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Home My WebLink AboutOCP-85*NEW FILE* OCP=85 � U NTY O F LARRY P COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVERATIVE ARRISH OFFICER ROBERT E THOMAS HALL OF ADMINISTRATION 10 CIVIC CENTER PLAZA, SANTA ANA, CA 92701 '01,RAN G E 1714) 834-2345 COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE )- January 15, 1986 ✓qN 0�, n-nt N Cirri 1986 a Ms. Sandy Gennis �t/P Ch, Planning Department >> City of Newport Beach o 3300 W. Newport Blvd. Newport Beach, CA 92663 Dear Ms. Gennis: The County Administrative Office has recently published a report on the OCP-85 projections. I've enclosed a copy for your department's use. These RSA -level projections were developed based, in part, upon information provided by your city. In addition to the projections, this report contains analyses of demographic and land use trends that may be of interest to you. Your assistance in the data collection and review phases of developing these projections is greatly appreciated. As always, feel free to contact this office if we can be of assistance to you. Best wishes for 1986. Sincerely, William F. Gay Chief County [ MAS:jm Enclosure er OCP-SS Orange County Preferred Projections 1985 0CPiw85 Orange County Preferred Projections 1985 Board of Supervisors THOMAS F. RILEY, Chairman . Fifth District ROGER R. STANTON First District HARRIETT M. WIEDER Second District BRUCE NESTANDE Third District RALPH B. CLARK Fourth District TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ............................................... 1 Countywide Projections ..................................... 3 RSAMap ............................................... 18 RSAProfiles ............................................... 19 RSAA-3.6.............................................. 23 RSAB-41.............................................. 33 RSAC-43.............................................. 43 RSAD-40.............................................. 55 RSAE-44.............................................. 67 RSAF-39.............................................. 79 RSAG-42.............................................. 91 RSAH-37.............................................. 101 RSAI-38.............................................. 113 RSAJ-35.............................................. 123 Appendices Appendix A: Population and Housing Projection Methodology ............................ A-1 Appendix B: Employment Projection Methodology ........ B-1 Appendix C: CAA -level Projections and Map ............ C-1 Appendix D: RSA Profile Data ......................... D-1 INTRODUCTION Background. Orange County Preferred Projections, 1985 (OCP-85) was adopted by the Board of Supervisors on February 19, 1985, as the County's official policy projections. OCP-85 includes Countywide and Regional Statistical Area (RSA) population, housing and employment projections. This is a major revision of Orange County Preferred -III (OCP-III), which had been the County's adopted population and housing projections since September, 1981. The Board of Supervisors, in Resolution 84-575, directed the County Administrative Office/Forecast and Analysis Center to review OCP-III and to determine the extent of changes necessary. This review included the effects of the latest economic recession on the housing industry, information provided by development project proponents, and input provided by cities and major landholders. Development of both the underlying assumptions and the actual projections were coordinated through the Demographic Projections Steering Committee. OCP-85 expands the Orange County Preferred Projections (OCP) series in two ways. First, the projections were extended out to the year 2010. The previous iterations of OCP projected to the year 2000, which is now less than 15 years in the future. This current iteration provides a long range horizon needed for a variety of County planning efforts. In addition, the 2010 horizon conforms with SCAG-82 Modified, which is the most recent regional growth forecast approved by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Executive Committee. The second enhancement is the addition of employment projections. Employment is a key variable, especially in transportation planning. Contents and Format. Five-year increments of population, housing and employment projections are presented for the County, RSAs, and Community Analysis Areas (CAAs). The RSA is the geographical unit developed by SCAG. For the most part, these aggregates of census tracts from the 55 statistical areas in the six -county area. The CAAs, smaller groupings of census tracts which themselves aggregate to RSAs, are 69 areas within Orange County used for a variety of data collection and planning efforts. The CAA -level projections, although not formally adopted by the Board, are consistent with OCP-85. The assumptions that underlie these projections are presented at the Countywide and RSA levels. An assumption, as the term is used here, is a premise regarding a condition, event or trend which, based on present policy, knowledge or judgement, will likely occur. Consequently, if a major land use policy were to change, relevant assumptions and the projections themselves would warrant revisions. Demographic and land use profiles are also provided at the Countywide and RSA levels. These profiles focus on some key indicators related to growth and development. Finally, this report includes Appendices A and B which describe the various methodologies and processes used to develop these projections. Appendix C lists CAA -level projections in addition to a Countywide map of Community Analysis Areas. Appendix b provides RSA -level land use, population, housing, and employment data described in the RSA profiles. Countywide Projections OVERVIEW Population. Orange County's population is projected to increase from 1.9 million in 1980 to 2.8 million by 2010, or by approximately 900,000 persons (see Table 1). On the average, this is the addition of 30,000 persons annually, or a simple average increase of 1.5 percent per year. The majority of the growth is projected to occur in the southern regions of Orange County. Of the 900,000-person total population increase, 56 percent will occur in the four south Orange County RSAs (C-43, D-40, E-44, and F-39), while the remaining growth will occur in north Orange County in RSAs A-36, B-411 G-42, H-37, I-38, and J-35. Nevertheless, north Orange County will remain the more populous region of the County. In the year 2010, this region is projected to contain 66 percent of the total population, compared to 34 percent for south Orange County. Like the nation and the state, Orange County's population overall is growing older. The median age in the County will rise from the 1980 figure of 29.5 years to 40.6 in 2010. As a result, over half of Orange County's population will be over 40 years of age. This overall aging of the population is explained by a combination of increased life expectancy, aging of the "baby boom" population, and a relatively low fertility rate. People born today will, on the average, live longer than people born fifty years ago. This is primarily due to overall improvements in health care and nutrition. Statewide, life expectancy will rise from 74.7 years in 1980 to 76.8 by 2000, further increasing to 77.9 years in 2020. Life expectancy for females will rise from 78.3 years in 1980 to 80.6 by 2020, while male life expectancy will increase from 71.1 years in 1980 to 73.3 by 2020. The comparison of Figures 1 through 4 reveals the dramatic increase in the proportion of the population over 75, especially women. The "baby boom" is one of the most significant demographic phenomena to occur in this country. During a period starting shortly after World War II and ending in the early 1960s, an unprecedented number of persons were born. Figure 1, an age pyramid of Orange County's 1980 population, illustrates that the largest of the five-year cohorts is comprised of those aged 15 through 34. This group, numbering 732,465 in 1980, likewise predominated as the single largest concentration of persons in the age distribution as almost 38 percent of the County's population. Due to the shear size of this cohort, it is a very dominant feature of the population. As this group ages, it will significantly increase the average age of the County's population. This trend is apparent in the comparison of Figures 1 through 4 as the heavy concentration of persons in younger age groups shifts upward in age. 0 TABLE 1 POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENTt 1980 AND 2010 1980 2010 AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMERICAL PERCENT PERCENT NUMBER PERCENT NUMBER PERCENT CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE POPULATION North County * 1,478,851 76.5 11870,500 66.1 391,649 26.5 0.9 South County ** 453,858 23.5 960,600 33.9 506,742 111.7 3.7 Total County 1,932,709 100.0 2,831,100 100.0 898,391 46.5 1.5 HOUSING UNITS North County * 530,324 73.5 690,900 62.8 160,576 30.3 1.0 South County ** 191,190 26.5 409,800 37.2 218,610 114.3 3.8 Total County 721,514 100.0 1,100,700 100.0 379,186 52.6 1.8 EMPLOYMENT North County * 649,051 70.9 987,800 62.9 338,749 52.2 1.7 South County ** 226,761 29.1 582,700 37.1 3150939 118.4 3.9 Total County 915,812 100.0 1,5701500 100.0 654,688 71.5 2.4 * RSA's A-36, B-41, G-42, H-371 I-38, and J-35 ** BSA's C-43, D-40, E-44, and P-39 3 Orange County's fertility rate has been relatively stable over recent years despite the number of births having risen steadily in the past ten years. This increase is due mostly to the "baby boomers" in their prime child-bearing ages. Even though the rate is below that of the mid-1960s, this large number of people at child-bearing ages has resulted recently in a minor baby boom also known as an "echo" effect. Figure 2 shows a second, smaller surge in births between 1980 and 1985, the cohort then aged 5 through 9. After 1985, there will be a continued decline in the number of births. The net effect will be proportionately few younger people with a greater portion of the population being older, primarily between the ages of 40 and 69. By the year 2010, as portrayed in Figure 4, the shape of the age pyramid will approach the classic "beehive" configuration. Traditionally, this implies that a population has attained zero population growth and is approaching a rate below replacement, discounting migration. Primarily due to the "baby boom" and "echo" effects, about one-third of Orange County's population will be of age to participate in the labor force. A significant proportion of the population will be between the ages of 45 and 59, and within five to ten years, presumably be ready for retirement. Because a greater share of the population will be retired or already working, the number of new entrants to the labor force will diminish. If the pattern between 1970 and 1980 is any indication, Orange County will also become more ethnically and racially diverse. In 1970, slightly over 10 percent of Orange County's population was identified as non-White or Hispanic. By 1980, this segment had increased to 20 percent. Seven racial groups had a population greater than 10,000 in 1980. These included Blacks, Japanese, Vietnamese, Chinese, American Indians, Koreans and Filipinos. The Spanish origin population represented about 15 percen•t of the County's population in 1980. There are several reasons why this trend is likely to continue. First, there has been a noticeable decrease in interstate migration to California. During the 1950s and 1960s, more'people migrated to California than any other state. During the 1970s, however, other sunbelt states' share of interstate migration rocketed and exceeded California's. For example, between 1960 and 1970, the combined net migration of Texas and Florida equaled approximately 1 million persons compared to 1.7 million for California. Between 1970 and 1980, the combined net migration for these two states was 4 million while California's was 1.6 million. California's three neighboring states of Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon together attracted almost as many people, 1.2 million, as California. The economic and demographic factors that caused the shift are likely to persist into the future. 7 1980 POPULATION PYRAMID DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER FEMALE OVER 75 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 3% 0 MALE 0 3% PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION EOURCE: $TAT& OEPANTNENT OF FINANCE, POPULATION RESEARCH UNIT 5% 1 Figure 1 1990 POPULATION PYRAMID DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER FEMALE OVER 75 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 3% 0 MALE 0 3% 5% PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION SOURCE: STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE, POPULATION RESEARCH UNIT Figure 2 2000 POPULATION PYRAMID DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER FEMALE OVER 75 70-74 65-69 60-64 55- 69 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 3% 0 MALE 0 3% PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION 8"CE: iTATIt WAMTMHT CR f/WWCK, PopWAT1CN $49KAICH UH1T 6% Figure 3 2010 POPULATION PYRAMID DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER FEMALE OVER 75 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 3% 0 MALE 0 3% 5% PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION SOURCE: STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE, PDPULATION RESEARCH UNIT Figure 4 Secondly, there has been a long term shift in the origin of immigrants to the United States. Between 1950 and 1960, over 70 percent of the immigrants came from Europe or Canada; during the 1960s these countries accounted for 46 percent. By the 1970s just slightly over 20 percent came from Canada and Europe while an increasing number of immigrants have been coming from Asia and the other American nations. The immigration from Asian nations has jumped from 6.2 percent of total immigrants during the 1950s to over 36 percent during the 1970s. Similarly, the influx from the Americas has increased from 20 to 34 percent, with the majority coming from Mexico. Not only has the percentage shifted, but the volume of international migration has also changed. Immigration to the U.S. has increased during this period from about 2.5 million to about 4.5 million. As indicated in a recent SCAG report, "Southern California: A Region in Transition," one-half of California's growth is due to immigration; specifically, a third of all Asians, two -fifths of all Central Americans and 50 percent of all Mexicans immigrating to the United States settle in California. The effect in Orange County is clear: in 1970, nearly 85,000 persons were foreign born, while in 1980, over 257,000 persons were foreign born. A third reason for the expected trend toward greater ethnic and racial diversity is the slower growth of the non -Hispanic White population relative to other ethnic groups. Besides lower birth rates among non -Hispanic Whites, a higher proportion of the Blacks, American Indians, Asians, Pacific Islanders, and persons of Spanish origin will be at prime children bearing ages over the next 20 years. This is reflected in the age distributions of each of these groups in 1980. Approximately 18 percent of the non -Hispanic Whites were aged 5 to 17, compared to 24 percent of the Blacks, 24 percent of American Indians, Eskimos and Aleuts, 25 percent of Asians and Pacific Islanders, and 27 percent of those of Spanish origin. Thus, each of these groups should grow at a faster rate than non -Hispanic Whites because of higher birth rates and higher percentages reaching child-bearing age in years to come. Housing._ Between 1980 and 2010, housing in Orange County is projected to increase by approximately 379,000 units, an average of 12,600 new units per year. At a simple average increase of 1.8 percent per year, this rate is slightly higher than the rate of population increase, due to the gradual decline in the average household size projected Countywide. Approximately 58 percent of the projected increase in dwelling units will be added in the four south County RSAs. This is similar to the distribution of projected population in the County, since new housing directly results in added population. South County, with a 114 percent increase in units projected over thirty years, will grow at a significantly higher rate than the northern portion. Housing units in the six north County RSAs are projected to increase by only 30 percent during this period. 12 While the single family detached unit will continue to play an important role in the County's housing market, the share of multiple family units will increase over the projection period. The demand for smaller and more affordable multiple family units will increase to serve the needs of the projected smaller households. Such units will be attractive to singles living alone, singles sharing living quarters, single parents, childless couples, and couples with a single child. All these groups are expected to increase during the projection period. Redevelopment will also be responsible for additions to the County's housing stock during the projection period. Given the age of the current housing stock, 22 percent of all housing units in the County will be more than 40 years old by the year 2000. By 2010, over half of the County's dwelling units will be more than 40 years old. Privately instituted and government sponsored redevelopment efforts will continue concentrating on the older areas in north County. Selected redevelopment will also extend to some older housing in south County. Typically, redevelopment will recycle the old housing stock to higher densities. Employment. The employment growth rate forecast over the thirty-year period of these projections will be significantly higher than the increases projected for population and housing. The employment base of the County is projected to grow by 654,688 jobs, or nearly 71.5 percent during this thirty year period, while increases of 46 percent and 53 percent are projected for population and housing respectively. This represents an average annual increase in employment of 2.4 percent. it is interesting to note that while the largest share of the projected increases of population and housing occur in the south County RSAs, employment growth will be slightly higher in the north County RSAs. Specifically, 338,749 jobs are projected to be added in north County, while 315,939 jobs are projected in south County during this period. Orange County's employment base, like that of the state and the nation, has been changing and is expected to do so throughout the projection period. While the manufacturing sector will continue to represent a significant portion of County jobs, an increasing share of employment growth will occur in the services sector. High technology jobs will also play an important role in the goods -producing manufacturing sector and in information -based jobs in the services sector. The composition of the County's labor force is also experiencing change. Trends in various demographic characteristics indicate such changes according to recently completed forecasts by SCAG and other agencies. For example, the County's population structure is aging. The "baby boom" generation is comprised of over half of the individuals currently employed. These people, born between 1945 and 1965, will begin to reach retirement age as we move into the next century. Additionally, increased longevity may delay early retirement and may increase the frequency of 13 second careers. The ongoing increase of women in the labor force is expected to continue throughout the projection period. Trends such as these are responsible for an expanding labor force, accompanying a projected increase in jobs. 14 COUNTYWIDE GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. The Countywide and RSA level projections do not exceed that which would be allowable under the cities' and County's general plans, their elements, and related identified city and County land use and development policies. 2. The final portions of the available land in the County will achieve first generation build -out sometime after the year 2020, varying somewhat by geographic area. 3. Significant residential redevelopment will occur in the northwestern portion of the County throughout the period of these projections. 4. Significant intensification of employment activity will occur along major transportation corridors throughout the period of these projections. 5. There will be steady private sector recycling from single family to multi -family use in sections of the County throughout the period of these projections. 6. There will be an increase in overall development requirements to be satisfied as a condition of land use approvals, but with greater use of incentives and cost sharing techniques. 7. There will be a steady amount of developable land available through non -renewal of agricultural preserve contracts. Demographics 1. The population of California will continue to increase growing to approximately 37 million by 2020, while the SCAG region will reach 17.1 million. 2. The level of fertility will represent an average of 1.9 births per woman during her lifetime. 3. Total net migration into California will maintain an annual It average level of 167,000 persons, through the year 2010. 4. Net migration into Orange County will average 15,200 annually through 1990, dropping to an average of 15,100 between 1991 and 1995, then 14,300 between 1996 and 2000 and 13,900 annually after the year 2000. 15 5. The State Department of Financets (DOF) Baseline 83 population projection is consistent with the Countywide population projection. 6. Between 1980 and 2010, the County will grow at a simple average annual rate of 1.7 percent, or an average of approximately 30,000 per year from both natural increase and in -migration. 7. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will decrease from a 1980 Countywide figure of 2.68 to an average of 2.57 Countywide by the year 2010, with a sub -area range from 2.08 to 2.92. 8. The median income in the County will continue to be above that of the State and the nation. 9. The median age in the County will rise from 29.48 in 1980 to 40.55 in 2010. 10. An increasing proportion of in -migration will be due to the growth of the nonwhite and Hispanic populations. 11. International migration will account for a growing proportion of our net migration. 12. Due to the increasing number of foreign born, the persons -per -dwelling -unit in some areas of the County will increase. Public Services and Facilities 1. The availability of the essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will not generally impair population growth, but may slow development temporarily in newly developing areas. 2. El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, the Santa Ana Helicopter Facility, the Seal Beach Naval Weapons Station, and Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station will remain in government ownership and use until at least throughout the period of these projections. 3. All backbone system routes identified on the Master Plan of Arterial Highways will be built concurrent with or in advance or development either through developer dedication, road fee programs, or State/pederal highway funding. Economic Base 1. There will be no prolonged national or regional depression, but there may be recurring recessions. 2. There will be a continued market of home -buyers of an appropriate income range to sustain demand for housing in Orange County. 3. There will be a continued market of housing -renters to sustain demand for rental housing units in Orange County. 4. Federal housing and transportation programs will continue to facilitate migration into the region. 5. The future household income distribution will continue to be similar to that currently observed for the period of these projections. 6. Housing costs will increase more rapidly than the Consumer Price Index increases, but low and moderate income housing opportunities will continue. Employment 1. The labor force participation rate for the County will increase throughout the period of these projections. 2. Job growth in Orange County will proceed at a faster rate than in the United States, California, and the Los Angeles Basin up to the year 2000. 3. Jobs in Orange County will grow at the national rate after the year 2000. 4. The Los Angeles Basin will account for approximately 50 percent of California's employment growth. S. Most of the projected growth in jobs in Orange County will be in industries whose principle output is a variety of service activities with moderate growth in the production sectors. 6. Total County employment will grow at a simple average annual rate of 2.8 percent to 2000 and 0.9 percent between 2000 and 2010. 7. Countywide, there will be a balance of jobs to the labor force. 17 YlINJ9 fluA O 14Y9] 'l ri 31I1WfimlE 11MIP1 3pMY0 MY SVINVH IVDIlSIIVIS IVNOIDIS RSA Profiles OVERVIEW This section contains a profile of demographic, land use, and other growth -related trends for each RSA. A subset of these variables are graphically displayed in relation to Countywide rates for comparative purposes. Population, housing, and employment projections for the RSA and each CAA within it are presented in table form as well as map display. Finally, the growth assumptions developed for the RSA are given. Appendix D contains a table of the data used in these profiles and definitions of land use categories. 21 MiDOO BIM-r4MV aW LSv23WA 130I.id0 3AilVVjSTNIWV AIW100 W WY0 :33WIOB 9E-d VSN uigi!m SIVVD N iw RSA A-36 FULLERTON RSA A-36 is located in the northwest corner of Orange County and includes the cities of La Habra, Fullerton, and the western section of Brea. It is bordered on the north by Los Angeles County and is surrounded by the Orange County cities of Buena Park, Anaheim, Placentia, and -Brea. It extends as far south as the Riverside Freeway and as far east as the Orange Freeway. This area has a varied topography including coastal lowlands and several hilly areas. Specifically, the northeastern section of. RSA A-36 contains an extension of the Puente Hills, and the Coyote Hills are located in northern Fullerton and southwestern La Habra. To a large degree, continued oil production in these hilly regions will determine the potential future development of this RSA. This region, similar to much of Orange County, has evolved from a largely agrarian community to become a diverse and dynamic urban area. Presently, of the 23,628 acres that comprise RSA A-36, approximately one-half is devoted to residential use, 7 percent is commercial, 9 percent is industrial, and 4 percent is open space. Approximately 2,000 of the 4,840 non -urban acres are currently being utilized for oil production and are expected to remain so at least through the year 2000. Pending the availability of land presently in oil production, urban infill will account for much of the development in this RSA. By the year 2010, the population in RSA A-36 is projected to reach 202,300, which is an increase of 33,518 from the 1980 total. Among all RSAs, with the exception of RSA J-35, this area will experience the smallest share (3.7 percent) of the thirty-year projected County population increase. An average rate of natural increase and few opportunities for in -migration via new development accounts for this trend. The 1980 Census documents RSA A-36 as predominantly White with a minority population comparable to the County average. The largest proportion of this population, approximately 16 percent of the area's total, is Hispanic. This ethnic group is primarily concentrated in eastern La Habra, western Brea and central Fullerton. These aforementioned areas, both because of in -migration and higher than average fertility rates, have greater growth potential than the remainder of the RSA. RSA A-36 will follow the expected County pattern toward more ethnically and racially diversity in future years. Given the age of the current housing stock, approximately 40 percent of the housing will be older than 40 years by the turn of the century. While present zoning regulations do not provide for large scale residential redevelopment, it is plausible that 25 RSA A-36 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1080-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTMATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYNIO CENTER AND 11W Maus 26 sections of this RSA will undergo some redevelopment that will provide new or renovated housing stock for the area. Should future residential redevelopment take place in this RSA, a large portion of future housing will be multiple family units. In 1980, 62 percent of the area's housing was single family, 35 percent was multiple family and 3 percent was mobile homes. In 1980, RSA A-36 was the most affordable region in Orange County to live because renters, who occupied 38 percent of the housing, paid the lowest median rent ($297) in the County. The median value of owner -occupied housing at $95,230 was comparatively low as well. While residential development is limited in RSA A-36, employment will grow significantly. It is projected that employment will increase to 125,600 in 2010 from 97.775 in 1980, or by approximately 28 percent. This growth will occur in existing employment activity areas throughout the RSA. Three significant economic are nodes located within this region. The Brea Mall has and will continue to stimulate the economic activities in areas adjacent to it, particularly in the commercial and service oriented sectors. California State University at Fullerton, flanked by commercial strips and further southward industrial activities, forms a corridor highly concentrated in jobs. Lastly, the Hughes Aircraft Facility and the industrial area adjacent to the Fullerton Airport comprise another center engaging in a combination of varied economic activities. In addition, electronics manufacturers and the corporate offices of several major food -related firms here are among Orange County's largest employees. This multi -faceted economic base ranks this RSA fourth Countywide in employment with ten percent of the County's jobs contained in this region. 27 TABLE 2 RSA A-36 PROJECTIONS 2.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 39,560 41,756 41,283 41,730 42,305 42,298 42,562 2 22,074 25,024 26,157 27,534 28,846 29,974 31,693 4 44,704 49,913 53,189 54,711 56,114 57,808 60,875 5 31,976 32,712 32,502 32,894 33,554 33,754 34,565 6 30,468 31r095 30,469 30,931 31,481 31,666 32,605 RSA Total 168,782 180,500 183,600 187,800 192,300 195,500 202,300 2.2 HOUSING 1 15,123 15,660 15,910 16,271 16,836 16,899 16,918 2 8,762 9,882 10,630 11,285 12,079 12,661 13,508 4 16,047 17,624 19,271 20,056 21,015 21,738 22,830 5 11,997 12,200 12,444 12,739 13,273 13,383 13,591 6 12,649 12,734 12,845 13,149 13,697 13,819 14,053 PSA Total 64,578 68,100 71,100 73,500 76,900 78,500 80,900 2.3 EMPLOYMENT 1 15,568 18,193 18,905 19,699 19,764 20,250 20,472 2 11,070 13,108 15,171 16,051 16,104 16,625 16,705 4 21,368 25,199 25,791 26,874 26,962 27,750 27,883 5 81946 11,300 11,320 12,768 12,810 13,000 13,063 6 40,823 45,200 45,513 46,208 46,360 47,375 47,477 RSA Total 97,775 113,000 116,700 121,600 122,000 125,000 125,600 28 9 40 41 42 43 2226 29 32 1111 a b c d a b c d 61 45 L 4 a b c d I 32 3 30 30 31 33 flil 5 6 Jill a b c d a b c d Population Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 a 1980 b 1990 c 2000 d 2010 CAA'S within RSA A-36 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER 9E-V VSN ulyi[M S, ♦ V ocoz : a 0009 : o ose t % q oset : a MUM SISA-MN OW 1SV MW -33JAM 3ATIVNISINDgr AIWWO 30WVD :33WKM Moe OZ `OOOZ `066 t 1096 G 101 (spupsnogi ui) g4moiD wn Sumama m ZT #IT 19 5 II' 9 r S Q E ■ bT TZ L bT ZT ZT P a q a LT 71 A \I N 19 20 2� t6 15 16 17 a : 190 �' b : 199O c : 2000 a b c d 2 d: 2010 a b c d 26 27 28 21 46 46 47 41 4 a b c d ( lJ y 1 t3 13 5 6 Jill/ ' abcd a b c d CARS within RSA A-36 Employment Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA A-36 GROWTH ASSOMPTiONS Use of Land 1. There will be only minimal redevelopment in this RSA before the year 2000. 2. oil lands in this RSA will remain in production until at least the year 2000. 3. First generation build -out of this RSA, other than the oil lands, will occur around 1990. 4. Development will occur both as urban infill, and, to a lesser extent, within the rough terrain available for development. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of about 0.7 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will decrease from 2.61 in 1980 to 2.50 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within the RSA. Economic Base 1. This RSA's industrial commercial base will continue to increase over the period of these projections. Emplloxment 1. Total employment will increase from 97,775 in 1980 to 125,600 in 2010. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas (i.e., Brea Mall area, Highway 39, Fullerton Airport, California State University Fullerton, and Fullerton adjacent to Riverside Freeway. 32 RSA B-41 CANYON RSA B-41, referred to as the Canyon portion of. Orange County, comprises 67,126 acres and is the second largest RSA in area. This region, much of which is unincorporated land, is bound on the north by Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties, by Black Star Canyon on the east, and by Santiago Canyon Road on the south. It includes portions of the Cleveland National Forest, the Cities of Placentia and Yorba Linda, the eastern part of Brea, Anaheim, and the Anaheim industrial area. Anaheim and Orange spheres of influence also extend into this region. A very diverse topography characterizes this area. It encompasses the relatively flat areas of Anaheim, Placentia, and Yorba Linda, the Anaheim Hills and Carbon Canyon to the east, and a portion of the rugged Santa Ana Mountains to the north and northeast. Approximately two-thirds of RSA 41-B's total land area remains in non -urban uses such as agriculture, resource extraction or vacant undeveloped land. About 6 percent of RSA B-41's acreage is devoted to oil production, and approximately 3 percent is currently in agricultural usage. Much of this non -urban, primarily vacant, territory may present a hindrance to development in its present state because nearly one-third has a slope steeper than 30 percent. Of the urbanized land in this region, 14 percent is residential, 1 percent is commercial and 3 percent is industrial. Another 10 percent is committed to open space and recreational use. While this area is currently one of the least populated regions of the County, within the next twenty-five years, RSA B-41 is projected to reach 245,900 persons, an increase of 129,200 from its 1980 population of 126,686. This is an annual increase of 3.7 percent. The primary reason for this increase in population will be the further residential.development in Anaheim Hills, east Yorba Linda, east Brea, and the City of Orange's sphere of influence. This region is relatively "young" in terms of residential development. Almost two-thirds of the housing in RSA B-41 was built within the last 10 years and another 28 percent was 11 to 20 years of age. With most of the housing built within the last 20 years, only 7 percent will be older than 40 years by the year 2000. This RSA is not expected to reach first generation build -out until after the projection years. The build -out year will depend heavily on the availability'of land currently in oil production. 35 RSA B-41 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 85 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1900 CENDUB 11 In 1980, about 75 percent of the housing stock consisted of single family dwellings with an average of approximately four units per acre. Although RSA B-41 has the lowest residential density of any Orange County RSA, its 2.97 persons per dwelling unit is above the County average. Single family housing accommodating these larger households will still predominate the housing stock in the future, although more higher density development is anticipated. Similar to the Countywide proportion of housing, RSA B-41 contains about 6 percent of the County's total employment. Approximately 10 percent of the area's total acreage is committed for industrial and commercial purposes, and these areas are easily identifiable within the RSA. Primarily, the economic activity is based along various major arterials including Imperial Highway in eastern Brea, Orangethorpe Avenue, La Palma Avenue, and the Riverside Freeway in east Anaheim. Employment is projected to increase from the 1980 total of 52,974 to 94,200, an increase of 41,226 jobs in this region. While the commercial and industrial base will not keep pace with population growth in RSA B-41, intensification of said uses will be pronounced in the present activity sites. In addition, a new employment center is also being developed along the border between Anaheim and Yorba Linda near Weir Canyon Road and the Riverside Freeway. TABLE 3 RSA B-41 PROJECTIONS 3.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 3 7,801 9,535 10,499 14,992 19,237 21,954 25,089 7 31,329 32,6ll 34,861 34,675 34,206 34,394 34,485 8 12,778 13,935 13,197 12,166 11,775 11,671 11,609 9 19,839 26,366 37,277 44,137 48,973 49,489 49,058 17 19,496 21,378 22,031 22,066 22,703 23,822 24,775 18 23,605 28,828 38,661 48,646 57,751 67,168 71,618 29 1,838 2,947 7 874 13,618 19 455 25,702 29,266 RSA Total 116,686 135,600 164,400 190,300 214,100 234,200 245,900 3.2 HOUSING 3 3,199 3,643 4,088 5,738 7,396 8,437 9,482 7 10,924 11,600 12,698 12,839 12,958 13,099 13,248 8 3,986 41174 4,229 4,269 4,309 4,349 4,389 9 6,582 8,657 12,528 15,050 17,061 17,309 17,411 11 6,778 7,362 7,676 7,839 81243 8,771 9,288 18 7,235 8,679 11,869 15,177 18,417 21,507 23,108 29 572 885 2,412 4,288 6,316 8,428 9,274 RSA Total 39,276 45,000 55,500 65,200 74,700 810900 86,200 3.3 EMPLOYMENT 3 4,122 5,432 61325 71052 71930 8,316 8,572 7 5,300 6,451 7,304 7,462 7,499 7,503 7,536 8 2,782 3,598 3,840 4,018 41224 4,248 4,333 9 1,989 4,753 6,689 71312 8,820 9,776 10,657 17 34,421 40,604 42,168 43,386 43,911 44,661 45,166 18 4,098 5,636 7,715 91610 10,465 12,318 14,186 29 262 1,426 2r259 3,160 3,351 3,578 3,750 RSA Total 52,974 67,900 75,300 82,000 86,200 90,400 94,200 38 25 14 N Population Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 CAA'S within SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER Y320* SISA"MN ONV ISY33MI '30Id:10 3AXIVVISININUV AIN000 3EN SO :33WOS ull i!m S,tddD 0 L OZ `OOOZ `066 L 1096 L ao; (spupsnogj ui) gimoiD i!un guillaMQ N i N 8 9 6 3 i1�� a b c d R illl �■�� a b c d a b c d 7 17 a : 1980 b 1990 c : 2000 d 2010 tI 9 9 AI a b c d ■ 1'' 18 29 2 3 4 TMO■ a b c d Employment Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 CAA'S within RSA B-41 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA B-41 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA has a substantial amount of land available for development, including some areas with rough terrain. 2. Major redevelopment is not expected to take place until after the period of the projections. 3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation build -out after the projection years. 4. The oil lands will remain in productions until at least 2000. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of 3.7 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -until will decrease from 2.97 in 1980, to 2.85 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. This RSA will continue to have a substantial amount of land devoted to recreational facilities. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in newly developing areas. 3. The initial phases of the Eastern corridor will be operational within the projection period. Economics Base 1. The commercial and industrial base of this RSA will not keep pace with population growth. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 54,974 in 1980 to 94,200 in 2010. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas. 3. Significant intensification will occur along Imperial Highway in Brea and along the Riverside Freeway in Anaheim. 42 N RSA C-43 BOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECMT AND ANALYBIB CENTER RSA C-43 TRABUCO Located in the northwestern section of Orange County, RSA C-43 contains most of the County's remaining rural acreage. The region is adjacent to Riverside and San Diego Counties on the north and east. The southern boundary runs along the San Diego Freeway, Ortega Highway, and the San Diego Gas and Electric power lines. Black Star Canyon Road and the City of Irvine sphere of influence represent the region's western boundaries. A significant portion of this RSA is unincorporated County land; the majority is undeveloped acreage and open space, includes O'Neill Park, Caspers Park, and a large portion of the Cleveland National Forest. Developed areas range from the rural communities of Silverado Canyon, Modjeska Canyon and Trabuco Oaks, to densely populated suburban communities such as E1 Toro, Lake Forest, and Mission Viejo. Also included in this area are the large estates of Coto de Caza and the sites of future planned communities, some of which are in the first phases of development. These newly developing communities include Rancho Santa Margarita, Serrano Highlands, Rancho Trabuco, Rancho de Los Alisos, Saddleback Meadows, Glenn Ranch, Robinson Ranch, and Whiting Ranch. Small portions of the Cities of San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente are also located in this RSA. With a total of 151,000 acres within its boundaries, RSA C-43 ranks as Orange County's largest RSA. In 1980, 48 percent of the land area in the region was designated as open space, 38 percent consisted of vacant land, 5 percent was residential and 5 percent was in agricultural use. Less than 1 percent was designated commercial and industrial, while the remaining 3 percent was classified as miscellaneous other uses. In 1980, the population of RSA C-43 totaled 95,954, comprising 5 percent of the County's total population. This area is projected to experience significant growth by the year 2010. During the forecast period, the area's population is projected to increase by 153 percent, adding 146,346 residents. The region's population will reach a figure of 242,300 by 2010, representing 9 percent of the County's total population. Similarly, the housing stock in this area is projected to increase by 184 percent during the forecast period, from a figure of 32,885 in 1980 to 93,500 in 2010. While a substantial amount of land is developable, much of the terrain consists of steep hillsides and rugged canyons. Low density development therefore predominates in the area. With an average of 4.23 dwelling units per residential acre in 1980, this RSA represented one of the least densely developed areas in the County. As mentioned above, this RSA does contain several densely populated suburban 45 RSA C-43 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1960-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1080-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE, ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYBIQ CENTER AND 1"0 CENU/ EEO communities, and this type of development will become more prevalent as the newer planned communities are constructed. However, RSA C-43 will continue to contain significant open space. In 1980, this region contained slightly over 2 percent of the County's total employment base. Employment is projected to increase by 196 percent during the forecast period, from 21,204 jobs in 1980 to a figure of 62,800 in 2010. This represents the largest growth rate in employment of all the County's RSAs during this period. In the year 2010, this RSA.will contain over 8 percent of the County's total jobs. The high growth rate projected for employment in the area is primarily the result of commercial and industrial development projected in the Rancho Santa Margarita and Whiting Ranch planned communities. 47 TABLE 4 RSA C-43 PROJECTIONS 4.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 55 11254 1,350 1,913 2r522 3,090 3,680 4,679 56 1,594 5,206 13,852 20,512 29,556 31,403 32,581 57 24,139 25,136 25,092 25,123 24,973 25,000 25,537 58 65,499 79,535 .90,549 95,691 95,529 94,967 95,022 59 1,866 4,075 14,242 24,853 39r791 55,389 70,809 60 1,602 1,798 2,852 5,599 8,161 10,861 13,672 RSA Total 95,954 117,100 148,500 174,300 201,100 221,300 242,300 4.2 HOUSING 55 596 620 900 1,200 1,500 lr800 2,300 56 492 1,600 4,600 61900 10,600 11,600 12,100 57 8,013 8,271 8,460 8,560 8,660 8,760 9r020 58 22,608 27,503 32,387 34,275 34,713 35,251 35,480 59 704 1,384 51212 9,444 15,776 22r508 29rD40 60 472 622 1,041 2,121 3,251 4,381 5,560 RSA Total 32,885 40,000 52,600 62,500 74,500 84,300 93,500 4.3 EMPLOYMENT 55 169 250 450 650 850 950 1,050 56 81 194 1,322 10,000 16,000 17,000 18r000 57 4,465 4,028 4,628 4,928 5,228 5,500 5,700 58 14,558 17,078 18,200 21,000 24,000 24,500 25,000 59 1,827 1,900 2,500 4,822 7,022 8,850 10,550 60 104 350 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 RSA Total 21,204 23,800 27r600 42,400 54,600 58,800 62,800 48 A& N 24 25 25 111c SOURCE: ORANG FORER 4 N RSA C-43 Dwelling Unit Growth (in thousands) SWACE: ORANDE COUNTY ADMIN18TRATWVE OFFICE, n n ry �y FORECAST AND ANAIYWO CENTER for 1980, 19800 2000p 2010 N 4 5 5 MIN a b c RSA C-43 Employment Growth SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. (in thousands) FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 RSA C-43 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA has a significant amount of land available for development. 2. No significant redevelopment will occur in this RSA until well after the projection years. 3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation build -out by the year 2025. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of about 5.1 percent. 2. The persona -per -dwelling -unit in this RSA will decrease from 2.92 in 1980, to 2.59 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. This RSA will continue to have a significant amount of recreational facilities. 2. The circulation system in this RSA will expand in increments up to and beyond the year 2010. 3. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in newly developing areas. 4. Initial phases of the Foothill corridor will be operational within the period of these projections. Economic Base 1. This RSA will experience a strengthening of its industrial base. 2. The generally favorable commercial base of the RSA will improve over time. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 21,204 in 1980 to 62,800 in 2010. 52 2. Significant intensification of employment will occur the Foothill corridor in Whiting Ranch and adjacent employment'areas, and in Plano Trabuco. The Mission Mall area will also intensify. along Viejo CAA within RSA SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA D-40 SOUTH COAST This is the southernmost coastal RSA and it encompasses 57,754 acres. Its northern boundary extends along the northern border of Laguna Beach, following Los Trancos Canyon as far as the city limits of Irvine. The area then extends along the coast from Laguna Beach to San Clemente. RSA D-40 includes the unincorporated communities of Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, South Laguna, Capistrano Beach, Dana Point, Aliso Viejo, and the City of San Juan Capistrano. This region is dominated by the Peninsular Range and includes 8,600 acres of hilly terrain having a slope greater than 30 percent. While 70 percent of the region's land use is non -urban and a significant portion of territory is available for development, the region is characterized by rough terrain, geologic problems or environmental sensitivity. Twenty percent of the total acreage is devoted to residential use with the remainder of urbanized usage comprised of 3 percent commercial, 1 percent industrial, and 3 percent open space and recreational. Significant open space will continue to exist along the Irvine Coast and surrounding the City of Laguna Beach. RSA D-40 attracts many individuals in pursuit of recreational and leisure activities. This area offers many recreational opportunities, including Crystal Cove State Park, State Undersea Park, Aliso Beach Park, Doheny Beach State Park, and San Clemente State Park. In 1980, the population total was 134,696 and is expected to reach 279,800 by the first decade of the twenty-first century. This population increase within RSA D-40.is a gain 145,104 persons by the year 2010, which is the largest numerical increase of all the Orange County RSAs. The majority or 71 percent of this increase will occur in CAAs 63 and 64. These two CAAs contain wholly or partially the planned communities of Alicia Creek, Aliso Viejo, Beacon Hill, Bear Brand, Colinas de Capistrano, and Country Village. RSA D-40 is characterized by a high proportion of elderly residents. In 1980, 23 percent of the population was over the age of 65. The presence of a large elderly population, including those from Rossmoor Leisure World, may explain the region's death rate of 11 deaths per 1,000 persons, the highest in the County. The majority of the housing in this RSA was built in the last 20 years. In 1980, one-half .of the housing stock was 10 years old or newer, while 30 percent was between 11 and 20 years old. Only 10 percent of the housing was 21 to 30 years old and 10 percent was older than 30 years. First generation build -out is not • 57 RSA D-40 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE, ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, ItORECAET ANO ANALYOIV CENTER AND I'M CORM a anticipated until after the projection years; but some renovation or redevelopment will probably occur at the turn of century when 20 percent of the housing units will be over 40 years old. RSA D-40's persons -per -dwelling -unit ratio of 2.03 was the County's lowest. Underlying the small average household size of RSA D-40 is the considerable number of single person households in the area. Over 30 percent of the households contain one person compared to 21 percent for the County as a whole. The large elderly population in this RSA contributes to the small household size. Average household size is projected to increase slightly in RSA D-40, the only instance in which an increase is anticipated. Currently, 40 percent of the housing units are multiple family with 57 percent single family dwellings and the remaining 3 percent mobile homes. In future years, the proportion of multiple family units will increase. Four percent of the total County employment is located in this RSA. Together with the recreation -related activities along the coast, Saddleback Community Hospital, Endevco, Laguna Hills Mall, Mission Viejo Mall, and South Coast Medical Center provide the major employment centers for the area. Numerous economic activities take place along the San Diego Freeway and will develop along the future San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor, along the Moulton Corridor and in Aliso Viejo. Total employment will increase significantly in RSA D-40 from the 1980 base of 40,450 to 109,900 by the year 2010. This increase of 69,450 is impressive, but the major source employment for this region will remain the industrial and corporate complexes in adjacent RSAs. 59 TABLE 5 RSA D-40 PROJECTIONS 5.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 61 19,301 20,134 21,433 22,953 23,741 24,629 25,528 62 30,854 34,684 37,260 38,739 41,180 38,928 38,726 63 5,646 12,326 25,137 41,045 55,935 65,705 71,199 64 17,818 24,782 30,960 39,589 45,941 51,419 55,251 65 4,499 4,929 4,883 4,922 4,903 4,907 4,871 66 5,012 5,368 5,514 5,872 5,996 6,113 6,195 67 4,988 5,334 5,651 5,927 6,044 6,201 6,316 68 23,444 27,655 28,666 30,410 31,461 32,696 33,768 69 23,134 25,988 28,296 30,943 33,199 35,702 37,946 RSA Total 134,696 161,200 187,800 220,400 248,400 266,300 279#800 5.2 HOUSING 61 10,210 10,579 11,373 12,328 12,997 13,644 14,265 62 17,765 19,578 21,606 22,700 23,200 23,500 23,700 63 2,106 4,405 9,815 16,122 22,076 26,115 28,625 64 7,467 98909 12,733 16,452 19,416 21,957 23,973 65 2,647 2,753 2,797 2,847 2,885 2,918 2,942 66 2,627 2,800 2,950 3,175 3,300 3,400 3,500 67 2,310 2,356 2,556 2,706 21806 2,906 3,006 68 9,655 11,357 12,067 12,927 13,637 14,337 15,029 69 11,285 12,363 13,803 15,243 16,683 18,123 19,560 RSA Total 66,072 76,100 89,700 104,500 117,000 126,900 134,600 5.3 EMPLOYNEmT 61 8,136 7,666 8,380 8,500 81650 8,800 8,902 62 8,304 11,939 14,019 17,170 19,170 19,670 20,222 63 3,308 3,448 8,834 19,388 30,603 36,433 41,314 64 2,886 3,382 5,527 8,027 91027 9,627 10,111 65 1,746 1,840 1,865 1,890 1,925 1,965 11990 66 2,183 2,250 21300 2,350 21550 2,750 2,920 67 1,192 1,534 1,634 1,734 1,834 1,914 1,984 68 7,040 7,162 71662 8,462 91162 91662 9,957 69 5,655 5,979 7,479 8,979 10,479 11,579 12,500 rJ40 Total 40,450 45,200 $7,700 76,500 93,400 102,400 109,900 m 37 4.1 61 19 2124 26 ��d a 190 b 1990 \ c 2000 4 ■ d 2010 a CANS within RSA D-40 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER 62 11" a b c d m 25 :11 a b d 55 46 i l 1 5abcd :� 66 m AI ./ 25 111 a 1!8 d 338 6 6 6 2328 67 ' ! II a b c d Population Growth 69 (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 N O L OZ 'OOOZ 6066 L '086 L a01 (spu-esnogl ui) 41molo ilun sulipma q e L9,9 99 7 q v 5 N31N37 BIBA'7YNY OJN 19Y73tl73 '37I3j0 3AIlYMINIW0Y AMWD 30WHO :3:)WICS 017-a VSN uigl!m SIVVD � q e OIOz = DDDZ 0 9 0661 : q lb 088i t y e E E w Z9 p q s it OI fT hT L9 B B 9 9 61 1111 a b c d a 1980 b 1990 c 2000 d 2010 CAA'S within RSA D-40 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALY018 CENTER 2 a - a b c 6 19 20 14 62 a b 41 3 63 9 3 a c d 64 9 10 . a b c d 2 a d 66 6 Employment Growth (in thousands) 69 for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 N RSA D-40 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA will have a significant amount of land available for development throughout the period of these projections. 2. Major redevelopment will not occur in this RSA until after the projection years. 3. First generation build -out of this RSA will not occur until after the projection years. 4. Much of the land potentially available for development in this RSA is characterized by rough terrain, geologic constraints or environmental sensitivity. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of about 3.6 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will increase from 2.04 in 1980, to 2.08 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. This RSA will continue to have substantial recreational resources. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be generally sufficient to meet demands within the RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in newly developing areas. 3. Initial operation of the San Joaquin Hills Corridor will occur by 1995. Economic Base 1. The major source of employment for this RSA will be the industrial complexes in adjacent RSAs. 2. There will be additional industrial and commercial development in this RSA. 64 Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 40,450 in 1980 to 109,900 in 2010. 2. Employment centers will develop in Aliso Viejo and employment areas adjacent to the San Joaquin Hills Corridor and the Moulton Corridor. RSA E-44 EL TORO RSA E-44 is located in south central Orange County. It includes the portion of the City of Irvine north of the San Diego Freeway, both the E1 Toro and Tustin Marine Corps Air Stations, a small portion of east Tustin, and the unincorporated land between the Irvine city limits and Santiago Canyon Road. The land is relatively flat in the southern half of this RSA, while the terrain steepens moving north toward Santiago Canyon Road. Current urban uses of land in this RSA are minimal: they include 6 percent in residential use and another 7 percent in commercial and industrial uses. However, the long term potential for growth and development is this RSA is substantial. As of 1980, over 50 percent of the RSA consisted of vacant land or land in agricultural use. A substantial portion of these vacant and agricultural lands are in Agricultural Preserve, although the Preserve status has not been renewed on several thousand acres, assuring available land for short- and mid-term development. Land use designations for much of this RSA are contained in the general plans for the Cities of Irvine and Tustin. RSA E-44's population is projected to increase from approximately 53,000 at the time of the 1980 Census to slightly over 181,000 by the year 2010. Although RSAs B-41, C-43, and D-40 are projected to add more population during this same period, the relative magnitude of RSA E-44's growth, 245 percent, will be the largest. During the earlier part of the projection period, a majority of the growth will occur in CAA 51, and later CAA 52 will predominate as the major growth center in this RSA. This RSA has been a principal County growth center in recent years. Its growth has been stimulated almost entirely by new residential development. According to the 1980 Census, the majority of its residents had moved to the area during the preceding five years. Of those persons living in RSA E-44 in 1980, only 17 percent had lived in the same house since 1975. During the same period, the population nearly doubled as did the housing stock. It is expected that most growth in this RSA will follow a similar pattern for some time to come: in -migration associated with residential development. The last decennial Census recorded that, since 1975, 32 percent of those residing in RSA E-44 had moved there from some other residence within Orange County, and 46 percent migrated from elsewhere in the country including other California counties and other states and territories. Slightly over 4 percent of the population migrated from abroad during the same five-year period. In addition, 13 percent of the population is foreign born. These last two figures are both above the County average, indicating M RSA E-44 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITM RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND U89 SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY AONI NISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AM ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1M00 CCIMIM 70 I this RSA attracts an above average number of persons from abroad. This may account for the fact that this RSA had the highest proportion of Asians (7 percent) of all RSAs. This RSA also contains the highest proportion of Blacks (4 percent). The Blacks in this RSA are concentrated in CAAs 49 and 54, which contain the Tustin and El Toro Marine Corps Air Stations, suggesting an association with the military bases. The population under 18 is near the County average at about 30 percent, while the percent population over 65 years of age (2.6 percent) is considerably below the County average of 8 percent. This helps explain a birth rate which is slightly above the County's and a death rate considerably below the County's rate. It is expected that the rate of natural increase will remain slightly above the County rate, but due to a small population base, in -migration associated with new residential development will be the dominant growth factor for some time to come. As indicated above, residential development will be the major contributing factor to this RSA's population increase. Between 1980 and 2010, nearly 52,000 dwelling units will be added to this RSA's housing stock. This is nearly a 300 percent increase. Redevelopment should not play it major role in this increase, because most housing is relatively new. Even by the year 2000, only 10 percent of the housing will be 40 or more years old. As of the 1980 Census, this RSA had the second highest proportion of single family units at 79 percent. However, like much of the County, multiple family units account for a larger portion of the total housing stock. Between 1980 and 1984, multiple family dwelling units increased from 17 to 20 percent while single family dwelling units decreased from 79 to 77 percent of the total housing stock. It is anticipated that this trend will continue into the future. There will be considerable employment growth in this RSA. RSA E-44 contains three of the County's major employment centers, including the Irvine Industrial Complex West, the Irvine Industrial Complex East, and the Irvine Business Center. In addition, the proposed biomedical center will be located in this RSA. Over 114,000 jobs will be added between 1980 and 2010, representing a 188 percent increase. The majority o the growth, 97,000 jobs, will be in CAAs 49, 51, and 53 which contain the previously mentioned employment centers. Employment growth in CAA 52 will drop initially as agricultural employment declines, but will increase as job opportunities in schools, retail outlets, restaurants, and related activities develop to serve the growing population. 71 TABLE 6 RSA E-44 PROJECTIONS 6.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 49 1,670 5,150 5,150 51150 50150 5,150 51150 51 31,347 40,925 52,372 64,055 73,111 76,606 80,367 52 11,787 16,087 26,640 43,657 62,501 77,106 87,745 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 7,760 7,838 7,838 7,S38 7,838 7,838 7,838 RSA Total 52,564 70,000 92000 120,700 148,600 166,700 181,100 6.2 HOUSING 49 136 874 874 874 874 874 874 51 11,401 15,028 19,597 24,143 28,340 29,822 31,513 52 4,519 6,142 1Or373 17,027 25,030 31,048 35,557 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 1,257 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 RSA Total 17,313 23,300 32,100 43,300 55,500 63,000 69,200 6.3 EMPLOYMENT 49 45,897 51,859 67,000 73,946 78,546 82,546 87,000 51 4,176 9,054 17,380 18,880 20,380 22,680 24,000 52 5,391 2,000 21800 6,000 8,000 10,000 13,000 53 1,052 13,000 23,633 30,187 33,187 34,687 36,800 54 2,176 3,287 3,287 6,287 9,287 11,287 12,000 Total 58,692 79,200 114,100 135,300 149,400 161,200 172,800 72 f rt-t i fi-k U3DM BISAWW aW ISV33MOA '33Ijo 36uvvISINIMOV AIMOD 30WHO ;33WIM i7tr-3 VSN ulyi!M P o q s ■alai SIVV^ // I T T T H ocoa : a o00a : a P a g e 086E q 0 0 0 0 086t 8 LS 17S poge 6V sT P a q s » m - o q a 60 6-0 60 to of S OT BZ ZS Zf SZ OLOZ `OOOZ `O66L `O86L Jo} (spu-esnogl ui) glmolD iiun Suillam(] RSA E-44 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. Substantial portions of this RSA are available for development. 2. As development continues in this RSA, the land available for development will be characterized by rough terrain. 3. Significant redevelopment will not occur in this RSA until well after the year 2010, 4. First generation build -out of this RSA will not occur until after the period of these projections. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of slightly more than 8 percent. 2. The persona -per -dwelling -unit in this RSA will decrease from 3.04 in 1980 to 2.62 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. E1 Toro Marine Corps Air Station and the Santa Ana Helicopter Facility will remain in government ownership and use during the period of these projections. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be generally sufficient to meet demands within this RSA, but development may be temporarily impeded in newly developing areas. 3. The initial phases of the Eastern and Foothill corridors will be operational within the projection years. Economic Base 1. This RSA will continue to have a strong industrial base. 2. The generally weak commercial base will improve. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 58,692 in 1980 to 172,800 in 2010. 76 wanin RSA F-39 SOIRCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA F-39 CENTRAL COAST This RSA includes the Cities of Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, and Irvine's southern portion. It extends from the Santa Ana River to Crystal Cove along the coastline, and north to the Costa Mesa city limits and San Diego Freeway. RSA F-39's topography is diverse; it includes an extensive marine plateau in the west, both upper and lower Newport Bay, and a section of the gently rolling San Joaquin Hills to the east. This area, comprising 39,802 acres, is characterized by several distinct geographical areas, each with its own character. The City of Costa Mesa and the older areas of Newport Beach have developed over the last forty to fifty years and have the greatest potential for intensification of activity. These areas have a variety of mixed uses and densities of development. The western and northern portions of the RSA are heavily developed, while the southeastern section, the Irvine Coast, contains most of the RSA's non -urbanized acres. Two open space areas of regional importance are'Newport Bay and the Irvine Coast. In 1980, 25 percent of the urbanized area was residential, 7 percent commercial, 4 percent industrial, and 7 percent open space, with 42 percent of the acreage remaining undeveloped. The population in 1980 was 170,644, and it is projected to grow at an average annual rate of. 1.7 percent to reach 257,400 by the year 2010. The majority of this population growth will occur in the southern portions of this RSA where further residential development is expected. In 1980, this RSA had the highest ratio of dwelling units to residential acres at 7.2, indicating an intensive use of residential space. This is likely due to the fact that this RSA had the highest share of multiple family dwelling units in the County at 43 percent. In addition, along the coastal fringes, housing densities increase dramatically as compared to the inland areas such as Costa Mesa. The remainder of the housing stock was 55 percent single family dwellings and 2 percent mobile homes. An average of 2;27 persons lived in each dwelling unit in 1980. The region had the largest proportion of renter -occupied dwelling., — units at 48 percent in 1980, and the median rent paid was $371, the third highest in -the County. The median housing cost, $148,040., was the highest of all the RSAs. It is projected that at the turn of the century, almost one-third of the housing will be older than 40 years, but no major residential redevelopment is expected to take place in this RSA until after the year 2010. As of 1980, more than two-thirds of the housing stock had been built in.the preceeding 20 years. No RSA F-39 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND U8E SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1900 COWS 92 About 20 percent was between 21 and 30 years old, and 11 percent was older than 30 years. While the area contains 9 percent of. the County's population, it offers 16 percent of the total County employment, ranking second in employment among all the RSAs. There are several regionally significant activity centers within this RSA, namely: Newport Center and adjacent areas; South Coast Plaza and surrounding employment areas; John Wayne Airport and the surrounding commerical and industrial areas; the University of California, Irvine and the nearby town center; and Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation. The future opening of the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor should both enhance accessibility to these activity centers as well as intensify the commercial -industrial base of the surrounding environs. In addition to the present activity sites, future employment areas along the coast and lands adjacent to the San Diego Freeway in east Irvine offer further potential for development. Intensification of commercial -industrial uses near South Coast Plaza, the Harbor Boulevard and Newport Boulevard strips, John Wayne Airport, and Newport Center will add to the employment base in the region. As a result, the economic base of RSA F-39 should flourish. In 1980, employment in the RSA was 146,415; it is projected to gain 90,785 jobs by the year 2010. These 237,200 jobs, a 62 percent increase, will constitute 15 percent of the County's total. M. TABLE 7 RSA P-39 PAWECTTONS 7.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 44 47,679 50,558 56033 56,767 56,064 56,126 56,012 45 40,342 43,050 44,434 46,320 47,200 48,289 48,603 46 35,824 37,238 37,295 38,600 39,630 40,566 40,793 47 26,721 29,136 32,318 35,794 37,945 38,732 39,169 48 0 0 510 507 505 507 507 50 20,078 28,118 39,410 48,912 57,956_ 65,880 72,316 RSA Total 170,644 188,100 210,000 226,900 2390300 250,100 257,400 7.2 HOUSING 44 17,906 18,624 21,121 21,621 21,721 21,971 22,071 45 18,479 19,264 20,319 21,374 22,129 23,089 23,844 46 19,536 19,832 20,032 20,772 21,412 21,912 22,162 47 12,171 12,814 14,460 16,339 17,408 17,769 18,069 48 0 0 260 260 260 260 260 50 6,828 9,466 13,408 17,134 20,670 23,699 26,094 RSA Total 74,920 800000 89,600 971500 103,600 108t700 112,500 7.3 EMPLOYMENT 44 27,965 43,150 56,284 56,655 57,585 62,835 67,312 45 17,902 19,573 20,573 21,573 22,273 22,873 23,473 46 19,195 19,958 20,458 20,958 21,456 21,958 22,548 47 25,966 27,500 28,500 29,000 29,200 29,350 29,500 48 46,364 60,868 63,942 71,863 72,535 73,733 74,800 50 9,023 9,851 10,943 14,551 16,751 18,251 19,657 RSA Total 146,415 1800900 200,700 214,600 219,800 229,000 237,200 84 V31N" SIBA'YfW ONV 1SVOMMU •33I.4.033AIIIIVV1SINIWtVV ALWOO 30MVVO -XIM 6 O L Oa `OOOZ `0661 `0$6 G J01 (spuesno4j ut) gimojD i!u fl 2uillam(] IN 4z TZ ET OLOZ:p OOOZ : O UI411M Oast : q O88t : E SI `VD p o g E IV H I Z17 zT 8T L[ Zz,� G, S� p O q E p q E fCP EO FQ Q 8 �7 (/ (/ hz 139 ZZ OZ Jill N ZZ ZZ TZ i a : 1980 b : 1990 c : 2000 d : 2010 wimin RSA F-39 (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA F-39 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA has land available for both residential and employment development in the south portion. 2. No major redevelopment is expected to take place in this RSA until after the year 2010. 3. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually occur in the northern portion of this RSA through private sector recycling. 4. First generation build -out of this RSA will occur around the year 2010. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of about 1.7 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will increase slightly from 2.28 in 1980, to 2.29 in 2010, Public Services and Facilities 1. John Wayne Airport will remain as the principal civilian airport in the county. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA. 3. This RSA will maintain a substantial number of recreational facilities. 4. initial operation of. the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor will occur prior to 1995. Economic Base 1. This RSA will continue to have a strong commercial and industrial base. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 146,415 in 1980 to 237,200 in 2010. LE. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing activity areas as well as future employment areas along the coast and lands adjacent to the San Diego Freeway in east Irvine. 3. Significant intensification will occur by South Coast Plaza, Harbor Boulevard area, Newport Boulevard area, John Wayne Airport and Newport Center. HW CAA'S within N RSA G-42 B"M ORANDE C"TV ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYBIB CENTER RSA G-42 SANTA ANA RSA G-42 is located in central Orange County and includes the Cities of Santa Ana, Tustin, Orange and Villa Park. The western portion of the region is predominantly flat, while the eastern area consists of rolling hills: The land area of this RSA covers 42,038 acres. In 1980, the largest share of this acreage, 55 percent, was devoted to residential development, with 10 percent to commercial use, 10 percent to industrial use, and 4 percent to agricultural use. An additional 3 percent of the land in this region was reserved open space, with 8 percent vacant, and 10 percent designated for various other land uses'. Population in the region is projected to increase from a figure of 377,316, recorded in the 1980 Census, to 488,800 in the year 2010, or a 30 percent increase'. Containing one -fifth of the County's total population in 1980, this is the most populous RSA. While its share of the County's total population will decrease to 17 percent in 2010, it will remain the largest RSA in population throughout the projection period. Several characteristics of this area's population, as recorded in 1980, distinguished it from the other County RSAs. RSA G-42 had the highest fertility rate at 88 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 44. This region contained the highest concentration of residents of Spanish origin at 29 percent and foreign born residents at 22 percent. Thus, the high fertility rates within RSA G,-42 may be explained by the sizeable ethnic minority populations within the area. Essentially, the Hispanic population is clustered in north and central Santa Ana throughout four. CAAs: 38, 39, 40, and 41. In 1985, these four subregions are projected to contain 56 percent of the RSA's total populace, increasing to 57 percent by the year 2010. This represents a 20 percent increase in population in these CAAs from 1985 to 2010 compared to the 16 percent increase overall for an RSA already extensively developed. With a total increase of 47,528 persons by the end of the projection years, this area will contain the greatest concentration of population within RSA G-42. The housing stock in the region is projected to increase by 37,297 dwelling units between 1980 and 2010. The area contained the most dwelling units of all RSAs in 1980, at 130,103, and this distinction will remain throughout the forecast period. Total housing units will reach 167,400 by 2010 or 15 percent of all the County's housing. RSA G-42 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1964 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 86 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1960-1884 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER AND 1960 CENSUS 94 This RSA contains some of Orange County's oldest housing stock, as well as a wide diversity, ranging from the high density developments in Orange and downtown Santa Ana to the hilltop estates of Lemon Heights and Cowan Heights. In 1980, about one-third of the housing in this RSA was less than 10 years old, approximately one-third was 11 to 20 years old, one -fifth was 21 to 30 years old and 13 percent was older than 30 years. Currently, the CAA 40 and 41 sections of Santa Ana are undergoing redevelopment. Typical of current construction trends elsewhere, a large portion of the emerging housing stock is multiple family units. By the year 2000, one-third of the housing stock in this RSA will be older than 40 years and therefore further redevelopment should be expected in this area. Consequently, housing density should increase particularly in the City of Santa Ana. As is the case with population and housing, RSA G-42 contains the most employment of all the RSAs, with nearly one -quarter of all Orange County jobs located in this region. In 1980, there were 207,023 workers employed in the area. By the year 2010, employment in the RSA is projected to grow by 129,077, or 62 percent, to reach a figure of 336,100. Several factors explain the area's prominence as an employment center, such as its large population base and its central location. Also, this RSA lies at the center of the County's transportation network, with the Santa Ana, Newport -Costa Mesa, Orange, and Garden Grove Freeways all passing through the region. Major employment and retail centers include ITT Cannon Electric, UCI Medical Center, the Santa Ana Civic Center, The City retail/commercial center, Saint Joseph's Hospital, the Orange Mall, and Anaheim Stadium and its adjacent areas. 95 TABLE 8 RSA G-42 PROJECTIONS 8.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 26 17,153 19,018 20,111 20,176 20,117 20,016 22,133 27 26,283 27,279 26,841 26,941 26,754 26,599 27,349 28 56,277 59,787 62,811 63,889 65,748 67,029 68,125 30 7,590 7,764 7,901 7,873 71753 7,691 7,601 38 33,942 38,270 39,778 41,965 43,649 45,762 46,531 39 24,516 26,935 28,029 28,422 28,571 30,548 32,357 40 96,530 108,196 119,141 121,410 122,397 125,670 128,786 41 53,421 591182 64,137 68,914 70,451 71,005 72,437 42 49,695 51,077 50,057 50,231 49,922 49,975 50,876 43 11,909 14,992 18,394 23,279 27,038 30,005 32,605 RSA Total 377,316 412,500 437,200 453,100 462,400 474,300 488,800 8.2 HOUSING 26 7,048 7,595 8414 8,340 8,471 8,530 9,129 27 10,512 10,851 10,925 11,262 111195 11,248 11,375 28 18,164 19,245 20,712 21,421 22,282 22,946 23,358 30 1,989 2,041 21124 20136 2,138 2,143 2,147 38 10,234 10,975 11,227 11,986 12,759 13,265 13,684 39 10,562 10,953 11,098 11,108 11,843 12,569 13,285 40 28,192 29,807 32,251 33,376 34,343 35,278 36,078 41 20,285 21,376 23,706 24,898 25,898 26,458 27,228 42 19,576 19,916 19,999 20,319 20,470 20,673 20,904 43 3,541 4,441 5,_544 7,_054_ 8.,301 9,290 10,212 BSA Total 130,103 137,200 145,800 151,800 157,700 162,400 167,400 8.3 EMPLOYMENT 26 37,194 53,854 66,988 74,455 78,501 81,166 84,425 27 16,623 18,978 19,220 19,818 20,084 20,462 20,822 28 13,524 141888 15,244 16,006 16,214 16,843 17,813 30 1,417 1,589 1,759 1,916 1,994 2,091 2,525 38 51055 6,269 6,493 6,644 6,860 7,125 7,730 39 17,517 24,291 24,842 25,972 26,503 27,208 28,232 40 35,524 45,667 47,815 51,087 52,438 56,6Q6 60,545 41 55,452 68,915 71,528 76,153 77,694 79,603 80,374 42 23,441 26,098 27,601 28,888 29,497 30,300 30,750 43 1,276 651 810 1,061 2,015 2,496 2,884 RSA Total 207,023 261,200 282,300 302,000 311,800 323,900 336,100 m Populati( (in th( for 1980, 19 70 72 ' 64 53 a b c d N CAA'S within RSA G-42 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER Dwelling l 1-:� (in the for 199o, 19: 4 N CAA'S within RSA G-42 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER Employr (in t for 1980, a : 1980 b 1990 c 2000 d 2010 N a b c d KM U-4L SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA G-42 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA has relatively few large parcels of land remaining for development. 2. Significant redevelopment of this RSA will occur throughout the projections years. 3. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation residential build -out by the year 2000. 4. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually occur through recycling. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of about 1 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will increase slightly from 2.90 in 1980, to 2.92 in 2010. Public. Services and Facilities 1. This RSA will continue to have relatively few recreational facilities. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within the RSA. Economic Base 1. This RSA will continue to have an employment base noted for its diversity and abundance of firms. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 211,600 in 1980.to 336,100 in 2010. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas. 3. Significant intensification will occur in the Fashion Square area, The City Shopping Center area, the industrial areas adjacent to the Santa Ana River and Main Street corridor, the Main Street corridor, and the Santa Ana Central Business District, 100 22 23 14 k 16 15 CANS 24 within RSA H-37 25 WACE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA H-37 ANAHEIM RSA H-37 is located in the central portion of north Orange County, and includes the Cities of Stanton, Garden Grove, and most of Anaheim except the Anaheim Hills area. The region is bound by the Riverside Freeway on the north and generally follows the Orange Freeway on the east and the Garden Grove Freeway on the south. The land area of RSA H-37 totals 30,892 acres. In 1980, this region recorded the highest proportion of residential acreage (62 percent), the highest proportion of commercial acreage (11 percent), and the lowest proportion of open space (2 percent) of all the County's RSAs. Eight percent of the region's acreage is used for industrial purposes, with 3 percent remaining vacant, 2 percent agricultural, and 12 percent devoted to various other uses. In 1980, RSA H-37 was the second largest RSA in population, with 338,682 residents, or 18 percent of the total County population. Population in the region is projected to increase 15 percent between 1980 and 2010, to a total of 389,200. Twenty-seven percent of this RSA's population in 1980 was under 18 years old and 8 percent was over 65 years, both of which are close to the County average. While the percentage of elderly in RSA H-37 was close to the County average, in total numbers this RSA ranked second in the County to RSA D-40. It is -significant to note that in 1980, there were 19,532 persons over age 65 located in RSA H-37 even though there is no sizeable planned senior community. Large numbers of seniors are in all of.the CAAs within this RSA with the exception of CAA 23. In spite of the large number of elderly in this area in 1980, RSA H-37 had the third highest fertility rate amoung RSAs with 77 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. This to some degree can be attributed to the concentration of Hispanics in central Anaheim (CAAs 14 and 15) and the higher than average fertility rates that accompany this ethnic group. Sixteen percent of this RSA's population was of.Spanish origin in 1980, which was the second highest percent of the RSAs. This RSA also had the second lowest percentage of Whites in the County. The housing stock in RSA H-37 is projected to increase 17 percent during the forecast period, from a figure of 124,875 in 1980 to 145,700 in 2010. Distinguishing features of the area's housing stock recorded in the 1980 Census include the highest proportion of mobile homes (5 percent), the second highest proportion of multiple, family housing units (55 percent), the lowest median housing value ($.87,300) of all County RSAs and the second lowest median rent at $308. In addition, when compared to other RSAs this region had the second highest percent of renter -occupied 103 RSA H-37 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1Y84 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1080-1884 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE DRANCE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER ANO 1900 CENSUS 104 units at 45 percent and the second lowest percent of owner - occupied units at 55 percent. This is one of the most affordable regions in the County which is understandable considering the relatively large proportion of multiple family dwellings and mobile homes. Also, because of this residential land usage, densities in this RSA are higher than average. It ranks third among all the RSAs in the number of dwelling units per residential acre at 6.56 units per acre and has an average of 2.71 people living in each dwelling unit. This RSA in 1980 had the largest proportion of older housing in the County, with 35 percent of the units between 21 to 30 years old and 6 percent more than 30 years old. This will result in a 42 percent share of housing older than 40 years by the year 2000. By 1985, first generation residential build -out is anticipated, as there is very little land remaining for first generation development. Some residential redevelopment has taken place since the late seventies and early eighties. This trend toward redevelopment should continue through the projection years considering the lack of vacant developable land and the age of the housing stock. With 143,321 jobs or 16 percent of the County's total employment located within its boundaries in 1980, RSA H-37 ranks third in employment among the RSAs. Disneyland and the Anaheim Convention Center are located within the region and have attracted many major hotel and restaurant chains and various other businesses into the area. The numerous jobs serving the tourist and convention industries, along with employment concentrated around Anaheim Stadium and the Garden Grove Industrial Complex, are responsible for the region's current and continuing importance as a major employment center in Orange County. In the year 2010, it is projected that RSA H-37 will still be ranked third in the County in total employment with the addition of 68,679 jobs. However, with a total employment of 212,000 by the first decade of the twenty-first century, this RSA will decrease its proportion of the County's total employment to 13 percent. 105 TABLE 9 RSA H-37 PROJECTIONS 9.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 13 50,053 53,668 53,461 54,237 54,500 57,025 57,410 14 49,337 53,690 54,367 54,607 65,029 57,053 58,938 15 39,853 42,733 43,720 43,998 44,588 48,173 50,951 16 39,035 41,860 41,688 41,748 42,297 42,075 43,366 22 26,522 27,552 28,868 28,912 28,753 26,726 29,573 23 17,547 18,274 18,210 18,375 18,587 18,531 18,517 24 66,734 71,574 71,668 71,583 72,278 75,021 75,913 25 49,601 53,049 52,818 52,940 53,168 54,596 54,532 RSA Total 338,682 362,400 364,800 366,400 369,200 379,200 389,200 9.2 HOUSING 13 19,216 20,015 20,224 20,819 21,236 21,692 22,051 14 18,333 19,465 19,986 20,342 20,762 21,388 22,329 15 15,300 15,700 16,252 16,594 17,057 18,249 19,483 16 14,665 15,306 150618 15,806 16,017 16,383 16,758 22 9,722 10,038 10,573 10,784 10,932 11,030 11,117 23 5,224 5,344 5,451 5,548 5,655 5,708 5,763 24 24,315 25,397 25,832 26,127 26,690 27,314 27,868 25 18,100 18,935 19,064 19,380 19,751 20,136 20,331 RSA Total 124,875 130,200 133,000 135,400 138,100 141,900 145,700 9.3 EMPLOYMENT 13 14,039 17,980 181307 18,893 19,171 19,608 20,140 14 25,692 33,982 37,187 39,360 39,940 41,486 42,612 15 24,754 35,421 36,996 37,982 38,342 39,423 40,280 16 31,465 32,544 34,326 35,030 35,347 36,326 37,100 22 6,228 8,271 8,391 8,462 8,587 S,875 9,116 23 2,562 3057 3,242 3,346 31394 3,509 3,604 24 22,236 26,970 28,986 29,717 30,156 31,166 31,800 25 16,345 21,575 23,265 24,_010 24,763 26,007 27,348 RSA - - - Total 143,321 179,800 190,700 196,800 199,700 206,400 212,000 ,� Population Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 Isla 19 19 b c 23 I-- 53 55 27 29 29 a b c d a 1cd i 22 CAA'S within RSA H-37 59 54 55 4s 14 H1 1 16 a b c d 15 13 24 —I 50 gg 53 55 25 a b c d a : 1980 b : 1990 c : 2000 d : 2010 ae 42 4243 1111 a b c d N SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER W"M SISA W v OW IW03 A '331JAO 3AILYNISINSNCV AIWO" 30WHO :33WMS `©86 L Jol Utl) Ut %I-}ir%v.aJ 4!"1 1 �11 u Employment Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 a : 1980 b : 1990 c 2000 d201.0 3 3 4 ■■E23 b c d CAA'S within RSA H-37 40 43 37 26 14 16 a b c d 40 37 38 15 25 13 29 30 32 a b c d 22 23 16 25 a b c d a b c d -i 24 34 35 37 31=a■ a b c d N SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY A➢MINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA H-37 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. This RSA has very little land remaining for first generation development. 2. Significant redevelopment will begin to occur in this RSA after 1985. 3. There will be steady private sector recycling of land from single family to multi -family use in the older sectors of this RSA. 4. First generation residential build -out of this RSA will occur by 1985. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of slightly less than 0.5 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will decrease from 2.71 in 1980, to 2.67 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. Major recreation facilities in this RSA will continue to be provided by the private sector. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA. Economic Base 1. The favorable tourist -commercial base of this RSA will continue. 2. Significant industrial development in the Garden Grove area will be completed by 1985. 3. There will be continued industrial and commercial growth in the Anaheim area. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 143,321 in 1980 to 212,000 in 2010. 110 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas. 3. Significant intensification will occur in the Anaheim Stadium area, and along State College Blvd., the Disneyland area, and the Central Business Districts of Anaheim and Garden Grove. ill N SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AM ANALYSIS CENTER RSA I-38 WEST COAST Situated in the northern coastal section of Orange County, RSA I-38 is bordered by Los Angeles County on the west, the San Diego Freeway the City of Westminster on the north, the Santa Ana River on the east and the Pacific Ocean on the south. Located within the region's boundaries are the United States Naval Weapons Station and the Cities of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Seal Beach, and Huntington Beach. Most of the development in this RSA can be characterized as suburban residential. The area includes miles of preserved, state-owned coastline, including Bolsa Chica Beach State Park and Huntington Beach State Park. Other points of interest include Bolsa Chica Ecological Reserve and the natural waterways of Anaheim Bay Landing. RSA I-38 contains 38,421 acres. In 1980, 47 percent of the region was zoned residential, 6 percent was devoted to commercial use, and 5 percent was designated as industrial. An additional 7 percent was reserved open space, while 2 percent was agricultural and 6 percent remained vacant. Twenty-seven percent of the region's land area was classified in various other land uses, including military. In 1980, the area's population numbered 321,137, or 17 percent of the total County population. By 2010, an additional 57,763 individuals are projected to reside in this RSA, bringing its total population to 378,900. This RSA will rank third in population among the County RSAs throughout the forecast period. The proportion of people of Spanish origin (approximately 9 percent) was below the County average in 1980 while the percentage of Asian and Pacific Islanders (6 percent) was the second highest in the County'. An identifiable concentration of the Asian population is located in CAA 32; many of these individuals relocated to this area from Southeast Asia and have established both a residential and business community since the mid -seventies. In 1980, RSA I-38 had the second lowest fertility rate of all the RSAs at 52 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. In addition, 41 percent of the population had resided in the same house at least five years prior to the 1980 Census. RSA I-38 did experience some residential growth in the early eighties but in the long run, population growth is projected to be a slow average annual rate of 0.6 percent due to the relative lack of developable space. 115 RSA 1-38 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1980-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 66 PROPORTION SLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1944 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE ORANCE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIR CENTER AND 1"o el"m 116 The housing stock in RSA I-38 is projected to increase from a figure of 119,038 in 1980 to 150,900 in 2010. In 1980, this RSA ranked third among the County RSAs in terms of total dwelling units. In the year 2010, it is projected to increase its rank to second. First generation residential build -out is not anticipated until after the year 2000 and so substantial residential redevelopment should not be expected until then. Conversion to more intense uses of residential space should provide some housing for individuals migrating into the area and should also increase population densities overall. This RSA presently is densely populated and, in 1980, ranked second highest of all the RSAs in number of units per residential acre at 6.57. The population per dwelling unit was 2.69. In 1980, total jobs in this region totaled 92,891, representing 10 percent of Countywide employment. Employment in the area is projected to increase by 44 percent between 1980 and 2010, to a figure of 133,500. Even with this significant growth, the region's percentage of the total County employment will drop to 8.5 percent in the year 2010. Major employers in this RSA include Rockwell International in Seal Beach, McDonnell Douglas in Huntington Beach, Huntington Center, and the Westminster Mall. 117 TABLE 10 RSA I-38 PROJECTIONS 10.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 31 18,160 19,450 20,141 19,860 19,988 20,012 20,362 32 72,065 74,634 74,735 75,382 76,011 76,091 76,987 33 65,404 67,837 66,887 67,523 66,742 67,928 68,500 34 24,768 28,457 30,027 32,265 33,229 34,694 37,392 35 29,342 33,502 44,331 52,568 53,658 54,438 56,104 36 58,628 63,030 63,068 63,844 63,063 63,986 65,763 37 52,770 53,390 53,511 52,758 53,009 53,051 53,792 RSA Total. 321,137 340,300 352,700 364,200 365,700 370,200 378,900 10.2 HOUSING 31 11,206 12,068 12,708 12,752 12,985 13,114 13,249 32 25,061 25,791 26,438 27,055 27,670 27,939 28,223 33 22,682 22,954 23,083 23,734 23,798 24,350 24,911 34 10,757 11,960 13,049 14,529 15,348 16,457 17,472 35 13,165 14,826 19,997 24,153 24,954 25,577 26,280 36 20,009 21,043 21,532 22,128 22,129 22,681 23,241 37 16,158 16,458 16,693 16,849 17,016 17,182 17,524 RSA Total 119,038 125,100 133,500 141,200 143,900 147,300 150,900 10.3 EMPLOYMENT 31 5,819 71721 8,269 8,225 8,344 8,735 9,078 32 19,436 26,856 27,775 27,965 28,131 29,371 30,972 33 29,571 34,465 35,010 35,133 35,641 36,587 38,181 34 31385 3,469 3,501 31525 3,695 4,178 4,272 35 7,960 10,854 12,720 12,925 13,350 16,078 17,622 36 91182 10,518 10,853 10,926 10,966 11,394 12,015 37 17,538 18,017 18,672 18,801 19,073 20,257 21,360 RSA Total 92,891 111,900 116,700 117,500 119,200 126,600 133,500 118 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER U31MO 8ISA'r~ QNV t8V73W3-33Iii0 WIVtl18ININCV A1NW:3 3"M :3JNfl08 9H Y SN ury1!nn S,VVD N i a vz Z£ a •Z OtDZ : P OOOZ = D Osst q aset : a O L OZ `0003 4066 L `086 L aot (spupsnogi ui) glmojo i.,un suillam(I 4& N Emr for SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA I-38 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. The final portions of this RSA will achieve first generation residential build -out after the year 2000. 2. There will be limited available land for development during the lifetime of the oil fields. 3. Major redevelopment will begin in this RSA before the year 2010. 4. Conversion to more intensive land uses will continually occur. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of approximately 0.6 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit in this RSA will decrease from 2.70 in 1980, to 2.51 in 2010. Public Services and Facilities 1. The essential physical public serices and facilities and infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA. 2, The Seal Beach Naval Weapons Sation will remain in government ownership and use beyond 2010. Economic Base 1. This RSA will continue to have a strong commercial and a moderate industrial base. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 92,891 in 1980 to 133,500 in 2010. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas. 3. Significant intensification will occur in the Beach Blvd. corridor area, Westminster Mall, Rockwell Internation area in Seal Beach, McDonnel Douglas area in Huntington Beach, and employment areas adjacent to the San Diego Freeway. 122 CAA'S within RSA )-35 SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FCRECAET AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA J-35 BUENA PARK Located in the northwest section of Orange County, RSA J-35 includes the Cities of Buena Park, Cypress, La Palma, Los Alamitos and the unincorporated community of Rossmoor. The RSA borders Los Angeles County on the northwest and is surrounded by the Orange County Cities of Seal Beach and Garden Grove on the south and southeast and Fullerton, Anaheim, and Stanton on the east. RSA J-35 represents Orange County's smallest RSA, with•16,732 acres. The area was once dominated by large agricultural holdings, primarily devoted to dairy farming. Most of these farmlands, formerly located in the Cypress and La Palma areas, have been converted into residential development. As reflected in a 1980 County land use survey, 52 percent of the acreage in RSA J-35 was devoted to residential land uses. Eight percent of the region's acreage was zoned commercial, 6 percent was recorded as industrial, 7 percent was reserved as open space, and 4 percent was vacant. Only 4 percent of the land area remained in agricultural use at this time, while an additional 19 percent was devoted to miscellaneous other uses. The 1980 population for the area was 156,248, which represented 8 percent of the total County population. By 2010, the number of residents living in this region are projected to increase by 6 percent, to a figure of 165,400. RSA J-35 will experience the lowest growth rate of all RSAs during the forecast period. This low growth rate can be ascribed to a number of different factors, including a relatively low fertility rate in 1980 of 56 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. In addition, as of the Decennial Census RSA J-35 had the lowest rate of migration in the County as well as the highest percent of individuals residing in the same home betweem 1975 and 1980. Only 3 percent of the residents in 1980 were foreign born, the lowest percentage for the entire County. Lastly, RSA J-35 is virtually built out•and as a result would not be expected to generate a great deal of population growth when compared with other regions in the County. Private sector recycling of land from single family to multi -family use in the older section of this RSA has stimulated minor population growth and will continue to do so through the projection years. However, with a housing growth rate of less than 2 percent, the lowest in the County, population density is expected to increase while overall population growth will be low in the future. WAR RSA J- 35 PROFILE COUNTY AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE 1880-1984 FERTILITY RATE PROPORTION UNDER 18 PROPORTION OVER 88 PROPORTION BLACK PROPORTION SPANISH ORIGIN PROPORTION ASIAN DWELLING UNIT GROWTH RATE 1980-1084 PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT PROPORTION SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING PROPORTION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE PROPORTION COMMERCIAL LAND USE PROPORTION INDUSTRIAL LAND USE SOURCE. ORANGE COUNTY AbMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST ANO ANALYSIt CENTER AND 11D0 CONIUB 126 Dwelling units in the region are projected to increase from 52,454 in 1980 to 59,800 in the year 2010. As is the case with population, the housing stock in RSA J-35 will experience the smallest numerical and percentage growth among the RSAs during the projection period. Experiencing most of its growth in earlier years, development in this RSA through the year 2010 will primarily consist of various infill and redevelopment activity. While this RSA does not represent a major employment center, with only 6 percent of the County's total jobs in 1980, the region has attracted the corporate offices of several large retail establishments such as J.C. Penney, Gemco, and Lucky's stores. The Buena Park Mall and various neighborhood shopping centers provide the surrounding area with retail and commercial services. Also located in this area is the Los Alamitos Race Track, the Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station and Knott's Berry Farm, one of the County's major tourist attractions. Total employment is projected to increase from 55,067 in 1980 to 86,400 in 2010 and growth can be expected around present sites. This addition of 31,333 jobs during the projection period represents a 57 percent increase. 127 TABLE 11 RSA J-35 PROJECTIONS 11.1 POPULATION CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 10 13,967 14,589 14,670 14,654 14r432 14,411 14,375 11 22,560 23r283 23,661 23,524 23,501 23,718 25,559 12 44,801 46,691 47,898 48,107 47,917 48,447 48,052 19 45,685 47,273 48,514 48,185 47,473 47,334 46,843 20 12,481 12,720 12,438 12,321 12,098 12,014 11,837 21 16,754 17,944 18,519 18,509 18,879 18,876 18,734 RSA Total 156#248 162,500 165,700 165t300 164,300 164,800 165,400 11.2 HOUSING 10 4,094 4,295 4,435 4,476 41494 4,524 4,585 11 8,820 9,093 9,469 9,514 9,674 9,867 10,806 12 14,821 15,317 16,117 16,381 16,601 17027 17,160 19 14,535 14,886 15,587 15r739 15,810 l5,906 16,000 20 4,543 4,564 4,573 4,578 41584 4,587 4,594 21 5r641 5,845 6,219 6,312 6 537 6,589 6,655 RSA Total 52,454 54,000 56,400 57,000 57,700 58,500 59,800 11.3 EMPLOYMENT 10 3,802 4,376 4,592 4,944 4,988 5,161 5,402 11 16,990 20,323 21,296 22,817 23,626 24,660 25,909 12 14,264 14,790 15,960 16,708 17,237 18,214 19,321 19 9,077 17,264 18,899 20,805 21,819 21,899 22,153 20 1,554 1,577 1r697 lr820 1,882 11940 2,023 21 9,380 9,470 10,356 10,806 10,948 11,026 11,592 RSA Total 55,067 67,800 72,800 77,900 801500 82,900 86,400 128 6 49 4747 11 a b c d. i1 �� 21 a b c d 17 19 19 19 20 Jill a b c d 19 Population Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 13 24 24 2E a b c d 11 12 4 N a : 1980 b : 1880 c : 2000 d : 2010 CAA'S within RSA J-35 SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER Dwelling Unit Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 a : 19ao b 1000 o 2000 d 2010 CAA'S within RSA J-35 SOURCE ORANGE MPNTY A0MINISTRATIVE OFFICE, FORECAST ANO ANALWIN CF,NUR a : 1990 b 1990 c 2000 d 2010 4 5 5 5 moll a b c d 10 22 2 19 9 a b c d 2 2 2 2 .n a c d 20 Employment Growth (in thousands) for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 1617 20 14 1111 a b c d 19 12' 4 N CAA'S within RSA J-35 SOURCE; ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE. FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER RSA J-35 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS Use of Land 1. By 1985 this RSA will have very little land left for first generation development. 2. Significant public sector redevelopment will not occur in the RSA until after the year 2000. 3. There will be steady private sector recycling of land from single family to multi -family use in the older sectors of this RSA. 4. First generation build -out of this RSA will occur before 1990. Demographics 1. Between 1980 and 2010 this RSA will grow at a simple average annual rate of slightly less than 0.2 percent. 2. The persons -per -dwelling -unit will decrease from 2.98 in 1980 to 2.77 in 2010 in this RSA. Public Services and Facilities 1. Major recreation facilities in this RSA will continue to be provided by the private sector. 2. The essential physical public services and facilities infrastructure will be sufficient to meet demands within this RSA. 3. Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station will remain in government ownership and use. Economic Base 1. The industrial and commercial base in this RSA will increase. Employment 1. Total employment will increase from 55,067 in 1980 to 86,500 in 2010. 2. Employment will be concentrated in existing employment activity areas. (Buena Park industrial areas, along Highway 39, Knott's Berry Farm area, the Katella corridor, and Cypress adjacent to Los Alamitos Reserve Air Station.) 132 APPENDIX A POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction This appendix describes the methods used by the County of Orange Forecast and Analysis Center (FAC) to produce the Countywide, Regional Statistical Areas (RSA) and Community Analysis Area (CAA) population and dwelling unit projections. The preparation of these projections is a process that consists of several procedures and methodologies. In very broad terms, the projections are produced by first projecting total County population and housing, then disaggregating the Countywide projected population and dwelling units to smaller geographic areas based on land use capacity and assumed market forces within the County. The description that follows discusses each step of this process as implemented for the development of Orange County Preferred Projections-1985 and the corresponding CAA -level projections. This process is also depicted in Figure A-1. Projection Process/Methodology A. Project Total County Population In developing the population projections, it was most efficient to work closely with the State Department of Finance (DOF) Population Research Unit in their effort to produce baseline population projections for California counties. Working with DOF helped assure County input and consistency between the two agencies' sets of projections. FAC developed quantified migration assumptions for Orange County, and then reviewed and analyzed the DOF draft migration, fertility and mortality assumptions. County staff also developed an age -cohort model in order to evaluate the DOF draft population projections. Comparisons revealed that the DOF draft projections were within less than one percent of the County -produced projections. With such a high degree of agreement, the DOF's Baseline-83 projections were utilized as the County control totals. B. Project Draft Total County Household and Dwelling Unit Like population, dwelling units are projected Countywide and independent of direct local policy input. Given the array of approaches available and the complexity of influencing factors, five separate analyses were conducted and then converged. These techniques included two regression analyses, two headship rate models, and a simple trend analysis. A-1 Two approaches are commonly employed in forecasting housing unit:. IiB first method relies on the projection of household size, which when divided into population to produces projected dwelling units. The second approach directly projects the total number of households derived from age -specific headship rates. The number of households adjusted for a vacancy rate then yields the number of housing units. Factors such as population size, age structure, racial and ethnic composition, dwelling unit mix, and life style choices influence bath the number of households and the household size, technically referred to as persons -per -household or persons -per -dwelling -unit. 1. DOF Household Projections Household population is the net difference between total population and group quarters population, or residents of military barracks, college dormitories, old age institutions, prisons, and other group facilities. DOF develops household projections as a by-product of their age cohort projections. Their basic methodology applies headship rates to each specific age cohort of household population. Headship rates are the frequency with which a member of an age cohort is a household head. The most recent headship rates were based on 1980 Census and adjusted in future years based on local and statewide trends. Group - quarters population was projected for age and sex cohorts by DOF based on past trends and projections from state departments administering various group -quarter facilities. The DOF household projections were converted into dwelling unit projections by applying a vacancy rate. The vacancy rate was increased from 3.8 percent in 1984 to 5 percent by the year 2000 using a straight line method, and held constant thereafter. 2. PAC Modification of DOF Household Projections In reviewing the DOF household projections, PAC proposed alternative future scenarios in two areas. The first area, the projection of total group -quarters population, appeared low. The State relied, in part, on short-term projections developed by a variety of their service -provider departments. Moreover, the projections were not directly tied to the State age cohort projections. Consequently, the group -quarters population was projected to increase only 1.2 percent per year throughout the projection period. In fact, the group -quarters population in Orange. County has been growing at a rate of 3.5 percent per year and the A-2 cohort using old age facilities and college dormitories are projected to increase significantly. An independent group -quarters population was therefore developed by FAC. The PAC projection divided the group -quarters population into four segments: elderly, military, student, and others, and each one of these segments was projected separately. The elderly segment was projected by using the proportion of those in group quarters to the population over the age of 64 throughout the projection years. The growth rate of this proportion between 1970 and 1980 was applied to the 1980 baseline to generate future years' population. The military population in group quarters was held constant and the student or dormitory population was projected by applying the 1980 rate of this population to total population aged 18 to 24 to the projected population in that age cohort. Finally, all other group -quarters population was projected as a ratio of total population. These four segments were summed to derive total projected group -quarters population. Secondly, projected headship rates for Orange County and the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region were compared. Except for an increase in the cohort aged 15 to 24, the County was generally consistent with the region and especially Los Angeles County. It seemed most probable that Orange County's rate would decrease as well; the headship rate for this age group consequently was adjusted to reflect the regional trend. Using the FAC projection of group -quarters population, household population was projected. Then by applying the adjusted headship rates to the household population by age, total households were projected. These were then adjusted for vacancy rates to derive total dwelling units. The vacancy rates were held around those currently experienced. 3. Regression Model -Based Forecasts of A stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify the variables that best predict persons -per -household. For this analysis, 1980 Census data was utilized at the census tract level. Three variables were identified: percent of the population aged 0 to 17, percent of housing single family, and percent of the population white. This analysis was replicated using 1970 Census data in order to determine if the equations were stable; the results were consistent. A-3 4. 5. The total County persons -per -household from 1985 to 2010 were projected based on the regression equation applied to projections for age, dwelling unit mix, and race. The age projections were those developed from the age cohort model. Dwelling unit projections developed for a series of transportation studies were utilized to determine projected percent single family units. Finally, the percent White was projected based on trends from 1970 to 1980 and projections of race developed by SCAG. Total households were projected by dividing the projected persons -per -household factors into the projected household population. The projected household population was that derived for the FAC household projections. The projected households were adjusted for vacancy rates used in 2 above. This approach was very similar to projecting persons - per -household. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was undertaken to identify the factors that best predicted this factor for census tracts. Like the analysis above, the same three variables provided the best predictors. This analysis was also replicated using 1970 data with similar results. Dwelling units were projected directly by dividing the projected persons -per -dwelling unit into projected population. Using the vacancy rates derived in Method 2, households were also projected. All city and county general plans, zoning codes, and redevelopment plans were analyzed to determine the potential dwelling units that would be added when these were fully implemented. Far certain areas, a redevelopment potential was also calculated. It was assumed that all of this capacity would be reached by the years 2020 to 2025. It was also assumed that the growth of added units would not exceed recent trends. Specifically, 15,000 units per year would be added initially, gradually declining thereafter. Based on these assumptions, total housing units were projected. As in Method 4, vacancy rates were applied to the dwelling unit projections to derive households. The average of dwelling unit projections from the five methods was used to generate household projections, and likewise, the average of household projections was used to A-4 generate dwelling units projections. The last two solutions were then averaged, yielding final household and dwelling unit forecasts. Small Area Population and Housing Projection Procedure A. Disaggregate Draft Population and Dwelling Unit Pro to Subareas The draft total added dwelling units were disaggregated to the 10 SCAG RSAs. These were added cumulatively to the 1980 Census housing counts to derive total projected dwelling units for each five year increment. The disaggregations were based on OCP-III and adjusted for available information on general plan capacities, other land use policies, short term trends, recent development approvals, availability of land, and assumptions regarding redevelopment and infill. Persons -per -dwelling -unit factors were projected for each RSA. The factors were projected by using 1980 Census persons -per -dwelling -unit as a baseline adjusted for the Countywide rate of change. These were further reviewed and adjusted based on information regarding any significant changes in the dwelling unit mix for a particular area. Total population by RSA was then projected by applying the projected persons -per -dwelling -unit factors to the projected dwelling units. These were then controlled to the projected County population. A similar procedure was utilized to develop CAA -level projections. The total added dwelling units were allocated to the CAAs within each of the RSAs. This allocation was based on the same factors used to disaggregate the total added dwelling units to the RSAs. Likewise, persons -per - dwelling -unit factors for each CAA and portions of cities within each CAA for each five year increment. Applying these factors to projected added dwelling units, draft population figures were developed and controlled to the RSA -level projections. B. Agency Review and Input Process A major step in the process of developing the subarea population and dwelling unit projections was the solicitation of information and comments from each city planning department, the County Environmental Management Agency (EMA), and several nongovernmental agencies and organizations. Each city was provided a copy of their projections by CAA developed in the step above. Each city was requested to review and evaluate the projections, supporting their comments based on the city's policies, significant trends, foreseen policy changes, and projections the city itself may have developed. Documentation such as the general plan and its elements, annexations plans, A-5 C. D. E. phasing schedules, and zoning maps were also solicited. Similar data was solicited from EMA for the unincorporated portions of the County. Phasing data and other background information on major development projects was requested of several land developers. In addition, Annual Monitoring Reports detailing short range phasing projections required by the County of major land developments in unincorporated areas were used. Adjust Subarea Projections Based on the feedback provided by these various sources as well as the PAC assumptions regarding market conditions, the city/CAA level housing projections were adjusted, and after the application of the persons -per -dwelling -unit factors, population was adjusted. The adjusted CAA projections were then aggregated to the RSA level. Each RSA projection was evaluated and then adjusted. Next the RSA -level dwelling unit projections were aggregated and used to evaluate and adjust the County total. Secondary Review The draft city/CAA projection additional review and comment. provided, further adjustments step above. Final Draft Projections s were sent to the cities for If substantial comments were were made as described in the Upon obtaining agreement between the city staff and PAC regarding the projections, the secondary review and adjustment process terminated. These final drafts of RSA - and CAA -level projections were then reviewed by the Demographic Projections Steering Committee to obtain their concurrence. The Countywide and RSA -level projections were presented to the Board of Supervisors for adoption. A-6 POPULATION AND DWELLING PROJECTION PROCEDURE PROJECT TOTAL COUNTY POPULATION PROJECT TOTAL COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS AND DWELLING UNITS ALLOCATE POPULATION AND DWELLING UNITS TO SUB AREAS IAGENCY REVIEWI AND INPUT DEVELOP REVISED SMALL AREA PROJECTIONS SECONDARY I REVIEW ADJUST DRAFT PROJECTIONS FINAL DRAFT I PROJ] p APPENDIX B EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction This appendix describes the procedure used to produce Countywide, Regional Statistical Area (RSA) and Community Analysis Area (CAA) level employment projections. The preparation of these projections consisted of two separate but related procedures, the development of Countywide employment projections and disaggregation to smaller geographic areas. Before describing the procedure in more detail, it should be noted that the OCP-85 employment projections represent the first employment forecast adopted by the County. The Demographic Projections Steering Committee recommended the inclusion of employment projections in OCP-85. Prior to the development of these employment projections, the County utilized the "Projections of Jobs for MMTS Zones,, Orange County 1980-2020" as working numbers. These projections were developed for the Orange County Transportation Commission (OCTC) by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy with the assistance of the County. These OCTC projections have been utilized extensively by the County and were also included as the employment projections for Orange County in SCAG-82 developed by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). This current effort represents an update of these earlier OCTC employment projections, jointly developed by Orange County's Forecast and Analysis Center (FAC) and Environmental Management Agency (EMA). Projection Procedure A. Project Total County and RSA Employment Projections Concurrent with the OCP-85 effort, SCAG was modifying the adopted SCAG-82 employment projections. It was most efficient to work jointly with SCAG in developing our employment projections. This would help assure consistency between Orange County's and SCAG's projections. Since the development of the OCTC/SCAG-82 employment projections, three major data bases became available: 1. 1980 INCOM - This provides a count of employees by geographic location. it is developed jointly by the State of California Employment Development Department (EDD) and the Orange County Forecast and Analysis Center. cal 2. Urban Transportation Plannin Packa a (UTPP) - This is a special product ram t e 1980 Census. It includes data on the place of employment for workers residing in the SCAG region. 3. 1980 Census e Sugar Tape File-3 - This tape includes data on t e nu r of self-employed and unpaid family workers. These data sources were used to develop the 1980 baseline employment for the total County. An estimate for 1984 and an initial set of employment projections for 1985 through 2010 in five year increments were developed by adding to this 1980 baseline employment the new jobs projected from the OCTC/SCAG-82 employment projections. These draft figures were adjusted based on additional input. After the development of the draft projections, EDD revised their 1984 Countywide employment estimates upward based on a new 1983 benchmark. The draft 1984 employment figure was therefore adjusted upward to reflect the more recent EDD employment estimate. To obtain a 1985 forecast, the 1984 revised figure was increased by the total for the second quarter 1984 through second quarter 1985 job growth projected by the Center for Economic Research at Chapman College. This forecast was then adjusted to include self-employed and unpaid family workers based on rates derived from 1980 Census data. Employment for 1990 through 2010 was projected utilizing the same total growth projected in the draft figures. 1980 employment by RSA was derived from 1980 Census data and 1980 INCOM data, It should be noted that these 1980 baseline estimates have been revised slightly since Board adoption in February, 1985. Disaggregations for 1985 through 2010 were determined by the percentage of total employment in the RSA reflected in the OCTC/SCAG-82 employment projections. The Countywide and RSA -level projections were adopted by the Board of Supervisors, B. Disaggregate RSA Employment Projections to CAAs Before the development of OCP-89 County and RSA control totals, the OCTC employment projections were processed to develop city/CAA-level employment projections. Each city was provided a copy of the city/CAA employment corresponding to their jurisdiction, They were requested to review and evaluate the projections, and were asked to support their comments based on documented policies, trends, projections, and studies. CAA -level employment projections were developed by adjusting the draft city/CAA employment projections based on the cities' comments, Orange County Transportation Analysis Model data developed by EMA, 1980 Census data, UTPP data, and revised 1980 INCOM. These were B-2 adjusted to conform to the RSA -level projections. Revised city -level employment projections were provided to the cities, and comments were again solicited before finalizing the projections. B-3 TABLE C-1 CAA -LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 39,560 41,756 41,283 41,730 42,305 42,298 42,562 2 22,074 25,024 26,157 27,534 28,846 29,974 31,693 3 7,801 9,535 10,499 14,992 19,237 21,954 25,089 4 44,704 49,913 53,169 54,711 56,114 57,808 60,875 5 31,976 32,712 32,502 32,894 33,554 33,754 34,565 6 30,468 31,095 30,469 30,931 31,481 31,666 32,605 7 31,329 32,611 34,861 34,675 34,206 34,394 34,485 8 12,778 13,935 13,197 12,166 11,775 11,671 11,609 9 19,839 26,366 37,277 44,137 48,973 49,489 49,058 10 13,967 14,589 14,670 14,654 14,432 14,411 14,375 11 22,560 23,283 23,661 23,524 23,501 23,718 25,559 12 44,801 46,691 47,898 48,107 47,917 48,447 48,052 13 50,053 53,668 53,461 54,237 54,500 57,025 57,410 14 49,337 53,690 54,367 54,607 55,029 57,053 58,938 15 39,853 42,733 43,720 43,998 44,588 48,173 50,951 16 39,035 41,860 41,688 41,748 42,297 42,075 43,366 17 19,496 21,378 22,031 22,066 22,703 23,822 24,775 18 23,605 28,828 38,661 48,646 57,751 67,168 71,618 19 45,685 47,273 48,514 48,185 47,473 47,334 46,843 20 12,481 12,720 12,438 12,321 12,098 12,014 11,837 21 16,754 17,944 18,519 18,509 18,879 18,876 18,734 22 26,522 27,552 28,868 28,912 28,753 26,726 29,573 23 17,547 18,274 18,210 18,375 18,587 18,531 18,517 24 66,734 71,574 71,668 71,583 72,278 75,021 75,913 25 49,601 53,049 52,818 52,940 53,168 54,596 54,532 26 17,153 19,018 20,111 20,176 20,117 20,016 22,133 27 26,283 27,279 26,841 26,941 26,754 26,599 27,349 28 56,277 59,787 62,811 63,889 65,748 67,029 68,125 29 1,838 2,947 7,874 13,618 19,455 25,702 29,266 30 7,590 7,764 7,901 7,873 7,753 7,691 7,601 31 18,160 19,450 20,141 19,860 19,988 20,012 20,362 32 72,065 74,634 74,735 75,382 76,011 76,091 76,987 33 65,404 67,837 66,887 67,523 66,742 67,928 68,500 34 24,768 .28,457 30,027 32,265 33,229 34,694 37,392 35 29,342 33,502 44,331 52,568 53,658 54,438 56,104 36 58,628 63,030 63,068 63,844 63,063 63,986 65,763 37 52,770 53,390 53,511 52,758 53,009 53,051 53,792 38 33,942 38,270 39,778 41,965 43,649 45,762 46,531 39 24,516 26,935 28,029 28,422 28,571 30,548 32,357 40 96,530 108,196 119,141 121,410 122,397 125,670 128,786 41 53,421 $9,182 64,137 68,914 70,451 71,005 72,437 42 49,695 51,077 50,057 50,231 49,922 49,975 50,876 43 11,909 14,992 18,394 23,279 27,038 30,005 32,605 44 47,679 50,558 56,033 56,767 56,064 56,126 56,012 45 40,342 43,050 44,434 46,320 47,200 48,289 48,603 46 35,824 37,238 37,295 38,600 39,630 40,566 40,793 C-1 TABLE C-1 CAA -LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS (Continued) CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 47 26,721 29,136 320318 35,794 370945 38,732 39,169 48 0 0 510 507 505 507 507 49 10670 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 50 20,078 28,118 39,410 48,912 57,956 65,860 72,316 51 31,347 40,925 52,372 64,055 730111 76,606 80,367 52 11,787 16,087 26,640 430657 620501 77,106 87,745 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 71760 7,838 7,838 7,838 7,838 7,838 74838 55 1,254 1,350 1,913 2,522 3,090 3,680 4,679 56 10594 5,206 13,852 20,512 29,556 31,403 32,581 57 240139 250136 25,092 250123 24,973 25,000 25,537 58 65,499 79,535 90,549 95,691 95,529 94,967 950022 59 1,066 4,075 14,242 24,853 390791 55$89 70,809 60 1,602 10798 2,852 50599 8,161 10,861 13,672 61 19,301 200134 21,433 22,953 230741 24,629 25,528 62 30,854 340604 37,260 380739 410180 38,928 380726 63 50646 12,326 25,137 41,045 55,935 65,705 71,199 64 17,818 24,782 30,960 39,589 450941 51,419 55,251 65 4,499 4,929 40883 40922 4,903 4,907 4,871 66 5,012 5$68 5,514 5,872 5,996 60113 6,195 67 4,988 5,334 5$651 5,927 60044 60201 61316 68 230444 27,655 28,666 300410 310461 32,696 330768 69 23,134 25,988 280296 300943 33,199 35,702 37,946 TOTAL 1,932,709 20130,200 2,306,700 2,469,400 20605,400 2,7220600 208310100 C-2 TABLE C-2 CAA -LEVEL HOUSING PROJECTIONS CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 15,123 15,660 15,910 16,271 16,836 16,899 16,918 2 8,762 9,882 10,630 11,285 12,079 12,661 13,508 3 3,199 3,643 4,088 5,738 7,396 8,437 9,482 4 16,047 17,624 19,271 20,056 21,015 21,738 22,830 5 11,997 12,200 12,444 12,739 13,273 13,383 13,591 6 12,649 12,734 12,845 13,149 13,697 13,819 14,053 7 10,924 11,600 12,698 12,839 12,958 13,099 13,248 8 3,986 4,174 4,229 4,269 4,309 4,349 4,389 9 6,582 8,657 12,528 15,050 17,061 17,309 17,411 10 4,094 4,295 4,435 4,476 4,494 4,524 4,585 11 8,820 9,093 9,469 9,514 9,674 9,867 10,806 12 14,821 15,317 16,117 16,381 16,601 17,027 17,160 13 19,216 20,015 20,224 20,819 21,236 21,692 22,051 14 18,333 19,465 19,986 20,342 20,762 21,388 22,329 15 15,300 15,700 16,252 16,594 17,057 18,249 19,483 16 14,665 15,306 15,618 15,806 16,017 16,383 16,758 17 6,778 7,362 7,676 7,839 8,243 8,771 9,288 18 7,235 8,679 11,869 15,177 18,417 21,507 23,108 19 14,535 14,886 15,587 15,739 15,810 15,906 16,000 20 4,543 4,564 4,573 4,578 4,584 4,587 4,594 21 5,641 5,845 6,219 6,312 6,537 6,589 6,655 22 9,722 10,038 10,573 10,784 10,932 11,030 11,117 23 5,224 5,344 5,451 5,548 5,655 5,708 5,763 24 24,315 25,397 25,832 26,127 26,690 27,314 27,868 25 18,100 18,935 19,064 19,380 19,751 20,136 20,331 26 7,048 7,595 8,214 8,340 8,471 8,530 9,129 27 10,512 10,851 10,925 11,162 11,195 11,248 11,375 28 18,164 19,245 20,712 21,421 22,282 22,946 23,358 29 572 885 2,412 4,288 6,316 8,428 9,274 30 1,989 2,041 2,124 2,136 2,138 2,143 2,147 31 11,206 12,068 12,708 12,752 12,985 13,114 13,249 32 25,061 25,791 26,438 27,055 27,670 27,939 28,223 33 22,682 22,954 23,083 23,734 23,798 24,350 24,911 34 10,757 11,960 13,049 14,529 15,348 16,457 17,472 35 13,165 14,826 19,997 24,153 24,954 25,577 26,280 36 20,009 21,043 21,532 22,128 22,129 22,681 23,241 37 16,158 16,458 16,693 16,849 17,016 17,182 17,524 38 10,234 10,975 11,227 11,986 12,759 13,265 13,684 39 10,562 10,953 11,098 11,108 11,843 12,569 13,285 40 28,192 29,807 32,251 33,376 34,343 35,278 36,078 41 20,285 21,376 23,706 24,898 25,898 26,458 27,228 42 19,576 19,916 19,999 20,319 20,470 20,673 20,904 43 3,541 4,441 5,544 7,054 8,301 9,290 10,212 44 17,906 18,624 21,121 21,621 21,721 21,971 22,071 45 18,479 19,264 20,319 21,374 22,129 23,089 23,844 C-3 TABLE C-2 CAA -LEVEL HOUSING PROJECTIONS (Continued) CAA 1980 1985 _ 1.990 _ 1995 2000 2005 2010 46 19,536 19,832 20,032 200772 21,412 21,912 220162 47 12,171 12,014 140460 16,339 17,408 17,769 18,069 48 0 0 260 260 260 260 260 49 136 874 874 874 874 874 874 50 6,828 9,466 130408 170134 20,67O 230699 26,094 51 11,401 15,028 190597 24,143 28,340 290822 31,513 52 40519 6,142 10,373 17,027 25,030 31,048 35,557 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 1,257 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 55 596 620 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,300 56 492 19600 4,600 6,900 10,600 110600 12,100 57 8,013 8,271 80460 8,560 8,660 8,760 90020 58 22,608 27,503 320387 340275 34,713 95,251 35,460 59 704 1,384 50212 90444 15,776 22,508 29,040 60 472 622 1,041 2,121 3,251 4,381 5,560 61 10,210 10$79 11,373 12,328 12,997 13,644 14,265 62 17,765 19,578 21,606 22,700 23,200 23,500 230700 63 21106 4,405 90815 16,122 220076 26,115 280625 64 7,467 9,909 121733 16,452 19,416 21,957 23,973 65 20647 2,753 2,797 2,847 2,885 2,918 2,942 66 2,627 20800 2,950 3,175 30300 3,400 31500 67 20310 2,356 2,556 20706 2,806 20906 3,006 68 9,655 11,357 12,067 12,927 13,637 14,337 15,029 69 11,285 12,363 13,003 150243 160683 18,123 19,560 TOTAL 721,514 779,000 8598300 931,900 999,600 1,053,400 1,100,700 C-4 TABLE C-3 CAA -LEVEL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS CAA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 15,568 18,193 18,905 19,699 19,764 20,250 20,472 2 11,070 13,108 15,171 16,051 16,104 16,625 16,705 3 4,122 5,432 6,325 7,052 7,930 8,316 8,572 4 21,368 25,199 25,791 26,874 26,962 27,750 27,883 5 8,946 11,300 11,320 12,768 12,810 13,000 13,063 6 40,823 45,200 45,513 46,208 46,360 47,375 47,477 7 5,300 6,451 7,304 7,462 7,499 7,503 7,536 8 2,782 3,598 3,840 4,018 4,224 4,248 4,333 9 1,989 4,753 5,689 7,312 8,820 9,776 10,657 10 3,802 4,376 4,592 4,944 4,988 5,161 5,402 11 16,990 20,323 21,296 22,817 23,626 24,660 25,909 12 14,264 14,790 15,960 16,708 17,237 18,214 19,321 13 14,039 17,980 18,307 18,893 19,171 19,608 20,140 14 25,692 33,982 37,187 39,360 39,940 41,486 42,612 15 24,754 35,421 36,996 37,982 38,342 39,423 40,280 16 31,465 32,544 34,326 35,030 35,347 36,326 37,100 17 34,421 40,604 42,168 43,386 43,911 44,661 45,166 18 4,098 5,636 7,715 9,610 10,465 12,318 14,186 19 9,077 17,264 18,899 20,805 21,819 21,899 22,153 20 1,554 1,577 1,697 1,820 1,882 1,940 2,023 21 9,380 9,470 10,356 10,806 10,948 11,026 11,592 22 6,228 8,271 8,391 8,462 8,587 8,875 9,116 23 2,562 3,057 3,242 3,346 3,394 3,509 3,604 24 22,236 26,970 28,986 29,717 30,156 31,166 31,800 25 16,345 21,575 23,265 24,010 24,763 26,007 27,348 26 37,194 53,854 66,988 74,455 78,501 81,166 84,425 27 16,623 18,978 19,220 19,818 20,084 20,462 20,822 26 13,524 14,888 15,244 16,006 16,214 16,843 17,813 29 262 1,426 2,259 3,160 3,351 3,578 3,750 30 1,417 1,589 1,759 1,916 1,994 2,091 2,525 31 5,819 7,721 8,169 8,225 8,344 8,735 9,078 32 19,436 26,856 27,775 27,965 28,131 29,371 30,972 33 29,571 34,465 35,010 35,133 35,641 36,587 38,181 34 3,385 3,469 3,501 3,525 3,695 4,178 4,272 35 7,960 10,854 12,720 12,925 13,350 16,078 17,622 36 9,182 10,518 10,853 10,926 10,966 11,394 12,015 37 17,538 18,017 18,672 18,801 19,073 20,257 21,360 38 5,055 6,269 6,493 6,644 6,860 7,125 7,730 39 17,517 24,291 24,842 25,972 26,503 27,208 28,232 40 35,524 45,667 47,815 51,087 52,438 56,606 60,545 41 55,452 68,915 71,528 76,153 77,694 79,603 80,374 42 23,441 26,098 27,601 28,888 29,497 30,300 30,750 43 1,276 651 810 1,061 2,015 2,496 2,884 44 27,965 43,150 56,284 56,655 57,585 62,835 67,312 45 17,902 19,573 20,573 21,573 22,273 22,873 23,473 46 19,195 19,958 20,458 20,958 21,456 21,958 22,458 47 25,966 27,500 28,500 29,000 29,200 29,350 29,500 C-5 TABLE C-3 CM -LEVEL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS (Continued) CAA 1980 __ _____1985_ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 48 46,364 60,868 63,942 71,863 72,535 73,733 74,B00 49 45,897 51,859 670000 73,946 78,546 82,546 $70000 50 9,023 9,851 10,943 14,551 16,751 18,251 190657 51 4,176 9,054 17,380 18,880 200380 22,680 240000 52 5,391 2,000 20800 6,000 8,000 10,000 13,000 53 10052 13,000 23,633 30,187 330187 34,687 36,800 54 20176 3,287 30287 6,287 9,287 11,287 12,000 55 169 250 450 $50 850 950 1,050 56 81 194 1,322 10,000 160000 17,000 18,000 57 4,465 4,028 4,628 40928 50228 5,500 5,700 58 14,558 17,078 18,200 21,000 24,000 24$00 250000 59 10827 1,900 2,500 4,822 7,022 81850 100550 60 104 350 500 10000 1,500 2,000 2,600 61 8,136 70666 8$80 8,SOO 8,650 8,800 8,902 62 80304 11,939 14,019 17,170 19,170 19,610 20,222 63 3,308 3,448 8,834 19,388 30,603 36,433 41,314 64 2,886 3,382 5,527 80027 9,027 9,627 102111 65 10746 1,840 1,865 1,890 1,925 10965 1,990 66 2,183 2,250 2,300 21350 2,550 2,750 2,920 67 1,192 1,534 1,634 1,734 1,834 1,914 10984 68 7,040 7,162 7,662 8,462 9,162 9,662 9,957 69 5,655 5,979 71479 8,979 10,479 11,579 120500 TOTAL 9150812 1,1304700 1,254,600 1,366,600 1,436,600 l,506j6OQ 1,570,500 C-6 COMMUNITY ANALYSIS AREAS 6 CE. mmoc CW "HIRISTRATIVE amicE. FORcc�r MID i1W "ls CENTER RBA A-36 B-41 C-43 D-40 E-44 F-39 G-42 H-37 I-38 J-35 1980 LAND USE CHARACTERISTICS TABLE D-1 RSA PROFILE DATA PERCENT OF PERCENT OF LAND IN TOTAL TOTAL COUNTY RESIDENTIAL ACREAGE ACREAGE USE 23, 628 4.6 31.3 67,126 13.1 14.3 151,000 29. 6 5.1 57,754 11.3 19.8 43,130 8.4 6.3 39,802 7.8 26.1 42, 03B 8.2 $5. 1 30,892 6.1 61.5 38,420 7.5 47.1 16,732 3.3 52.2 TOTAL COUNTY 510,522 PERCENT OF PERCENT OF LAND IN LAND IN PERCENT OF COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL LAND IN USE --------------------------------------- USE PUBLIC USE 6. 5 8.8 6.4 0.7 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 2.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 5.5 0.8 7.4 3.7 4. 9 9.5 10.0 5.6 10.0 8.1 7.6 6.1 5.0 5.4 7.9 6.1 6.9 100.0 24.1 9.7 3.5 2.6 TABLE 0-1 Continued -------------------------....----...........n..----»-----------r-----..---------------.........r-loll, PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT OF OF LAND IN OF LAND IN OP LAND IN OF VACANT LAND IN OPEN UNCOHNITTED AGRICULTURAL EXTRACTIVE PERCENT OF LAND WITH RSA SPACE Use USES USE UK LAND VACANT > 30% SLOPE -----------------------------------------------------------------------"'------------------" A-36 3.0 20.3 1.7 9.4 10.3 0.0 8-41 10.4 63.0 3.2 5.6 $6.3 18.4 C-49 48.1 43.7 0.1 0.3 38.2 6.4 D-40 3.1 70.0 1.5 0.0 ". S 14.8 E-44 14.0 $7.0 32.0 0.3 94.3 2.7 F-39 7.2 41.6 1.9 1.3 30.4 2.1 0-42 9.3 12.6 3.6 0.6 9.4 1.5 H-37 2.0 4.0 1.7 0.1 2.9 0.0 I-38 6.8 12. S 2.1 4.8 5.6 0.0 J-38 7.4 7.6 3.8 0.0 3.6 0.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL COUNTY 19. 0 40.9 3.7 1.9 33.4 4.3 ------------'.--------------------"-------------------------------------------------------- D-2 TABLE D-1 Continued 1980 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS -----------------------------------------------------------------'--------- PERCENT PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF OF TOTAL PERCENT OF PERCENT OF POPULATION POP. ASIAN POPULATION TOTAL COUNTY POPULATION POPULATION OF SPANISH & PACIFIC NATIVE RSA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POPULATION POPULATION WHITE BLACK ORIGIN ISLANDER AMERICAN A-36 168,782 8.7 86.6 1. 1 16.0 3.7 0.6 B-41 116,686 6.0 88.9 1.2 12.2 4.1 0.6 C-43 95,954 5.0 93.4 0.8 6.4 3.2 0.6 D-40 1340696 7.0 95.1 0.5 6.3 1.7 0.6 E-44 52,564 2.7 84.2 3.7 8.8 7.2 0.5 F-39 170,644 0.8 92.5 0.7 6.8 3.6 0.5 0-42 377,316 19.5 76.3 2.7 29.3 4.4 0.7 H-37 338,682 17.5 85.4 1.0 16.4 4.9 0.8 1-38 321,137 16.6 89.1 0.7 8.5 5.8 0.7 J-35 156,248 8.1 87.1 1.2 13.3 5.6 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL COUNTY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,932,709 100.0 85.9 1.3 14.8 4.5 0.7 D-3 TABLE D-i Continued ---------------------------------..-------------------------------------------------------- PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT % MOVED PERCENT OF POPU- OF POPU- MIGRATED MIGRATED FROM PERCENT INCREASE LATION LATION FROM FROM ORANGE IN SAME PERCENT IN POPU- FERTILITY DEATH UNDER OVER ABROAD OTHER US COUNTY HOUSE FOREIGN LATION RBA RATE RATE AGE 18 AGE 65 5 YR AGO 5 YR AGO 5 YR AGO 1975-60 BORN 1980-64 -..------- w----- ----------------------------------------------- ,...--------------------------- A-36 62.9 6.2 25.7 0.1 3.2 26.8 25.9 45.1 11.4 3.2 6-41 55.3 3.3 32.3 3.6 2.3 25.4 34.6 37.3 9.7 10.0 C-43 60.7 3.4 33.0 4.9 2.7 35.7 34.0 27.6 9.1 16.5 D-40 57.2 10.9 19.4 23.0 2.2 30.8 26.0 38.3 10.3 13.6 E-44 40.8 2.4 29.6 2.6 4.5 46.1 32.1 17.3 12.0 24.8 F-39 42.6 4.0 20.1 0.9 4.3 25.0 32.3 38. 5 11.2 6.2 9-42 90.2 6. 0 29.3 7.2 7.9 17. 6 32.11 41.7 21.5 6.5 H-37 76.1 6.9 26.4 8.3 4.9 20.9 30.3 44.7 13.7 4.9 1-30 $2.4 6.1 27.9 2.4 3.7 26.5 26.2 43.6 11.0 3.4 J-35 $3. 5 5.4 29 3 5.4 3.3 26.0 19.7 50.2 10.2 1.4 TOTAL COUNTY 65.0 6.9 27.2 9.3 4.5 24.9 29.4 41.4 13.3 6.9 ---------------------------^----------------------------------------------------------- - --- D-4 TABLE D-1 Continued 1980 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS DWELLING PERCENT PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT UNITS PERSONS TOTAL OF TOTAL HOUSING HOUSING HOUSING INCREASE PER PER DWELLING COUNTY SINGLE MULTIPLE MOBILE IN UNITS REBID. DWELLING RSA --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UNITS HOUSING FAMILY FAMILY HOMES 1980-84 ACRE UNIT A-36 64,578 9.0 61.9 34.6 3.4 4.5 3.32 2.61 8-41 39,276 5.4 74.0 23.0 3.0 9.5 4.08 2.97 C-43 32,885 4.6 85.8 10.4 3.7 16.9 4.23 2.92 D-40 66,072 9.2 56.8 39.9 3.3 10.1 5.77 2.04 E-44 17,313 2.4 79.1 16.9 4.0 24.9 6.33 3. 04 F-39 74,920 10.4 55.1 42.5 2.4 4.3 7.21 2.28 0-42 130,103 18.0 58.5 37.8 3.8 3.0 5.61 2.90 H-37 124,875 17.3 54.6 40.3 5.0 2.7 6.57 2.71 I-38 119,038 16.3 61.7 33.6 4.7 3.2 6.57 2.70 J-33 321454 7.3 72.1 26.4 1.5 1.4 6.01 2.98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL COUNTY 721,514 100.0 61.7 34.6 3.7 5.3 3.86 2.68 D-5 TABLE O-1 Continued PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT MEDIAN OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS OF UNITS MEDIAN NONE RENTER BUILT BUILT BUILT BUILT RSA RENT VALUE OCCUPIED 1970-1900 1960-1969 1950-1969 BEFORE 1949 r--------- ------------rrr-,-rr w r w---w---- --r - rrrr r ----.-r--w-------- A-34 $297 $95, 236 40.5 30.1 31.2 29.3 9.4 B-41 $394 ♦126, 557 24.7 64.5 213.3 4.1 3.1 C-43 $453 0130, 509 17.6 02.4 1517 0.6 1.3 D-40 ►373 $144, 040 30.9 30.5 30.0 9.8 9.6 E-44 0419 0132, 464 29.2 90.5 4.1 2.6 2.8 F-39 $371 ♦145, 042 51.4 35.7 33.9 20.2 10.9 0-42 $319 $90, 356 45.0 30.7 36.9 20.0 12.5 H-37 0300 007,303 46.9 23.7 34. S 33.2 6.3 I-34 $357 •113, 191 36.6 41.0 45.9 9.2 4.1 J-35 0337 099, 910 33.9 29.0 42.4 23.7 4.9 TOTAL COUNTY $336 0100, 100 39.5 39.0 34. 6 18.9 7.5 --- ---- wr-w----rr---w-w----w------------ w----- ------------ -w----------r----ww--------------- n-6 TABLE D-1 Continued 1980 EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS PERCENT TOTAL OF TOTAL RSA JOBS COUNTY JOBS A-36 97,775 10.7 0-41 52,974 5.8 C-43 21,204 2.3 D-40 40,450 4.4 E-44 58,692 6.4 F-39 146,415 16.0 0-42 207,023 22.6 H-37 143,321 15.6 I-38 92,891 10.1 J-35 55,067 6.0 TOTAL COON' SOURCE: ORANGE COUNTY Al LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS Residential. Single and multiple family residences; mobile homes and mobile home parks including any vacant spaces; estates, ranches, farmsteads, and vacation homes. Commercial. Regional shopping complexes; areas of various services 1ocated along major highways and traffic corridors; neighborhood shopping centers; commercial storage areas; commercial offices providing financial business, professional, and non-professional services, wholesale sales offices and showrooms; major hotels and motels; sports stadiums, race tracks, amusement parks, drive-in theaters, fairgrounds, etc. Industrial. Industrial and manufacturing facilities including research and development facilities, assembly plants, foundries, smelters, processing plans, wrecking yards, motion picture and television studios and sets, warehouses, and wholesale shipping centers; major oil refineries and associated petro-chemical plants. Public/Institutional. Includes all government offices and facilities, health care facilities, special institutional facilities, emergency response facilities, and religious facilities. Among these are civil offices, jails, post offices, courts, libraries, hospitals, clinics, sanitariums, police and fire stations, churches, temples, public and private schools, universities, colleges, etc. o en S ace/Recreation. Beaches; local and regional parks, nat,ona forests; golf courses; cemeteries, wildlife preserves; recreational marinas; public and private campgrounds. Other Committed or Urban Uses. Transportation facilities such as airports; train term pals, stations and rights -of - way which exceed 200 feet in width; harbor facilities, docks, and ship repair and dredging operations; freeways, interchanges and highways exceeding 200 feet in width, Communication facilities such as radio, television and telephone communications facilities; broadcast towers and associated buildings; transportation and communication corridor zones. Utilities, including power -generating plants and substations; power lines and rights of way exceeding 200' in width; solid and liquid waste disposal facilities; domestic water reservoirs; gas and petroleum distribution systems. Military lands and installations owned, operated or controlled by any branch of the U.S. armed forces or the California National Guard. Lakes, D-8 lagoons, pumping plants, flood control channels and natural stream courses which perennially exceed 200 feet in width. Agriculture. Field crops; truck crops; orchards; vineyards; fenced rangelands; dairy facilities; feed lots; slaughter yards; poultry and horse ranches; commercial greenhouses. Extraction. Oil and gas extraction and associated storage facilities; mineral extraction activities, including rock products, sand, gravel, metals, and other non-metals. Vacant and Undeveloped Land. Includes unimproved lands as well as those with existing infrastructure, such as streets, sewers, lighting, etc. D-9 DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS STEERING COMMITTEE LARRY PARRISH County Administrative Office BRAD GATES Sheriff -Coroner LARRY HOLMS Fire Department LARRY LEAMAN Social Services Agency STAN OFTELIE Orange County Transportation Commission JAMES REICHERT Orange County Transportation District MURRAY STORM Environmental Management Agency THOMAS URAM Health Care Agency RECEIVE') Plzrarc s JAN 161986 � CFe r PREPARED BY: THE ORANGE COUNTY ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE Larry Parrish , County Administrative Officer FORECAST AND ANALYSIS CENTER Bob Wilson, Manager ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA 1985