (OCTC) by the Center for
Continuing Study of the California Economy with the assistance of
the County. These OCTC projections have been utilized
extensively by the County and were also included as the
employment projections for Orange County in SCAG-82 developed by
the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) . This
current effort represents an update of these earlier OCTC
employment projections, jointly developed by Orange County's
Forecast and Analysis Center (FAC) and Environmental Management
Agency (EMA) .
Projection Procedure
A. Project Total County and RSA Employment Projections
Concurrent with the OCP-85 effort, SCAG was modifying the
adopted SCAG-82 employment projections. It was most
efficient to work jointly with SCAG in developing our
employment projections. This would help assure consistency
between Orange County's and SCAG's projections.
Since the development of the OCTC/SCAG-82 employment
projections, three major data bases became available:
1. 1980 INCOM - This provides a count of employees by
geographic location. it is developed jointly by the
State of California Employment Development Department
(EDD) and the Orange County Forecast and Analysis
Center.
B-1
2. Urban Transportation Plannin Paoka a (UTPP) - This is
a special product ram t e 1980 Census. It includes
data on the place of employment for workers residing in
the SCAG region.
3. 1980 Census e
Sugar Tape File-3 - This tape includes
data on t e nu r of self-employed and unpaid family
workers.
These data sources were used to develop the 1980 baseline
employment for the total County. An estimate for 1984 and
an initial set of employment projections for 1985 through
2010 in five year increments were developed by adding to
this 1980 baseline employment the new jobs projected from
the OCTC/SCAG-82 employment projections.
These draft figures were adjusted based on additional input.
After the development of the draft projections, EDD revised
their 1984 Countywide employment estimates upward based on a
new 1983 benchmark. The draft 1984 employment figure was
therefore adjusted upward to reflect the more recent EDD
employment estimate. To obtain a 1985 forecast, the 1984
revised figure was increased by the total for the second
quarter 1984 through second quarter 1985 job growth
projected by the Center for Economic Research at Chapman
College. This forecast was then adjusted to include
self-employed and unpaid family workers based on rates
derived from 1980 Census data. Employment for 1990 through
2010 was projected utilizing the same total growth projected
in the draft figures.
1980 employment by RSA was derived from 1980 Census data and
1980 INCOM data, It should be noted that these 1980
baseline estimates have been revised slightly since Board
adoption in February, 1985. Disaggregations for 1985
through 2010 were determined by the percentage of total
employment in the RSA reflected in the OCTC/SCAG-82
employment projections. The Countywide and RSA-level
projections were adopted by the Board of Supervisors,
B. Disaggregate RSA Employment Projections to CAAs
Before the development of OCP-89 County and RSA control
totals, the OCTC employment projections were processed to
develop city/CAA-level employment projections. Each city
was provided a copy of the city/CAA employment corresponding
to their jurisdiction, They were requested to review and
evaluate the projections, and were asked to support their
comments based on documented policies, trends, projections,
and studies. CAA-level employment projections were
developed by adjusting the draft city/CAA employment
projections based on the cities' comments, Orange County
Transportation Analysis Model data developed by EMA, 1980
Census data, UTPP data, and revised 1980 INCOM. These were
B-2
adjusted to conform to the RSA-level projections. Revised
city-level employment projections were provided to the
cities, and comments were again solicited before finalizing
the projections.
B-3
TABLE C-1
CAA-LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 39,560 41,756 41,283 41,730 42,305 42,298 42,562
2 22,074 25,024 26,157 27,534 28,846 29,974 31,693
3 7,801 9,535 10,499 14,992 19,237 21,954 25,089
4 44,704 49,913 53,169 54,711 56,114 57,808 60,875
5 31,976 32,712 32,502 32,894 33,554 33,754 34,565
6 30,468 31,095 30,469 30,931 31,481 31,666 32,605
7 31,329 32,611 34,861 34,675 34,206 34,394 34,485
8 12,778 13,935 13,197 12,166 11,775 11,671 11,609
9 19,839 26,366 37,277 44,137 48,973 49,489 49,058
10 13,967 14,589 14,670 14,654 14,432 14,411 14,375
11 22,560 23,283 23,661 23,524 23,501 23,718 25,559
12 44,801 46,691 47,898 48,107 47,917 48,447 48,052
13 50,053 53,668 53,461 54,237 54,500 57,025 57,410
14 49,337 53,690 54,367 54,607 55,029 57,053 58,938
15 39,853 42,733 43,720 43,998 44,588 48,173 50,951
16 39,035 41,860 41,688 41,748 42,297 42,075 43,366
17 19,496 21,378 22,031 22,066 22,703 23,822 24,775
18 23,605 28,828 38,661 48,646 57,751 67,168 71,618
19 45,685 47,273 48,514 48,185 47,473 47,334 46,843
20 12,481 12,720 12,438 12,321 12,098 12,014 11,837
21 16,754 17,944 18,519 18,509 18,879 18,876 18,734
22 26,522 27,552 28,868 28,912 28,753 26,726 29,573
23 17,547 18,274 18,210 18,375 18,587 18,531 18,517
24 66,734 71,574 71,668 71,583 72,278 75,021 75,913
25 49,601 53,049 52,818 52,940 53,168 54,596 54,532
26 17,153 19,018 20,111 20,176 20,117 20,016 22,133
27 26,283 27,279 26,841 26,941 26,754 26,599 27,349
28 56,277 59,787 62,811 63,889 65,748 67,029 68,125
29 1,838 2,947 7,874 13,618 19,455 25,702 29,266
30 7,590 7,764 7,901 7,873 7,753 7,691 7,601
31 18,160 19,450 20,141 19,860 19,988 20,012 20,362
32 72,065 74,634 74,735 75,382 76,011 76,091 76,987
33 65,404 67,837 66,887 67,523 66,742 67,928 68,500
34 24,768 .28,457 30,027 32,265 33,229 34,694 37,392
35 29,342 33,502 44,331 52,568 53,658 54,438 56,104
36 58,628 63,030 63,068 63,844 63,063 63,986 65,763
37 52,770 53,390 53,511 52,758 53,009 53,051 53,792
38 33,942 38,270 39,778 41,965 43,649 45,762 46,531
39 24,516 26,935 28,029 28,422 28,571 30,548 32,357
40 96,530 108,196 119,141 121,410 122,397 125,670 128,786
41 53,421 $9,182 64,137 68,914 70,451 71,005 72,437
42 49,695 51,077 50,057 50,231 49,922 49,975 50,876
43 11,909 14,992 18,394 23,279 27,038 30,005 32,605
44 47,679 50,558 56,033 56,767 56,064 56,126 56,012
45 40,342 43,050 44,434 46,320 47,200 48,289 48,603
46 35,824 37,238 37,295 38,600 39,630 40,566 40,793
C-1
TABLE C-1
CAA-LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS (Continued)
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
47 26,721 29,136 320318 35,794 370945 38,732 39,169
48 0 0 510 507 505 507 507
49 1,670 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150
50 20,078 28,118 39,410 48,912 57,956 65,860 72,316
51 31,347 40,925 52,372 64,055 730111 76,606 80,367
52 11,787 16,087 26,640 430657 620501 77,106 87,745
53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
54 71760 7,838 7,838 7,838 7,838 7,838 74838
55 1,254 1,350 1,913 2,522 3,090 3,680 4,679
56 10594 5,206 13,852 20,512 29,556 31,403 32,581
57 240139 250136 25,092 250123 24,973 25,000 25,537
58 65,499 79,535 90,549 95,691 95,529 94,967 950022
59 1,066 4,075 14,242 24,853 390791 55$ 89 70,809
60 1,602 10798 2,852 505" 8,161 10,861 13,672
61 19,301 200134 21,433 22,953 230741 24,629 25,528
62 30,854 340604 37,260 380739 410180 38,928 380726
63 50646 12,326 25,137 41,045 55,935 65,705 71,199
64 17,818 24,782 30,960 39,589 450941 51,419 55,251
65 4,499 4,929 40883 40922 4,903 4,907 4,871
66 5,012 5$ 68 5,514 5,872 5,996 60113 6,195
67 4,988 5,334 5$651 5,927 60044 60201 61316
68 230444 27,655 28,666 300410 310461 32,696 330768
69 23,134 25,988 280296 300943 33,199 35,702 37,946
TOTAL 1,932,709 20130,200 2,306,700 2,469,400 20605,400 2,7220600 208310100
C-2
TABLE C-2
CAA-LEVEL HOUSING PROJECTIONS
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 15,123 15,660 15,910 16,271 16,836 16,899 16,918
2 8,762 9,882 10,630 11,285 12,079 12,661 13,508
3 3,199 3,643 4,088 5,738 7,396 8,437 9,482
4 16,047 17,624 19,271 20,056 21,015 21,738 22,830
5 11,997 12,200 12,444 12,739 13,273 13,383 13,591
6 12,649 12,734 12,845 13,149 13,697 13,819 14,053
7 10,924 11,600 12,698 12,839 12,958 13,099 13,248
8 3,986 4,174 4,229 4,269 4,309 4,349 4,389
9 6,582 8,657 12,528 15,050 17,061 17,309 17,411
10 4,094 4,295 4,435 4,476 4,494 4,524 4,585
11 8,820 9,093 9,469 9,514 9,674 9,867 10,806
12 14,821 15,317 16,117 16,381 16,601 17,027 17,160
13 19,216 20,015 20,224 20,819 21,236 21,692 22,051
14 18,333 19,465 19,986 20,342 20,762 21,388 22,329
15 15,300 15,700 16,252 16,594 17,057 18,249 19,483
16 14,665 15,306 15,618 15,806 16,017 16,383 16,758
17 6,778 7,362 7,676 7,839 8,243 8,771 9,288
18 7,235 8,679 11,869 15,177 18,417 21,507 23,108
19 14,535 14,886 15,587 15,739 15,810 15,906 16,000
20 4,543 4,564 4,573 4,578 4,584 4,587 4,594
21 5,641 5,845 6,219 6,312 6,537 6,589 6,655
22 9,722 10,038 10,573 10,784 10,932 11,030 11,117
23 5,224 5,344 5,451 5,548 5,655 5,708 5,763
24 24,315 25,397 25,832 26,127 26,690 27,314 27,868
25 18,100 18,935 19,064 19,380 19,751 20,136 20,331
26 7,048 7,595 8,214 8,340 8,471 8,530 9,129
27 10,512 10,851 10,925 11,162 11,195 11,248 11,375
28 18,164 19,245 20,712 21,421 22,282 22,946 23,358
29 572 885 2,412 4,288 6,316 8,428 9,274
30 1,989 2,041 2,124 2,136 2,138 2,143 2,147
31 11,206 12,068 12,708 12,752 12,985 13,114 13,249
32 25,061 25,791 26,438 27,055 27,670 27,939 28,223
33 22,682 22,954 23,083 23,734 23,798 24,350 24,911
34 10,757 11,960 13,049 14,529 15,348 16,457 17,472
35 13,165 14,826 19,997 24,153 24,954 25,577 26,280
36 20,009 21,043 21,532 22,128 22,129 22,681 23,241
37 16,158 16,458 16,693 16,849 17,016 17,182 17,524
38 10,234 10,975 11,227 11,986 12,759 13,265 13,684
39 10,562 10,953 11,098 11,108 11,843 12,569 13,285
40 28,192 29,807 32,251 33,376 34,343 35,278 36,078
41 20,285 21,376 23,706 24,898 25,898 26,458 27,228
42 19,576 19,916 19,999 20,319 20,470 20,673 20,904
43 3,541 4,441 5,544 7,054 8,301 9,290 10,212
44 17,906 18,624 21,121 21,621 21,721 21,971 22,071
45 18,479 19,264 20,319 21,374 22,129 23,089 23,844
C-3
TABLE C-2
CAA-LEVEL HOUSING PROJECTIONS (Continued)
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
46 19,536 19,832 20,032 200772 21,412 21,912 220162
47 12,171 12,014 140460 16,339 17,408 17,769 18,069
48 0 0 260 260 260 260 260
49 136 874 874 874 874 874 874
50 6,828 9,466 130408 170134 20,67O 230699 26,094
51 11,401 15,028 190597 24,143 28,340 290822 31,513
52 40519 6,142 10,373 17,027 25,030 31,048 35,557
53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
54 1,257 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256
55 596 620 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,300
56 492 19600 4,600 6,900 10,600 110600 12,100
57 8,013 8,271 80460 8,560 8,660 8,760 90020
58 22,608 27,503 320387 340275 34,713 95,251 35,460
59 704 1,384 50212 90444 15,776 22,508 29,040
60 472 622 1,041 2,121 3,251 4,381 5,560
61 10,210 10$ 79 11,373 12,328 12,997 13,644 140265
62 17,765 19,578 21,606 22,700 23,200 23,500 230700
63 21106 4,405 90815 16,122 220076 26,115 280625
64 7,467 9,909 121733 16,452 19,416 21,957 23,973
65 20647 2,753 2,797 2,847 2,885 2,918 2,942
66 2,627 20800 2,950 3,175 30300 3,400 31500
67 20310 2,356 2,556 20706 2,806 20906 3,006
68 9,655 11,357 12,067 12,927 13,637 14,337 15,029
69 11,285 12,363 13,003 150243 160683 18,123 19,560
TOTAL 721,514 779,000 8598300 931,900 999,600 1,053,400 1,100,700
C-4
J
TABLE C-3
CAA-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 15,568 18,193 18,905 19,699 19,764 20,250 20,472
2 11,070 13,108 15,171 16,051 16,104 16,625 16,705
3 4,122 5,432 6,325 7,052 7,930 8,316 8,572
4 21,368 25,199 25,791 26,874 26,962 27,750 27,883
5 8,946 11,300 11,320 12,768 12,810 13,000 13,063
6 40,823 45,200 45,513 46,208 46,360 47,375 47,477
7 5,300 6,451 7,304 7,462 7,499 7,503 7,536
8 2,782 3,598 3,840 4,018 4,224 4,248 4,333
9 1,989 4,753 5,689 7,312 8,820 9,776 10,657
10 3,802 4,376 4,592 4,944 4,988 5,161 5,402
11 16,990 20,323 21,296 22,817 23,626 24,660 25,909
12 14,264 14,790 15,960 16,708 17,237 18,214 19,321
13 14,039 17,980 18,307 18,893 19,171 19,608 20,140
14 25,692 33,982 37,187 39,360 39,940 41,486 42,612
15 24,754 35,421 36,996 37,982 38,342 39,423 40,280
16 31,465 32,544 34,326 35,030 35,347 36,326 37,100
17 34,421 40,604 42,168 43,386 43,911 44,661 45,166
18 4,098 5,636 7,715 9,610 10,465 12,318 14,186
19 9,077 17,264 18,899 20,805 21,819 21,899 22,153
20 1,554 1,577 1,697 1,820 1,882 1,940 2,023
21 9,380 9,470 10,356 10,806 10,948 11,026 11,592
22 6,228 8,271 8,391 8,462 8,587 8,875 9,116
23 2,562 3,057 3,242 3,346 3,394 3,509 3,604
24 22,236 26,970 28,986 29,717 30,156 31,166 31,800
25 16,345 21,575 23,265 24,010 24,763 26,007 27,348
26 37,194 53,854 66,988 74,455 78,501 81,166 84,425
27 16,623 18,978 19,220 19,818 20,084 20,462 20,822
26 13,524 14,888 15,244 16,006 16,214 16,843 17,813
29 262 1,426 2,259 3,160 3,351 3,578 3,750
30 1,417 1,589 1,759 1,916 1,994 2,091 2,525
31 5,819 7,721 8,169 8,225 8,344 8,735 9,078
32 19,436 26,856 27,775 27,965 28,131 29,371 30,972
33 29,571 34,465 35,010 35,133 35,641 36,587 38,181
34 3,385 3,469 3,501 3,525 3,695 4,178 4,272
35 7,960 10,854 12,720 12,925 13,350 16,078 17,622
36 9,182 10,518 10,853 10,926 10,966 11,394 12,015
37 17,538 18,017 18,672 18,801 19,073 20,257 21,360
38 5,055 6,269 6,493 6,644 6,860 7,125 7,730
39 17,517 24,291 24,842 25,972 26,503 27,208 28,232
40 35,524 45,667 47,815 51,087 52,438 56,606 60,545
41 55,452 68,915 71,528 76,153 77,694 79,603 80,374
42 23,441 26,098 27,601 28,888 29,497 30,300 30,750
43 1,276 651 810 1,061 2,015 2,496 2,884
44 27,965 43,150 56,284 56,655 57,585 62,835 67,312
45 17,902 19,573 20,573 21,573 22,273 22,873 23,473
46 19,195 19,958 20,458 20,958 21,456 21,958 22,458
47 25,966 27,500 28,500 29,000 29,200 29,350 29,500
C-5
TABLE C-3
CM-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS (Continued)
CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
48 46,364 60,868 63,942 71,863 72,535 73,733 74,B00
49 45,897 51,859 670000 73,946 78,546 82,546 $70000
50 9,023 9,851 10,943 14,551 16,751 18,251 190657
51 4,176 9,054 17,380 18,880 200380 220680 240000
52 5,391 2,000 20800 6,000 8,000 10,000 13,000
53 1,052 13,000 23,633 30,187 330187 34,687 36,800
54 20176 3,287 30287 6,287 9,287 11,287 12,000
55 169 250 450 $50 850 950 1,050
56 81 194 16322 10,000 16,000 17,000 18,000
57 4,465 4,028 4,628 40928 50228 51500 5,700
58 14,558 17,078 18,200 21,000 24,000 24,500 25,000
59 10827 1,900 2,SOO 4,822 7,022 81850 100550
60 104 350 500 10000 11500 2,000 2,600
61 80136 70666 8$ 80 8,SOO 8,650 8,800 8,902
62 80304 11,939 14,019 17,170 19,170 190610 20,222
63 3,308 3,448 8,834 19,388 30,603 36,433 41,314
64 2,886 3,382 5,527 80027 9,027 96627 10,111
65 10746 1040 1,865 1,890 1,925 10965 1,990
66 2,183 2,250 2,300 213SO 2,550 2,750 2,920
67 1,192 1,534 1,634 1,734 1,834 1,914 10984
68 7,040 7,162 7,662 8,462 9,162 9,662 9,957
69 5,655 5,979 71479 8,979 10,479 11,579 120500
TOTAL 9150812 10130,700 1,254,600 1,366,600 1,436,600 1,S06j6OQ 1,570,500
C-6
COMMUNITY ANALYSIS AREAS
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TABLE D-1
RSA PROFILE DATA
1980 LAND USE CHARACTERISTICS
-------------------------------------
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
PERCENT OF LAND IN LAND IN LAND IN PERCENT OF
TOTAL TOTAL COUNTY RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL LAND IN
RBA ACREAGE --- ACREAGE---------- USE---------- USE---------- USE PUBLIC USE
----------------------- ---------
A-36 23,628 4.6 31.3 6. 5 8. 8 6.4
B-41 67, 126 13. 1 14.3 0. 7 2. 9 1. 1
C-43 151,000 29.6 5. 1 0. 5 0.2 0. 7
D-40 57,754 11.3 19.8 2. 6 0. 7 1. 4
E-44 43, 130 8.4 6.3 1. 1 5. 5 0. 8
F-39 39,1102 7.8 26. 1 7. 4 3. 7 4.9
G-42 42,03B 8.2 $5. 1 9. 5 10. 0 5. 6
H-37 30,892 6. 1 61. 5 10.0 8. 1 7. 6
I-38 38,420 7. 5 47. 1 6. 1 5. 0 5.4
J-35 16,732 3.3 52.2 7.9 6. 1 6.9
TOTAL
COUNTY 510,522 100. 0
24. i 3. 7 3. 5 2.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D-1
i
TABLE 0-1 Continued
-------------------------....----...........n..----»-----------r-----..---------------.........r-loll,
PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT
PERCENT OF OF LAND IN OF LAND IN OP LAND IN OF VACANT
LAND IN OPEN UNCOHNITTED AGRICULTURAL EXTRACTIVE PERCENT OF LAND WITH
RSA SPACE Use USES USE UK LAND VACANT > 30% SLOPE
-..--------------------------------------------------`------------------"'------------------"
A-36 3.0 20. 3 1.7 9. 4 10.3 0.0
8-41 10.4 63.0 3.2 5.6 $6.3 18.4
C-49 48. 1 43.7 0. 1 0. 3 38.2 6.4
D-40 3. 1 70. 0 1. 5 0.0 ". S 14.8
E-44 14.0 $7.0 32. 0 0.3 94. 3 2.7
F-39 7.2 41.6 1.9 1.3 30.4 2. 1
0-42 9. 3 12.6 3.6 0.6 9.4 1. 5
H-37 2.0 4. 0 1.7 0. 1 2.8 0.0
I-38 6.8 12.S 2. 1 4. 8 5.6 0.0
J-38 7.4 7.6 3.8 0.0 3.6 0.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL
COUNTY 19.0 40.9 3.7 1.9 33. 4 4. 3
--------------------------------"--------------------------------------------------------
D-2
TABLE D-1 Continued
1980 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
PERCENT PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
OF TOTAL PERCENT OF PERCENT OF POPULATION POP. ASIAN POPULATION
TOTAL COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION OF SPANISH & PACIFIC NATIVE
RSA POPULATION POPULATION WHITE BLACK ORIGIN ISLANDER AMERICAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A-36 168,782 8.7 86.6 1. 1 16. 0 3. 7 0. 6
B-41 116,686 6. 0 88.9 1.2 12. 2 4. 1 0.6
C-43 95,954 5. 0 93. 4 0.8 6. 4 3. 2 0.6
D-40 1340696 7. 0 95. 1 0. 5 6. 3 1. 7 0.6
E-44 52, 564 2. 7 84.2 3.7 8. 8 7.2 0. 5
F-39 170,644 0.8 92. 5 0. 7 6. 8 3.6 0. 5
0-42 377,316 19. 5 76.3 2. 7 29.3 4. 4 0.7
H-37 338,682 17. 5 85. 4 1.0 16. 4 4. 9 0.8
1-38 321, 137 16.6 89. 1 0. 7 8. 5 5. 8 0. 7
J-35 156,248 8. 1 87. 1 1. 2 13. 3 5. 6 0. 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL
COUNTY 1,932,709 100.0 85.9 1.3 14.8 4. 5 0. 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D-3
i
I
1
TABLE D-i Continued
I
---------------------------------..---------------------------------------_----------------
PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT % MOVED PERCENT
OF POPU- OF POPU- MIGRATED MIGRATED FROM PERCENT INCREASE
LATION LATION FROM FROM ORANGE IN SAME PERCENT IN POPU-
FERTILITY DEATH UNDER OVER ABROAD OTHER US COUNTY HOUSE FOREIGN LATION
RBA RATE RATE AGE 18 AGE 65 S YR AGO S YR AGO S YR AGO 1975-60 BORN 1980-64
--------------------------------------------------------------,...---------------------------
A-36 62.9 6.2 25. 7 0. 1 3. 2 26.8 23. 9 45. 1 11.4 3. 2
6-41 35.3 3. 3 32. 3 3.6 2.3 25.4 34.6 37.3 9. 7 10. 0
C-43 60. 7 3.4 33. 0 4.9 2.7 35. 7 34. 0 27.6 9. 1 16.5
D-40 57.2 10. 9 19. 4 23.0 2. 2 30. 8 26. 0 38. 3 10. 3 13. 6
E-44 40. 8 2.4 29. 6 2.6 4. 5 46. 1 32. 1 17. 3 12. 0 24.8
F-39 42. 6 4.0 20. 1 0. 9 4. 3 25. 0 32. 3 38. S 11. 2 6. 2
9-42 90.2 6.0 29. 3 7.2 7. 9 17. 6 32. 11 41. 7 21. 5 6. 5
H-37 76. 1 6.9 26. 4 8. 3 4. 9 20.9 30. 3 44.7 13.7 4.9
1-30 $2. 4 6. 1 27. 9 2.4 3.7 26. 5 26. 2 43. 6 11. 0 3. 4
--35---._-- S 5.4--_29 3---_--5.4-------------- 26. 0------ 7 --'-- 10. 2----_- -------1
TOTAL
COUNTY 45.0 6.9 27.2 9. 3 4. 5 24.9 29.4 41.4 1313 6.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _ __-
D-4
TABLE D-1 Continued
1980 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DWELLING
PERCENT PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT UNITS PERSONS
TOTAL OF TOTAL HOUSING HOUSING HOUSING INCREASE PER PER
DWELLING COUNTY SINGLE MULTIPLE MOBILE IN UNITS REBID. DWELLING
RSA UNITS HOUSING FAMILY FAMILY HOMES 1980-84 ACRE UNIT
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A-36 64,578 9.0 61.9 34.6 3.4 4. 5 3.32 2.61
8-41 39,276 5. 4 74.0 23.0 3. 0 9. 5 4.08 2.97
C-43 32,885 4. 6 85.8 10. 4 3.7 16.9 . 4. 23 2.92
D-40 66,072 9. 2 56.8 39. 9 3. 3 10. 1 5.77 2.04
E-44 17,313 2. 4 79. 1 16.9 4.0 24.9 6. 33 3.04
F-39 74,920 10. 4 55. 1 42. 5 2.4 4.3 7.21 2.28
0-42 130, 103 18.0 58. 5 37.8 3.8 3.0 5.61 2.90
H-37 124,875 17.3 54. 6 40.3 5. 0 2. 7 6. 57 2.71
I-38 119,038 16. 3 61.7 33.6 4. 7 3.2 6. 57 2. 70
J-33 321454 7.3 72. 1 26.4 1. 5 1. 4 6.01 2.98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL
COUNTY 721,514 100.0 61.7 34.6 3. 7 5.3 3.86 2.68
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D-5
1
TABLE D-1 Continued
--------r------------------ r---r-------...---------------------------r-------r------
PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT
MEDIAN OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS
MEDIAN NONE RENTER BUILT BUILT BUILT BUILT
RSA RENT VALUE OCCUPIED 1970-1900 1960-1969 1950-1969 BEFORE 1949
r-r------ -------------rr-,--- w r w wr--w-----------------rrrr r ---- ---w--------
A-34 $297 $95,236 40. 5 30. 1 31.2 29.3 9. 4
B-41 $394 ♦126,557 24. 7 64. 5 213.3 4. 1 3. 1
C-43 $453 0130,509 17.6 02. 4 1517 0. 6 1.3
D-40 ►373 $144,040 30.9 30. 5 30.0 9.8 9.6
E-44 0419 0132,464 29.2 90. 5 4. 1 2.6 2.8
F-39 $371 ♦145,042 51. 4 35. 7 33.9 20.2 10.9
0-42 $319 $90,356 45.0 30.7 36.9 20.0 12. 5
H-37 0300 007,303 46.9 23. 7 34.S 33.2 6.3
I-3W $357 •113, 191 36. 6 41.0 45.9 9.2 4. 1
J-35 0337 099,910 33.9 29. 0 42. 4 23.7 4.9
----w---rr--------------------------------^-------------------r-----..-..-------------------
TOTAL
COUNTY 0336 $106, 100 39. 5 39.0 34.6 18.9 7. 5
-------rr------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I ,
I
i 1
n-6
TABLE D-1 Continued
1980 EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS
-----------------------------------
PERCENT
TOTAL OF TOTAL
RSA JOBS COUNTY JOBS
------------------------------------------
A-36 97,775 10. 7
8-41 52,974 5. 8
C-43 21,204 2.3
D-40 40,450 4.4
E-44 58,692 6.4
F-39 146,415 16. 0
0-42 207,023 22. 6
H-37 143,321 10.6
I-38 92,891 10. 1
J-30 05,067 6.0
-----------------------------------------
TOTAL
COUNTY 915,812 100.0
-----------------------------------------
SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1980 CENSUS
D-7
A
LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS
Residential. Single and multiple family residences; mobile
homes and mobile home parks including any vacant spaces;
estates, ranches, farmsteads, and vacation homes.
Commercial. Regional shopping complexes; areas of various
services 1ocated along major highways and traffic corridors;
neighborhood shopping centers; commercial storage areas;
commercial offices providing financial business,
professional, and non-professional services, wholesale sales
offices and showrooms; major hotels and motels; sports
stadiums, race tracks, amusement parks, drive-in theaters,
fairgrounds, etc.
Industrial. Industrial and manufacturing facilities
including research and development facilities, assembly
plants, foundries, smelters, processing plans, wrecking
yards, motion picture and television studios and sets,
warehouses, and wholesale shipping centers; major oil
refineries and associated Petro-chemical plants.
Public/Institutional. Includes all government offices and
facilities, health care facilities, special institutional
facilities, emergency response facilities, and religious
facilities. Among these are civil offices, jails, post
offices, courts, libraries, hospitals, clinics, sanitariums,
police and fire stations, churches, temples, public and
private schools, universities, colleges, etc.
o en S ace/Recreation. Beaches; local and regional parks,
nat ,ona orests; golf courses; cemeteries, wildlife
preserves; recreational marinas; public and private
campgrounds.
Other Committed or Urban Uses. Transportation facilities
'iucb as airports; train term pals, stations and rights-of-
way which exceed 200 feet in width; harbor facilities,
docks, and ship repair and dredging operations; freeways,
interchanges and highways exceeding 200 feet in width,
Communication facilities such as radio, television and
telephone communications facilities; broadcast towers and
associated buildings; transportation and communication
corridor zones. Utilities, including power-generating
plants and substations; power lines and rights of way
exceeding 200' in width; solid and liquid waste disposal
facilities; domestic water reservoirs; gas and petroleum
distribution systems. Military lands and installations
owned, operated or controlled by any branch of the U.S.
armed forces or the California National Guard. Lakes,
D-8
lagoons, pumping plants, flood control channels and natural
stream courses which perennially exceed 200 feet in width.
Agriculture. Field crops; truck crops; orchards; vineyards;
fenced rangelands; dairy facilities; feed lots; slaughter
yards; poultry and horse ranches; commercial greenhouses.
Extraction. Oil and gas extraction and associated storage
facilities; mineral extraction activities, including rock
products, sand, gravel, metals, and other non-metals.
Vacant and Undeveloped Land. Includes unimproved lands as
well as those with existing infrastructure, such as streets,
sewers, lighting, etc.
D-9
DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS STEERING COMMITTEE
LARRY PARRISH County Administrative Office
BRAD GATES Sheriff-Coroner
LARRY HOLMS Fire Department
LARRY LEAMAN Social Services Agency
STAN OFTELIE Orange County Transportation Commission
JAMES REICHERT Orange County Transportation District
MURRAY STORM Environmental Management Agency
THOMAS URAM Health Care Agency 0
S RECEIuE ) �\
JAN161986. �
i NEi"Pe"T C !LK 1
PREPARED BY: i c-L"
ti
THE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE
Larry Parrish , County Administrative Officer
FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER
Bob Wilson, Manager
ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA
1985