Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutGP UPDATE FISCAL ANALYSIS PAPERSGP UPDATE FISCAL ANALYSIS PAPERS TOURISM AND LODGING ISSUE PAPER NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN UPDATE November 9, 2004 Prepared for City of Newport Beach Prepared by Applied Development Economics 2029 University Avenue • Berkeley, California 94704 • (510) 548-5912 1029 J Street, Suite 310 • Sacramento, California 95814 • (916) 441-0323 www.adeusa.com In Association with EIP Associates Urban Crossroads CONTENTS 1. Introduction..........................................................................1 2. Tourism Market.................................................................... 3 3. Newport Beach Lodging........................................................ 8 4. Tourism and Lodging Impacts ............................................. 23 5. Conclusion: Further Questions ............................................ 29 TABLES 1 Estimated Newport Beach Visitors 2003................................. 4 2 Purpose of Visit by Newport Beach Visitors ........................... 4 3 Attractions Visited by Newport Beach Visitors ....................... 5 4 Newport Beach Visitor Spending by Major Spending Category, 2003................................................... 6 5 Visitor Spending at Newport Beach Retail Stores 2003................................................................................... 7 6-Sutmnary of Orange County Hotels and Motels, 2004.................................................................................10 7 Hotels and Motels in Newport Beach...................................11 8 Average Annual Occupancy Rate Newport Beach and Coastal/South Orange County Hotels and Motels 1998 To 2003.......................................................14 9 Average Monthly Occupancy Rate Newport Beach and Coastal/South Orange County Hotels and Motels, 2003 To 2004......................................................16 10 California Bed & Breakfast Inns Summary of Statistical Data.................................................................19 11 Travel Park Monthly and Annual Occupancy Trends California, 2003....................................................21 12 Summer Time ADT Comparison.......................................25 13 Peak Summer Time Daily Volume Variation ......................26 14 Trip Rates........................................................................... 27 J 1. INTRODUCTION With its attractive beaches and extensive harbor and marina facilities, Newport Beach has been a prime visitor destination for many years. The General Plan Update process recognized early on the need to address issues related to the costs and benefits of visitor trade, particularly related to the lodging industry. This paper presents a summary of information and public opinions generated to date regarding tourism and hotel development in the City, and provides a framework for further discussion of potential land use and circulation policies in the General Plan as well as economic development strategies for the City. In the Visioning Process, the City identified its vision for 2025 along several dimensions including community character, growth and development, healthy natural environment and others. The theme of balancing visitor -serving amenities and activities with local residents' desired character of the community is prevalent through much of the Vision Statement. The Community Character section states in part, "[t]he successful balancing of the needs of residents, businesses and visitors has been accomplished with the recognition that Newport Beach is primarily a residential community." Under the heading of Recreation Opportunities, the vision says, "Newport Beach attracts visitors with its harbor, beaches, restaurants and shopping. We are a residential and recreational seaside community willing and eager to share its natural resources with visitors without diminishing these irreplaceable assets in order to share them." The vision for Boating and Waterways acknowledges that, "[w]e are recognized as a premier recreational boating harbor," but emphasizes the low density, non -intrusive character of on -shore development in the lower bay and the unencumbered shoreline in the upper bay. Applied Development Economics The various public input opportunities during the Visioning Process elicited a variety of statements from the public about their interest in supporting tourism in Newport Beach and the desired characteristics of future lodging developments and other visitor attractions. Most participants in the process favored tourism, but were generally not receptive to extensive new hotel development. There was modest support for additional tourism amenities such as public restrooms, shuttle busses, and parking, although a majority of both residents and businesses opposed adding more retail shops and restaurants to serve visitors. If new hotels are to be built, residents of the City were more interested in small scale projects, while business participants favored larger hotels. Most people agreed that the Airport Area and Newport Center would be better locations for future new hotels, than would areas like Mariner's Mile, Lido Marina Village, or Newport Dunes. Finally, the City has established a set of Guiding Principles for the General Plan Update process, among which is the statement that, "[t]he General Plan shall support the careful expansion of visitor - serving businesses and facilities, including hotels and meeting facilities." Applied Development Economics 2. TOURISM MARKET Newport Beach is one of California's most popular visitor destinations, and the impact that visitors make on the local economy is significant. The city functions as both an overnight destination with its own amenities and visitor attractions, and as a daytrip destination, sometimes as part of an itinerary that includes other Southern California destinations, but mainly as a single -day outing for much of the Southern California population. VISITOR TRENDS According to a 2001 study done by CIC Research, Newport Beach has approximately 7.2 million visitors annually. Of these visits, about one million of them involved an overnight stay, while the remaining 6.2 million visitors were day visitors. The overall downturn in tourism and the impact of 9/11 was not accounted for in that CIC study. Using more recent lodging occupancy data as an indicator of overnight visits, it appears that the number of overnight visitors has declined to approximately 870,000. The day visitor market was not as severely impacted by 9/11 (and possibly temporarily increased), so our analysis does not assume any changes to those patterns. This reduces the current estimate of annual visitors to about 7.1 million (Table 1). As discussed later in this report, hotel occupancy trends have been steadily rising since 2001 and will likely be restored to pre- 9/11 levels in the next couple years. Applied Development Economics TABLE 1 Estimated Newport Beach Visitors 2003 2003 Totals Total Visitors 7,058,440 OvemightVisitors 869,440 Day Visitors 6,189,000 Source: ADE, data from CIC Research and Smith Travcl Researdi PURPOSE OF VISITS In general, visitor trips to Newport Beach were for Pleasure or vacationing (59%). Visits with friends and relatives accounted for about 20 percent of Newport Beach trips. Shopping, business, conventions/ meetings, and special events were the other primary reasons for visiting Newport Beach (Table 2). TABLE 2 Purpose Of Visit By Newport Beach Visitors Percentage of Visitors Pleasure/Vacadon 59.2% Visit friends/relatives 19.7% Shopping 7.8% Business 6.2% Convention/Meeting 3.8% Special event 2.1% Personal reasons 0.8% Spouse/friend business 0.3% Other 0.2% Source ADE, data from CIC Research The most popular attractions that visitors to Newport Beach visited at some point during their itinerary were the beaches, which over 64 percent of visitors visited during their trips (Table 3). Other popular attractions include restaurants, Fashion Island, Disneyland, Balboa Peninsula/Island, and other shopping areas in Newport Beach. Each of these attractions were visited by at least 30 percent of Newport Beach's Applied Development Economics overnight and day trip visitors. Out of a total of about 7.1 million annual overnight and day trip visitors, this means that each of those attractions accounted for more than 2 million visits from Newport Beach visitors. TABLE 3 Attractions Visited By Newport Beach Visitors Attractions Visited Percentage orintendtoVisit of Visitors Beaches 63.Sa/a Dining In Newport Beach 42.7% Fashion Island 40.7% Disneyland 38.8% Balboa Pavilion/Island/Pier 39.0% Beach area strolling 29.6a/c Shopping in Newport Beach 24.4% South Coast Plaza 16.3% Universal Studios 15.5% Hollywood 12.6a/a Sunbathing at Newport Beach 11.4% Knotes Berry Farm 10.1% San Diego Zoo 9.7% Sea World 8.3% Harbor area sightseeing 7.8% The Block at Orange 6.6% Surfing at Newport Beach 6.5% Soume: ADE, data from CIC Research SPENDING PATTERNS Overall, the direct spending by Newport Beach visitors totals approximately $852 million annually (Table 4). Overnight visitors account for $584 million in direct spending, while day visitors directly contribute about $268 million to the local economy. Applied Development Economics TABLE 4 Newport Beach Visitor Spending By Major Spending Category, 2003 Spending Category Overnight Daytrip Total Lodging $301,310,828 $0 $301,310,828 Meals $93,339,715 $83,268,863 $176,608,578 Shopping $111,337,245 $100,547,022 $211,884,267 Visitor Attractions $26,705,501 $32,545,906 $59,251,407 Transportation $30,413,584 $39,337,597 $69,751,181 Misc. And Convenience $20,777,186 $9,271,514 $30,048,700 Other Spending $143,485 $2,542,329 $2,685,814 Total $584,027,544 $267,513,231 $851,540,775 Source ADE, Data Prom CIC Research And Smith Travel Research About $301 million of the total visitor spending goes towards overnight accommodations, which include hotels and motels, as well as vacation rentals and other types of lodging. Another $419 million in visitor spending goes to Newport Beach retail stores. Given that Newport Beach's annual retail sales totals about $1.5 billion, the impact of the visitor market on the local economy is significant. The distribution of the retail spending shows that the largest magnets for visitor spending in Newport Beach are the local restaurants (Table 5). These eating establishments annually attract about $177 million. Applied Development Economics TABLE 5 Visitor Spending At Newport Beach Retail Stores 2003 Retail Group Visitor Spending Total $418,541,546 Apparel Store Group $42,825,058 Women'sApparel $22,895,630 Men's Apparel $10,105,758 Familygothing $6,530,089 Shoe Stores $3,293,581 General Merchandise Group $101,821,637 Department & Dry Goods $94,433,911 Drug & Proprietary Stores $7,326,565 Specialty Retail Group $74,625,298 Gifts & Novelties $9,352,943 Sporting Goods $10,533,707 Florists $2,286,283 Photographic Equipment $811,165 Records & Music $834,333 Books & Stationery $5,511,658 Jewelry $10,425,267 Misc. Specialty Retail $34,869,942 Food, Eating and Drinking Group $199,269,552 Grocery Stores $19,252,793 Specialty Food Stores $1,163,468 Liquor Stores $2,244,713 Eating Places $176,608,578 Source ADE, data from State Board of Equalization, CIC Research, and Smith Travel Research. Local -department stores attract an additional $94 million in visitor spending. Other major sources of visitor spending include apparel stores and various specialty retail stores. Within Newport Beach, Fashion Island accounts for the largest proportion of visitor spending. Fashion Island accounts for $157 million of visitor spending. Given the high amount of visitor spending that goes to Newport Beach department stores, this pattern is not surprising. Applied Development Economics 7 3. NEWPORT BEACH LODGING Newport Beach has a diverse and far reaching lodging market that serves a variety of customers. The lodging market consists of all types of transient accommodations, including private residences. The lodging market for Newport Beach can be separated into four major groupings, hotel/motel establishments, bed and breakfast facilities, travel parks and vacation rentals. Hotel/motel establishments have a wide range of facilities, rooms, amenities, and price ranges. At the lower priced end of the market, economy hotels and motels simply provide a room with a private bathroom and basic amenities such as a TV, phone, and closet space. The middle market hotels typically have better appointed rooms with more amenities, while luxury resort hotels typically add conference facilities, restaurants, and resort amenities. As discussed further below, this market in Newport beach is further segmented into budget/economy hotels, middle market hotels, and luxury hotels and resorts. The Newport Beach market tends to cater much more heavily to the latter segment. ■ Bed and breakfast establishments are different from hotels and motels in that they often more closely resemble a private residence. This means that the rooms are not always private or separated from the rest of the facility like they typically are in a hotel or motel. Throughout California, the majority of B&B owners live on the premises with very little absentee ownership. Often, B&B rooms have shared restrooms and/or a common dining area. In addition, they typically accommodate no more than 20 rooms in a single facility. As noted below, B&B's can also occupy small scale commercial buildings, such as the Doryman's Inn in Newport Beach. This model may more Applied Development Economics applicable to Newport Beach than residences converted to lodging, of which there are currently none in the City. ■ Travel parks primarily serve recreational vehicles, and mostly offer a space and utility hookups with no permanent structures used for overnight accommodations. Some travel parks provide recreational facilities, meeting rooms, and limited retail services. ■ Use of residential properties for seasonal rentals (summer weekly/winter monthly) is allowed in Newport Beach through the Short Term Lodging Permit procedures. These types of visitor accommodations are generally located within residential neighborhoods with a strong beach orientation. The highest concentration of seasonal rentals occurs on the Balboa Peninsula and in West Newport, although they can be found in all of the beach and bay residential areas. This segment of the market is not analyzed extensively in this paper, but some observations about both beneficial and adverse impacts of vacation rentals are included in Section 4 below. HOTEL/MOTEL MARKET Hotels and motels constitute the largest segment of the lodging market. In general, these facilities offer rooms with a wide range of accompanying amenities and locational options. LOCAL SETTING Orange County constitutes one of the largest hotel lodging markets in the country, with a total of nearly 438 hotel and motel establishments, comprising over 53,600 guest rooms.' This works out to an average of 122 rooms per location. The largest portion of this lodging is located in Anaheim, which has 137 I Snuth Travel Research; does not include bed & breakfast inns. Applied Development Economics establishments and over 19,500 guest rooms, with an average of 142 rooms per establishment (Table 6). TABLE 6 Summary Of Orange County Hotels And Motels, 2004 city Hotels and Rooms Rooms Motels per Hotel Newport Beach, CA 15 2,787 186 Anaheim, CA 137 19,518 142 Santa Ana, CA 33 3,719 113 Costa Mesa, CA 29 3,643 126 Irvine, CA 13 3,258 251 Garden Grove, CA 19 3,008 158 Buena Park, CA 26 2,649 102 Orange, CA 16 1,741 109 Dana Point, CA 10 1,716 172 Huntington Beach, CA 15 1,663 111 Fullerton, CA 11 1,280 116 Laguna Beach, CA 20 1,206 60 Other Orange County Cities 94 7,563 80 Source: ADE, data from Smith Travel Research Excluding timeshare resorts and bed & breakfast inns, Newport Beach has a total of 15 hotels and motels with a total of nearly 2,800 guest rooms (Table 7)? In addition, there are approximately 625 residential units used as vacation rentals. In Newport Beach, the lodging facilities tend to be larger and have more rooms that do motels/hotels in other communities in the county except for Irvine. a The information in Appendix A includes a timeshare project, a bed and breakfast inn and a residential unit with two rooms that are not included in the figures in Table 7. Applied Development Economics 10 TABLE 7 Hotels and Motels in Newport Beach Hotel Facility Opeaniing te Rooms Market Segment Balboa Inn Jun 1929 34 Luxury/Resort Portofino Beach Hotel Jun 1930 15 Luxury/Resort Newport Channel Inn FTPr1962 30 Economy Best Western Bay Shores Inn Jun 1963 25 Midmarket Hyatt Regency Newport Beach Jun 1963 403 Luxury/Resort Best Western Newport Beach Inn Jun 1970 49 Mldmarket Radisson Newport Beach Jun 1974 335 Luxury/Resort Marriott Newport Bch Hotel &Tennis qb Apr 1975 532 Luxury/Resort Little Inn By The Bay Jun 1976 30 Economy Sutton Place Hotel Jun 1983 435 Luxury/Resort Four Seasons Newport Beach Jun1986 295 Luxury/Resort Marriott Newport Beach Suites Jun1988 254 Luxury/Resort Holiday Inn Express Hotel Newport Beach I Jun 1990 54 Mldmarket Balboa Bay Club lan 2003 132 Luxury/Resort Extended Stay America Mar 2001 164 Mldmarket Oranoe County Almort Source. ADE, data from Smith Travel Research, Newport Beach Conference & visitors Bumau, and AAA. RECENT ORANGE COUNTY HOTEYMOTEL TRENDS Since 1990, Newport Beach has added three new hotels, comprising 350 guest rooms. Two of these were in the mid -market segment while one was in the luxury/resort class. This represents a 14 percent increase in the room inventory during that time. By comparison, Orange County as a whole added over 12,400 rooms during that period, an increase of 30 percent. HOTEL/MOTEL MARKET SEGMENTS In general, the hotel market fits into one of three general classifications: budget/economy, midscale, and luxury. These classifications are typically defined based on room rates, level of service, amenities, and other on -site offerings. Budget/Economy Hotels The first market segment that is represented in the Newport Beach lodging market area is Applied Development Economics 11 Budget/Economy Hotels. These hotels are generally room -only hotels with little public space, no bars, and few amenities. These hotels generally serve budget tourists and highway travelers passing through a community on their way to another destination. Overhead costs are kept extremely low as the profit margin for these establishments is very narrow, it is typically a highly competitive market segment, and requires high turn over of rooms and cost savings. Average room rates for these hotels are generally under $75 per night in 2004. However, Newport Beach's low supply and high year-round lodging demand means that hotels and motels with limited amenities can seasonally charge $100 or more per night? Newport Beach currently only has two lodging facilities that serve the budget market. Middle -Market Hotels Newport Beach also has a limited number of middle - market hotels. Middle -market hotels generally have more amenities than budget hotels, such as restaurants, spas/jacuzzis, meeting rooms, and business services. Four facilities comprising a total of nearly 300 guest rooms fit this description, two of which have been added since 1990. Luxury Hotels and Resorts Luxury hotels and resorts comprise the vast majority of the lodging market in Newport Beach. Newport Beach has clearly concentrated on the high end of the lodging market. Luxury hotels generally provide high quality service, extensive room and shared amenities, and are often destination places due to their unique and sophisticated character. Within this category, Newport Beach facilities range from small boutique hotels such as the Portofino and the Balboa Inn to large full service resorts such as the Four Seasons Hotel, which also cater heavily to the business travel market. 3 "Rack rate" information derived from price ranges listed in AAA Tourbook and hotel websites. Applied Development Economics 72 OCCUPANCY AND REVENUE As noted earlier, the supply of hotel rooms in Newport Beach has not grown much since 1990, while the rest of Orange County's lodging supply grew more than twice as fast. In recent years, Newport Beach's occupancy rates have mirrored those of the other coastal communities and south Orange County! Because of the relatively slow growth in the lodging supply, this indicates that Newport Beach's share of the overall lodging market in the region has decreased. Despite growth in the room supply elsewhere in the regional hotel market, Newport Beach has consistently captured significantly higher room rates than the rest of the County, although the trend recently has been closing the gap. In 1998, the occupancy rate in Newport Beach was 69 percent and grew to 75 percent by 2000 (Table 8) s However, the annual occupancy rate by 2002 had declined to 63 percent. This is due to a combination of factors. First, the regional economy went through a sustained economic downturn beginning in 2000. This decreased both the amount of disposable income available to leisure travelers, and the travel budgets available to business travelers. This is important given that the Newport Beach hotel market depends on both overnight visitors and business travel. In addition, the national and international tourism markets went into sharp decline after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the ensuing national travel reduction. This exacerbated the negative trends for overnight travel that had already begun earlier in the year. 4 The area encompassing the coastal communities and south Orange County includes all of the beach communities between Huntington Beach and San Clemente, and all of the cities along the I-5/405 corridor south of and including Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, and Irvine. 5 Data from Smith Travel Research, the occupancy rates are calculated from a sample of reporting hotels. In Newport Beach, this sample represents approximately 2,413 of the 2,787 total rooms in the city. For the Coastal/South Orange County area, the sample covers 14,126 of the 18,510 hotel rooms in the area. Some hotels did not report data for every month during the sample period between January 1998 and August 2004. Applied Development Economics 13 TABLE 8 Average Annual Occupancy Rate Newport Beach And Coastal/South Orange County Hotels And Motels 1998 To 2003 Occupancy Rate (%) Room Rate Year Newport Coastal/ South Newport Coastal/ South Beach Orange County Beach Orange County 1998 68.5 66.4 $137.13 $89.66 1999 70.8 69.0 $141.47 $91.22 2000 74.5 72.7 $148.18 $96.47 2001 62.6 66.6 $149.14 $99.45 2002 64.2 64.0 $134.45 $98.76 2003 66.0 67.4 $127.41 $102.33 2004 YID (thru August) 70.5 72.8 $132.54 $108.06 Source: ADE, data from Smith Travel Research Notes: Daily room rates based on a sample of lodging establishments reporting data. The area encompassing the coastal communities and south Orange County includes all of the beach communities between Huntington Beach and San Clemente, and all of the cities along the I-5/405 corridor south of and including Costa Mesa and Irvine. In 2003, the occupancy rate in Newport Beach recovered to 66 percent and the year-to-date occupancy rate through August 2004 was 71 percent (although this is not comparable to the prior full years' data due to the seasonality of the tourism market). Similarly, the occupancy rates for Coastal/South Orange County increased from 66 percent to 73 percent between 1998 and 2000. Although this area did not decline nearly as severely in 2001 as Newport Beach did, by 2002 the Coastal/South Orange County occupancy rate of 64 percent was identical to the rate in Newport Beach. Despite the decline in occupancy rates, the average room rate consistently increased between 1998 and 2001, from $137 to $149 per night. However, during 2002 and 2003, Newport Beach's average room rates steadily decreased to $127. While still higher than the County average, it is showing an opposite trend. The year-to-date average room rate shows a slight recovery to about $133 through August 2004, although, again, this subject to the seasonality in the Applied Development Economics 14 market and is not strictly comparable to the annual averages for prior years. During this same period, the Coastal/South Orange County did not show any annual decline in the average room rate. Between 1998 and 2003, the room rate increased from $90 to $102, with only one minor year-to-year decrease in the average room rate. Very clearly, Newport Beach's overnight lodging market felt the post-9/11 travel impact more severely than the Coastal/South Orange County area did, although occupancy rates appear to be recovering. It is also possible Newport Beach is experiencing more competition recently in the South Coast market. With the completion of the St. Regis, the Montage Resort and the Hyatt Regency in Huntington Beach in the past few years, older facilities in Newport Beach do not compare as well to these newer properties. On a seasonal basis, the occupancy in Newport Beach generally peaks in July and August, with the lowest average occupancy in December (Table 9). The peak month in 2003 was July with an occupancy rate of nearly 81 percent. The low occupancy point was the 52 percent rate in December. By comparison, the occupancy for the Coastal/South Orange County area in 2003 ranged from a peak of 81 percent (August) to a low of 59 percent (December). Applied Development Economics TABLE 9 Average Monthly Occupancy Rate Newport Beach And Coastal/South Orange County Hotels And Motels, 2003 To 2004 Month Average Monthly Occupancy Rate (%) Coastal/ Newport South Orange Beach County Jan 2003 62.7 60.7 Feb 2003 64.0 64.0 Mar 2003 63.0 63.5 Apr2003 62.8 63.4 May 2003 62.0 66.1 Jun 2003 71.1 71.0 Ju12003 80.7 79.5 Aug 2003 80.1 80.9 Sep 2003 64.9 65.3 Oct 2003 68.7 68.7 Nov 2003 59.5 65.2 Dec 2003 52.0 59.5 Source: ADE, data from Smith Travel Research Notes: Daily room rates based on a sample of lodging establishments reporting data. The area encompassing the coastal communities and south Orange County includes all of the beach communities between Huntington Beach and San Clemente, and all of the cities along the I-5/405 corridor south of and including Costa Mesa and Irvine. SITE CHARACTERISTICS The site development requirements for a typical economy/budget or midmarket hotel are about 2.5 acres of land needed for a 60-room facility. The indoor space will be about 15,000 to 25,000 square feet. Development requirements for luxury resorts and higher end properties vary considerably depending on the types of on -site amenities provided. GENERAL POTENTIAL FOR NEW HOTEL/MOTEL DEVELOPMENT Typical rules of thumb for new hotel development require an average annual occupancy of between 60 and 70 percent in order for a project to break even. Judging by these standards, Newport Beach is about Applied Development Economics 16 where it should be in terms of its hotel room supply. This would also indicate at least some potential for new lodging, provided that the market continues to recover to pre-9/11 levels. The decline in room rates over the last two years indicates that the support for expanded lodging in Newport Beach might still need more time to recover. BED & BREAKFAST INN MARKET The bed & breakfast (B&B) lodging market generally serves a more upscale market than budget and midmarket hotel options. Rather than physical amenities such as recreation and conference facilities, B&Bs typically offer highly personalized service and location amenities such as a historic neighborhood, unique architecture, or a natural setting. LOCAL SETTING The California Association of Bed & Breakfast Inns (CABBI) identified a total of four lodging establishments in Orange County that are considered B&Bs* &Bs 'None of these facilities are located in Newport Beach. However, one establishment in Newport Beach, the 11-room Doryman's Inn, classifies itself as a bed & breakfast establishment. It is important to note that this is not a residential -type establishment; rather, it occupies a two-story commercial building. While some residential properties in Newport Beach may be suitable for B&B operations, previous discussions of this type of facility have snagged over the issue of parking requirements and the inability of residential neighborhoods in Newport Beach to absorb the parking needs of transient lodging facilities. The Doryman's, located in a commercial district near the waterfront, likely does not experience this constraint as much. 6 This total is separate from hotels and motels. Applied Development Economics 77 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS The aspects that distinguish a B&B from a typical hotel or motel are the high level of involvement by the owners, and the small scale of typical B&B operations. In California, about 68 percent of B&B owners live on the premises, with an additional 12 percent that reside within one -mile.? Because of this high degree of involvement by ownership, B&Bs typically maintain a small employee staff with an average of less than four full-time equivalent employees.' On average, a California B&B inn generates about $232,300 of annual revenue. By contrast, an average Newport Beach hotel/motel generates about $6 million of annual room revenue.' It should be noted that B&B inns average eight guest rooms throughout California (Table 10). In contrast, Newport Beach hotels average 186 guest rooms. Clearly, a B&B establishment represents a smaller scale operation than even a budget/economy motel, and one that generates higher revenue per room on average. OCCUPANCY AND REVENUE The annual occupancy rate of California B&B establishments averages about 44 percent, which is well below the typical break even benchmark for hotel and motel developments. However, the average daily room rate for a B&B is about $164. In Orange County, the range of posted room rates averages between $120 and $450, while the Doryman's Inn advertises room rates that range between $150 and $250 for the fall season (and higher in the summer)." This means that the room rates in Orange County and 7 Professional Association of Innkeepers International (PAII), Indaspy Stu y of0peratiau , Marketing, aad Fivanas— Ca#fonda Repaa; 2002 8 California average is 6.3 employees working 145-total hours per week. 9 Calculated from PAII and Smith Travel Research occupancy and room rate data. to The room rate range reflects a weighted average of the low and high room rate range for all of the B&B facilities in Orange County. It does not reflect discount programs or the seasonality of the rate ranges. Applied Development Economics 78 Newport Beach are well within the normal room rates across the state. TABLE 10 California Bed & Breakfast Inns Summary Of Statistical Data OCCUPANCYTREND Occupancy (California) 44% Room Rate (Califomia) 164 SITE CHARACTERISTICS Average Number of Rooms Per Facility 8 (California) Average B8d3 Lot Size (Acres) 6.5 Average B&B Floor Area (Sq,Ft.) 7,200 Inns Occupying Less than One Acre 58% Inns Originally Built as B&B Facilities 18% OWNERSHIP INVOLVEMENT Inn Owners Living On Premises 68% Inn Owners Living Within One Mile 12% Average Weekly Hours Worked by 78 Owners Source: ADE, data from Professional Association of Innkeepers International, Industry Study- 2002 California Report SITE CHARACTERISTICS In California, an average B&B is 6.5 acres with 7,200 square feet of total building space to accommodate eight guest rooms, common areas, and owner's residences." However, it should be noted that 58 percent of B&Bs sit on parcels of less than one acre, and only 18 percent of the B&B buildings were originally built as B&Bs. This illustrates the wide range of characteristics for B8cBs given that many of them are located on large rural estates, and most of them represent reuse of an existing building not originally constructed for guest lodging. GENERAL POTENTIAL FOR NEW BED & BREAKFAST INNS The B&B option is an especially attractive and appropriate option for Newport Beach because it is ti PAII. Applied Development Economics 19 currently a significantly underrepresented lodging segment. Newport Beach has focused its lodging market on large-scale resort developments, yet the B&B market represents a comparable high end lodging use that adds another option for upscale overnight visitors. In addition, because B&B inns typically do not require large scale development, they are more compatible that other types of lodging with sensitive coastal areas such as Balboa Village, Balboa Island, or Corona del Mar. Depending on the layout, existing residences can be potentially converted or renovated into B&B lodging. However, a more potent opportunity may be in small scale commercial -type buildings such as in Balboa Village, where the facility can be integrated with ground floor retail shops and other forms of mixed use buildings and developments. This could provide a very attractive visitor experience while maintaining a small scale, low profile envelope for the lodging facilities. TRAVELPARKS Travel parks are different from other types of lodging in that they generally cater to the recreational vehicle (IM traveler and campers, and as such, they do not typically offer rooms and related amenities. However, they often offer a wide range of outdoor recreation opportunities, and some travel parks provide meeting facilities, business services, and retail stores on the premises. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS Travel parks differ from other forms of lodging in that they often provide long-term occupancies. These long-term occupancies range from seasonal travelers who follow the warm weather during winter months, to local residents who use travel parks in the same way as more permanent mobile home parks." Some 12It should be noted that the City does not receive TOT tax on stays that are longer than 30 days. Applied Development Economics 20 travel parks serve as destinations in their own right, with outdoor recreation and natural site amenities, while others are mainly stopovers for long-distance travelers. LOCAL SETTING Newport Beach has one travel park, the Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort" The park has 394 spaces with full utility hookups. The park is located on a 100- acre site with a private beach fronting the Back Bay. The site also has 12 cottages and has a full complement of recreational facilities, as well as meeting rooms, on -site concessions, and a restaurant. OCCUPANCY AND REVENUE Throughout California, the average occupancy rate for travel parks is 62 percent, with an average daily revenue of $32 (Table 11)." TABLE 11 Travel Park Monthly And Annual Occupancy Trends California, 2003 Occupancy January 57.2% February 58.4% Mardi 57.2% April 56.2% May 58.3% June 62.3% July 73.7% August 74.4% September 60.2% October 62.5% November 59.9% December 56.5% 2003 Average 61.5% Average Daily Rate $32 Source. ADB, data from California Travel Parks Association 13 Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau. 14 California Travel Parks Association (CTPA). Applied Development Economics 27 The Newport Dunes, however, charges rates that are more than double this level, even during the winter season. This is somewhat lower than the average daily room revenue for hotels and motels, and the posted rack rates for B&B establishments. GENERAL POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL PARKS Aside from providing utility hookups, the level of investment needed to maintain and operate a travel park is generally lower than with other forms of lodging. For example, a travel park might not require additional construction of permanent buildings. However, Newport Dunes serves the market well because it fronts along a public beach and offers a wide array of activities beyond just utility hookups and space for RVs. While; there may be some expansion potential for this facility, the amount of land required and the generally lower overnight rates for travel parks may make it difficult for such a development to be replicated elsewhere in the community. Applied Development Economics 22 4. TOURISM AND LODGING IMPACTS This section summarizes key economic and traffic issues associated with tourism and lodging. FISCAL IMPACT From an economic standpoint, visitors bring substantial income to Newport Beach, as described above. Retail and lodging spending alone generated about $4.8 million in sales taxes and $8.3 million in Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) for the City budget in 2001, about 13 percent of total City revenues. Visitors generate other revenues as well, including indirect business license and property taxes, revenues from use of public property, and others. The Fiscal Impact Report prepared for the General Plan update analyzed the comprehensive revenues and cost impact on local government by visitors to Newport Beach (ADE, Inc. Jan.2004). Overall visitors generate about $21.6 million per year in revenues against $16.7 million in service costs. The service costs include $4.9 million in police services, $2.7 million for beach lifeguards included in the fire department budget, as well as other emergency medical calls made by the fire department. The net positive fiscal impact of visitor business activity in Newport Beach, then, is about $4.9 million per year, not counting the net fiscal benefit of the marine and boating industry. These are revenues that contribute toward City services provided to residents and businesses in the community. Applied Development Economics 23 TRAFFIC IMPACTS The effect of tourism on traffic conditions in the City of Newport Beach is evident in the seasonal variation of traffic. The peak traffic on key roadways that provide access to the primary visitor destination (the beaches) occurs during the peak season for tourism cited in subsequent sections of this paper. Peak season daily traffic volumes were collected for select locations (primarily in coastal areas) within the City of Newport Beach. Daily traffic volume counts were collected over a one week period in August of 2003 for each selected roadway segment. This time period historically reflects the peak of the (summer) peak. These volumes are therefore higher than the volumes experienced during the earlier or later parts of the summer season. For each roadway segment selected for summertime counts, the summertime typical weekday average (Tuesday through Thursday) volume was compared to the shoulder season count volume at the same location. Table 12 contains the results of this analysis. The only decrease in peak season volume from shoulder season conditions occurs on MacArthur Boulevard north of San Joaquin Hills Road. Shoulder season data for this location was collected in early November of 2001. All other segments increase for summer conditions by at least 1.3% and as much as 58.02%. The only locations with volume increases of more than 25 percent are on Newport Boulevard south of Coast Highway and Balboa Boulevard east of 20th Street on the Peninsula. The increases at these two locations both exceed 50%. Review of the data clearly indicates that Newport Boulevard is the most heavily impacted access route to the beach for summertime traffic. Jamboree Road and MacArthur Boulevard appear to be the least affected routes, with increases in traffic of between 5 and 10 percent. Newport Coast Drive experiences a higher percentage increase in summertime traffic, but Applied Development Economics 24 TABLE 12 Summer Time Average ADT Comparison Summertime Road Name Road Segment Traffic Change SuperlorAv. n/o Coast Hw. 21.49% Newport BI. s/o Coast Hw. 54.34% Jamboree Rd. n/o Coast Hw. 1.30% MacArthur St. n/o San Joaquin Hllls Rd. -24.17% MacArthur St. n/o Coast Hw. 6.63% NewportCoast Dr. n/o Coast Hw. 22.70% Balboa St. s/o Coast Hw. 9.80% Coast Hw. a/c Dover Dr. 8.020/0 Coast Hw. e/o Newport Coast Dr 14.61% Coast Hw. e/o Santa Ana River 3.60% Balboa St. e/o 20th St. 58.02% TOTAL 10,500/0 n/o = north of, etc. the magnitude of the increase (approximately 3,400 vehicles per day) is very similar to the increase on MacArthur Boulevard north of Coast Highway. The traffic increases along Coast Highway itself are also less than the increases on routes leading to the beach, suggesting that people are primarily oriented towards traveling to the beach/coast, rather than along it. For one special case (Newport Boulevard in front of City Hall), daily traffic volume data was collected every day for three weeks. Daily volumes range from approximately 35,000 to 50,000 vehicles per day with definite peaking trends on weekend days. Table 13 provides analysis of daily traffic volume patterns over the three weeks collected on Newport Boulevard in front of City Hall. The average summer mid -week weekday volume is approximately 40,600 vehicles perday (vpd). The Monday summer time volume is very near this same volume, but traffic is more evenly spread throughout the day. Saturday has the highest average volume with 48,144 vpd. The average Friday summer time Applied Development Economics 25 volume (45,732 vpd) is approximately 2,500 vpd greater than the average Sunday summer time volume (43,292 vpd). TABLE 13 Peak Summertime Daily'Volume Variation Newport Boulevard at City Hall DAY AVERAGE Sunday 43,292 Monday 40,779 Tuesday 40,083 Wednesday 39,964 Thursday 41,775 Friday 45,732 Saturday 48,144 Average of Monday and Friday 43,256 Average Typical Weekday (Tu•Th) 40,461 Average Weekend Day 45,718 Typical Shoulder Season Weekday 36,000 Table 13 also presents the typical shoulder season weekday volume (36,000 vpd). The volumes on summer time weekdays (40,600 to 43, 250 vpd) reflect approximately a 10 to 201/6 increase over typical shoulder season weekday traffic volumes (36,000 vehicles per day). For typical shoulder season weekday traffic, it is projected that fourteen study area intersection analysis locations will experience Level of Service `E' or worse the for Currently Adopted General Plan buildout conditions. At least seven of the fourteen locations can be considered coastal locations. With the summer time weekday coastal traffic increase over shoulder season typical weekday conditions, as described, an increase in traffic congestion can be expected. Tourism traffic tends to build from mid- morning to evening and compounds congestion primarily in the PM peak period. Of the seven coastal Applied Development Economics 26 locations, four intersections are projected to -have Level of Service "E" or worse for the shoulder season, and can be expected to experience increased congestion. Another measure of the potential traffic related to encouraging tourism is the amount of traffic generated by tourist serving uses, particularly hotels. The trip generation rates for. hotels are based on the type of hotel. Table 14 summarizes the trip rates for the various types of hotels and other uses for which data is available. As shown on Table 14, resort hotels tend to generate less traffic than any other type of hotel. TABLE 14 Trip Rates AM PM PEAK PEAK HOTELTYPE UNITS HOUR HOUR DAILY Hotel (General) Rooms 0.56 0.58 8.17 All Suites Hotel Occupied Rooms 0.48 0.55 6.24 Business Hotel Occupied Rooms 0.68 0.62 7.27 Motel Occupied Rooms 0.64 0.58 9.11 Resort Hotel Occupied Rooms 0.37 0.49 N/A Single Family Residential Dwelling Units 0.75 1.01 9.57 Commercial Thousand Square Feet 1.03 3.75 42.94 Office (100 tsf rate) Thousand Square Feet 1.88. _ _1.90 13.34 Source: Urban Crossroads ISSUES TO CONSIDER RELATIVE TO SEASONAL RENTALS Vacation rentals generate substantial TOT revenues as well as property taxes and other revenues. In 2001, total City revenues from these units were estimated at about $1.7 million (ADE 2004). There are also costs for City services such as police and fire protection, among others. Higher concentrations of seasonal rentals generally occur in areas with lower owner Applied Development Economics 27 occupancy rates. While these rentals do provide an additional alternative for visitors to consider when visiting Newport Beach during the summer months, there are some implications the presence of seasonal rentals creates not common in other residential areas. One is the number of people occupying seasonal rentals can be quite high, resulting in parking problems. There can also be increased noise complaints coming from gatherings and parties, resulting in higher police and code enforcement actions in the area. There can also be issues related to property maintenance. These factors can result in a neighborhood being less desirable for owner occupancy, which is an established City goal in the beach -oriented residential areas. Applied Development Economics 28 5. CONCLUSION: FURTHER QUESTIONS This paper is intended to provide background information to facilitate further discussion of appropriate policies related to tourism and hotel development in Newport Beach. The City may be expected to see continued market interest in new lodging developments as well as other visitor -serving amenities and business projects. Clearly, this sector provides fiscal and other economic benefits to the City, while also creating traffic and demands for City services. The following questions can serve as a discussion guide for the GPAC in their consideration of this issue. 1. With the information presented here, would GPAC answer the survey questions differently than did those surveyed in 2002? 2. What is meant in the Guiding Principles by "careful" expansion of visitor -serving businesses and facilities? 3. Where, if anywhere, would new hotel development be acceptable? What kind and at what scale? 4. Should the City encourage hotel development in any area? 5. Is there a concern with vacation rentals in residential neighborhoods? 6. Should the City encourage more retail stores and restaurants to attract visitors? 7. Should the City provide more public amenities for visitors (e.g. restrooms, boating facilities)? Applied Development Economics 29 FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS AND MODEL NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN UPDATE January 2004 Prepared for the City of Newport Beach Prepared by Applied Development Economics, Inc. 2029 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94704 (510) 548-5912 1029 J Street, Suite 310, Sacramento. CA 95814 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................I APPROACHTO THE ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................2 ExistingLand Uses.......................................................................................................................3 BudgetOverview..........................................................................................................................4 BudgetAdjustments.......................................................................................................5 Revenueand Cost Calculations by Land Use...........................................................................7 MajorRevenues...............................................................................................................7 OtherRevenues.............................................................................................................12 MajorCost Categories..................................................................................................13 CapitalImprovement Program...................................................................................18 PerCapita Costs and Revenues...................................................................................19 ANALYSIS OF FISCAL IMPACTS BY LAND USE TYPE.........................................................21 CitywideSummary ......................................................................................................................21 Revenues..................................................................................................... 21 Costs........................................................................................................... 22 Hospitality and Visitor Sector...................................................................................................26 MarineIndustry...........................................................................................................................27 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF NEWPORT COAST FISCAL IMPACTS 33 Introduction............................................................................................................ 33 ProjectDescription..................................................................................................34 Fire Protection Services ................................ Police Services ............................. Summary of Fiscal Impact ....................... GENERAL PLAN BULLDOUT.................................... ..................................... 35 ................................................ 35 .......................... 36 .......................................... 41 APPENDIX Appendix A: Land Use Definitions by SIC and NAICS......................................................45 Appendix B: Distribution of Use of Property Revenues By Land Use .............................47 LIST OF TABLES 1. Land Use Descriptions..........................................................................................................................4 2.2002-03 Budget Revenues Included in Fiscal Analysis.....................................................................6 3.2002-03 Budget Expenditures Included in Fiscal Analysis..............................................................7 4. Assessed Value and Property Tax Estimates by Land Use..............................................................8 5. Sales Tax Revenues by Land Use.........................................................................................................9 6. Transient Occupancy Tax by Lodging Type....................................................................................11 7. Business License Revenue by Land Use...........................................................................................12 8. Police Department Budget 2002-2003..............................................................................................14 9. Police Department Cost Analysis......................................................................................................15 10. Analysis of Summer Peak Demand for Police Services...............................................................16 11.2002-03 CIP Expenditures Included in Fiscal Analysis...............................................................19 12. Unit Costs and Revenues..................................................................................................................20 13. Summary of Fiscal Analysis..............................................................................................................24 14. Retail Employment and Fiscal Impacts...........................................................................26 15. Fiscal Impact of Visitors to Newport Beach.................................................................................28 16. Newport Coast Development: Year 2000 and 2025.........................................................23 17. Newport Coast Impact Year 2000.................................................................................. 37 18. Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout.......................................................................... 39 19 Growth Rates, 2002 — Buildout....................................................................................... 41 20 Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout..............................................................43 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Sales Tax Revenue by Land Use Type............................................................................... 22 2. Gross Revenues by Land Use...........................................................................................22 3. Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach......................................................27 INTRODUCTION This report discusses how various land uses and business types contribute to the revenues and costs for city government. The focus of this discussion is on the existing land use mix in Newport Beach, although it also includes an analysis of the future buildout of the existing General Plan. As the General Plan update process moves forward, a similar analysis will be conducted to determine the potential fiscal impact of future land use altematives. It is important to recognize that the point of this analysis is to understand how the mix of land uses in Newport Beach contributes to the revenues needed for municipal services for both residents as well as businesses. For purposes of the General Plan, the goal of the fiscal analysis is to identify the best mix of land uses to balance the revenues generated with the cost for municipal services in the City. Therefore, the fiscal "performance" of individual land uses should be viewed from an overall citywide perspective. The report is written to provide a detailed explanation of the methodology, assumptions, and data sources used to estimate fiscal impacts for each land use. This analysis is intended to serve as a planning tool for decision makers in the General Plan update process. Based on this analysis, ADE will develop an interactive software program for the City to use in estimating fiscal impacts, not only for General Plan land uses, but also for individual development projects that may be proposed in the future. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS City government uses a variety of revenue sources to fund the operation of local services and the construction of public facilities. Some of these revenue sources are more affected by the land use mix in the City than are others. For example, property taxes and sales taxes are directly related to the type of property and the business mix in the City. On the other hand, the City's federal entitlement of Community Development Block Grant funds is affected by the population size of the City but is otherwise not a function of the land use mix in the City. Also, because Newport Beach is a Charter City (as opposed to a "General Law" city) the Newport Beach City Council has the ability to set certain tax rates and fees, such as the business license tax rate or building permit fees. However, the Council has only limited authority to set other tax rates, such as the property tax or the sales tax, or to apply additional taxes or fees, without the consent of a simple majority or a supermajority of electors responding in an election. In considering the effect of existing and future land uses on the City budget, it is important to sort out the types of revenue and costs that are most pertinent. In general, it is most important to isolate the effect of development on revenues which the City has less ability to raise, such as general taxes, than on direct charges for services which can be increased to meet rising costs as necessary. Consequently, the analysis is focused more on services funded by general tax revenues, such as the property tax and the sales tax among others, than on services funded by direct charges such as the water and sewer enterprise funds, building permit and plan check fees, or other fees charged directly to customers at City Hall. At this point, our assumption is that fees charged for specific services are adequate to cover the costs of those services. t At this stage in the process, the fiscal analysis addresses the effect of land use, including related population and business activity, on municipal operating costs and revenues. In the present report, such costs are primarily estimated on an average basis with only a brief discussion of the marginal costs to serve future development. As we move forward with a projection of the effects of potential future land uses, it 1 A more in-depth study of City operations would be necessary to verify this assumption. However, if it is not the case, it is within the authority of the City Council to adjust the fee schedules. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 2 will be important to consider the existing capacity in the city's service system and determine whether or not the incremental, or marginal, cost of serving new development is the same as the average cost of serving existing development. That analysis will likely depend to some degree on the location of the proposed new development in addition to the type of land use. This chapter begins with an overview of land uses in Newport Beach, followed by a discussion of the City budget to help clarify some of the distinctions between costs and revenues raised above. EXISTING LAND USES Newport Beach's physical setting encompasses about 25 square miles of land, of which approximately three-quarters is developed into a mix of residential (70 percent of developed land) and non-residential (30 percent of developed land) uses. The remaining one quarter of undeveloped land, including the City s coastal beaches, is primarily used for recreation and open space'. Currently, the City is estimated to have about 36,600 dwelling units. Approximately 40 percent of housing units are single-family units and 60 percent are multi -family units. The average assessed valuation for existing housing is $625,000 for single- family units ($814,000 in Newport Coast) and $431,000 for multi -family units. In 2001, the median price of "for sale" housing in Newport Beach was $718,400.3 While residential development is treated as a single land -use category for purposes of this fiscal analysis, non-residential uses were split into seven distinct categories: office, retail, light industrial, lodging, marine -related, service commercial, and institutional. Newport Beach businesses were segmented into one of these categories based on their standard industrial classification (SIC) code through an analysis of the City's business license records. Appendix A shows the detailed SIC code definitions for each category, and a general description of the business types included in each category is provided in Table 1 below. Y Nmpxt&4Ar. Current Conikkm, FuamCboi=, November 2001, p. 26. Ibid. p. 28. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 3 TABLE 1 Land Use Descriptions Land Use Category Description All retail stores (including auto dealerships) and eating and drinking places, Retail except those that are included in one of the categories below Business and professional services, financial institutions, health care services, Office etc. Construction contractors, wholesale distributors, manufacturing, Industrial transportation, public utilities, etc. Primarily includes personal services (e.g. beauty salons, dry cleaners), repair Service Commercial services, entertainment e.. movie theaters , and recreation e.. health clubs Lodging Hotels, motels, B&Bs, vacation rentals, etc. Institutional Schools, churches, social services, membership organizations, etc. Several detailed business types that would otherwise fall within one of the categories above, but which have a direct relationship with activity along the Marine Newport Beach coast. Examples include yacht building and maintenance, boat dealers and repair services, marinas, equipment manufacturers for marine vessels, sport fishing outfitters, etc. The most significant component of this category is the beaches, which attract Public most of the visitors to Newport Beach. BUDGET OVERVIEW The total budgeted expenditures according to the 2002-2003 budget for the City of Newport Beach are $158.9 million, of which $34.5 million are for Capital Improvement Projects. Estimated General Fund expenditures for the current fiscal year are $94.5 million, while revenues are estimated at $95.5 million (Table 2). The top three revenue categories — property tax ($36.8 million), sales tax ($19.8 million), and transient occupancy tax ($8.3 million) — account for nearly seventy percent of total General Fund revenues. On the expenditure side, Police ($30.6 million), Fire ($20.1 million), and Public Works ($20.3 million) account for three-quarters of all service costs (Table 3). The General Fund also includes about $4 million of appropriations for projects within the City's Capital Improvement Program (CIP), excluding rebudgets.4 In addition to the General Fund, three other major funds are of importance for the fiscal analysis. The first is the Tidelands Fund (also known as the Fide and Submerged Lands Fund'), which collects revenue from the use of public property 4 Rebudgeted funds for CIP projects appear in Table 3 as adjustments to expenditures, since the fiscal analysis is intended to match revenues from the current fiscal year with current year expenditures. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 4 that the State of California designates as "tidelands" (i.e. land once underwater or currently below the mean high tide line). The Tidelands Fund has total 2002-03 revenues of about $6.5 million and expenditures of $3 million, including CIp projects but excluding transfers to the General Fund. The Tidelands Fund provides about $3.4 million to the General Fund in 2003-03 to pay for Tidelands -qualified city services in the coastal area. The second fund is the Gas Tax, which is funded from the State based on primarily population in each city. According to State law, these funds must be accounted for separately and used exclusively for repair, construction, and maintenance of the street and highway system. Newport Beach has a total of 2002-03 Gas Tax revenues of approximately $1.5 million. Finally, the Measure M Fund is funded in part from the county sales tax for transportation programs and in part from competitive grants from the countywide pool of Measure M funds. Measure M revenues for 2002-03 are approximately $2.2 million. Of these, however, only the annual "turn back" revenues are included in the fiscal analysis as net revenues. Both the Gas Tax and Measure M funds are used exclusively for projects within the City's CIp. Budget Adjustments Some adjustments were made to the original budget figures, as shown in tables 2 and 3, in order to account for budget items that are not annually recurring. On the revenue side, these include intergovernmental grants (e.g. `competitive' Measure M funds), fees for zoning and building activities, and construction -related permits. On the cost side, the value of development —related fees and permits are deducted from the budgets of the planning and building departments? These adjustments are made for development -related costs and revenues because they typically occur at the building, planning and construction phase and do not represent an ongoing cost of government services once the buildings are completed. 5 Adjustment include the following budget accounts: Intergovernmental: 4824.4827,4858, 4862, 4893, 4896-4898; Charges for service: 5000-5004, 5007, 5023; Licenses and permits: 4610, 4612, 4614, 4616, 4618, 4622. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 5 The total estimated General Fund Budget after adjustments (i.e. net revenue) is approximately $92.3 million for 2002-03, with another $9.2 million of revenue in the Tidelands, Gas Tax, and Measure M Funds, for total revenues of $101.5 million. Adjusted General Fund Expenditures are $96.2 million, plus $5.3 million in expenditures within the other three funds included in the analysis. The overall budget figure upon which this analysis is based is approximately $101 million. TABLE 2 2002.03 Budget Revenues Included In Fiscal Analysis REVENUE ADJUSTMENTS NET BASIS General Fund Property Tax $36,880,101 $36,880,101 Sales Tax 19,841,351 19,8411,351 Transient Occupancy Tax 8,298,000 - s 8 298 060 Franchlses 2,390,000 2,390,000; Business Licenses 2,365,000 2,365,000 Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu 1,700,000 1,700,000 Charges for Service 9,515,855 1,048,300 _ 8,467,5551 Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties _ 3,125,250 3,125,250 LicenseslPermits 1,819,860 1,446,200 373,660 Use of,Property 5,284,288s�" — �� 5,284,288 I Revenue_ 175,000 555,4351 _Other Interest Income _73_0,435 1,500,000 1,500,000 General Fund Subtotal 95,440,267 3,095,674 92,344,593 - — -�-- --i Charges for Service 33,500 33,500 Use of Money and Property 5,359,492 5,359,492 State Gas Tax Fund— 1,457,000 1>457,000 jMeasure M,Fund Subtotal Other Funds 10,209,072 1,110,580 8,047,492 Source: ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, Fisnd3rar2002.03 Budget Detail. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 6 TABLE 3 2002.03 Budget Expenditures Included In Fiscal Analysis NET General Government $9,368,986 $9,368,986 Police 30,132,466 30,132,466 .......... _.. _Public Works a 20,389z515 ____ _ 20,389;515 Community Development 4,747,238 2,494,500 2,252,738 Community Services 8,293,665 8,293,665 CIP • Streets 2,366,000 1,061,000 1,309,i)00; Other ClP Pro Ct 4,766,265 1,873,115 2 893,150; _ General Fund Subtotal 101,596,546 8,127,868 96,167,931 TIDELANDS FUND 1,466,442 TAX FUND Subtotal Other Funds 7,436,793 2,122,699 Source: ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, Fixd)wr2002.03 Bt*Derail. [a] Includes public Works, General Services andUnlities. REVENUE AND COST CALCULATIONS BY LAND USE Major Revenues The major revenue categories of property tax, sales tax, transient occupancy tax (TOT) and business license tax were allocated among the various land uses based on actual 2001 data provided by the City Revenue Division. Each of these revenues and how they were distributed across land uses is described below. Property Tax In general, the City receives about 17 cents of every property tax dollar paid by property owners within the city's boundaries. The distribution of property tax revenue across the various land uses was based on an analysis of assessed valuation (AV) data obtained from the Orange County Assessor. This data set includes over 29,000 records with detailed parcel information such as owner name and address, site address, valuation, and a set of land use codes used by the Orange County Assessor. The analysis involved sorting the data by land use and, in some cases, site address in order to calculate the total assessed valuation by land use and then the local share of APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 7 the property tax revenue. 6 The results of this analysis are summarized in the table below: TABLE 4 Assessed Valuation And Property Tax Estimates By Land Use Assessed Property Tax 1% of Land Use Category g ry Valuation Estimate Total (millions) (millions) Residential 15,740 29.31 79.5% Office 1,697 3.16 8.6% Service Commercial 761'- 1.42 3.8go { Light Industrial 690_ Marine Industry 282 0.52 1.4% Lodging 236 0.44 n 1.2% _ Institutional_ 206 038 1:0% Retail 192 0.36 1.0% 1 Total 19,803 36.88 _ 100% Source: ADE, Inc, based on data provided by the City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. Significantly, residential properties — which account for about 70 percent of developed )and in Newport Beach - generate nearly eighty percent of the property tax for the City. At under 10 percent of property tax revenue, office development is a distant second. Sales Tax The city receives one cent of every dollar spent within the city's boundaries on taxable products. Taxable transactions occur not only at retail stores, but at a wide variety of commercial locations throughout the city. For example, many taxable business -to -business transactions, in which products are sold to end users rather than to entities with resale permits, occur at office and light industrial locations. Examples of non -retail businesses that generate sales tax revenue in Newport Beach include parts manufacturers for marine vessels, food processing equipment distributors, landscaping product wholesalers, medical equipment suppliers, and software developers. In addition, many service commercial businesses generate sales tax by carrying products related to their service, such as beauty salons that sell shampoos and cosmetics. This category also includes auto rental firms. Large hotels also have 6 For properties within Newport Beach, the City receives approximately 17 percent of the one percent property tax levy. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 8 ancillary retail shops and food services that generate sales tax revenue. The marine category includes a number of sales tax generating businesses that are both retail and industrial in nature, including sales of new and used boats, marine fuels, and manufacturing and sales of boat parts. Finally, sales tax revenue that is attributed to the residential category is the result of taxable sales that occur at home -based businesses in Newport Beach! The sales tax revenue that accrues to the city was distributed across the various land uses through an analysis of 2001 sales tax data provided by the Revenue Division! TABLE 5 Sales Tax Revenue By Land Use Estimated Sales % of Land Use Category Tax Revenue Total (1,000s) Retail 13,922,674 70.2% Office 1,938,437 9.8% _ Commerclai _ z: 1,438,043 7.2% 1Service Marine Industry Light Industrial 892,789 4.5% Lodging 3.0% t Residential �� _594,391 _� 76,329—'0.4°/0 9lnstitutional 0 0.0% Total 19,841,351 100% Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by the City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. Table 5 displays the results of the analysis of this important revenue source. Over 70 percent of Newport Beach's sales tax revenue is derived from retail establishments, and nearly 10 percent are from taxable transactions at office -based businesses. The remaining 20 percent is divided into the other categories as shown. 7 Sales taxes are distributed to cities based on the location of the point of sale, not the residency of the buyer. Thus, Newport Beach gets a portion of all the sales generated by Fashion Island and other retail businesses in the City, whether or not the customers are Newport Beach residents. Conversely, if residents shop outside the City, Newport Beach receives none of that sales tax. For this reason, residential uses generate sales tax revenue indirectly, through resident spending at Newport Beach businesses, as well as directly, through taxable sales at home -based businesses. 9 Annual audit report of Newport Beach sales tax prepared by NIBIA. All Newport Beach businesses that generate sales tax are assigned a State Board of Equalization (BOE) business code, which was the primary basis for the sales tax analysis. The data was cross-referenced with the other primary data sourced used in the fiscal analysis for consistency. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 9 It is important to note that the figures in Table 5 reflect the direct impact of each type of business, and not the indirect impact of their employees. For example, in the office category, the figures include only the actual sales taxes generated by office - based businesses. In addition, office employees spend money at retail establishments, which could be considered an indirect benefit of office development in Newport Beach. However, the analysis treats this revenue as the direct impact of the retail businesses, not the office businesses. Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) The TOT, also known as the Hotel Bed Tax, accrues to the City at the rate of 9 percent of room charges (with an additional 1 percent going to the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau). The City separates TOT into two land use categories: lodging and residential. Newport Beach has several major hotels such as the Four Seasons and the Hyatt Newporter, as well as numerous smaller inns and motels. Altogether, these lodging facilities provide a total of about 2,600 guestrooms. In addition, there are approximately 625 seasonal vacation rental properties that also generate TOT if they are rented for less than a month at a time. s A detailed analysis of the City's 2001 TOT revenue is shown in Table 6 below. For the current 2002-03 budget year, the City's is expecting this revenue source to decline somewhat and has projected revenues of about $7.45 million in TOT from hotels and motels/inns, plus $840,000 from vacation rentals. Business Licenses Total annual business license revenue is approximately $2.4 million according to the 2002-03 budget. Nearly half the business license revenues are derived from residential -based businesses and out of town businesses.10 Business license revenue from home -based businesses is about $358,000 (15 percent of the total), while out- of-town businesses generate about $685,000 (29 percent). Revenues from out-of- town businesses and in -town residential businesses are of particular benefit to the 9 Jmportantly, "timeshare" units, many of which already exist or are planned for development in the Newport Coast area, are not subject to TOT unless the timeshare operator rents the unit(s) on a nightly basis. tU "Out of town" businesses are those that provide services in Newport Beach but have no permanent physical or mailing address in the City APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 10 City because such businesses do not carry the same service costs that are associated with commercial locations within the City. The total amount of business license tax revenue from all commercial land uses within Newport Beach is approximately $1.7 million. These revenues were distributed among the various land uses based on SIC code. The full results of the analysis of the City's business license tax revenues are displayed in Table 7 below. TABLE 6 2001 Transient Occupancy Tax By Lodging Type Name Address Numberof 2001TOT Rooms Amount Newport Classic Inn 2300 Coast Hwy W 50 Newport Beach Inn/Best Western 6208 Coast Hwy W 46 _ �..-. Newport Channel Inn 6030'W Coast Hwy _a_______ _ 30 -_- - _ _--J Bay Shores Inn 1800 Balboa Blvd 24 Little Inn by the Bay 2627 Newport Blvd. 18 TF PortZn Beac Hotel _ 2306 Ocean Fmnt Way r 15 [Dotyman's Oceanfront Inn 2102 Ocean Front West -- ,10.._„- Marriott Su tes 500 Bayview Circle 250 Balboa Bay Club 1221 W Coast Hwy av� _m 123 _ Major Hotels Marriott Hotel & Tennis 900 Newport Center Dr. 570 The Sutton Place 4500 Macarthur Blvd. 435 1H- -- • -- -�--- iHyatiNewporter �-11 __._ ._ -- - - 1107JamboreeR�. _ - 5----- 405 RadissonHotel 4545MacatthnrBlyd.._ _ 335_ —w_w____ Four Seasons 690 Newport Center 295 Subtotal 2,040 $ 6,588,259 Vacation Rentals 625 Units $958,771 Grand Total 2,640 rooms; $9,333,450 625 vac. rentals Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided bythe City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 11 TABLE 7 Business License Revenue By Land Use No. of Business Land Use Category Active License Tax % of Total Businesses Revenue Office 4,055 742,200 30.9% Retail 1,145 240,299 10.0% FService Commercial 953 210,064 8.7%� �,Llghtlndustrial� 630512668_ 4.7% Marine Industry 100 26,993 1.1% Institutional 85 18,417 0.8% Lod IgLod ng 39 10,595 0.49% Subtotal�„._. A .6%,1 Residen_tial•based 3,388 357,507 14.9% Out-of-town 4,174 684,641 28.5% i Total 14,607 $2.4 Million _ 100% 1 Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by the City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. Other Revenues All of the other recurring general fund revenues included in Table 13 were calculated based on employment and population factors, with the following exceptions: ❑ Franchise fees were estimated on a per capita basis (not including visitors, however), with the additional assumption that 60 percent of these revenues are generated by business uses and the remainder by residents." This split reflects the typical distribution of utility usage for a city like Newport Beach. ❑ Revenues categorized under "Use of Money or Property" in both the General Fund and the Tidelands Fund were categorized based on the nature of the activity associated with the revenue. A table summarizing each of these revenues is provided in Appendix B. City parking lot revenues were allocated to both public and commercial land uses based on the business types located in the 11 Franchise fees are paid to the city by private companies that have contracts with the City to provide services such as gas, electricity, cable W and solid waste disposal. The company that provides towing services for the Police Department also pays a franchise fee; however, these fees are included in the Lkwses andPemrits category. The 60/40 split between non-residential and residential uses is based on analysis of franchise revenues in other California communities in lieu of specific data pertaining to Newport Beach. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 12 vicinity of each lot, as well as their proximity to visitor -serving public areas such as the beaches. ❑ The Marine category also included an estimate of property tax revenue derived from boats that are moored in Newport Beach marinas. According to data provided by the Revenue Division, there are 3,535 boats from which the City currently receives unsecured property tax revenue. The total assessed valuation of these vessels is approximately $133 million. ❑ Interest income was estimated at a rate of 1.6% of all other revenues, based on the ratio of total interest income to all other revenues for the current budget year. Major Cost Categories In general, costs were calculated on a per capita basis as described in the next section, with the following exceptions or refinements: General Government The General Government category, with a total budget amount of approximately $9.4 million, was allocated among the various land uses in proportion to each land' use's share of all other expenditures. The underlying assumption of this approach is that general government services are essentially administrative overhead and a direct function of the costs of services provided by the City's various departments. Fire and Lifeguards Eighty percent of Fire Department costs (less the $2.7 million cost for lifeguards, which was wholly ascribed to public uses) were distributed on a per -capita basis; the remaining 20 percent of fire costs were allocated among the various land uses in proportion to their assessed valuation. This approach is based on information provided by the NBFD that indicates that, aside from the lifeguarding function, 80 percent of their activity is associated with responding to EMS calls and 20 percent is for fire fighting and prevention. Police The Police Department is organized into four divisions, in addition to the office of the Chief of Police: Traffic, Patrol, Detective and Support Services (Table 8). In order to estimate the distribution of police activities by land use category, we reviewed police records on the types of services provided both citywide and by APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE reporting district. Most of the Police Department reporting districts contain a mix of land uses. Therefore, in order to isolate the services provided to specific types of development, it was necessary to use a modified per -capita approach. Table 9 summarizes this analysis. TABLE 8 Police Department Budget 2003.2003 Division Budget Police Chief $1,387,010 Traffic Division $3,769,036 Patrol Division $12,106,233 Detective Division $5,295,066 Support Services $7,582,531 Total $30,139,876 Source: ADE, Inc, based on City of Newport Beach, Fival yrar2002.03 Brulgt LWaiL In the left hand column of Table 9, the resident population, the average visitor population, and the number of employees by business type are presented. The employment figures are further allocated to visitor -serving and non -visitor serving business activity. The total average "daytime population" in Newport Beach is 151,732, including all of these resident, visitor and worker groups.12 Of the total daytime population, residents comprise about 50 percent, visitors (on average) are 13 percent, workers serving visitors are four percent and the remaining workers are 33 percent. An important consideration in Newport Beach is the extent to which police services are related to visitor activity and visitor -serving businesses. As shown in Table 9, visitors represent 13 percent of the daytime population on an average basis, but visitorship peaks heavily in the stammer months. The change in demand for police services during the summer months may be expected to indicate the effect of visitors on police services overall. Table 10 shows five main types of police activity. calls for service, citations, crimes, arrests, and traffic accidents. The table shows the monthly average for each type of activity for the September to May (non peak) period and the June to August (peak) period. In every case, there is a measurable peak during the summer months. For example, calls for service are 28 percent higher during the 12 In actuality, some Newport Beach residents commute out of the city to work, but for the purposes of standard fiscal impact methodology, the term "daytime" population includes all residents. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 14 summer months while other citations are more than doubled. This peak effect, when measured against the annual service load, represents about 7 percent of total police activity (and more than 30% of non -vehicle code citations)." TABLE 9 Police Department Cost Analysis Per Capita Per Cap Traffic Patrol Detective Land Use Factors Share Division Division Division Other Total Percent Residential Pop. 75,662 48.4% $1,753,58 $5,939,54 $2,445,04 $4,295,384$14,433,55 47.9% Visitors 19,671 12.6% 216,564 995,136 580,341 759,260 2,551,30 8.5% Employees Visitor Serving 5,45 3.5% 161,216 823,471 480,205 620,652 2,085,54 6.9% Retail 3,31 2.1% 719,180 419,410 523,930 1,760,53 5.8% Lodging 2,13 1.4% _98,013 63,203� 104,291 60,795 96,723 325,012 1.1% Non-Vlsitor Serving 55,423 35.5% -1637,63 4,348,09 1,789,48 _3,294.235 11,CLk 0_, . , 36.7%1 Office 30,802 19.7% 910,134 1,631,29 671,252 1,361,164 4,573,84 15.2% Retail 7,74_ 5.0% 228,698 1,822,77 750,352 1,187,088 3,988,90 13.2% �5.6°/4 industrial 11,332 7.3°k 334,837 600,151 246,953 500,776 1,682,71 Service Commercial _ 3,03T 1.9% 89096_ 160.948 _ 66227 134296 451,267 _ 1.5% Marine 1,15 0.7% 34,039 61,011 25,105 50,908 171,063 0.6% Institutional 1,35 40,126 71,921rR29,594 60,011 201,652_ 0.7% %ial Emp-.._ loyment 60,87 _0.9%0 _ 39.0% 1,798;84 �5,171,56 2,269,68 3,914,887 13,154,99 7 156,212�100.0"/0 $3,769,03$12,106,23 $5,295,06_ $8,969,541$30,139,87 -_ 100_0% Total Visitor -Serving 25,127 16.1% $377,78 $1,818,60 $1,060,54 $1,379,912 $4,636,84 15.4% Residential 46.5% 49.1% 46.2% 47.9% 47.9% 'Visitor -Serving 10.00/0 15.0% 20.0% 15.4% _ 15.4% Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0% 100.0 Source: Applied Development Economics, Inc. Although not nearly in similar numbers, many visitors do come to Newport Beach during off-peak seasons. Business travelers alone represent 21 percent of total visitors to the city. Assuming their trips are more evenly distributed throughout the year, it is likely that visitors represent at least 6-8 percent of the average daytime population during non -peak months. Thus, the impact of visitors appears to represent about 13-15 percent of total police services." This is about the same as the 13 This calculation measures the additional incremental service load during the three summer months against what the service load would be for 12 months if there were no peak. 14 With the exception of lifeguards, neither the Police Department nor the Fire Department add staff during summer months to handle peak service demands. Existing staff are redistributed to activities APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 15 per capita share that visitors, plus visitor -serving employment, represent of the daytime population. TABLE 10 Analysis Of Summer Peak Demand For Police Services Monthly Averages Calls for Veh. Code Other Total Part 1 and Part Total Time Period Service Citations Citations Citations 2 Crimes la] Arrests Accidents Sep -May 4,25 1,59 278 5,61 538 306 117 Jun -Aug 5,43 1,85 674 7,20 739 431 150 Peak Effect 27.8% 16.3% 142.3% 28.4% 37.4% 40.7% 28.5% Peak as Percent of Annual 6.9% 4.1% 31.4% 7.1% 9.3% 10.4% 7.2% Source: ADE, Inc, based on data provided by Newport Beach Police Department. fa] As defined by the FBI, Part 1 crimes are the 8 most serious crimes (homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny -theft, auto theft, and arson). Part 2 crimes are all other lesser offenses such as forgery, fraud, embezzlement' vandalism, prostitution, etc. The following sections address the cost estimates for each division. Traffic Division: The Traffic Division includes the parking enforcement, animal control, accident investigations and other moving vehicle violations. (The Patrol Division also issues vehicle code citations and responds to traffic related incidents). Based on the distribution of labor costs for parking enforcement, this function is estimated to require 21 percent of the Traffic Division budget. Parking enforcement records indicate that about 53 percent of this activity occurs in residential neighborhoods and 47 percent in commercial areas, and the parking enforcement costs have been attributed in this analysis accordingly. (Parking meter revenue is attributed solely to business and public uses since few meters exist in residential neighborhoods). All animal control costs are attributed to residential land uses, about 11 percent of the Division budget. The remaining budget for the Traffic Division is distributed on the basis of estimated traffic generation in the City. Based on the land use mix in the City and the trip generation rates used in the General Plan Update traffic model, it is estimated that approximately 36 percent of all vehicle trips in the City are generated by that require more attention during the summer. Therefore, the annual averages are suitable indicators of cost impacts on these departments. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 16 residential uses, and 64 percent by business and public land uses.15 This is clearly an approximate split. There is some overlap between trips from residents to retail stores and employment centers and these figures do not account for through -traffic that is unrelated to land use in Newport Beach. However, the 36/64 percent split provides a reasonable basis for allocating the $2.56 million in non -parking and animal control enforcement costs for the Traffic Division. In the calculations, visitors were limited to 10 percent of total cost for this division, to reflect the lower effect on vehicle citations, as shown in Table 10. Patrol Division: This is the largest division and is responsible for maintaining beat patrols as well as responding to traffic incidents, enforcing traffic laws and responding to most other incidents or calls for service. The costs for this division have generally been allocated on a straight per capita basis, with one exception. Retail businesses on average tend to generate more police activity than do other kinds of businesses. Certain kinds of retail, such as restaurants and bars, generate a disproportionate amount of alcohol -related incidents. Retail shopping centers create more opportunity for burglary and theft. The effect of this activity can be seen in comparing the crime statistics for the Newport Center area and the Airport area. Both areas have approximately the same total employment, but the Newport Center area has three times as many retail employees and a corresponding 20 percent reduction in other kinds of jobs. Yet the Newport Center area registers twice as many crimes and three times as many arrests as does the Airport Area. On a per - employee basis, the disparity between retail and other kinds of business activity is even greater. Therefore, in the analysis in Table 9, retail businesses are given a weighting of three times the per capita cost compared to other businesses. Overall, 49 percent of the cost of the division activities is distributed to residences, 15 percent to visitor -serving uses and 36 percent to other business and public uses. Looking at the land area distribution in the City, 52 percent of the area is devoted to residential uses, with 22 percent in business uses and 26 percent in open space. The per capita allocation fairly well represents the geographic coverage of the patrol function of this division. Detective Division: This division is primarily responsible for investigating non - traffic related crimes that occur in the City and also performs a number of crime 15 Trip generation rates were provided by Urban Crossroads, Inc., per a City of Newport Beach study. ADE prepared the estimates of the distribution of total trips. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 17 prevention and proactive criminal pursuit activities. In terms of the activities shown in Table 10, this division is most involved with investigation of the Part 1 and Part 2 crimes, as well as following up on arrests. Both of these activities show substantial increases during the summer peak months. Based on the peak effect figures in Table 10 and the additional visitor activity during non -peak months, 20 percent of the.costs for this division have been allocated to visitor -serving uses, 46 percent to residences and 34 percent to other businesses. As with the Patrol Division costs, retail businesses are assigned a weighting of three compared to other businesses in the per capita cost calculations. Support Activities: The office of the Police Chief includes a number of functions such as community relations, legal affairs and crime prevention. The Support Services Division includes communications, records, fleet maintenance, personnel and a variety of other functions. All of these services and activities represent about 30 percent of the total Police Department budget, or 42.4 percent above the budgets of the other three divisions. The allocation of costs for this division has been treated as an overhead function based on the distribution of costs for the other divisions. Summary: As shown in Table 9, the total police cost allocation by land use works out to about 47 percent for residential, nearly 25 percent for visitor serving uses and less than one-third for other business uses. Capital Improvement Program In addition to providing services, the City also incurs annual `capital outlay' costs associated with the provision of public improvements, on -going projects, and maintenance programs. The Capital Improvement Program (CIP) serves as a plan for meeting the City's long-term capital needs as well as ongoing maintenance activities. Projects in the CIP include the construction, repair, and maintenance of arterial highways and local streets; storm drains; bay and beach improvements; park and facility improvements; water and wastewater system improvements; and planning programs. The FY 2002-03 CIP, including rebudgets of revenue from prior years, totals $34.5 million and consists of over 150 projects.16 Funding for these projects comes from a variety of sources, including the General Fund, enterprise funds, grant programs such as CDBG, State subventions, etc. 15 City of Newport Beach Capital Improvement Program, pg. I-17. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 16 As shown in Table I l below, the four funds that are included in the fiscal analysis contribute a total of approximately $13 million to the 2002-03 CIP. However, since the fiscal analysis is intended to match revenues from the current fiscal year with current year's costs (and then distribute these costs and revenues by land use), funds that were rebudgeted from 2001-02 have been subtracted from the CEP appropriations as shown, resulting in approximately $7.9 million in net CIP expenditures for the current fiscal year. TABLE 11 2002.03 CIP Expenditures Included In Fiscal Analysis Total CIP Rebudget Net Appropriation Amount Appropriation General Fund - Streets 2,366,000 1,061,000 1,305,000 General Fund - Other 4,766,265 1,873,115 2,893,150 Tidelands Fund 1,466,442 400,785 1,065,657 Gas Tax Fund 2,274,721 716,334 1,558,387 Measure M Fund 2,061,605 1,005,580 1,056,025 Total 12,935,033 5,056,814 7,878,219 Source: ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, Fisad Year 2002-03 CapId h4=uW9AW= These CIP expenditures that relate directly to traffic/circulation improvements - including the street projects under the general fund and all of the Gas Tax and Measure M projects - were distributed across the various land uses on the basis of trip generation data cited in the discussion above regarding police costs for the Traffic Division. For the Tidelands Fund, those CIP expenditures that related directly to beach and other public uses (e.g. lifeguard towers replacement or pier repair) were attributed to the `public' category, while costs relating directly to boating activity (e.g. Balboa Yacht Basin Facilities) were attributed to the Marine' category. The remaining Tidelands Fund CIP expenditures, as well as CIP spending under the General Fund that does not relate to traffic/circulation, was distributed across land uses on a per capita basis, as described in the discussion below. Per Capita Costs And Revenues In cases where specific information about the land use origin of certain revenues or costs could not be determined, we developed unit cost and revenue factors to apply to each land use. Unless otherwise indicated, the per capita factors shown in Table 12 are based on the three population segments which generate revenues (via spending on goods and services, payment of fees and fines, etc.) while simultaneously exerting demand for City services: residents, employees, and visitors. As described above in the police cost analysis, these groups comprise a total APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 19 constituency of approximately 156,000 persons. This estimate is based on the current population of approximately 76,000, plus a citywide employment estimate of 60,879, and an average of 19,671 daily visitors to Newport Beach." TABLE 12 Unit Costs And Revenues UNIT REVENUES Per Capita UNIT COSTS Per Capita Other Intergovernmental Charges for Service Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures Licenses and Permits Other Revenue Gas Tax Fund* Measure M Fund* Source: ADE, Inc. *Based on residential population only. $22.47 Public Works $59.98 $10.01 Community Development $14.42 $54.21 Community Services* $109.61 $20.01 $2.39 $3.56 $19.26 17 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Newport Beach had a population of 70,032 in 2000. The Resource Allocation Plan indicates a January 1, 2002 population of 75,662, which includes newly annexed Newport Coast and is the figure used in this analysis. The employment figures come from the California Employment Development Department (EDD), adjusted to include an estimate of self-employment (excluding home -based businesses) . The average daily visitors is based on estimates obtained from a 2001 study prepared for the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau, which indicates that there are 7.2 million visitors to Newport Beach annually. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 20 ANALYSIS OF FISCAL IMPACTS BY LAND USE TYPE CITYWIDE SUMMARY Based on the current land use mix in the city of Newport Beach as described above, Table 13 shows the full results of the fiscal impact analysis, which are summarized below. This analysis represents the average, existing cost of services for existing land uses. The incremental cost to serve new development in Newport Beach may be different. Revenues ❑ Xesidential land uses generate about 80 percent of property tax revenues. ❑ Seventy percent of sales taxes, the second largest city revenue, are generated by retail uses. Table 14 provides a detailed summary of the fiscal impacts of the retail category. Eating and drinking places (i.e. restaurants) generate the most sales tax revenue (over $3 million per year) among the various retail categories shown in Table 14. However, due primarily to the high employment associated with restaurants and the number of police incidents associated with some of these establishments, the net fiscal impact of eating and drinking places is slightly negative. Besides restaurants, the top retail categories in terms of the sales tax revenue produced are automobile dealerships, grocery stores, and department stores. Together, these three categories account for almost half of all the sales taxes, and all three also result in a significant fiscal benefit to the City." ❑ The remaining 30 percent of the City's sales tax revenues are generated by taxable transactions at Newport Beach businesses as follows: office (10% of sales tax revenues); service commercial (70/6); boat and marine equipment sales (50/o); light industrial (40/6); hotels (30/6); and home -based businesses (less than 1%) (Figure 1). ❑ The transient occupancy tax equals about eight percent of revenues in the analysis and is primarily generated by lodging facilities in Newport Beach (i.e. 18 Approximately 65% of the net revenues from the retail land use category is derived from auto dealerships, grocery stores, and department stores (Table 14). APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 21 hotels and motels). However, residential properties which are leased as vacation rentals (of less than 31 days) also generate significant TOT revenue (nearly $1 million annually). ❑ Residential uses generate 40 percent of franchise fees and 100 percent of the motor vehicle in lieu subvention from the state. ❑ Other revenues are generated approximately in proportion to the population and employment supported by each land use. ❑ Overall, residential land uses create about 44 percent of the revenues. Retail uses generate 18 percent followed by office uses at 11 percent and lodging at 8.7 percent (Figure 2). FIGURE I Sales Tax Revenue by Land Use Type No eb IIpM,iMu.trbl5 Home-0..1 Bu.ln. 4%� <S% Bo.[&M.dm EqulPmanx 5% Servke eommertbl 1% RMM ' )0% l..v.�blq Savo. Wi FIGURE 2 Gross Revenues by Land Use H.mrb Bwn... Costs ❑ Residential uses require about 48 percent of both police and fire department services, which constitute the largest expenditures for the City (followed closely by street and facility maintenance performed by the public works department). ❑ Retail businesses require about one -fifth of total police services, while public land uses, mainly the beaches serving visitors, require about 8 percent. Lodging facilities are estimated to require just one percent of total police services. ❑ The beaches and other visitor -serving public land uses require about 21 percent of fire department costs, primarily because of the City's lifeguard services. Net Impact ❑ In total, residential uses require about 51 percent of municipal services, while generating slightly less than half the revenue needed to operate city government. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 22 This results in an annual net cost for residential uses of about $6.0 million per year for Newport Beach. This is normal for most cities in California, and in fact is probably much worse in many other communities that do not enjoy the higher housing values found in Newport Beach. ❑ The lodging sector generates the largest net revenue, at $7.8 million, followed by the retail sector at about $7.1 million. ❑ The marine industry, including boat sales and manufacturing, generates about $2.7 million in net revenue, followed by service commercial uses at $1.8 million. ❑ Industrial and institutional uses essentially break even, contributing very modest net revenues. ❑ Office uses currently generate a negative impact (-$6.6 million) due to their high employment, which adds to municipal costs. However, these uses, along with industrial uses, also create jobs and income that contribute significantly to the city's economic base, as discussed in more detail below. ❑ Public land uses also reflect a negative impact due to the lack of direct revenues. However, this should be viewed in the context of the overall visitor impact as discussed below and summarized in Table 15. As mentioned at the outset, the key point in this analysis is to identify how the mix of land uses in the City provides a balance of revenues to fund services for residents and businesses alike. Although the analysis indicates that residential, office, and public uses create a negative fiscal impact for the City, this one-dimensional view does not tell the whole story. Land uses within the City are linked economically and do not function in isolation of each other. In a broad sense, the city economy is driven by land uses that draw dollars into the community by selling goods and services to the outside world (see Figure 3). This includes hospitality and retail businesses that serve tourists, but office and industrial businesses generate an even larger share of the City's "economic base." These businesses create jobs and incomes for people living in Newport Beach who in turn buy retail goods locally. As Figure 3 illustrates, while retail and visitor -serving businesses generate net tax revenue to help provide services to other land uses, particularly residential, those land uses ultimately generate the tax dollars by patronizing Newport Beach businesses. The primary goal, again, is to maintain a well-balanced land use mix that can support the level of services desired by residents and businesses alike. The following discussion focuses on•certain prominent economic sectors in Newport Beach. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 23 TABLE 13 Summary Of Fiscal Analysis Service REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax $36,879,169 $29,311,725 $3,160,525 $357,210 $1,284,735 $439,521 $524,860 Sales Tax $19,841,351 $76,329 $1,938,437 $13,922,674 $892,789 $594,391 $978,688 TrenskMOccupancy Tax' $8,299,000 $840,000 -- T-�O---'TO _ $0 $7,458p00 --$0 _ Frandilse Fees _$2,348,673 $9963,881 $900,307 �,$260,559 $33.591 _� _§27,487 Business Licenses $2,377,807 $357,507 $742,200 $240,299 $112,668 $10,585 $26,993 Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $o $0 $0 $0 $0 _ OUIerinkrgOYemmenSal'$1,570,200 $764,28D 382,501 110,700 $14,271 $20,906 $11;678 Chargesfor Service ,$8501,375e= 4;137,967 $2,070,939y 1599,353 -$772-68- �13,191 63,227 Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures $3,137,732 $1,527,263 $764,353 $221,212 $28,519 $41,777 $23,336 Licenses and Permits $375,152 $182,602 $91,387 $26,448 $3,410 $4,995 $2,790 -- - ' Use of Property $5,284,288 _ $1,027,072_ -$907,215 $675,556 _ $154,480 -' $53,747 _ $991,056 Other Revenue 1732,653 i $271,43 3 $135�845 _139.315 $5.068 - $7425 179,147 Interestlneor $1,420,786 $646,898 $166,497 $258,591 $40,970 $137,435 $44,466 $1,416,413 $384,180 $0 $111,126 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND $92,467,187 $41,806,956$10,760,206 $16,711,917 $2,647,770 $8,881,972$2,873,728 TIDELANDS FUND $3,806,520 $658,296 $3,673,555 )icenses,Permits, and Fees-'------61,153,000 $0 0 $510,000- $0- - $0 633,000 - $0 $0 0 ChargesforService_ _l 33,500 o®® �0$D S0 nSeo _.� ;'D _d Use of Money and Property $5,359,4922 $2,285,528 $0 $106,514 $0 $0 $997,896 $61,800 $110,000 $1,797,754 STATEGASTAXFUND $1,472,496 $1,472,496 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 MEASURE-M FUND _ _ __$0 1 SIIRTOTAI ATIMPF11Nr1R t071R4RR t47A7A41 t11779R k14RR.SS4 ti Q4 t4S-R4R ki 774 RR7 k14Ri77 tllnnnn k1707744 TOTAL REVENUE APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 24 TABLE 13 (continued) Summary Of Fiscal Analysis Service EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodoino Marine Commercial Institutional Public General Government Police _--'Fire Public Works Community Development Community Services F, - CIP.Sheets .__ - Olherg1PProfects $4,993,431 $1,602,600 $959,110 $9,882,582 $1,091,878m $57,630 $220,233 $64,607 $1,133,327 ;171,063 $451,267 $201,652 $2,551,301 :167,958 ' ' 685,295 -m 171,375 ,593,190, ;152,247 $724;997 $177,013 $2,564,080 $16,821 $80,101 �. $19,557 $283,293 $0 $0 $0 $0 '$8,4i3 - --_ $42709---- 8,413- $16,825 02 873 V5,.117 363,828 _$21603„ i595,735 $2,306,830 �. $667,734 $11,505,850 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources Division #1,282136- -- $D 0 '$0 $0 $0 riii2,138'�'� $0 _ =" $0 __ $0 011 and Gas 53588,7 1,882 _,�.._» 0 �.`_-�_....� _I_._.u__ $ ___ _,..$�-_..,__ v_ .0.._...-...___ D�.. SIA CIP _ $1,065,656 $404,741 ..._ $189,094 $54,726 $7,055 $10,335 $40,773 $27,491 $6,712 $324,728 STATEGASTAXFUND $1,558,388 $280,510 $345,590 $779,585 $20,093 $42,194 $10,046 $50,231 $10,046 $20,093 MEASURE M FUND $1,056,384 $190,084 $234,185 $528,637 $13,615 $28,593 $6,808 $34,039 $6,808 $13,615 SUBTO�TA(. OTHERFUNDS $5,314,453 _ $875,335 $766,669 $1,362,948_ '$40,763 $61,122$1,339,765 $111,761 _ $26�586 $710,323, $301,546,6 $51,530,068 $17,497628$11,635,577 $2,491,895$1,129,936$1,935,500 $2,418,591 $691,300 $12,216,171 TOTALEXPENDRURES 9� _ NET(COSTgREVENUE $139,026 ($5,960,471) ($6,620,186) $6,544,894 $209,870$7,788,005$2,661,815 $1,539,701 $76,996($6,744,865) APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 25 TABLE 14 Retail Employment And Fiscal Impacts Np1CS Description Enugpercent Em Is `,,ales Tax Revenue percent Other Revenue Costs Net Revenue percent 4411 Automobile Dealers 613 5.5% 2,345,749 16.8% 219,505 619,895 1,945,359 29.0% 4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 207 1.6% 616,017 4.4% 74,170 209,461 480,726 7.2% 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 235 2.1% 520,694 3.7%3.7% 44,258 237,950 367,002 5.5% 4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores 148 1.3% 174,080 1.3% 53,159 150,123 77,116 1.20/b n7 0.6% 59.919 0.4% 23,867 67,402 16,385 0.2% 4442 Lawn 8 Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 25 0.2% 164,727 1.2% 9,041 25,531 148,237 2.2% 4451Grocery Stares 786 7.1% 1,828,051 13.1% 281,343 794,528 1,314,856 19.6% 4452 Spedalty Food Stores 99 0.9 /a aY,baa a.D7° a2,vo7 ivu,v°c , i ...• 1. 4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 24 0.2% 68,566 0.5% 8,679 24,510 52,735 0.8% 4461 Health and Personal Care Stores 419 3.8% 314,269 2.3% 150,074 423,816 40,526 0.6% 4471 Gasoline Stations 115 1.0% 500,011 3.6% 41,225 116,422 424,814 6.3% 4481 Clothing Stores 574 5.2% 700,350 5.0% 205,402 580,067 325,685 4.9% 4482 Shoe Stores 21 0.2% 58,350 0.4% 7,594 21,446 44,498 0.7% 44a3 lewelrv. Luaoaae. and Leather Goods Stores 130 1.2% 184,697 1.3% 46,649 131,741 99,606 1.5% 4512 Book, Periodical, and Music Stores 88 0.8% 112,427 0.8% 31,461 88,848 55,040 0.8% 4521 Department Stores and Other General Merchandise 1,295 11.7% 1,989,761 14.3% 463,601 1,309,235 1,144,126 17.1% 4531 FWsts 59 0.5% 40,SO4 0.3% 20,974 59,232 2,246 0.0% 4532 Ofte,SURp ie$, Statlonary, and Gltt Stores 144 1.3% _ 104,900 0.8% 51,712 146,038 10,574 0.2% 4533 Used Merchandise Stores 24 0.2% 26,120 0.2% 8,679 24,510 10,289 0.2% 4539 Other Miscellaneous Retailers 194 1.0% 655,425 4.6% 69,412 196,023 528,814 8.0% 722 Eating and Drinking Places 5,772 $2.2% 3,226,259 23.2% 2,067,038 58,37,432 -544,105 •8.1% Total 1 11,057 100.0-/.l 13,922,674100.0% 3,959,774 11182625 6,699,823100.00/u Source: California Economic Development Department, California Board of Equalization, and Applied Development Economics APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 26 Figure 3 Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach e rurans. cl. 0. =ra W praaur.wic_„�,�, purchase Newport Beach products and services v Net Tax Ddlars Worker earnings for Services from husfnesses outside Newport Beach Iobsh I �Net rax Dalar:�, Income 11 for Services Regional Visitor Shopping Spending lobs b Income Income Weal purchases Jobs & Net Tax Dollars Income for Services Net Tax Dollars !or Services Businessto Business local Transactions purchases —� and Visitor Spending APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 27 TABLE 15 Fiscal Impact Of Visitors In Newport Beach REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax $1,273,612 $726,928 $ $107,163 $ $439,521 $0 $ $ $ Celee Tar 4771194 S S S4.176.80 $ $594391 $0 $ $ $ Business Licenses $89,078 vmm n,ao, yv.muum,,,, Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures $ $ SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND $19,619,045 $1,648,86 $ $5,485,77 ANDS FUND O Perinnfits, Ond' ees $520,000 $ $ $8,881,972 $121,923 $52,16 $ $3,428,35 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 28 TABLE 15 (continued) Fiscal Impact Of Visitors In Newport Beach Office Retail Industrial Public -- -.. --. G tl CLA nQ DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 29 HOSPITALITY AND VISITOR SECTOR According to a recent report presented by the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau, the city attracts about 7.18 million visitors per year, of which 81 percent are here on leisure trips.19 Of this number, 86 percent are day visitors, 7 percent stay in local hotels and the balance stay in private homes. About 64% of the visitors reported visiting the beaches during their stay. This would amount to about 4.6 million visitors, or an annual average of 12,500 per day. During the peak summer season, this average figure climbs to 100,000. Non -beach goers likely include many business travelers and other SouthernCalifornia residents coming to Newport Beach to shop. From an economic standpoint, visitors bring substantial income to Newport Beach. Visitors spend an estimated $1 billion in the city each year, of which about $449 million are retail purchases and $83 million are lodging expenses. These two categories of spending alone generated about $4.8 million in sales taxes and $8.3 million in Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) for the City budget in 2001. Visitors generate other revenues as well, including indirect business license and property taxes, revenues from use of public property, and others. Table 15 summarizes the comprehensive revenues and cost impact on local government by visitors to Newport Beach. Overall visitors generate about $21.6 million per year against $16.7 million in service costs. The service costs include $4.9 million in police services, $2.7 million for beach lifeguards included in the fire department budget, as well as other emergency medical calls made by the fire department. The net positive fiscal impact of visitor business activity in Newport Beach, then is about $4.9 million per year, not counting the net fiscal benefit of the marine industry, discussed below. These are revenues that contribute toward City services provided to residents and businesses in the community. 19 CIC Research, Inc. profile of Visitors to Nmprnt Beads FY2001. November 16, 2001. For purposes of the study, visitors were defined as persons who lived outside of Newport Beach and were not in the City for purposes of daily employment. About 18 percent of the survey respondents live in Orange or Los Angeles counties. An additional 15 percent live in Riverside or San Bernardino counties. Overall, about 8 percent listed shopping as the main purpose of their trip to Newport Beach. Although this is not broken down by place of origin, it is likely that many of the visitors from elsewhere in Southern California come to Newport Beach solely for shopping and would not be considered "tourists" in the commonly understood meaning of that term. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 30 MARINE INDUSTRY As noted above, marine industries in Newport Beach, which include marina slip rentals, boat sales, chartered vessels for events and sport fishing, boat repair, and boat maintenance and manufacturing, account for over 1,000 jobs and generate nearly $2.7 million in net revenues This positive fiscal result is largely due to property tax derived from boats moored in Newport Beach marinas, sales tax generation among boat dealers and other marina -related businesses, a marine charter fee, and lease income from coastal property owned by the State of California but that the City operates as the State's trustee. For purposes of the fiscal analysis we have included the City's Harbor Resources Division in the costs associated with this industry. However, as noted above, there is significant overlap between the marine industry and the hospitality industry. The marine industries that manufacture, sell, and service the boats have undergone a significant transformation in the past twenty years. There are issues today about the continued viability of the marine industry in Newport Beach that should be recognized in the general plan update process. Twenty years ago, there were five to six major boat manufacturers in Southern California, and a number of smaller outfits. Since that time, all of the major manufacturers have left California, mostly to Florida. While a few of the smaller manufacturers remain, others have moved inland to Riverside County. This has largely been due to increased environmental regulation in California affecting fiberglass manufacturing processes, as well as real estate price inflation in coastal communities. There has been a consolidation among boat supply and servicing companies as well. As costs have risen, fewer firms are now serving the demand for specialty boat parts, and boat repair and servicing. Those that do not have to be on the water have moved to inland locations. Some have found locations in the West Newport industrial areas, but many have gone further inland to the Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Long Beach industrial areas, as well as locations in Riverside and San Diego counties and Mexico. Those businesses still in the industry report very strong demand for their goods and services. Although the total number of slips in Southern California is not growing dramatically, there is a lot of "move up" sales activity as existing boaters purchase larger and more expensive boats that require a greater level of support and servicing. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 31 Businesses throughout the industry have expressed concern about the real estate pressure on their locations near the water. This is an issue that continues to affect businesses leasing space, particularly in the Cannery and Mariner's Mile areas of town. As noted above, many businesses have moved inland and service boats in the harbor from more remote locations. If this issue reduces the availability of boat services in Newport Beach sufficiently, it may cause the consumer market in boats to shift as well to other locations. Currently, the city realizes significant sales and property tax revenues from boats and related industries. The indirect benefit of the boating industry could also be improved by increasing access for visiting boats to dock and launch facilities in Newport Harbor. This issue is complicated by the fact that over 90% of the harbor frontage is in private ownership. This leaves little opportunity for the City to increase the availability of public facilities. However, if private entrepreneurs could add to the available facilities, it would help increase the capture of visitor spending in Newport Beach on restaurants and other retail goods and services. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 32 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF NEWPORT COAST FISCAL IMPACTS INTRODUCTION This chapter demonstrates how the fiscal model can be used to analyze future development in the City by presenting an example of existing and projected development in the Newport Coast area. The analysis primarily illustrates the distinction between marginal service costs and average service costs, which will be important in considering the impacts of future development in other areas of the City as well. Marginal costs represent the actual incremental costs of providing services to a new proposed development. In contrast, an average cost approach would treat the proposed development the same as existing development in the City and assume that the costs to serve it are similar on a per capita basis as the costs to serve all other development in the City. The analysis in the previous chapter is done on an average cost basis, because the intent is to show the levels of cost the City incurs to provide for the existing residents and businesses. The true marginal costs, on the other hand, can be either higher or lower than the average depending on the levels of available service capacity. This can be most easily illustrated with fire services, as the Newport Coast analysis shows. If the existing fire stations in the City can serve a proposed development, then the incremental cost of providing service is likely to be lower than the average since existing facilities, equipment and manpower can be used. If a new station is needed, then the marginal cost of that is likely to be higher than the average unless the development is so large that it supports the need for a fire station all by itself. As the City considers future development options in the General Plan Update process, the location of the development and the status of existing services at those locations will play a role in the fiscal impact analysis. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The land use data for the analysis is taken from the traffic model database for the year 2000 and the projection for the year 2025. The fiscal analysis evaluates the year 2000 as APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 33 the existing land use case and the year 2025 as full buildout of the area. As shown in Table 16, buildout is about double the development levels in the year 2000. The traffic model tracks non-residential development in terms of three employment categories: retail, services and other. It was necessary for us to make assumptions about the more specific business types this would entail in Newport Coast, as shown in the table. The assessed value estimates for both scenarios are based on residential unit values of $815,000 for single-family units and $600,000 for the condominiums. These values are based on a review of property tax data in the Newport Coast area, and are higher than the values obtained for the City of Newport Beach as a whole. TABLE 16 Newport Coast Development: Year 2000 and 2025 Land Use Units Year 2000 Population Assessed Value Units Year 2025 Population Assessed Value RESIDENTIAL Single Family 1,264 3,001 $1,030,160,000 3,063 7,378 $2,496,345,000 Condominium 1,136 2,697 $681,600,000 1,763 4,223 $1,057,800,000 Apartment 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 High Density 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Total Residential 2,400 5,699 $1,711,760,000 4,826 11,602 $3,554,145,000 NON-RESIDENTIAL Sq. Ft. 15,000 Employment 50 $1,995,000 Sq. Ft. 45,000 Employment 150 $5,985,000 Office Retail 68,600 196 $6,311,200 68,600 196 $6,311,200 Industrial 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Lodging 150,000 250 $15,600,000 297,600 496 $30,950,400 Marine 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Service Commercial 835,000 835 $100,200,000 1,329,000 1,329 $159,480,000 Institutional 100,000 100 $7,200,000 150,000 150 $10,800,000 Total Non -Residential 1,168,600 1,431 $131,306,200 1,890,200 2,321 $213,526,600 COST ANALYSIS At the time of the annexation, City departments made estimates of expected service costs, both for the initial development levels and for ultimate buildout. In some cases the full service cost for buildout was funded initially, and in other cases the costs were deferred until further development occurs. This situation raises the opportunity to consider both the marginal cost of the initial annexation and the average cost of serving the area at full buildout. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAUt,14 Fire Protection Services Newport Coast has an existing fire station, designated No. 8 by the City, which was in Place at the time of annexation. At that time, the City estimated the cost of operating the station at $1.39 million per year?' This is less than the average cost of operating other stations in Newport Beach, estimated at about $2 million, but more than the incremental per capita cost of adding the amount of development in Newport Coast in 2000. Since the City assumed operation of the station, we have shown $1.39 million as the cost of fire protection services in 2000 in Table 17. As Newport Coast develops further, the City's plan is to move the existing Station No. 5 in Corona del Mar further south to obtain better response times to Newport Coast as well as CdM. Thus, at buildout the City will serve Newport Coast from two stations. However, based on the amount of development at buildout and the fact that Station No. 8 would also serve development west of Newport Coast, the net cost effect would be approximately equal to the cost of one full station. This is estimated by the fiscal model at nearly $1.9 million (Table 18), not including the cost of moving Station No. 5. Therefore, the marginal cost of the initial annexation -at $1.39 million -was higher than the average per capita cost would have been but, conversely, the marginal cost of completing buildout of the area -at $487,000-is much less than the average cost. Police Services In the case of police services, part of the departmental expansion needed to serve full buildout of the Newport Coast area was made at the time of annexation, and part was deferred until a later time. Specifically, the detective division received the entire complement of personnel needed to serve full development of the area2% while the patrol and traffic divisions received an incremental increase that reflected immediate service demands at the time of annexation.' In estimating the costs of service, the full detective division cost -estimated at 25 percent of the total police services cost -was included in Table 17, along with the incremental cost of the traffic and patrol division as estimated by the fiscal model. This results in a 20 Terry, Ulaszews4 Fiscal/Information Services Manager, Newport Beach Fire and Marine Department. 21 Captain Tim Newman, Detective Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department 22 Captain Paul Henisey, Traffic and Patrol Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 35 slightly higher cost for police services in Table 17, reflecting the year 2000, than would be commensurate with the amount of development alone. As with the fire services, the net increase at full buildout is accordingly less than it would be otherwise, estimated at $944,000 compared to nearly $1.7 million to serve about the same amount of development currently. SUMMARY OF FISCAL IMPACT Overall, the analysis suggests that the year 2000 development generates about $800,000 per year in net revenues, while doubling the development to achieve full buildout would add another $1.9 million per year. Because the marginal costs of the annexation were higher than the average cost, the second half of buildout of the area generates 40 percent more in net revenue for the City than does the first half. Overall, Newport Coast does very well for the City-includine the residential land uses at buildout-primarily because of the higher property vale privately maintained re( APPLIED DEVELOPMENT E TABLE 17 Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Service Revenues Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercia Institutional Public 1 GENERAL FUND PropertyTax 3,133,213 2,909,992 3,392 10,729 0 26,520 0 170,340 12,240 $0 SalesTax '614,643 5,737 3,146 243,408 _ - 0_ 68,478 _0 2 3;873 - 0-0 Transient OxupangTax 1,031,060 0 0 0 0 1,031,060 0 0 0 0 Franchbe Fees OS OB _ 718 , , 1 6 609 0 5,879 U _ 19,635 - _ _ 2_;352 0 d� BuslnessLicenses 55,498 0 1,939 7,601 0 9,696 D 32,383 3,878 0 s Other lnlergovemmenlal 71,264 56,961 500 1,959 0 2,499 0� 8,346 1,000 0 ChartiesforServ(ce - 385,837 308,396- 2,.06 0;607 0 1"3,529 D ,1 7 ,412" 0 -' Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures 142,407 113,824 999 3,915 0 4,993 0 16,678 1,997 0 �ndPennits ' i7,026 - 1 609 1.19 46& _ _0 _-5970 - 11994 _ _ -" 2.39 _ UseofProperly 240,786 192,459 1,689 w6,619 0 8,443 0 28,200 3,377 0 OtherRevenUe - 25,309 20,229 177 _ 696 - ' 0 887 0 2;9 355 0 interestlncome 112 90 1 3 0 4 0 13 2 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 5,950,442 3,820,934 15,843 290,614 0 1,172,585 0 619,614 30,851 0 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Permits, and Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 0 0' 0 - -'_� 6 0__0 " 0 0 ° Charges forServlce 0 0 0' . "0- _ -- - - " " Use of Money and Property 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS T 0. MEASURE M 4,680 43705 , 3 , 503 0 1,917 0 6,404 767 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 191,742 153,257 1,345 5,271 0 6,723 0 22,456 2,689 0 TOTAL REVENUE 6,142,184 Y974,192 17,188 295,885 0 1,1/9,309 0 642,070 33,540 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 37 TABLE 17 (continued) Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercia Institutional Public 2,270 16,810 0 11,080 0 Fire - - PUb IC' OrkS '- 929,079 , _ > - j-- - - ,- - Communitv Development 102,649 82,047 720 2,822 0 3,599. _.. 0 12,022 1,440 0 CIP Streets SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 5,272,719 4,412;536 TIDELANDS FUND 11,413 0 4,071 0 0 137,439 0 448,132 56,120 0 Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 40,495 10,456 561 13,629 0 4,861 0 10,265 723 0 MEASURE M 27,448 7,085 380 9,242 0 3,294 0 6,956 490 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 67,943 17,541 941 22,871 0 8,155 0 17,221 1,213 0 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 5,340,662 4,430,077 30,728 211,577 0 145,594 0 465,353 57,333 0 NET (COST)IREVENUE 801,522 (455,886) (13,540) 84,308 0 1,033,715 0 176,717 (23,793) $0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 38 TABLE18 Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Revenues Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Service Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax 6,405,042 6,042,047 10,175 10,729 0 52,616 0 271,116 18,360 $0 ---- Saes Tax '868,120 ,679 9,439: 2 3, 8 _ _ 0- 135,861 0 467,734 - 0 0' „ Transient Occunancv Tax 1,031,060 0 0 0 0 1,031,060 0 0 0 0 Rncinacs I ir.nsae 90.014 0 5.817 7.601 0 19,236 0 51,542 5,817 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 10,744,957 8,020,380 48,274 295,178 0 1,332,456 0 1,001,667 47,001 0 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Permits, and Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t Charges for Service - 0 0 D 0 0 0- 0 0 0= 0 Use of Money and Property 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 88,97 88,97.1 0 0 0_ 6_76 0 0. 0 MEASUREM 106,771 88,971 1,150 1,503 0 3,804 0 10,192 1,150 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 195,742 177,942 1,150 1,503 0 3,804 0 10,192 1,150 0 TOTAL REVENUE 10,940,699 8,198,322 49,424 296,682 0 1,336,260 0 1,011,859 48,152 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 39 TABLE 18 (continued) Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public I:FNFRAI FI INr) TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 63,664 21,285 1,683 13,629 0 9,644 0 16,338 1,084 0 MEASUREM 43,148 14,424 1,140 9,242 0 6,536 0 11,071 735 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 106,812 35,709 2,823 22,871 0 16,180 0 27,409 1,819 0 Tr1TA1 FXPFNr1R11RFS 8.986.792 7.746.047 73,858 202,926 0 249,214 0 639,892 74,854 0 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 40 GENERAL PLAN BUILDOUT Buildout of the existing General Plan would maintain an overall positive fiscal balance for the City, in terms of annual operating costs and revenues. As summarized in the Table 19, the City's housing units, population and total employment would all grow about 16 percent. However, within these broad averages are some important variations. TABLE 19 Growth Rates 2002 • Buildout VARIABLE PERCENT GROWTH Occupied Single -Family Dwelling Units 3% Occupied Multi -Family Dwelling Units 25% Total Occupied Dwelling Units 16% Group.Quatters opuladom 0%------ttt' Pouldtion [Em . pl6yed, Residents _--_-. �...� 16% Retail Employees 24% Service Employees 16% Other Employees 10% Totaf Employees 169/a , Elementary/High School'Students 1% Iodging�Rooms 19%. Future residential growth is projected to focus heavily on multi -family development, which will tend to shift the tax base to slightly lower cost housing. However, as noted in the analysis of Newport Coast, housing prices for all types of units in -Newport Beach are rapidly reaching levels that can generate sufficient property tax to support public services. For the buildout analysis we assumed a modest 5 to 10 percent real growth in housing prices, which had a marked positive effect on the net cost of residential uses as shown in Table 20. Within the employment figures, the btfddout projection shows higher growth for retail and lodging employment, at 24 percent and 19 percent, respectively. As discussed in the earlier section of this report, these two business sectors are particularly strong net revenue generators. Along with the growth in hotels rooms and regional population, we have assumed a 20 percent growth in visitors to Newport Beach over the 20 to 25 years time period needed to achieve buildout. The increased visitors add sales tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) to the City's revenues but would also increase costs for police protection and emergency response among others. We have not assumed, however, a rH�c 4 i APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS commensurate increase in the marine industry or the number of boats moored in Newport Harbor. The general plan buildout projection does not include additional marina berths, and as discussed earlier, some elements of the marine industry are under pressure from rising real estate prices and may not be able to expand readily in Newport Beach. As shown in Table 20, the individual land uses perform about the same as in the existing land use scenario earlier, but the total net revenue is higher as a percent of revenue due to the increased proportion of sales tax, TOT tax and property tax from residential units. The analysis also includes the assumption that City would see increased revenues from the use of public property, as uses on these sites intensify to serve the increased resident and visitor population. It should further be noted that this analysis only addresses the annual costs of providing services and does not include any capital costs or improvements to public facilities needed to support the growth in the buildout projection. Due to the long time frame (20-25 years) to achieve buildout, we have not attempted to estimate the marginal costs of expanding or upgrading city facilities. As these costs are identified through subsequent analysis in the General Plan Update process, a discussion of financing for public improvements will be included in the fiscal analysis. APPLIED DEVEL( TABLE 20 Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND PropertyTax $43,839,479 35,821,978 $3,333,991 $367,962 $1,195,363 $493,736 #524,860 $1,676,490 #425,599 $0 ant OccupancyTa* $10,132,21 965,755 $u ;u ; Ru 4v,199,•n9_- Ftanchise'Fees_$2,85012-1:108;18_ 3, �L085,324 31&9219_$3d,185 tfi0,480.- .$27-�22 176569- Business Licenses $2,789,70 414,409 $894,726 294,123 $114,664 $13,010 $27,224 $283,371 _ charges for Service `Fines, Penalties, and Forieftures Licenses and Permits $471,618 SUBTOTAL GENERALFUND 110,325,42 50,252,481 $12,469,141 $20,293,555 $2,581,142$10,929,272 $3,044,688 $4,884,017 $752,392 $4,407,847 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 43 TABLE 20 (continued) Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Instgutional Public GENERALFUND General Government 11,055,740 5,805,709 $1,924,851 $1,172,953 $247,800 $115,570 $57,630 $293,585 $77,651 $1,359,992 2,671,510 . -A en�enw }oen nnn 113,534,925 58,889,002 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND STATE GAS TAX FUND 6 $802,898 13,607,020 0 $66,984 $7,180 $12,703 $40,773 $37,085 $8,136 954,203 $20,449 $51,860 $10,D46 $67,760 $12,177 $1,935,500 - APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 44 APPENDIX A LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION INDUSTRIAL 01 thm 09 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 15 thm 17 Construction 21 Ming 20 thm 39 Manufacturing 22 Utilities 40 thm 49 TCPU 23 Construction 50 — 51 Wholesale 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale Trade 48.49 Trans and Warehousing RETAIL 52 Building Materials and Garden Supplies 44-45 Retail Trade 53 General Merchandise Stores 722 Food Service& Drinking Places 54 Food Stores 55 Amomobile Dealers and Service Stations 56 Apparel and Accessory Stores 57 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 58 Eating and Drinking Places 59 Miscellaneous Retail OFFICE 60 Depository Institutions 52 Finance and Insurance 61 NondepositoryInstitutions 53 Real Estate 62 security and Commodity Brokers 54 Professional, Scientific,& Technical Services 63 Insurance Carvers 621-623 Health Care 64 Insurance Agents, Brokers, and Service 51 Information 65 Real Estate 561Administrative and Support Services 67 Holding and Investment Companies 73 Business Services 80 Health Services 81 • Legal Services ' 87 Engineering and Management Services SERVICE COMMERCIAL 72 Personal Services 81 Other Services 75 Auto Repair, Services, and Parking 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 76 Miscellaneous Repair Services 51213 Motion Picture & Video Exhibition 78 Motion Pictures 79 Amusement&Recreation Services INSTITUTIONAL 82 Educational Services 61 Educational Services 83 Social Services 624 Social Assistance 84 Museums, Botanical, Zoological Gardens 86 Memberships Organizations 91 thru 97 PublicAdminiRra*ion APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 45 LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION MARINE 2394 Mfg Of Canvas &Related Products 441222 Boat Dealers, New and Used 2499 Miscellaneous Wood Products Mfg 713930 Marinas 3663 Mfg Of Radio & TV Communications Equip 334220 Marine Radio Comm Equip Mfg 3731 Ship Building & Repairing 336612 Boat yards (i.e. boat mfg facilities) 3732 Boat Building&Repairing 811490 Boat, Pleasure, Repair & Maint Services 3993 Mfg Of Signs & Advertising Specialties 713990 Boating Clubs w/o Marinas 4422 Coastwise Transportation • Water 4469 Miscellaneous Water Transportation Services 4489 Water Passenger Transportation 4491 Marine Cargo Handling 4492 Towing & Tugboat Service 4493 Marinas 4499 Yacht Maintenance 5063 Electrical Apparatus & Equipment 5091 Sporting&Recreation Goods & Supplies 5099 Miscellaneous Durable Goods Wholesalers 5146 Fish & Seafood 5551 Boat Dealers 7699 Miscellaneous Repair Services LODGING 7011 Hotels & Motels 721 Accommodation GOVERNMENT NA Not irrdudedasm"hiBus LicFile NA Inchiaeso* Cityoj dassifrgl & a uax M APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 46 APPENDIX B DISTRIBUTION OF `USE OF PROPERTY' REVENUES BY LAND USE GENERALFUND Properties Residen Office Retail Light Ind. Lodging Marine Service Inst. Public Total Visitor -Serving 0 0 667,556 0 53 747 120,636 51,353 0 1,547,54 2,490,23 W.J. Carden Telescopes 2,00 2,00 Temp. Slip rentals 1,50 1,50 Galley caf6 20,000 20,000 Orange Co. Dock 40,000 40,000 Garages 36,096 36,096 Pay Telephones 25,000 25,000 CDM Concession 90,000 90,000 Misc. Concessions 2,60 2,60 Parking Meter Income 344,249 28,573 41,751 26,236 767,5671,208,37 City Parking Lots 303,307 25174 36,785 23,116 676,278 1,064,66 Non -Visitor -Serving 1027 07 407,215 8,000 154,480 0871,020 0 91,268 235,600 2,794,05 Beacon Bay 650,000 650,000 Balboa Yacht Basin 806,520 806,520 Basin Marine Shipyard 60,000 60,000 Electricity 10,000 10,000 Heritage Yacht Brok. 8,000 8,00 Balboa Yacht Club 4,50 4,50 Apartments 27,072 27,072 Intercity Bus Shelters 60,000 60,000 City facility Fees 55,000 55,000 OASIS 108,000 108,000 Library facility 2,00 2,00 Parking Meter Income 216,481 82,124 48,520 347,124 City Parking Lots 190,734 72,357 42,749 305,840 Marinapark 350,000 350,000 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 47 TIDELANDS FUND Properties Res Office Retail Light Ind. Lodging Marine Service Inst. Pub. Total Visitor -Serving 0 0 98,900 0 0 37,410 61,800 0 990,704 1,188,81 W.J. Carden Telescopes 1,80 1,80 Temp. Slip rentals 1,410 1,41 Galley caf6 20,000 20,000 Garages 40,704 40,704 Orange Co. Dock 36,000 36,000 Balboa Island Ferry 60,000 60,000 Balboa Pier Conc. 50,000 50,000 Newport Pier Conc. 25,000 25,000 Harbor Bait Barae 3,900 3,90 ranee. �eywu Beacon Bay 650,000 Balboa Yacht Basin Basin Marine Shipyard Electricity Bayside Yacht Sales Apartments 30,528 Balboa Bay Club 1,605,00 Petroleum Royalty Sale of aas APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 7, TABLE 15 Fiscal Impact Of Visitors In Newport Beach REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax $1,273,612 $726,928 $ $107,163 $ $439,521 $0 $ $ $ Sales Tax $4,771,193 $ $ $4,176,80 $ $594,391_ $0 $ $ $ _ Transient Occupancy Tax--E8,298,000 $840,000 -.8 - -3 �-"- 57,458,00 _ SO" _ S- $ _ J _,„ Franchise Fees _ $816048 __ V 88�m S_ _ _ 578;16 __A_. _ 5 $0 E - w S _ $ Business Licenses $89,078 $ S $72,09 S $10,58 $0 $ $ $6,40 Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu $0 $ $ $ $ $ $0 $ $ $ �.e ___�.._..__.—em _-_ Otherfrdergovemmental � 5250,791 $ $ _ E33,21 - �$ $20,90 $0 $ 5 $ 9T 6,675 _,_„__ C„_,___harqesfor Service i 9-665 $3383 _ - $ AIJ7,806 _ $ $113,191 $0 _ S $ $1,064.83� Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures $513,643 $12,48 $ $66,36 $ $41,77 $0 $ $ $393,015 Licenses and Permits $59,919 $ $ $7,93 $ $4,99 $0 $ $ $46,99 _ Useof Property— $2,490,233a S S 5667356 S $5374 $120036 51,35 �aS $1,597 Other Revenue — $�87 21 $ $1179 _ $ $7.42 �$0 $ $-- $6984 Interest Income $303,574 $25,51 $ $84,88 $ $137,435 $1,887 $80 $ $53,04 SUBTOTAL GENERAL. FUND $19,619.045 $1,648,86 $ $5,495,77 $ $8,881,972 $121,923 $52;16 $ $3,428,35 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses,Permits, and Fees $520,000 $ $520,000 5''m'� 3-"- —$0 $ - S $ Chargesfor$ery e 53,500 $ _ 4$ b ,J $ 33,500 $ $ E Use of Money and Property $1,188,814 $ $ $98,90 $ $37,410 $61,80 $ $990,704 STATEGR"S1%XFUND .._._.�.... ..-S72,01 -- -----5 ---- -$ - - --5- - -S _.�_-.gp S .�'e' S $9 TOTALREVENUE $21,649,919 $1,660,87 $ $6,357,28 $ $8,917,92 $192,833 $113,960 S $4,419,06 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 28 TABLE 15 (continued) Fiscal Impact Of Visitors In Newport Beach Service EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodaina Marine Commercial Institutional Public GM¢rxlGovemmenf E7¢90,71T $66,30 -- �$- S291,782 -- — 5 ' $99,30 -'--S ' ' s SO S T E1,133,322 — Ponce 54,9?5,517 $288.671m S $1760.533 $_ $_325,012 _ S$0_ - $ MS5130j Fire $5,309,182 $137,045 $ $331,139 $ $247,801 $ $0 $ $4,593,19 Public Works $3,351,071 $81,46 $ $437,965 $ $272,558 $ $0 $ $2,564,08 F-- Community D'8veloptmen M 370,243 —S9,00 S — R7,8'-i3 M S $30,11 --$ $0 — $283,2931 IL— __.CGlnmanfy.§ervices $,369 w $68136 S $0 _. $ _. 5 .�.„,....5 $0 .....___...� $ $i CIP•streets $261,056 $13,05 $ $195,848 $ $35,33 $ $0 $ $16,82 Other CIP Projects $11,56 $ $62,188 $ $38,67 $__ $0 $ $363,828 -'_ SUBTOTALGENEHAL FUND $15,61%097 _ $650,857 _ $ f2,864,255 $ - 5974787�"E _ $0 $ $11,125,197 41DEwxnsFurlD _� _�_ __ Harbor Resources Division $0 $ $ $0 $ $ $ $0� $ $ Oil and Gas $351,887 $ $ $0 $ $ $ $0 $ $351,887 -_-.«- _ �316418 --- -E _ Sf0}3 S - — - $0 - —__--$`_ E324J28 STATEGASTAXFUND 5311J46 $I5.,58 $ $233875 5_ $4119 S $0 3$.2609' MEASURE FUND $211,611 $10,56 $ $158,843 $ $28,59 $ $0 $ $13,61 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS $1229,814 $29,23 $ $409,136 $ $8112 $ $0 $ $710323 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 29 HOSPITALITY AND VISITOR SECTOR According to a recent report presented by the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau, the city attracts about 7.18 million visitors per year, of which 81 percent are here on leisure trips." Of this number, 86 percent are day visitors, 7 percent stay in local hotels and the balance stay in private homes. About 64% of the visitors reported visiting the beaches during their stay. This would amount to about 4.6 million visitors, or an annual average of 12,500 per day. During the peak summer season, this average figure climbs to 100,000. Non -beach goers likely include many business travelers and other Southern California residents coming to Newport Beach to shop. From an economic standpoint, visitors bring substantial income to Newport Beach. Visitors spend an estimated $1 billion in the city each year, of which about $449 million are retail purchases and $83 million are lodging expenses. These two categories of spending alone generated about $4.8 million in sales taxes and $8.3 million in Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) for the City budget in 2001. Visitors generate other revenues as well, including indirect business license and property taxes, revenues from use of public property, and others. Table 15 summarizes the comprehensive revenues and cost impact on local government by visitors to Newport Beach. Overall visitors generate about $21.6 million per year against $16.7 million in service costs. The service costs include $4.9 million in police services, $2.7 million for beach lifeguards included in the fire department budget, as well as other emergency medical calls made by the fire department. The net positive fiscal impact of visitor business activity in Newport Beach, then is about $4.9 million per year, not counting the net fiscal benefit of the marine industry, discussed below. These are revenues that contribute toward City services provided to residents and businesses in the community. 19 CIC Research, Inc. Profile of Visitors to Newpo)t 1iPidj FY2001. November 16, 2001. For purposes of the study, visitors were defined as persons who lived outside of Newport Beach and were not in the City for purposes of daily employment. About 18 percent of the survey respondents live in Orange or Los Angeles counties. An additional 15 percent live in Riverside or San Bernardino counties. Overall, about 8 percent listed shopping as the main purpose of their trip to Newport Beach. Although this is not broken down by place of origin, it is likely that many of the visitors from elsewhere in Southern California come to Newport Beach solely for shopping and would not be considered "tourists" in the commonly understood meaning of that term. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 30 MARINE INDUSTRY As noted above, marine industries in Newport Beach, which include marina slip rentals, boat sales, chartered vessels for events and sport fishing, boat repair, and boat maintenance and manufacturing, account for over 1,000 jobs and generate nearly $2.7 million in net revenues This positive fiscal result is largely due to property tax derived from boats moored in Newport Beach marinas, sales tax generation among boat dealers and other marina -related businesses, a marine charter fee, and lease income from coastal property owned by the State of California but that the City operates as the State's trustee. For purposes of the fiscal analysis we have included the Citys Harbor Resources Division in the costs associated with this industry. However, as noted above, there is significant overlap between the marine industry and the hospitality industry. The marine industries that manufacture, sell, and service the boats have undergone a significant transformation in the past twenty years. There are issues today about the continued viability of the marine industry in Newport Beach that should be recognized in the general plan update process. Twenty years ago, there were five to six major boat manufacturers in Southern California, and a number of smaller outfits. Since that time, all of the major manufacturers have left California, mostly to Florida. While a few of the smaller manufacturers remain, others have moved inland to Riverside County. This has largely been due to increased environmental regulation in California affecting fiberglass manufacturing processes, as well as real estate price inflation in coastal communities. There has been a consolidation among boat supply and servicing companies as well. As costs have risen, fewer firms are now serving the demand for specialty boat parts, and boat repair and servicing. Those that do not have to be on the water have moved to inland locations. Some have found locations in the West Newport industrial areas, but many have gone further inland to the Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Long Beach industrial areas, as well as locations in Riverside and San Diego counties and Mexico. Those businesses still in the industry report very strong demand for their goods and services. Although the total number of slips in Southern California is not growing dramatically, there is a lot of "move up" sales activity as existing boaters purchase larger and more expensive boats that require a greater level of support and servicing. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE Businesses throughout the industry have expressed concern about the real estate pressure on their locations near the water. This is an issue that continues to affect businesses leasing space, particularly in the Cannery and Mariner's Mile areas of town. As noted above, many businesses have moved inland and service boats in the harbor from more remote locations. If this issue reduces the availability of boat services in Newport Beach sufficiently, it may cause the consumer market in boats to shift as well to other locations. Currently, the city realizes significant sales and property tax revenues from boats and related industries. The indirect benefit of the boating industry could also be improved by increasing access for visiting boats to dock and launch facilities in Newport Harbor. This issue is complicated by the fact that over 90% of the harbor frontage is in private ownership. This leaves little opportunity for the City to increase the availability of public facilities. However, if private entrepreneurs could add to the available facilities, it would help increase the capture of visitor spending in Newport Beach on restaurants and other retail goods and services. APPLIEL PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF NEWPORT COAST FISCAL IMPACTS INTRODUCTION This chapter demonstrates how the fiscal model can be used to analyze future development in the City by presenting an example of existing and projected development in the Newport Coast area. The analysis primarily illustrates the distinction between marginal service costs and average service costs, which will be important in considering the impacts of future development in other areas of the City as well. Marginal costs represent the actual incremental costs of providing services to a new proposed development. In contrast, an average cost approach would treat the proposed development the same as existing development in the City and assume that the costs to serve it are similar on a per capita basis as the costs to serve all other development in the City. The analysis in the previous chapter is done on an average cost basis, because the intent is to show the levels of cost the City incurs to provide for the existing residents and businesses. The true marginal costs, on the other hand, can be either higher or lower than the average depending on the levels of available service capacity. This can be most easily illustrated with fire services, as the Newport Coast analysis shows. If the existing fire stations in the City can serve a proposed development, then the incremental cost of providing service is likely to be lower than the average since existing facilities, equipment and manpower can be used. If a new station is needed, then the marginal cost of that is likely to be higher than the average unless the development is so large that it supports the need for a fire station all by itself. As the City considers future development options in the General Plan Update process, the location of the development and the status of existing services at those locations will play a role in the fiscal impact analysis. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The land use data for the analysis is taken from the traffic model database for the year 2000 and the projection for the year 2025. The fiscal analysis evaluates the year 2000 as DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 33 the existing land use case and the year 2025 as full buildout of the area. As shown in Table 16, buildout is about double the development levels in the year 2000. The traffic model tracks non-residential development in terms of three employment categories: retail, services and other. It was necessary for us to make assumptions about the more specific business types this would entail in Newport Coast, as shown in the table. The assessed value estimates for both scenarios are based on residential unit values of $815,000 for single-family units and $600,000 for the condominiums. These values are based on a review of property tax data in the Newport Coast area, and are higher than the values obtained for the City of Newport Beach as a whole. TABLE 16 Newport Coast Development: Year 2000 and 2025 Year2000 Year2025 Land Use Units Population Assessed Value Units Population Assessed Value RESIDENTIAL Single Family 1,264 3,001 $1,030,160,000 Condominium 1,136 2,697 $681,600,000 Apartment 0 0 $0 High Density 0 0 $0 Total Residential 2,400 5,699 $1,711,760,000 NON-RESIDENTIAL Sq. R. Employment Office 15,000 50 $1,995,000 Retail 68,600 196 $6,311,200 Industrial 0 0 $0 Lodging 150,000 250 $15,600,000 3,063 7,378 $2,496,345,000 1,763 4,223 $1,057,800,000 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 4,826 11,601 $3,554,145,000 Sq. Ft. Employment 45,000 150 $5,985,000 68,600 196 $6,311,200 0 0 $0 297,600 496 $30,950,400 Manne 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Service Commercial 835,000 835 $100,200,000 1,329,000 1,329 $159,480,000 Institutional 100,000 100 $7,200,000 150,000 150 $10,800,000 Total Non -Residential 1,168,600 1,431 $131,306,200 1,890,200 2,321 $213,526,600 COST ANALYSIS At the time of the annexation, City departments made estimates of expected service costs, both for the initial development levels and for ultimate buildout. In some cases the full service cost for buildout was funded initially, and in other cases the costs were deferred until further development occurs. This situation raises the opportunity to consider both the marginal cost of the initial annexation and the average cost of serving the area at full buildout. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 34 Fire Protection Services Newport Coast has an existing fire station, designated No. 8 by the City, which was in place at the time of annexation. At that time, the City estimated the cost of operating the station at $1.39 million per year ' This is less than the average cost of operating other stations in Newport Beach, estimated at about $2 million, but more than the incremental per capita cost of adding the amount of development in Newport Coast in 2000. Since the City assumed operation of the station, we have shown $1.39 million as the cost of fire protection services in 2000 in Table 17. As Newport Coast develops further, the City's plan is to move the existing Station No. 5 in Corona del Mar further south to obtain better response times to Newport Coast as well as CdM. Thus, at buildout the City will serve Newport Coast from two stations. However, based on the amount of development at buildout and the fact that Station No. 8 would also serve development west of Newport Coast, the net cost effect would be approximately equal to the cost of one full station. This is estimated by the fiscal model at nearly $1.9 million (fable 18), not including the cost of moving Station No. 5. Therefore, the marginal cost of the initial annexation -at $1.39 million -was higher than the average per capita cost would have been but, conversely, the marginal cost of completing buildout of the area -at $487,000-is much less than the average cost. Police Services In the case of police services, part of the departmental expansion needed to serve full buildout of the Newport Coast area was made at the time of annexation, and part was deferred until a later time. Specifically, the detective division received the entire complement of personnel needed to serve full development of the are21, while the patrol and traffic divisions received an incremental increase that reflected immediate service demands at the time of annexation.22 In estimating the costs of service, the full detective division cost -estimated at 25 percent of the total police services cost -was included in Table 17, along with the incremental cost of the traffic and patrol division as estimated by the fiscal model. This results in a 20 Terry, UlaszewsK Fiscal/Information Services Manager, Newport Beach Fire and Marine Department. 21 Captain Tim Newman, Detective Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department 22 Captain Paul Henisey, Traffic and Patrol Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 35 slightly higher cost for police services in Table 17, reflecting the year 2000, than would be commensurate with the amount of development alone. As with the fire services, the net increase at full buildout is accordingly less than it would be otherwise, estimated at $944,000 compared to nearly $1.7 million to serve about the same amount of development currently. SUMMARY OF FISCAL IMPACT Overall, the analysis suggests that the year 2000 development generates about $800,000 per year in net revenues, while doubling the development to achieve full buildout would add another $1.9 million per year. Because the marginal costs of the annexation were higher than the average cost, the second half of buildout of the area generates 40 percent more in net revenue for the City than does the first half. Overall, Newport Coast does very well for the City —including the residential land uses at buildout—primarily because of the higher property values obtained in the area. Also, the fact that many of the streets are privately maintained reduces the City's costs. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 'PAGE 36 TABLE 17 Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Revenues Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercia Institutional Public PropertyTax 3,133,213 2,909,992 3,392 10,729 0 26,520 0 170,340 12,240 $0 �� - SalesTa_zm614,643 5,737 3,-146 243,408-'-0 88,478 0 ` 293,873 T_ransientOccupancyTax 1,031,060 0 0 0 0 1,031,060 �0 0 0 0 Fees 105,508 > 1,176 '� tl4,609 0 '� 5879 0 ^ 19,635 2,352 0'� i BusinesFranchise s Licenses 55,498 _71,857 0 1,939 7,601 0 9,696 0� 32,383 a 3,878 0 _ ---_ s-- - - Mi;i- Vehide-in-Lieu 127-,780 127,780- -- 0-- - _.O O -_ U Other Intergovernmental 71,264 56,961 500 1,959 0 2,499 0 8,346 1,000 0 Cha%esforService 385,837_^308,396 2,706 �10,607 _'0�T13,529 0 45,167 p' 5,412 0 Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures 142,407 113,824 999 3,915 0 4,993 0 16,678 1,997 0 �-----�t.icensesandPermifs _ 17,026 �� 13,609 �119 Use of Property 240,786 192,459 1,689 6,619 0 8,443 0 28,200 3,377 0 J _ Interest Income 112µ� 90 1 3 m 0 4 0 ...�.s_ 13 2 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 5,950,442 3,820,934 15,843 290,614 0 1,172,585 0 619,614 30,851 0 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Permits, and Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 =--66ge----rvlce _ -�0- D s TO Use of Money__ and Property 0 0 0 0 0 0 0� 0 0 GASTAX _� 137,062 - 109,552 961 3,768 0 -_4,806 _ 0"1_6Los, 1,922- 0 _ MEASURE M _ 54,680 43,705 383 1,503 0 s 1,917 0 6,404 767 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 191,742 153,257 1,345 51271 0 6,723 0 22,456 2,689 0 TOTAL REVENUE APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE37 TABLE 17 (continued) Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Service Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercia Institutional Public Fire 1,369,628 1,120,245 7,752 27,979 0 34,834 0 160,654 18,164 0 _92_9,079_ 742,605 �,51 25,541 _._..__..�0 32,578 M 0 1%809 13,031 0 Community Development 102,649 82,047 720 2,822 0 3,599 0 12,022 1,440 0 h Services- 624,667 2 624,667 0 0_ 0 0 0 Og� 0 0 1 _-Community _� Streets 33,911 8,756 470 11,413 0 -- 4,071 _ 0� 8,596 605 0 _CIP _e._____ OihefClPePraiecis 131,831 1D5,371 925 3,624 0 4,623 05,439�a�'1,849 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 5,272,719 4,412,536 29,787 u� 188,706 0 137,439 0 448,132 56,120 0 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 40,495 10,456 561 13,629 0 4,861 0 10,265 723 0 MEASURE M 27,448 7,085 380 9,242 0 3,294 0 6,956 490 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 67,943 17,541 941 22,871 0 8,155 0 17,221 1,213 0 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 5,340,662 4,430,077 30,728 211,577 0 145,594 0 465,353 57,333 0 NET (COST)IREVENUE 801,522 (455,886) (13,540) 84,308 0 1,033,715 0 176,717 (23,793) $0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 38 TABLE 18 Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Revenues Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax Transient Occupancy Tax _Charged Fines, Penalties, and I -'�"T�Licenses ai 6,405,042 6,042,047 10,175 10,729 0 52,616 0 271,116 18,360 $0 868,$0 -- 11,679 9,439 _ 24733,408 0 - 35,861 } 0 467,734 _� 0 0 _' 1,031,060 0 rn 0 0 0 1,031,060 v 0 0 0 0 200,860 _ 146,281 3,527 1f,664 0 �0 '�'_ 31,252 90,014 0 5,817 7,601 0� 19,236 51,542 5,817 0 260,122 -,- 260,122 -_0 - 0- 0 - - _ _ 0 0 0T, 139,154 115,955 1,499-1,959 0 �4,958 J�0 �` 13,284 _ 1,499 0 0 N 16,751 Interest Income 166,262 124,103 747i 4,567� 0 20,618 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 10,744,957 8,020,380 48,274 295,178 0 1,332,456 TIDELANDS FUND 0 1 0 1,001,667 47,001 0 Licenses, Perils, and Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Charges for Service 0 0 0 0 0_ n.r 0 0 0- 0 _.Ej Use of Money and Property 0 0 0 0 0 .� 0 .. 0 0 w._._ 0 0 GASTAX -= 4Y {--' 88,971 88,971 .0-- 0---6- -- 0 0 T 0 0 101 MEASURE M 106,771 _ 88,971 1,150 _ 1,503 0 3,804 0 10,192 1,150 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 195,742 177,942 1,150 1,503 0 3,804 0 10,192 1,150 0 TOTAL REVENUE 10,940,699 8,198,322 49,424 296,682 0 1,336,260 0 1,011,859 48,152 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 39 TABLE 18 (continued) Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Service Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND General Government 872,951 761,787 6,810 16,810 0 21,982 0 58,497 7,065 0 Police_ 2,556,081 2,190,467 22,271 100,516T� 0 74,288 '^0 146,778 21'761 0 '� Rre 1,853,958 1,575,365 16,065 19,328 0 47,741 0 176,637 18,822 0 �_LL T_l�_�PUblicWorks�1,814,17TS,Si1,F17 19,547_ 25,5414.r_.w_.0 64,634 1_73,182~'� 19,547�0 j Community Development 200,440 167,023� 2,160 2,822 0 7,141 _0_ 0 19,134 2,160 0 CommunityServices 1,271,640 1,271,640� 0� "- 0 0 �'- 2 a _ 0 - 0 0 - CIP Streets 53,312 17,824 1,409 11,413 0 8,076 0 13,682� 908 0 I vim., P OtherClP_Projects _ 'g214,505 2,774 3�,624�g 0_ 9,171 0 ' 24,573 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND �25_7;421 8,879,980 7,710,338 71,035�180,055 0 _ 233,034 0 612,483 73,036 0 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GASTAX 63,664 21,285 1,683 13,629 0 9,644 0 16,338 1,084 0 MEASURE M 43,148 14,424 1,140 9,242 0 6,536 0 11,071 735 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 106,812 35,709 2,823 22,871 0 16,180 0 27,409 1,819 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE40 GENERAL PLAN BUILDOUT Buildout of the existing General Plan would maintain an overall positive fiscal balance for the City, in terms of annual operating costs and revenues. As summarized in the Table 19, the City's housing units, population and total employment would all grow about 16 percent. However, within these broad averages are some important variations. TABLE 19 Growth Rates 2002 • Buildout VARIABLE PERCENT GROWTH Occupied Single -Family Dwelling Units 3% Occupied'Multi-Famlly Dwelling Units 25% Total Occupied Dwelling Units 16% Group quarters Population _ 0"/0 Population 16% 1 Employed Residents _ y 16% Retail Employees 24% Service Employees 16% Other Employees 10% p Total Employees Elementary/High School Students Lodging Rooms Future residential growth is projected to focus heavily on multi -family development, which will tend to shift the tax base to slightly lower cost housing. However, as noted in the analysis of Newport Coast, housing prices for all types of units in Newport Beach are rapidly reaching levels that can generate sufficient property tax to support public services. For the buildout analysis we assumed a modest 5 to 10 percent real growth in housing prices, which had a marked positive effect on the net cost of residential uses as shown in Table 20. Within the employment figures, the buildout projection shows higher growth for retail and lodging employment, at 24 percent and 19 percent, respectively. As discussed in the earlier section of this report, these two business sectors are particularly strong net revenue generators. Along with the growth in hotels rooms and regional population, we have assumed a 20 percent growth in visitors to Newport Beach over the 20 to 25 years time period needed to achieve buildout. The increased visitors add sales tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) to the City's revenues but would also increase costs for police protection and emergency response among others. We have not assumed, however, a APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 41 commensurate increase in the marine industry or the number of boats moored in Newport Harbor. The general plan buildout projection does not include additional marina berths, and as discussed earlier, some elements of the marine industry are under pressure from rising real estate prices and may not be able to expand readily in Newport Beach. As shown in Table 20, the individual land uses perform about the same as in the existing land use scenario earlier, but the total net revenue is higher as a percent of revenue due to the increased proportion of sales tax, TOT tax and property tax from residential units. The analysis also includes the assumption that City would see increased revenues from the use of public property, as uses on these sites intensify to serve the increased resident and visitor population. It should further be noted that this analysis only addresses the annual costs of providing services and does not include any capital costs or improvements to public facilities needed to support the growth in the buildout projection. Due to the long time frame (20-25 years) to achieve buildout, we have not attempted to estimate the marginal costs of expanding or upgrading city facilities. As these costs are identified through subsequent analysis in the General Plan Update process, a discussion of financing for public improvements will be included in the fiscal analysis. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 42 TABLE 20 Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout Service REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax $43,839,479 35,821,978 $3,333,991 $367,462 $1,195,363 $493,736 $524,860 $1,676,490 $425,599 $0 Sales Tax $23,932,38 88,480 $2,336,795 16,940,997 $908,606 $730,552 $987,067 $1,939,884 $0 $0 TransientOccupancylax` $10,732,2F� 965,756 _ $6 - --- '- $0 �- ^' ;0 59,166456 $0 - - --$U - _ $0 $g Franchise Fees__,850,12 1,308,183�1,0824318,921,186 360480 �$27,722 $176569 $35,736$0 Business Licenses $2,789,70 414,409 $894,726 294,123 $114,664 $13,010 $27,224 $283,371 $22,32.3 $14,956 Motor Vehicle•in•Lieu 1,970,61 1_,970,618 $0_ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Ofhelntergovemmenial _ 4 1,854,78 878,700's$961,107 _ $135,496' __ $14,524 _ 25,695�' 11,778"- _ 5,017 -� _ $16,45T $236,01Q ChargesforService $Y0,042,17 4,757,459 k2,495,527 73,3601 _ 8637e,__,_`139,120 63�768 $406,155 89102 $1,z77,803 Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures 3,706,41 1,755,908 921,431 $270,761 $29,024 $51,347 $23,536 $149,906 $32,886 $471,618 Licenses and Permits 443,14 209,939 $32,373 $3,470 $6,139 $2,814 $17,923 $3,932 $56,387 _ Use of Property _ 6;234,56-� 1,191,404 _ _$110,168 _ � _,369 $897,689 _ _ $157,570 -64,496--$1,149,625 _$56,488 - $105;871 $2;199,049 Other Revenue _ 833`72 Y_ 312,069 163761 .,®46i127 158 _ 912679�183ba642 ��$5,84583,818 Interest Income 1,696,11 777,579 $192,941 $314,011 $39,939 169,113 $47,112 $75,573 $11,642 $68,205 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 110,325,42 50,252,481 $12,469,141 $20,293,555 $2,581,142$10,929,272 $3,044,688 $4,884,017 $752,392 $4,407,847 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, -Permmds, and Fees Y 1,274,89 T -' 6 $0 _ $636,474 '- � $9 r-"J-0"$636,420 -' $0 '--16 -'- $0 Charges for Service $33J78 0 0 30_ $0 33,767_ v,�;,0,._._____$00 _ Use of Money and Property 6,248,79 2,651,212 $0 ._ _ $132,077 $0 �_£0 $0 $1,157,559 $67,980 $127,600 $2,112,361 STATEGASTAXFUND 1,689,51 1,689,515 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 .1MM UREMFUND -'- ----@1,453,44 5,307 $141,3292 1,030,647 _ TOTAL REVENUE $121,025,85 54,598,516$12,610,469 22,092,753 $2,636,094$10,973,455 $4,934,152 $5,069,321 $879,992 $6,250,208 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 43 TABLE 20 (continued) Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout Service EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND General Government 11,055,740 5,805,709 $1,924,851 $1,172,951 $247,800 $115,570 $57,630 $293,585 $77,651 $1,359,992 Police 35,480,007 16,731,187 $5,513,794 $7,037,249 $399,465 $171,063 $608,748 $244,418 $3,061,561 1-- Fire 25,526,657 _ �12,116,949 $4,780,764 $1,342,316 _$_1,712,522 $261,906 $247,442 $137,938 _ -$892,556 $201,93 $5;511,836 Public Works 24,179,820 11,455,760 $6,011,531 $1,766,479 $189,355 $334,995 $3S2,247 $978,003 $214,553 $3;076,8 Community Development 2,671,510 1,265,691 $664,185 195,170 $20,921 37,012 $16,821 $108,055 $23,705 $339,951 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources Division Oil and Gas STATEGASTAXFUND 1,876,969 325,164 $416,610 954,203 $20,449 $51,860 $10,046 $67,760 $12,177 $18,701 MEASURE M FUND 1,272,348 220,343 $282,311 647,046 $13,856 $35,143 $6,808 $45,918 $8,252 $12,672 'gU-BT TALOTTIERFUNDS -6-113,302--"1,014677 9-B875 1,668,232 $41,485 99,705 1,339,765 $150,763 _ ;78,564 $843,23{ TOTAL- EXPENDITURES 119,648,227 59,903,679 21,023,871 14,232,104 $2,517,980$1,325,150 $1,935,500 $3,228,226 $831,462 -14;650,254 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 44 APPENDIX A LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION INDUSTRIAL 01 thin 09 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 15 thru 17 Construction 21 Mining 20 thru 39 Manufacturing 22 Utilities 40 thru 49 TCPU 23 Construction 50 — 51 Wholesale 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale Trade 48.49 Trans and Warehousing RETAIL 52 Building Materials and Garden Supplies 53 General Merchandise Stores 54 Food Stores 55 Automobile Dealers and Service Stations 56 Apparel and Accessory Stores 57 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 58 Eating and Drinking Places 59 Miscellaneous Retail OFFICE 60 Depository Institutions 61 NondepositoryInstitutions 62 Security and Commodity Brokers 63 Insurance Carriers 64 Insurance Agents, Brokers, and Service 65 Real Estate 67 Holding and Investment Companies 73 Business Services 80 Health Services • 81 • Legal Services 87 Engineering and Management Services SERVICE COMMERCIAL 72 Personal Services 75 Auto Repair, Services, and Parking 76 Miscellaneous Repair Services 78 Motion Pictures 79 Amusement& Recreation Services INSTITUTIONAL 82 Educational Services 83 Social Services 84 Museums, Botanical, Zoological Gardens 86 Memberships Organizations 91 thru 97 Public Administration 44.45 Retail Trade 722 Food Service & Drinking Places 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate 54 Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services 621.623 health Care 51 Information 561 Administrative and Support Services 81 Other Services 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 51213 Motion Picture & Video Exhibition 61 Educational Services 624 Social Assistance APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION MARINE 2394 Mfg Of Canvas &Related Products 441222 Boat Dealers, New and Used 2499 Miscellaneous Wood Products Mfg 713930 Marinas 3663 Mfg Of Radio & TV Communications Equip 334220 Marine Radio Comm Equip Mfg 3731 Ship Building &Repairing 336612 Boat yards (Le. boat mfg facilities) 3732 Boat Building &Repairing 811490 Boat, Pleasure, Repair & Maint Services 3993 Mfg Of Signs & Advertising Specialties 713990 Boating Clubs w/o Marinas 4422 Coastwise Transportation - Water 4469 Miscellaneous Water Transportation Services 4489 Water Passenger Transportation 4491 Marine Cargo Handling 4492 Towing&Tugboat Service 4493 Marinas 4499 Yacht Maintenance 5063 Electrical Apparatus & Equipment 5091 Sporting &Recreation Goods & Supplies 5099 Miscellaneous Durable Goods Wholesalers 5146 Fish & Seafood 5551 Boat Dealers 7699 Miscellaneous Repair Services LODGING 7011 Hotels & Motels 721 Accommodation GOVERNMENT NA Not bmWd as cau ry in Bra LicFik NA I"cftules °"ly Cuy ofNempont Bead d pvtne dassi�al toaumeVofdiJ nwNAICSta APPLIED DEVELOPMENT EGOI APPENDIX B DISTRIBUTION OF `USE OF PROPERTY' REVENUES BY LAND USE GENERALFUND Properties Residen Office Retail Light Ind. Lodging Marine Service Inst. Public Total Visitor•Serving 0 0 667,556 0 53,747 120,636 51353 0 1,547,54 2,490,23 W.J. Carden Telescopes 2,00 2,00 Temp. Slip rentals 1,50 1,50 Galley cafe 20,000 20,000 Orange Co. Dock 40,000 40,000 Garages 36,096 36,096 I h 25 000 25,000 Pay Te ep ones , CDM Concession 90,000 90,000 Misc. Concessions 2,60 2,60 Parking Meter Income 344,249 28,573 41,751 26,236 767,567 1,208,37 City Parkinn Lots 303,307 25,174 36,785 23,116 676,278 1,064,66 Beacon Bay 650,000 650,000 Balboa Yacht Basin 806,520 806,520 Basin Marine Shipyard 60,000 60,000 Electricity 10,000 10,000 Heritage Yacht Brok. 8,000 8,00 Balboa Yacht Club 4,50 4,50 Apartments 27,072 27,072 Intercity Bus Shelters 60,000 60,000 City facility Fees 55,000 55,000 OASIS 108,000 108,000 Library facility 2,00 2,00 Parking Meter Income 216,481 82,124 48,520 347,124 City Parking Lots 190,734 72,357 42,749 305,840 Marinapark 350000 350,000 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 47 TIDELANDS FUND Properties Res Office Retail Light Ind. Lodging Marine Service Inst. Pub. Total Visitor -Serving 0 0 98,900 0 0 37,410 61,800 0 990,704 1,188,81 W.J. Carden Telescopes 1,80 1,80 Temp. Slip rentals 1,410 1,41 Galley caf6 20,000 20,000 Garages 40,704 40,704 Orange Co. Dock 36,000 36,000 Balboa Island Ferry 60,000 60,000 Balboa Pier Conc. 50,000 50,000 Newport Pier Conc. 25,000 25,000 Harbor Bait Barge 3,900 3,90 Balboa Parking Lot 950,000 950,000 Non -Visitor -Serving 2,285,52 0 7,614 0 0 960,486 0 110,000 807,050 4,170,67 Amer. Legion 110,000 110,000 Beacon Bay 650,000 650,000 Balboa Yacht Basin 900,486 900,486 Basin Marine Shipyard 60,000 60,000 Electricity 7,05 7,05 Bayside Yacht Sales 7,614 7,61 Apartments 30,528 30,528 Balboa Bay Club 1,605,00 1,605,00 Petroleum Royalty 750,000 750,000 Sale of gas 50,000 50,000 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 48 FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS AND MODEL NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN UPDATE May 2003 Prepared for the City of Newport Beach Prepared by Applied Development Economics, Inc. 2029 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94704 (510) 548-5912 1029 J Street, Suite 310, Sacramento. CA 95814 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................1 APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS ......................... .... .......... ....... ..... .... .... ........ ..............I ...... I ..... I .... ...2 Existing Land Uses.......................................................................................................................3 BudgetOverview..........................................................................................................................4 Budget Adjustments......................................................................................................5 Revenue and Cost Calculations by Land Use...........................................................................7 MajorRevenues...............................................................................................................7 Other Revenues.............................................................................................................12 MajorCost Categories..................................................................................................13 Capital Improvement Program...................................................................................18 PerCapita Costs and Revenues...................................................................................19 ANALYSIS OF FISCAL IMPACTS BY LAND USE TYPE.........................................................21 Citywide Summary......................................................................................................................21 Revenues..................................................................................................... 21 Costs 22 .......................................................................................................... Hospitality and Visitor Sector...................................................................................................26 Marine Industry ...........................................................................................................................27 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF NEWPORT COAST FISCAL IMPACTS 33 Introduction............................................................................................................33 Project Description..................................................................................................34 FireProtection Services................................................................................35 Police Services.............................................................................................35 Summary of Fiscal Impact........................................................................................36 GENERALPLAN BUILDOUT.........................................................................................41 APPENDIX Appendix A: Land Use Definitions by SIC and NAICS....................................................45 Appendix B: Distribution of Use of Property Revenues By Land Use .............................47 LIST OF TABLES 1. Land Use Descriptions..........................................................................................................................4 2.2002-03 Budget Revenues Included in Fiscal Analysis.....................................................................6 3. 2002-03 Budget Expenditures Included in Fiscal Analysis..............................................................7 4. Assessed Value and Property Tax Estimates by Land Use..............................................................8 5. Sales Tax Revenues by Land Use.........................................................................................................9 6. Transient Occupancy Tax by Lodging Type.................................................................. .................. 11 7. Business License Revenue by Land Use...........................................................................................12 8. Police Department Budget 2002-2003..............................................................................................14 9. Police Department Cost Analysis......................................................................................................15 10. Analysis of Summer Peak Demand for Police Services...............................................................16 11.2002-03 CIP Expenditures Included in Fiscal Analysis...............................................................19 12. Unit Costs and Revenues..................................................................................................................20 13. Summary of Fiscal Analysis..............................................................................................................24 14. Retail Employment and Fiscal Impacts...........................................................................26 15. Fiscal Impact of Visitors to Newport Beach.................................................................................28 16. Newport Coast Development: Year 2000 and 2025.........................................................23 17. Newport Coast Impact Year 2000.................................................................................. 37 18. Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout..........................................................................39 19 Growth Rates, 2002 — Buildout.......................................................................................41 20 Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout..............................................................43 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Sales Tax Revenue by Land Use Type...............................................................................22 2. Gross Revenues by Land Use...........................................................................................22 3. Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach......................................................27 INTRODUCTION This report discusses how various land uses and business types contribute to the revenues and costs for city government. The focus of this discussion is on the existing land use mix in Newport Beach, although it also includes an analysis of the future buildout of the existing General Plan. As the General Plan update process moves forward, a similar analysis will be conducted to determine the potential fiscal impact of future land use alternatives. It is important to recognize that the point of this analysis is to understand how the mix of land uses in Newport Beach contributes to the revenues needed for municipal services for both residents as well as businesses. For purposes of the General Plan, the goal of the fiscal analysis is to identify the best mix of land uses to balance the revenues generated with the cost for municipal services in the City. Therefore, the fiscal "performance" of individual land uses should be viewed from an overall citywide perspective. The report is written to provide a detailed explanation of the methodology, assumptions, and data sources used to estimate fiscal impacts for each land use. This analysis is intended to serve as a planning tool for decision makers in the General Plan update process. Based on this analysis, ADE will develop an interactive software program for the City to use in estimating fiscal impacts, not only for General Plan land uses, but also for individual development projects that may be proposed in the future. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 1 APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS City government uses a variety of revenue sources to fund the operation of local services and the construction of public facilities. Some of these revenue sources are more affected by the land use mix in the City than are others. For example, property taxes and sales taxes are directly related to the type of property and the business mix in the City. On the other hand, the City's federal entitlement of Community Development Block Grant funds is affected by the population size of the City but is otherwise not a function of the land use mix in the City. Also, because Newport Beach is a Charter City (as opposed to a "General Law" city) the Newport Beach City Council has the ability to set certain tax rates and fees, such as the business license tax rate or building permit fees. However, the Council has only limited authority to set other tax rates, such as the property tax or the sales tax, or to apply additional taxes or fees, without the consent of a simple majority or a supermajority of electors responding in an election. In considering the effect of existing and future land uses on the City budget, it is important to sort out the types of revenue and costs that are most pertinent. In general, it is most important to isolate the effect of development on revenues which the City has less ability to raise, such as general taxes, than on direct charges for services which can be increased to meet rising costs as necessary. Consequently, the analysis is focused more on services funded by general tax revenues, such as the property tax and the sales tax among others, than on services funded by direct charges such as the water and sewer enterprise funds, building permit and plan check fees, or other fees charged directly to customers at City Hall. At this point, our assumption is that fees charged for specific services are adequate to cover the costs of those services.' At this stage in the process, the fiscal analysis addresses the effect of land use, including related population and'business activity, on municipal operating costs and revenues. In the present report, such costs are primarily estimated on an average basis with only a brief discussion of the marginal costs to serve future development. As we move forward with a projection of the effects of potential future land uses, it ' A more in-depth study of City operations would be necessary to verify this assumption. However, if it is not the case, it is within the authority of the City Council to adjust the fee schedules. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 2 will be important to consider the existing capacity in the city's service system and determine whether ornot the incremental, or marginal, cost of serving new development is the same as the average cost of serving existing development. That analysis will likely depend to some degree on the location of the proposed new development in addition to the type of land use. This chapter begins with an overview of land uses in Newport Beach, followed by a discussion of the City budget to help clarify some of the distinctions between costs and revenues raised above. EXISTING LAND USES Newport Beach's physical setting encompasses about 25 square miles of land, of which approximately three-quarters is developed into a mix of residential (70 percent of developed land) and non-residential (30 percent of developed land) uses. The remaining one quarter of undeveloped land, including the City's coastal beaches, is primarily used for recreation and open space s. Currently, the City is estimated to have about 36,600 dwelling units. Approximately 40 percent of housing units are single-family units and 60 percent are multi -family units. The average assessed valuation for existing housing is $625,000 for single- family units ($814,000 in Newport Coast) and $431,000 for multi -family units. In 2001) the median price of "for sale" housing in Newport Beach was $718,400. D While residential development is treated as a single land -use category for purposes of this fiscal analysis, non-residential uses were split into seven distinct categories: office, retail, light industrial, lodging, marine -related, service commercial, and institutional. Newport Beach businesses were segmented into one of these categories based on their standard industrial classification (SIC) code through an analysis of the City's business license records. Appendix A shows the detailed SIC code definitions for each category, and a general description of the business types included in each category is provided in Table 1 below. z Neapon&vk CmwtCr W", hium Clxibff, November 2001, p. 26. n Ibid. p. 28. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 3 TABLE 1 Land Use Descriptions Land Use Category Description All retail stores (including auto dealerships) and eating and drinking places, Retail except those that are included in one of the categories below Business and professional services, financial institutions, health care services, Office etc. Construction contractors, wholesale distributors, manufacturing, Industrial transportation, public utilities, etc. Primarily includes personal services (e.g. beauty salons, dry cleaners), repair Service Commercial services, entertainment e.. movie theaters), and recreation e.. health clubs Lodging Hotels, motels, B&Bs, vacation rentals, etc. Institutional Schools, churches, social services, membership or anizations, etc. Several detailed business types that would otherwise fall within one of the categories above, but which have a direct relationship with activity along the Marine Newport Beach coast. Examples include yacht building and maintenance, boat dealers and repair services, marinas, equipment manufacturers for marine vessels, sport fishing outfitters, etc. The most significant component of this category is the beaches, which attract Public most of the visitors to Newport Beach. BUDGET OVERVIEW The total budgeted expenditures according to the 2002-2003 budget for the City of Newport Beach are $158.9 million, of which $34.5 million are for Capital Improvement Projects. Estimated General Fund expenditures for the current fiscal year are $94.5 million, while revenues are estimated at $95.5 million (Table 2). The top three revenue categories — property tax ($36.8 million), sales tax ($19.8 million), and transient occupancy tax ($8.3 million) — account for nearly seventy percent of total General Fund revenues. On the expenditure side, Police ($30.6 million), Fire ($20.1 million), and Public Works ($20.3 million) account for three-quarters of all service costs (Table 3). The General Fund also includes about $4 million of appropriations for projects within the City's Capital Improvement Program (CIP), excluding rebudgets." In addition to the General Fund, three other major funds are of importance for the fiscal analysis. The first is the Tidelands Fund (also known as the 'ride and Submerged Lands Fund'), which collects revenue from the use of public property 4 Rebudgeted funds for CIP projects appear in Table 3 as adjustments to expenditures, since the fiscal analysis is intended to match revenues from the current fiscal year with current year expenditures. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 4 that the State of California designates as "tidelands" (i.e. land once underwater or currently below the mean high tide line). The Tidelands Fund has total 2002-03 revenues of about $6.5 million and expenditures of $3 million, including CIP projects but excluding transfers to the General Fund. The Tidelands Fund provides about $3.4 million to the General Fund in 2003-03 to pay for Tidelands -qualified city services in the coastal area. The second fund is the Gas Tax, which is funded from the State based on primarily population in each city. According to State law, these funds must be accounted for separately and used exclusively for repair, construction, and maintenance of the street and highway system. Newport Beach has a total of 2002-03 Gas Tax revenues of approximately $1.5 million. Finally, the Measure M Fund is funded in part from the county sales tax for transportation programs and in part from competitive grants from the countywide pool of Measure M funds. Measure M revenues for 2002-03 are approximately $2.2 million. Of these, however, only the annual "turn back" revenues are included in the fiscal analysis as net revenues. Both the Gas Tax and Measure M funds are used exclusively for projects within the Civ/s CIP. Budget Adjustments Some adjustments were made to the original budget figures, as shown in tables 2 and 3, in order to account for budget items that are not annually recurring. On the revenue side, these include intergovernmental grants (e.g. `competitive' Measure M funds), fees for zoning and building activities, and construction -related permits. On the cost side, the value of development —related fees and permits are deducted from the budgets of the planning and building departments.' These adjustments are made for development -related costs and revenues because they typically occur at the building, planning and construction phase and do not represent an ongoing cost of government services once the buildings are completed. S Adjustment include the following budget accounts: Intergovernmental: 4824-4827,4858, 4862, 4893, 4$96.4898; Charges for service: 5000.5004, 5007, 5023; Licenses and permits: 4610, 4612, 4614, 4616, 4618,4622. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 5 The total estimated General Fund Budget after adjustments (i.e. net revenue) is approximately $92.3 million for 2002-03, with another $9.2 million of revenue in the Tidelands, Gas Tax, and Measure M Funds, for total revenues of $101.5 million. Adjusted General Fund Expenditures are $96.2 million, plus $5.3 million in expenditures within the other three funds included in the analysis. The overall budget figure upon which this analysis is based is approximately $101 million. TABLE 2 2002.03 Budget Revenues Included In Fiscal Analysis REVENUE ADJUSTMENTS NET BASIS General Fund Property Tax $36,880,101 $36,880,101 Sales Tax 19,841,351 19,841,351 Transient Occupancy Tax 8;298,000 8,298,000 Franchises 2;340;000 %S90,'000 Business Licenses 2,365,000 2,365,000 Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu 1,700,000 1,700,000 ptherintergovernmental 1,990,127 426,174, 11563;953 ChargbstforService %51;5;855} 1,,048;300 .8,467l555 Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3,125,250 3,125,250 Licenses/Permits 1,819,860 1,446,200 373,660 Use of Property 5,284, 88: 5,284;288' OthenRevenue 730;435 175,00o 555;435 Interest Income 1,50o,o00 1,500,000 General Fund Subtotal 95,440,267 3,095,674 92,344,593 TidelandvFund LicenseslPermitslFees 1,153,900 1,153;000 Charges for Service 33,500 33,500 Use of Money and Property 5,359,492 5,359,492 State Gas Tax Fund 1,457,000- 1,457,000 MeasuwWFund 2,20%580 1;005,580 1,200,000 Subtotal Other Funds 10,209,072 1,110,580 8,047,492 Source: ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, Ksad yrrrr 2002-03 BudgerDmz d. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 6 TABLE 3 2002.03 Budget Expenditures Included in Fiscal Analysis General Government $9,368,986 $9,368,986 Police 30,132,466 30,132,466 Fire 21,525,002 21,525,002 Public Works [aj 20,389,515 20,389,515 Community Development 4,747,238 2,494,500 2,252,738 Community Services 8,293,665 8,293,665 CIP • Streets 2,366,000 1,061,000 1,305,000 Other CIP Projects 4,766,265 1,873,115 2,895,150 General Fund Subtotal 101,596,546 8,127,868 96,167,931 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 1,282,138 1,282,138 Oil and Gas 351,887 351,887 CIP Projects 1,466,442 400,785 1,065,657 GASTAXPUND 2,274,121 716,354 1,558,387 MEASUREMFUND 2,061,605 1,005,580 1,056,025 Subtotal Other Funds 7,436,793 2,122,699 5,514,094 TOTAL 109,033,339 10,250;567 101,482,025 Source: ADE, Inc, based on Cityof Newlwtt Beach, FLzd)w2002.03 &d6etD&d. [al includes Public Works, General Services and thilides. REVENUE AND COST CALCULATIONS BY LAND USE Major Revenues The major revenue categories of property tax, sales tax, transient occupancy tax (rO'I ) and business license tax were allocated among the various land uses based on actual 2001 data provided by the CityRevenue Division. Each of these revenues and how they were distributed across land uses is described below. Property Tax In general, the City receives about 17 cents of every property tax dollar paid by property owners within the city's boundaries. The distribution of property tax revenue across the various land uses was based on an analysis of assessed valuation (AV) data obtained from the Orange County Assessor. This data set includes over 29,000 records with detailed parcel information such as owner name and address, site address, valuation, and a set of land use codes used by the Orange County Assessor. The analysis involved sorting the data by land use and, in some cases, site address in order to calculate the total assessed valuation by land use and then the local share of APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE the property tax revenue. 6 The results of this analysis are summarized in the table below: TABLE 4 Assessed Valuation And Property Tax Estimates By Land Use Assessed Property Tax % of Land Use Category g ry Valuation Estimate Total (millions) (millions) Residential 15,740 29.31 79.5% Office 1,697 3.16 8.6% Service Commercial. 761 1,A2 31% Ligh8lndusfri'a& 690 1.2& 3.5% Marine Industry 282 0.52 1.4% Lodging 236 0.44 1.2% Institddcndl 206 0.38• 1i0% Retail 192 0:36 1.0% Total 19,803 36.88 100% Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by the City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. Significantly, residential properties — which account for about 70 percent of developed land in Newport Beach - generate nearly eighty percent of the property tax for the City. At under 10 percent of property tax revenue, office development is a distant second. Sales Tax The city receives one cent of every dollar spent within the city s boundaries on taxable products. Taxable transactions occur not only at retail stores, but at a wide variety of commercial locations throughout the city. For example, many taxable business -to -business transactions, in which products are sold to end users rather than to entities with resale permits, occur at office and light industrial locations. Examples of non -retail businesses that generate sales tax revenue in Newport Beach include parts manufacturers for marine vessels, food processing equipment distributors, landscaping product wholesalers, medical equipment suppliers, and software developers. In addition, many service commercial businesses generate sales tax by carrying products related to their service, such as beauty salons that sell shampoos and cosmetics. This category also includes auto rental firms. Large hotels also have 6 For properties within Newport Beach, the City receives approximately 17 percent of the one percent property tax levy. DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 8 ancillary retail shops and food services that generate sales tax revenue. The marine category includes a number of sales tax generating businesses that are both retail and industrial in nature, including sales of new and used boats, marine fuels, and manufacturing and sales of boat parts. Finally, sales tax revenue that is attributed to the residential category is the result of taxable sales that occur at home -based businesses in Newport Beach! The sales tax revenue that accrues to the city was distributed across the various land uses through an analysis of 2001 sales tax data provided by the Revenue Division! TABLE 5 Sales Tax Revenue By Land Use Estimated Sales %of Land Use Category Tax Revenue Total (t,000s1 Retail 13,922,674 70.2% Wes 1,938,437 9.8% Service Commercial 1,439,043 7.2% Marine industry 978,688 4.9% Light Industrial 892,789 4.5% Lodging 594,391 3.0% Residential 76,329 0.4% Institutional 0 0.0% Total 19,841,351 100% Source: AM Ina, based on data provided by the City of Newpon Beads Revenue Division. Table 5 displays the results of the analysis of this important revenue source. Over 70 percent of Newport Beach's sales tax revenue is derived from retail establishments, and nearly 10 percent are from taxable transactions at office -based businesses. The remaining 20 percent is divided into the other categories as shown. 7 Sales taxes are distributed to cities based on the location of the point of sale, not the residency of the buyer. Thus, Newport Beach gets a portion of all the sales generated by Fashion Island and other retail businesses in the City, whether or not the customers are Newport Beach residents. Conversely, if residents shop outside the City, Newport Beach receives none of that sales tax. For this reason, residential uses generate sales tax revenue indirectly, through resident spending at Newport Beach businesses, as well as directly, through taxable sales at home -based businesses. B Annual audit report of Newport Beach sales tax prepared byNMIA. All Newport Beach businesses that generate sales tax are assigned a State Board of Equalization (BOB) business code, which was the primary basis for the sales tax analysis. The data was cross-referenced with the other primary data sourced used in the fiscal analysis for consistency. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 9 It is important to note that the figures in Table 5 reflect the direct impact of each type of business, and not the indirect impact of their employees. For example, in the office category, the figures include only the actual sales taxes generated by office - based businesses. In addition, office employees spend money at retail establishments, which could be considered an indirect benefit of office development in Newport Beach. However, the analysis treats this revenue as the direct impact of the retail businesses, not the office businesses. Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) The TOT, also known as the Hotel Bed Tax, accrues to the City at the rate of 9 percent of room charges (with an additional 1 percent going to the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau). The City separates TOT into two land use categories: lodging and residential. Newport Beach has several major hotels such as the Four Seasons and the Hyatt Newporter, as well as numerous smaller inns and motels. Altogether, these lodging facilities provide a total of about 2,600 guestrooms. In addition, there are approximately 625 seasonal vacation rental properties that also generate TOT if they are rented for less than a month at a time.' A detailed analysis of the Cit/ s 2001 TOT revenue is shown in Table 6 below. For the current 2002-03 budget year, the City's is expecting this revenue source to decline somewhat and has projected revenues of about $7.45 million in TOT from hotels and motels/inns, plus $840,000 from vacation rentals. Business Licenses Total annual business license revenue is approximately $2.4 million according to the 2002-03 budget. Nearly half the business license revenues are derived from residential -based businesses and out of town businesses.10 Business license revenue from home -based businesses is about $358,000 (15 percent of the total), while out- of-town businesses generate about $685,000 (29 percent). Revenues from out-of- town businesses and in -town residential businesses are of particular benefit to the 9 Importantly, "timeshare" units, many of which already exist or are planned for development in the Newport Coast area, are not subject to TOT unless the timeshare operator rents the unit(s) on a nightly basis. 10 "Out of town" businesses are those that provide services in Newport Beach but have no permanent physical or mailing address in the City APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 10 City because such businesses do not carry the same service costs that are associated With commercial locations within the City. The total amount of business license tax revenue from all commercial land uses Within Newport Beach is approximately $1.7 million. These revenues were distributed among the various land uses based on SIC code. The full results of the analysis of the City's business license tax revenues are displayed in Table 7 below. TABLE 6 2001 Transient Occupancy Tax By Lodging Type u.».. Add.,.. Numberof 2001TOT Newport Beach Inn/Best Western 6208 Coast Hwy W 46 Balboainn 105 Main St., Balboa CA 34 Newport Channel Inn 6030 W Coast Hwy 30 Bay Shores Inn 1800 Balboa Blvd. 24 Little Inn by the Bay 2627 Newport Blvd, 18 Portofino Beach Hotel 2306 Ocean Front Way 15 Doryman's Oceanfront Inn 2102 Ocean Front West 10 Marriott Suites 500 Bayview Circle 250 Balboa Bay Club 1221 W Coast Hwy 123 Subtotal 600 $1,786,420 Major Hotels Marriott Hotel 8c Tennis 900 Newport Center Dr. 576 The Sutton Place 4500 Macarthur Blvd 435 Hyatt Newporter 1107 Jamboree Rd. 405 ItadissonHotel 4545 MAcarthur Blvd 535 Four Seasons 690 Newport Center 295 Subtotal 2,040 $ 6,588,259 t;rana rotas z,twu rooms; 'N7px1"rou 625 vac. rentals Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by the City of Newport BeachRevenue Division. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 11 TABLE 7 Business License Revenue By Land Use No. of Business Land Use Category Active License Tax % of Total Businesses Revenue Office 4,055 742,200 30.9% Retail 1,145 240,299 10.0% Service Commercial 553 2,10,064' 8.7% Light Industrial 630 112;668 4:7% Marine Industry 100 26,993 1.1% Institutional 85 18,417 0.8% Lodging 39, 10;585 6A Subtotal 7,l)45 ' 1,718,733 56.60/,' Residential -based 3,388 357,507 14.9% Out-of-town 4,174 684,641 28.5% Total 14;607 $2.4 WioA 100% Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by the City of Newport Beach Revenue Division. Other Revenues All of the other recurring general fund revenues included in Table 13 were calculated based on employment and population factors, with the following exceptions: o Franchise fees were estimated on a per capita basis (not including visitors, however), with the additional assumption that 60 percent of these revenues are generated by business uses and the remainder by residents." This split reflects the typical distribution of utility usage for a city like Newport Beach. ❑ Revenues categorized under "Use of Money or Property" in both the General Fund and the Tidelands Fund were categorized based on the nature of the activity associated with the revenue. A table summarizing each of these revenues is provided in Appendix B. City parking lot revenues were allocated to both public and commercial land uses based on the business types located in the "Franchise fees are paid to the city by private companies that have contracts with the City to provide services such as gas, electricity, cable TV and solid waste disposal. The company that provides towing services for the Police Department also pays a franchise fee; however, these fees are included in the Licenses and Permits category. The 60/40 split between non-residential and residential uses is based on analysis of franchise revenues in other California communities in lieu of specific data pertaining to Newport Beach. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 12 -,ricuuty of each lot, as well as their proximity to visitor -serving public areas such as the beaches. ❑ The Marine category also included an estimate of property tax revenue derived from boats that are moored in Newport Beach marinas. According to data provided by the Revenue Division, there are 3,535 boats from which the City currently receives unsecured property tax revenue. The total assessed valuation of these vessels is approximately $133 million. ❑ Interest income was estimated at irate of 1.6% of all other revenues, based on the ratio of total interest income to all other revenues for the current budget year. Major Cost Categories In general, costs were calculated on a per capita basis as described in the next section, with the following exceptions or refinements: General Government The General Government category, with a total budget amount of approximately $9.4 million, was allocated among the various land uses in proportion to each land use's share of all other expenditures. The underlying assumption of this approach is that general government services are essentially administrative overhead and a direct function of the costs of services provided by the City's various departments. Fire and Lifeguards Eighty percent of Fire Department costs (less the $2.7 million cost for lifeguards, which was wholly ascribed to public uses) were distributed on a per -capita basis, the remaining 20 percent of fire costs were allocated among the various land uses in proportion to their assessed valuation. This approach is based on information provided by the NBFD that indicates that, aside from the lifeguarding function, 80 percent of their activity is associated with responding to EMS calls and 20 percent is for fire fighting and prevention. Police The Police Department is organized into four divisions, in addition to the office of the Chief of Police: Traffic, Patrol, Detective and Support Services (Table 8). In order to estimate the distribution of police activities by land use category, we reviewed police records on the types of services provided both citywide and by APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 13 reporting district. Most of the Police Department reporting districts contain a mix of land uses. Therefore, in order to isolate the services provided to specific types of development, it was necessary to use a modified per -capita approach. Table 9 summarizes this analysis. TABLE 8 Police Department Budget 2003.2003 Division Budget Police Chief $1,387,010 Traffic Division $3,769,036 Patrol Division $12,106,233 Detective Division $5,295,066 Support Services $7,582,531 Total $30,139,876 Source: ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, Fisad yarn 2002.03 BraigerDcvaiL In the left hand column of Table 9, the resident population, the average visitor population, and the number of employees by business type are presented. The employment figures are further allocated to visitor -serving and non -visitor serving business activity. The total average "daytime population" in Newport Beach is 151,732, including all of these resident, visitor and worker groups.12 Of the total daytime population, residents comprise about 50 percent, visitors (on average) are 13 percent, workers serving visitors are four percent and the remaining workers are 33 percent. An important consideration in Newport Beach is the extent to which police services are related to visitor activity and visitor -serving businesses. As shown in Table 9, visitors represent 13 percent of the daytime population on an average basis, but visitorship peaks heavily in the summer months. The change in demand for police services during the summer months may be expected to indicate the effect of visitors on police services overall. Table 10 shows five main types of police activity: calls for service, citations, crimes, arrests, and traffic accidents. The table shows the monthly average for each type of activity for the September to May (non peak) period and,the June to August (peak) period. In every case, there is a measurable peak during the summer months. For example, calls for service are 28 percent higher during the 12 In actuality, some Newport Beach residents commute out of the city to work, but for the purposes of standard fiscal impact methodology, the term "daytime" population includes all residents. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 14 summer months while other citations are more than doubled. This peak effect, when measured against the annual service load, represents about 7 percent of total police activity (and more than 30% of non -vehicle code citations)." TABLE 9 Police Department Cost Analysis Per Capita Per Cap Trafflc Patrol Residential Pop. 75,662 48.4% $1,753,582 $5,939,544 $2,445,043 $4,295,384$14,433,553 47.9% Visitors 19,671 12.6% 216,564 995,136 580,341 759,260 2,551,301 8.5% Employees Visitor Serving 5,456 3.5% 161,216 823,471 480,205 620,652 2,085,545 6.9% Retail 3,317 2.1% 98,013 719,180 419,410 523,930 1,760,533 5.8% Lodging 2,139 1.4% 63,203 104,291 60,795 96,723 325,012 1.1% Non-VlsltorServing 55,423 35.5% 1,637,630 4,348,096 1,789,484 3,294,235 11,069,445 36.7% Office 30,802 19.7% 910,134 1,631,296 671,252 1,361,164 4,573,846 15.2% Retail 7,740 5.0% 228,698 1,822,770 750,352 1,187,088 3,988,908 13.2% Industria4 11,332 7.3% 334,837 600,151 246,953 500,770 1,682,710 5.6% Service Commercial 3,039 1.9% 89,796 160,948 66,227 134,296 451,267 1.5% Marine 1,152 0.7% 34,039 61,011 25,105 50,908 171,063 0.6% Institutional 1,358 0.9% 40,126 71,921 29,594 60,011 201,652 0.7% Total Employment 60,879 39.0% 1,7980846 5,171,567 2,269,689 3,914,887 13,154,990 0 Total 156,212 100.0% $3,769,036 $12,106,233 $5,295,066 $8,969,541$30,139,879 100.0% Total Visitor -Serving 25,127 16.1% $377,780 $1,818,607 $1,060,546 $1,379,912 $4,636,846 15.4% Residential 46.5% 49.1% 46.2% 47.9% 47.9% Visitor -Serving 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 15.4% 15.4% Business (non-Vis.) 43.5% 35.9% 33.9% 36.7% 36.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Applied Development Economics, Inc. Although not nearly in similar numbers, many visitors do come to Newport Beach during off-peak seasons. Business travelers alone represent 21 percent of total visitors to the city. Assuming their trips are more evenly distributed throughout the year, it is likely that visitors represent at least 6-8 percent of the average daytime population during non -peak months. Thus, the impact of visitors appears to represent about 13-15 percent of total police services." This is about the same as the n This calculation measures the additional incremental service load during the three summer months against what the service load would be for 12 months if there were no peak. 14 With the exception of lifeguards, neither the Police Department nor the Fire Department add staff during summer months to handle peak service demands. Existing staff are redistributed to activities APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 15 per capita share that visitors, plus visitor -serving employment, represent of the daytime population. TABLE 10 Analysis Of Summer Peak Demand For Police Services Monthly Averages Calls for Veh. Code Other Total Part 1 and Part Total Time Period Service Citations Citations Citations 2 Crimes [a] Arrests Accidents Sep -May 4,253 1,595 278 5,612 538 306 117 Jun -Aug 5,433 1,854 674 7,208 739 431 150 Peak Effect 27.8% 16.3% 142.3% 28.4% 37.4% 40.70/6 28.5% Peak as Percent of Annual 6.9% 4.1% 31.4% 7.1% 9.3% 10.4% 7.2% Source: ADE, Inc., based on data provided by Newport Beach Police Department [a] As defined by the FBI, Part 1 crimes are the 8 most serious crimes (homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny -theft, auto theft, and arson). Part 2 crimes are all other lesser offenses such as forgery, fraud, embezzlement, vandalism, prostitution, etc. The following sections address the cost estimates for each division. Traffic Division: The Traffic Division includes the parking enforcement, animal control, accident investigations and other moving vehicle violations. (The Patrol Division also issues vehicle code citations and responds to traffic related incidents). Based on the distribution of labor costs for parking enforcement, this function is estimated to require 21 percent of the Traffic Division budget. Parking enforcement records indicate that about 53 percent of this activity occurs in residential neighborhoods and 47 percent in commercial areas, and the parking enforcement costs have been attributed in this analysis accordingly. (parking meter revenue is attributed solely to business and public uses since few meters exist in residential neighborhoods). All animal control costs are attributed to residential land uses, about 11 percent of the Division budget. The remaining budget for the Traffic Division is distributed on the basis of estimated traffic generation in the City. Based on the land use mix in the City and the trip generation rates used in the General Plan Update traffic model, it is estimated that approximately 36 percent of all vehicle trips in the City are generated by that require more attention during the summer. Therefore, the annual averages are suitable indicators of cost impacts on these departments. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE residential uses, and 64 percent by business and public land uses.15 This is clearly an approximate split. There is some overlap between trips from residents to retail stores and employment centers and these figures do not account for through -traffic that is unrelated to land use in Newport Beach. However, the 36/64 percent split provides a reasonable basis for allocating the $2.56 million in non -parking and animal control enforcement costs for the Traffic Division. In the calculations, visitors were limited to 10 percent of total cost for this division, to reflect the lower effect on vehicle citations, as shown in Table 10. Patrol Division: This is the largest division and is responsible for maintaining beat patrols as well as responding to traffic incidents, enforcing traffic laws and responding to most other incidents or calls for service. The costs for this division have generally been allocated on a straight per capita basis, with one exception. Retail businesses on average tend to generate more police activity than do other kinds of businesses. Certain kinds of retail, such as restaurants and bars, generate a disproportionate amount of alcohol -related incidents. Retail shopping centers create more opportunity for burglary and theft. The effect of this activity can be seen in comparing the crime statistics for the Newport Center area and the Airport area. Both areas have approximately the same total employment, but the Newport Center area has three tines as many retail employees and a corresponding 20 percent reduction in other kinds of jobs. Yet the Newport Center area registers twice as many crimes and three times as many arrests as does the Airport Area. On a per - employee basis, the disparity between retail and other kinds of business activity is even greater. Therefore, in the analysis in Table 9, retail businesses are given a weighting of three tines the per capita cost compared to other businesses. Overall, 49 percent of the cost of the division activities is distributed to residences, 15 percent to visitor -serving uses and 36 percent to other business and public uses. Looking at the land area distribution in the City, 52 percent of the area is devoted to residential uses, with 22 percent in business uses and 26 percent in open space. The per capita allocation fairly well represents the geographic coverage of the patrol function of this division. Detective Division: This division is primarily responsible for investigating non - traffic related crimes that occur in the City and also performs a number of crime 1s Trip generation rates were provided by Urban Crossroads, Inc., per a City of Neapott Beach study. ADE prepared the estimates of the distribution of total trips. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 17 prevention and proactive criminal pursuit activities. In terms of the activities shown in Table 10, this division is most involved with investigation of the Part 1 and Part 2 crimes, as well as following up on arrests. Both of these activities show substantial increases during the summer peak months. Based on the peak effect figures in Table 10 and the additional visitor activity during non -peak months, 20 percent of the costs for this division have been allocated to visitor -serving uses, 46 percent to residences and 34 percent to other businesses. As with the Patrol Division costs, retail businesses are assigned a weighting of three compared to other businesses in the per capita cost calculations. Support Activities: The office of the Police Chief includes a number of functions such as community relations, legal affairs and crime prevention. The Support Services Division includes communications, records, fleet maintenance, personnel and a variety of other functions. All of these services and activities represent about 30 percent of the total Police Department budget, or 42.4 percent above the budgets of the other three divisions. The allocation of costs for this division has been treated as an overhead function based on the distribution of costs for the other divisions. Summary: As shown in Table 9, the total police cost allocation by land use works out to about 47 percent for residential, nearly 25 percent for visitor serving uses and less than one-third for other business uses. Capital Improvement Program In addition to providing services, the City also incurs annual `capital outlay' costs associated with the provision of public improvements, on -going projects, and maintenance programs. The Capital Improvement Program (CIP) serves as a plan for meeting the City's long-term capital needs as well as ongoing maintenance activities. Projects in the CIP include the construction, repair, and maintenance of arterial highways and local streets; storm drains; bay and beach improvements; park and facility improvements; water and wastewater system improvements; and planning programs. The FY 2002-03 CIP, including rebudgets of revenue from prior years, totals $34.5 million and consists of over 150 projects.16 Funding for these projects comes from a variety of sources, including the General Fund, enterprise funds, grant programs such as CDBG, State subventions, etc. 16 City of Newport Beach Capital Improvement Program, pg. I-17. DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 18 As shown in Table 11 below, the four funds that are included in the fiscal analysis contribute a total of approximately $13 million to the 2002-03 CIP. However, since the fiscal analysis is intended to match revenues from the current fiscal year with current year's costs (and then distribute these costs and revenues by land use), funds that were rebudgeted from 2001-02 have been subtracted from the CIP appropriations as shown, resulting in approximately $7.9 million in net CIP expenditures for the current fiscal year. TABLE 11 2002.03 GIP Expenditures Included In Fiscal Analysis Total CIP Rebudget Net Appropriation Amount Appropratlon General Fund • Streets 2,366,000 1,061,000 1,305,000 General Fund - Other 4,766,265 1,873,115 2,893,150 Tidelands Fund 1,466,442 400,785 1,065,657 Gas Tax Fund 2,274,721 716,334 1,558,387 Measure M Fund 2,061,605 1,005,580 1,056,025 Total 12,935,033 5,056,814 7,878,219 Source! ADE, Inc., based on City of Newport Beach, RsodYarr2002.03 GrpiW k p mw;t Augnm. These CIP expenditures that relate directly to traffic/circulation improvements — including the street projects under the general fund and all of the Gas Tax and Measure M projects - were distributed across the various land uses on the basis of trip generation data cited in the discussion above regarding police costs for the Traffic Division. For the Tidelands Fund, those CT expenditures that related directly to beach and other public uses (e.g. lifeguard towers replacement or pier repair) were attributed to the `Public' category, while costs relating directly to boating activity (e.g. Balboa Yacht Basin Facilities) were attributed to the `Marine' category. The remaining Tidelands Fund CIP expenditures, as well as CIP spending -under the General Fund that does not relate to traffic/circulation, was distributed across land uses on a per capita basis, as described in the discussion below. Per Capita Costs And Revenues In cases where specific information about the land use origin of certain revenues or costs could not be determined, we developed unit cost and revenue factors to apply to each land use. Unless otherwise indicated, the per capita factors shown in Table 12 are based on the three population segments which generate revenues (via spending on goods and services, payment of fees and fines, etc) while simultaneously exerting demand for City services: residents, employees, and visitors. As described above in the police cost analysis, these groups comprise a total APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 19 constituency of approximately 156,000 persons. This estimate is based on the current population of approximately 76,000, plus a citywide employment estimate of 60,879, and an average of 19,671 daily visitors to Newport Beach." TABLE12 Unit Costs And Revenues UNIT REVENUES Per Capita UNIT COSTS Per Capita Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu $22.47 Public Works $59.98 Other Intergovernmental $10.01 Community Development $14.42 Charges for Service $54.21 Community Services* $109.61 Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures $20.01 Licenses and Permits $2.39 Other Revenue $3.56 Gas Tax Fund* $19.26 Measure M Fund* $15.86 Source: ADE, Inc. 'Based on residential population only. 17 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Newport Beach had a population of 70,032 in 2000. The Resource Allocation Plan indicates a January 1, 2002 population of 75,662, which includes newly annexed Newport Coast and is the figure used in this analysis. The employment figures come from the California Employment Development Department (EDD), adjusted to include an estimate of self-employment (excluding home -based businesses) . The average daily visitors is based on estimates obtained from a 2001 study prepared for the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau, which indicates that there are 7.2 million visitors to Newport Beach annually. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 20 ANALYSIS OF FISCAL IMPACTS BY LAND USE TYPE CITYWIDE SUMMARY Based on the current land use mix in the city of Newport Beach as described above, Table 13 shows the full results of the fiscal impact analysis, which are summarized below. This analysis represents the average, existing cost of services for existing land uses. The incremental cost to serve new development in Newport Beach may be different. Revenues ❑ Residential land uses generate about 80 percent of property tax revenues. ❑ Seventy percent of sales taxes, the second largest city revenue, are generated by retail uses. Table 14 provides a detailed summary of the fiscal impacts of the retail category. Bating and drinking places (i.e. restaurants) generate the most sales tax revenue (over $3 million per year) among the various retail categories shown in Table 14. However, due primarily to the high employment associated with restaurants and the number of police incidents associated with some of these establishments, the net fiscal impact of eating and drinking places is slightly negative. Besides restaurants, the top retail categories in terms of the sales tax revenue produced are automobile dealerships, grocery stores, and department stores. Together, these three categories account for almost half of all the sales taxes, and all three also result in a significant fiscal benefit to the City." ❑ The remaining 30 percent of the City's sales tax revenues are generated by taxable transactions at Newport Beach businesses as follows., office (10% of sales tax revenues); service commercial (70/6); boat and marine equipment sales (50/6); light industrial (40/o); hotels (3e/a); and home -based businesses (less than 10/6) (Figure 1). ❑ The transient occupancy tax equals about eight percent of revenues in the analysis and is primarily generated by lodging facilities in Newport Beach (i.e. is Approximately 65% of the net revenues from the retail land use category is derived from auto dealerships, grocery stores, and department stores (Table 14). APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE2' hotels and motels). However, residential properties which are leased as vacation rentals (of less than 31 days) also generate significant TOT revenue (nearly $1 million annually). o Residential uses generate 40 percent of franchise fees and 100 percent of the motor vehicle in lieu subvention from the state. ❑ Other revenues are generated approximately in proportion to the population and employment supported by each land use. ❑ Overall, residential land uses create about 44 percent of the revenues. Retail uses generate 18 percent followed by office uses at 9.5 percent and lodging at 8.7 percent (Figure 2). FIGURE 1 Sales Tax Revenue by Land Use Type HoteV< U9MI.NwM613 Nomtrba.ed au.liwv 4%� n% awt®MiHM EqulpmeM servlw Commcmlal Bkap , )d11 '1wPbbda) FIGURE 2 Gross Revenues by Land Use Homtba.ed LwNW <L% Mdu.MY 4% Swk�Gmme.4% Mad. b% ,',p/ddantlal' ftwIc s% oma " 10% Costs ❑ Residential uses require about 48 percent of both police and fire department services, which constitute the largest expenditures for the City (followed closely by street and facility maintenance performed by the public works department). ❑ Retail businesses require about one -fifth of total police services, while public land uses, mainly the beaches serving visitors, require about 8 percent. Lodging facilities are estimated to require just one percent of total police services. ❑ The beaches and other visitor -serving public land uses require about 21 percent of fire department costs, primarily because of the City s lifeguard services. Net Impact ❑ In total, residential uses require about 51 percent of municipal services, while generating slightly less than half the revenue needed to operate city government. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 22 This results in an annual net cost for residential uses of about $6.7 million per year for Newport Beach. This is normal for most cities in California, and in fact is probably much worse in many other communities that do not enjoy the higher housing values found in Newport Beach. ❑ The lodging sector generates the largest net revenue, at $7.8 million, followed by the retail sector at about $7.1 million. ❑ The marine industry, including boat sales and manufacturing, generates about $2.7 million in net revenue, followed by service commercial uses at $1.8 million. ❑ Institutional uses essentially break even, contributing very modest net revenues. ❑ Industrial and office uses currently generate a negative impact (-$1.5 million and -$5.1 million, respectively) due to their high employment, which adds to municipal costs. However, these uses also create jobs and income that contribute significantly to the city's economic base, as discussed in more detail below. ❑ Public land uses also reflect a negative impact due to the lack of direct revenues. However, this should be viewed in the context of the overall visitor impact as discussed below and summarized in Table 15. As mentioned at the outset, the key point in this analysis is to identify how the mix of land uses in the City provides a balance of revenues to fund services for residents and businesses alike. Although the analysis indicates that residential, office, and industrial uses create a negative fiscal impact for the City, this one-dimensional view does not tell the whole story. Land uses within the City are linked economically and do not function in isolation of each other. In a broad sense, the city economy is driven by land uses that draw dollars into the community by selling goods and services to the outside world (see Figure 3). This includes hospitality and retail businesses that serve tourists, but office and industrial businesses generate an even larger share of the City's "economic base." These businesses create jobs and incomes for people living in Newport Beach who in turn buy retail goods locally. As Figure 3 illustrates, while retail and visitor -serving businesses generate net tax revenue to help provide services to other land uses, particularly residential, those land uses ultimately generate the tax dollars by patronizing Newport Beach businesses. The primary goal, again, is to maintain a well-balanced land use mix that can support the level of services desired by residents and businesses alike. The following discussion focuses on certain prominent economic sectors in Newport Beach. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 23 TABLE 13 Summary Of Fiscal Analysis Service REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GFNFRASFUND Properly Tax Sales Tax Transient Occupancy Tax Franchise Fees Business Licenses Motor Vehicie•in•Lieu Other Intergovernmental Charges for Service Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures Licenses and Permits Use of Property Other Revenue Interest Income SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND TIDELANDS FUND Llcenses,vermItt dnd'Feei; ChargesforServica Use of Money and Property STATE GAS TAX FUND MEASURE M FUND 36,879,169 29,311,725 3,160,525 357,210 1,284,735 439,521 524,860 1,416,413 384,180 0 19,841,351 76,329 1,938,43713,922,674 892,789 594,391 978,688 1,438,043 0 0 8,298,0000 840,000 • -0 1 0 - 0, 7;458,C0! "" O' '0' 0 0 2,347,625 963,878 723,649 239,587 266,229' 0: "27;065 95313, 31;904 0 2,377,807 357,507 742,200 240,299 112,668 10,585 26,993 210,064 18,417 12,807 1,700,000 1,700,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,570493 763;778 307,762 101,895 113,225 21,372' 111;510 40;536 13,569' 196,545 8,501,340 4,135,248 1,666,287 551,678 613,024 115;7.13 62;319- 219,470 73,,463 1,064,136 3,137,719 1,526,259 615,002 203,616 226,258 42,708 23,001 81,003 27,114 392,757 375,151 182,482 73,531 24,345 27,052 5,106 2,750 9,685 3,242 46,959 5,284,288 1,027,072 407;215 675,556 154,480, 53;747, 991;056, 51;353' 91;268. 1,832,541 73g,651 271,254 109;30L 36jiN3 40;212 '7,5* 17,9,088; 14;396 4;819, .69,803 1,420,769 646,827 153,141 257,015 58,634 137,501 44,436 56,207 10,184 56,824 92,466,063 41,802,359 9,897,050 16,610,063 3,789,305 8,886,234 2,871,767 3,632,494 658,160 3,672,373 1;153;000 .. 0 , , ,d' :520,000 �0 0 „633;00d. 0 0 0 33,500 0 '0• - 0 •0 '0. " 33;500- 0 0 '0 5,359,492 2,285,528 0 106,514 0 6' 997,896 61,800 110,000 1,797,754 1,472,496 1,472,496 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,200,000 4,616 117;736 842,040 53,996" 35,949 , 5919,1 " 86,972, 0 110,000 •0 9,218,488 3J62,640 1'17.,236 1,468,554 ., 53,996c '35,949 "p,723;587 " „ 148,7i2 - - 3J97,754 11,684,551 45,565,00010,014,287 18,078,617 3,843,301 8,922,183 4,595,353 3,781,257 768,160 5,470,127 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 24 TABLE 13 (continued) Summary Of Fiscal Analysis Service OenersiGovemment 9,375,524 4,992,066 1,398,235 935,033 515,871 100,576 57,172 17%015 64,582 1,132,973 Police 30,139,845 14,433,553 4,573,846 5,749,441 1,682,710 325,012 171,063 451,267 201,652 2551,301 Fire 21,582,766 10,317,648 3,297,912 1,010,002 1,226,195 252,191 166.345 540,136 171,299 4,591,952 PublloWorke 20,389,453 9,876,089 4,012,349 1,328,418 1,416,136 279.632 350,063 528,475 176,897 2,562,396 Community Development 2,252,731 1,091,161 443,305 146XO 163,091 30,785 16,580 58,399 19,544 283,107 Community Servkes 8,293,639 8,293,639 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP- Streets 1,305,000 475,020 224,460 506,340 13,050 27,405 6,525 32,62S 6,525 13,050 OtherCIPProlects 2,893,141 1,40058 569,328 188,495 209,455 39,536 21,291 Y4,987 25,101 363,599 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 96,232,099 50,880,533 14,519,435 9,873,499 5,286,508 1,054,233 589,040 1,864,894 665,590 11,498,367 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources Division 1,282,138 0 0 0 0 0 1,282,139 0 0 0 oil and Gas 351,887 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 351,887 CIP 1,065,655 404,495 152,146 50,373 55,974 10,566 40,690 20,039 6,708 524,664 STATEGASTAXFUND 1,558,388 56703 268,043 604,654 15,584 32,726 7,792 38,960 7,792 15,584 MEASURE M FUND 1,056,024 384,393 181,636 409,737 10,560 22,177 5,280 26,401 5,280 10,560 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 5,314,092 1,356,141 6D1,825 1,064,764 92,118 65,469 1,335,900 85,400 19,760 702,695 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 101,546,191 52,236,674 15,122,260 10,938,263 5,968,626 1,119,701 1,924,940 1,950,294 685,370 12,201,063 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 25 TABLE 14 Retail Employment And Fiscal Impacts NAICS Description No. of percent Em Is Sales Tax percent Revenue Other Revenue Costs Net percent Revenue 4411 Automobile Dealers 613 5.5% 2,345,749 16.8% 219,505 619,895 1,945,359 29.0% 4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 207 1.8% 616,017 4.4% 74,170 209,461 480,726 7.2% 442' Furniture•and Home Fdrnishings Stores , A `362`002 5.5% 235 2:L°/d 3.7°� k 84,758 T. 2 _ _ »148.�.._ 1.3% .�620,694' 174,080 1.3%u 53,159 150,123 _ y4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores 77,116 1.2% 4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers 67 0.6% 59,919 0.4% 23,867 67,402 16,3B5 0.2% 4442 tawny&Garden Equlpment,nd5UPplles Stores �. ,25 »� 0,2%, 164,727 1.2°/u 9/0411 25;531m 1481237 2.2% 4451 Grocety,Stores -786 7Y% 1,828;051 1,11% 281;343 794;528 1,31q;d66 d9:6°d 4452 Specialty Food Stores 99 �A0.9% _. 69,680 0.5% 35,439 100,082 5,037 0.1% 4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 24 0.2% 68,566 0.5% 8,679 24,510 52,735 0.8% 4461 ., .,.......a.... •HealUt and,PersonaCCareStores - , 40[526 Ot6Mo 4Y9 3,8% 314,269 ,2,3% 150,074 423;816 g471 Gasolineaations 115 1.0% SOO,b11' �3:6% _41,225' 116;422 ,'424;814 ;, 6.3 °%d 4481 Clothing Stores 574 6.2%..� 700,350 5.0% 205,402 580,067 325,685 4.9% 4482 Shoe Stores 21 0.2% 58,350 0.4% 7,594 21,446 44,498 0.7% 448$ Jewelry, Luggage tand'LealherGobds Stores 130' 4.2% 84,(97 4,3% 46, 449 131,741 -99;606 "W1S% 4511 • Spor8pg,Goods,.Hobby,, andMusicakI�nshument Stores• I 89� �0:8% 185,618 1.3%' 31,823 _ ',89,869 ; _ 128;571 ii9°i° 88 6.8% 112,427 0.8% .. 31,461 88,848 55,040 0.8% 4512 Book, Periodical, and Music Stores y 4521 Department Stores and Other General Merchandise 1,295 11.7% 1,989,761 14.3% 463,601 1,309,235 1,144,126 17.1% 4531 Florists-' „ n •� ,t 59•�,; 0.5% :40j504 - .0.3°J' •20}974 " 59,232 -•'7,296 "'0,0^/a g532 Office Supplles, Stationary, and.GiR Stores' _ _ _ ' 1.333% 104;900 '0.8% 51,712 146;038 10;574 0.2% 4533 Used Merchandise Stores �s144 24 0.2010 26,120 0.2% 8,679 24,510 10,289 0.2% 4539 Other Miscellaneous Retailers 194 1.0% 655,425 4.6% 69,412 196,023 528,814 8.0% 722 _ Eabng and Drinking,Places_, �• �� 5,772:, 52,2% "3;46,259 � 23.2%, 2;00,1038 58,37;432 =544L135 _71i' °/6 Total 11,057 100.0% 13,922,674100.0% 3,959,774 111826251 6,699,823 100.0% Source: California Economic Development Department, California Board of Equalization, and Applied Development Economics APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 26 Figure 3 Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport beach ' - ON i� w0 I ' i MYKhneNawya4�aatN yroduNtaM aaWkaa It Net Tax DODars Wm-boreaminys ► -Public BrAches from�busineiies Other outside Newport Beachindustries xw R N.tT.k ooN.n� mtome lorlarYka $* s s� low N Belch into"» Households Into" Local rurth..u)QWe 1 Naktak DOOM I" I ro's«rkoe lWyakoaws Iwswvku 4-1 swinooll to e61910"1 rotck�aw —► �`"' anaVlMlorsPWANO APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE27 TABLE 15 Fiscal Impact Of Visitors In Newport Beach REVENUES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GFNFRALFUNO Property Tax Sales Tax Transient Occupancy Tax Franchise Fees Business Licenses Motor Vehicle -in -Lieu Other Intergovernmental Charges for Service Fines, PenalUes,and Forfeitures Licenses and Permits Use of property Other Revenue Interest Income SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Permits, and Fees Charges for Service Use of Money and Property STATEGASTAXTUND MEASURE M FUND 1,273,612 726,928 0 107,163 0 439,521 0 0 0 0 4,771,193 0 0 4,176,902 0 594,391 0 0 0 0 8,298,000 840,000 0 0 Or11458,000• 0 0 0 0 79,757 7,881 0 71;876 0 0 0 0 0 0 89,078 0 0 72,090 0 10,585 0 0 0 6,403 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 248,486 0 0 30;568 0 21;372 .0 0 0 196,,545 079;163 33;810 0 165;503 '0• 1"15,71" .• " 10 0 0 1,064,136 509,029 12,479 0 61,085 0 42,708 0 0 0 392,757 5%368 0 0 7,303 0 5,106 0 0 0 46,959 2,490,233 0 0 667,55$; 4. 5Y3' - f20,036; 51,353 0. 1;59r•5'41 90,467 2,218 "0 10,856 10' Vo" . "' 0. .0 0 '69,803 303,149 25,513 0 84,411 0 137,501 1,887 807 0 53,030 19,591,535 1,648,829 0 5,455,215 0 8,886,234 121,923 52,160 0 3,427,175 520,000 0 0 520;000 0 0 0 0' 0 0 33,500 0 0 .0 • . '0,. 0; 33;500,, 61 0 0 1,188,814 0 0 98,900 0 0 37,410 61,800 0 990,704 12,015 P.,"0 ; ,b' '. :0, , ', t0 ,, 0, 0 ,. 0 288,561 _ 0 052,6 12-0, . 35,949- " : ',' 0. 0 0 0 TOTAL REVENUE er,bu,Yiv 1,bbV,BYY V O,JJdb,/</ v bsk,ta./ vc,wJ a APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 28 TABLE 15 (continued) Fiscal Impact W Visitors In Newport Beach EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retell Industrial Lodging Marine Service Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND GeneralGoYemment 1,584,400 66,292 0 284,559 0 100,576 0 0 0 1,132,973 Polk# 4,926,517 288,671 0 1,76D,533 0 325.012 0 0 0 2,551,301 Flrs 5,286,946 137,0D6 0 305,701 0 252,287 0 0 0 4,591,952 Pubk Works 3,320.967 81,414 0 398,525 0 278,632 0 0 0 2,562,396 CommunNyDev*Wat 366,917 81995 0 44,031 0 30,785 0 0 0 283,107 CommunHyServk#s 68,369 68,369 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP•Strae6 204,129 11,772 0 151,902 0 27,405 0 0 0 13,050 oft CIPPM*h 11,552 0 56,548 0 39,536 0 0 0 363,589 SUATOTALGENERALFUND 15,553,117 650,747 0 2,103,349 0 98"1 0 0 0 11,121,729 TIDELANDSFUND HarborResoumnDiviskn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ON and Gas 351,887 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 351,887 CIP 353,429 3,087 0 15,112 0 101566 0 0 0 324,664 STATEGASTAXFUND 243,763 14,057 0 181,396 0 32,726 0 0 0 15,584 MEASUREMFUND 165,184 9,526 0 122,921 0 22,177 0 0 0 10,560 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 1.114.263 26,670 0 319.429 0 6SA69 0 0 0 702.695 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 29 HOSPITALITY AND VISITOR SECTOR According to a recent report presented by the Newport Beach Conference and Visitors Bureau, the city attracts about 7.18 million visitors per year, of which 81 percent are here on leisure trips." Of this number, 86 percent are day visitors, 7 percent stay in local hotels and the balance stay in private homes. About 64% of the visitors reported visiting the beaches during their stay. This would amount to about 4.6 million visitors, or an annual average of 12,500 per day. During the peak summer season, this average figure climbs to 100,000. Non -beach goers likely include many business travelers and other Southern California residents coming to Newport Beach to shop. From an economic standpoint, visitors bring substantial income to Newport Beach. Visitors spend an estimated $1 billion in the city each year, of which about $449 million are retail purchases and $83 million are lodging expenses. These two categories of spending alone generated about $4.8 million in sales taxes and $8.3 million in Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) for the City budget in 2001. Visitors generate other revenues as well, including indirect business license and property taxes, revenues from use of public property, and others. Table 15 summarizes the comprehensive revenues and cost impact on local government by visitors to Newport Beach. Overall visitors generate about $21.6 million per year against $16.7 million in service costs. The service costs include $4.9 million in police services, $2.7 million for beach lifeguards included in the fire department budget, as well as other emergency medical calls made by the fire department. The net positive fiscal impact of visitor business activity in Newport Beach, then is about $4.9 million per year, not counting the net fiscal benefit of the marine industry, discussed below. These are revenues that contribute toward City services provided to residents and businesses in the community. 19 CIC Research, Inc. l3a of V:sitm to NeuµM Beads FY2001. November 16, 2001. For purposes of the study, visitors were defined as persons who lived outside of Newport Beach and were not in the City for purposes of daily employment. About 18 percent of the survey respondents live in Orange or Los Angeles counties. An additional 15 percent live in Riverside or San Bernardino counties. Overall, about 8 percent listed shopping as the main purpose of their trip to Newport Beach. Although this is not broken down by place of origin, it is likely that many of the visitors from elsewhere in Southern California come to Newport Beach solely for shopping and would not be considered 'tourists" in the commonly understood meaning of that term. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 30 MARINE INDUSTRY As noted above, marine industries in Newport Beach, which include marina slip rentals, boat sales, chartered vessels for events and sport fishing, boat repair, and boat maintenance and manufacturing, account for over 1,000 jobs and generate nearly $2.7 million in net revenues This positive fiscal result is largely due to property tax derived from boats moored in Newport Beach marinas, sales tax generation among boat dealers and other marina -related businesses, a marine chatter fee, and lease income from coastal property owned by the State of California but that the City operates as the State's trustee. For purposes of the fiscal analysis we have included the City's Harbor Resources Division in the costs associated with this industry. However, as noted above, there is significant overlap between the marine industry and the hospitality industry. The marine industries that manufacture, sell, and service the boats have undergone a significant transformation in the past twentyyears. There are issues today about the continued viability of the marine industry in Newport Beach that should be recognized in the general plan update process. Twentyyears ago, there were five to six major boat manufacturers in Southern California, and a number of smaller outfits. Since that time, all of the major manufacturers have left California, mostly to Florida. While a few of the smaller manufacturers remain, others have moved inland to Riverside County. This has largely been due to increased environmental regulation in California affecting fiberglass manufacturing processes, as well as real estate price inflation in coastal commumnes. There has been a consolidation among boat supply and servicing companies as well. As costs have risen, fewer firms are now serving the demand for specialty boat parts, and boat repair and servicing. Those that do not have to be on the water have moved to inland locations. Some have found locations in the West Newport industrial areas, but many have gone further inland to the Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Long Beach industrial areas, as well as locations in Riverside and San Diego counties and Mexico. Those businesses still in the industry report very strong demand for their goods and services. Although the total number of slips in Southern California is not growing dramatically, there is a lot of "move up" sales activity as existing boaters purchase larger and more expensive boats that require a greater level of support and servicing. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 31 Businesses throughout the industry have expressed concern about the real estate pressure on their locations near the water. This is an issue that continues to affect businesses leasing space, particularly in the Cannery and Mariner's Mile areas of town. As noted above, many businesses have moved inland and service boats in the harbor from more remote locations. If this issue reduces the availability of boat services in Newport Beach sufficiently, it may cause the consumer market in *boats to shift as well to other locations. Currently, the city realizes significant sales and property tax revenues from boats and related industries. The indirect benefit of the boating industry could also be improved by increasing access for visiting boats to dock and launch facilities in Newport Harbor. This issue is complicated by the fact that over 90% of the harbor frontage is in private ownership. This leaves little opportunity for the City to increase the availability of public facilities. However, if private entrepreneurs could add to the available facilities, it would help increase the capture of visitor spending in Newport Beach on restaurants and other retail goods and services. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 32 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF NEWPORT COAST FISCAL IMPACTS INTRODUCTION This chapter demonstrates how the fiscal model can be used to analyze future development in the City by presentingan example of existing and projected development in the Newport Coast area. The analysis primarily illustrates the distinction between marginal service costs and average service costs, which will be important in considering the impacts of future development in other areas of the City as well. Marginal costs represent the actual incremental costs of providing services to a new proposed development. In contrast, an average cost approach would treat the proposed development the same as existing development in the City and assume that the costs to serve it are similar on a per capita basis as the costs to serve all other development in the City. The analysis in the previous chapter is done on an average cost basis, because the intent is to show the levels of cost the City incurs to provide for the existing residents and businesses. The true marginal costs, on the other hand, can be either higher or lower than the average depending on the levels of available service capacity. This can be most easily illustrated with fire services, as the Newport Coast analysis shows. If the existing fire stations in the City can serve a proposed development, then the incremental cost of providing service is likely to be lower than the average since existing facilities, equipment and manpower can be used. If a new station is needed, then the marginal cost of that is likely to be higher than the average unless the development is so large that it supports the need for a fire station all by itself. As the City considers future development options in the General plan Update process, the location of the development and the status of existing services at those locations will play a role in the fiscal impact analysis. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The land use data for the analysis is taken from the traffic model database for the year 2000 and the projection for the year 2025. The fiscal analysis evaluates the year 2000 as APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 33 the existing land use case and the year 2025 as full buildout of the area. As shown in Table 16, bddout is about double the development levels in the year 2000. The traffic model tracks non-residential development in terms of three employment categories: retail, services and other. It was necessary for us to make assumptions about the more specific business types this would entail in Newport Coast, as shown in the table. The assessed value estimates for both scenarios are based on residential unit values of $815,000 for single-family units and $600,000 for the condominiums. These values are based on a review of property tax data in the Newport Coast area, and are higher than the values obtained for the City of Newport Beach as a whole. TABLE 16 Newport Coast Development: Year 2000 and 2025 Land Use Units Year 2000 Population Assessed Value Units Year2025 Population Assessed Value RESIDENTIAL Single Family 1,264 3,001 $1,030,160,000 3,063 7,378 $2,496,345,000 Condominium 1,136 2,697 $681,600,000 1,763 4,223 $1,057,800,000 Apartment 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 High Density 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Total Residential 2,400 5,699 $1,711,760,000 4,826 11,601 $3,554,145,000 NON-RESIDENTIAL Sq. Ft. Employment Sq. Ft. Employment Office 15,000 50 $1,995,000 45,000 150 $5,985,000 Retail 68,600 196 $6,311,200 68,600 196 $6,311,200 Industrial 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Lodging 150,000 250 $15,600,000 297,600 496 $30,950,400 Marine 0 0 $0 0 0 $0 Service Commercial 835,000 835 $100,200,000 1,329,000 1,329 $159,480,000 Institutional 100,000 100 $7,200,000 150,000 150 $10,800,000 Total Non -Residential 1,168,600 1,431 $131,306,200 1,890,200 2,321 $213,526,600 COST ANALYSIS At the time of the annexation, City departments made estimates of expected service costs, both for the initial development levels and for ultimate buildout. In some cases the full service cost for buildout was funded initially, and in other cases the costs were deferred until further development occurs. This situation raises the opportunity to consider both the marginal cost of the initial annexation and the average cost of serving the area at full buildout. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 34 Fire Protection Services Newport Coast has an existing fire station, designated No. 8 by the City, which was in place at the time of annexation. At that time, the City estimated the cost of operating the station at $1.39 million per year!' This is less than the average cost of operating other stations in Newport Beach, estimated at about $2 million, but more than the incremental per capita cost of adding the amount of development in Newport Coast in 2000. Since the City assumed operation of the station, we have shown $1,39 million as the cost of fire protection services in 2000 in Table 17. As Newport Coast develops further, the City's plan is to move the existing Station No. 5 in Corona del Mar further south to obtain better response times to Newport Coast as well as CdK Thus, at buildout the Citywill serve Newport Coast from two stations. However, based on the amount of development at buildout and the fact that Station No. 8 would also serve development west of Newport Coast, the net cost effect would be approximately equal to the cost of one full station. This is estimated by the fiscal model at nearly $1.9 million (Table 18), not including the cost of moving Station No. 5. Therefore, the marginal cost of the initial annexation —at $1.39 million —was higher than the average per capita cost would have been but, conversely, the marginal cost of completing buildout of the area —at $487,000—is much less than the average cost. Police Services In the case of police services, part of the departmental expansion needed to serve full buildout of the Newport Coast area was made at the time of annexation, and part was deferred until a later time. Specifically, the detective division received the entire complement of personnel needed to serve full development of the area", while the patrol and traffic divisions received an incremental increase that reflected immediate service demands at the time of annexation!' In estimating the costs of service, the full detective division cost —estimated at 25 percent of the total police services cost —was included in Table 17, along with the incremental cost of the traffic and patrol division as estimated by the fiscal model. This results in a 20 Terry, Ulmmsiti, Fiscal/Information Services Manager, Newport Beach Fire and Marine Department. 21 Captain Tim Newman, Detective Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department 22 Captain Paul Henisey, Traffic and Patrol Division Commander, Newport Beach Police Department. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 35 slightly higher cost for police services in Table 17, reflecting the year 2000, than would be commensurate with the amount of development alone. As with the fire services, the net increase at full buildout is accordingly less than it would be otherwise, estimated at $944,000 compared to nearly $1.7 million to serve about the same amount of development currently. SUMMARY OF FISCAL IMPACT Overall, the analysis suggests that the year 2000 development generates about $770,000 per year in net revenues, while doubling the development to achieve full buildout would add another $1.1 million per year. Because the marginal costs of the annexation were higher than the average cost, the second half of buildout of the area generates 40 percent more in net revenue for the City than does the first half. Overall, Newport Coast does very well for the City —including the residential land uses at buildout—primarily because of the higher property values obtained in the area. APf TABLE 17 Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Revenues Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine C onworew Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax Sales Tan Transient Occupancy Tax Franchise Fees Business Licenses Motor Vehicle -In -Lieu Otherintergovemmental Charges forService Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures licenses and Permits Use of Property Other Revenue tnterestlncome SUSTOTALGENERAL FUND TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Pemits, and Fees Charges forService Use otMoney and Propedy GAS TAX MEASURE M SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS $3,133,213 S2,909,992 S3,392 $10,729 $0 $26,520 $0 S170,340 512,240 SO 72DIM 5,749 3,147 246,798 0 69,471 0 395,119 0 0 1,046,003 0 0 0 0 1,046,003 0 0 0 0 105,712 72,005 1,178 4;617 0 5,889 0 19,668 2,355 0 55,591 0 1,942 7,614 0 9,712 0 32,438 3,885 0 128,042 128,042 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71,381 57,054 501 1,%Z 0 Z503 0 9,360 1,001 0 386,471 308,903 2,710 1%624 0 13,551 0 45,262 5,421 0 147,641 114,012 1,000 3,921 0 5,002 0 16,705 21001 0 17,054 13,631 120 469 0 598 0 1,997 239 0 24LI83 192,775 1,691 6,630 0 8,457 0 28,246 3,383 0 25,351 20,263 178 697 0 889 0 2,%9 356 0 112 90 1 3 0 4 0 13 2 0 6,073,036 3,822,516 15,859 294,%5 0 1,188,598 0 721,117 30,882 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 137,343 109,777 963 3,776 0 4,816 0 16,085 1,926 0 54,770 43,777 384 1,506 0 1,920 0 6,414 768 0 192,112 153,554 1,347 5,291 0 6,736 0 22,499 2,695 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE37 TABLE 17 (continued) Newport Coast Impact Year 2000 Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine ou"'ue commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND General Government 452,745 375,990 2,272 16,979 0 11,153 0 41,590 4,761 0 Police 1,688,017 1;368,598 11,137 101,916 0 47,331 0 142,330 16,705 0 Fire 1,390,000 1,124,915 7,764 28,033 0 34,891 0 176,110 18,287 0 Public Works 036,607 743,827 6;526 25;583 6 32,631 '6 108,988 13,052 0 Community Development 102,818 82,182 721 2,827 0 3,605 6 12,042 1,442 0 Community'Services 6-14,667 624,667 0 0 0 0_ 0 0 0 0 CIP Streets 57,765 35,778 364 8,976 0 3,203 0 8,964 480 0 OtherqjP Projects 132;648 105,545 926 3,630 0 4,630 O. 15,465 1,852 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 5,378,668 4,461,500 29,711 187,943 0 137,444 0 505,489 56,581 0 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 68,981 42,725 435 10,718 0 3,825 0 10,705 574 0 MEASURE M 46,745 28,952 295 7,263 0 2,592 0 7,254 389 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 115,726 71,677 730 17,981 0 6,417 0 17,959 963 0 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 5,494,394 4,533,177 30,441 205,925 0 143,861 0 523,447 57,543 0 NET(COST)IREVENUE $770,754 ($557,107) ($13,234) $93,421 $0 $1,051,473 $0 $220,169 ($23,967) $0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 38 TABLE 18 Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Revenues Total Residerdial Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine SwkeCommerciat Institutional Public GENERALFUND Property Tax $6,405.042 $6,042,047 $10,175 $10,729 $0 $52,616 $0 $27I,116 $18,360 $0 Sates Tax 1,034,648 11,703 9,440 246,798 0 137,830 0 629,,878 0 O Transient Occupancy Tax 1,046,003 0 0 0 0 1,046,00-1 0 0 0 0 Franchise Fees 201,251 146,580 3,533 4,617 0 11,683 0 31,304 3,533 0 Business Licenses 90,165 0 5,827 7,614 0 19,268 0 51,628 5,827 0 Motor Vehide a4Aeu 260.655 260,655 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Intergovernmental 139,383 116,146 11502 1,962 0 4,%6 0 13,306 1,502 0 ChaigesforSerwice 754,648 628,837 8,131 10,624 0 26,886 0 72,039 8,131 0 Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures 278,530 232,095 3,001 31921 0 9,923 0 26,589 31001 0 Licenses and Permits 33,301 27,750 359 469 0 1,186 0 31179 359 0 Use ofRoperty 470,948 392.434 5,074 6,630 0 16,778 0 44,957 5,074 0 Other Revenue 49,502 4I,249 $33 697 0 1,764 0 4,725 533 0 Interestlnoane 169,175 124,154 748 4,622 0 20,886 0 18,038 728 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 10,933,252 8,023,650 48,322 298,693 0 1,349,739 0 1,165,759 47,048 0 TIDELANDS FUND Licenses, Permits, and Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chagesfor Service 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Use of Money and Pmperty 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 89,117 89,117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MEASURE M 106,947 89,117 L152 1,506 0 3,810 0 10,209 1,152 0 SUBTOTALOTNERFUNDS 1*064 178,7M 1,152 I506 0 3,310 0 ig209 1,152 0 TOTALREVENUE 11,129,316 8,701 W 49,475 300,199 0 1,353,599 0 1,175,%9 48,200 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE39 TABLE 18 (continued) Newport Coast Impact at Full Buildout Expenditures Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Service Institutional Public Commercial GENERAL FUND General Government 884,666 765,406 6,817 16,979 0 22,127 0 66,196 7,142 0 Police 2,632,223 2,213,048 22,274 101,916 0 .75,365 0 197.,346 22,274 0 Fire 1,877,786 1,581,931 16,089 19,365 0 47,820 0 193,632 18,949 0 Public Works 1,817;161 1,514,214 19,579 26,583 0 64,740 0 173,467 19,579 0 Community Development 200,769 167,298 2,163 2,827 0 7,153 0 19,166 2,163 0 Community Services 1,271,640 1,271,640 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP Streets 104,245 72,833 1,093 8,976 0 6,355 0 14,267 721 0 ,Other,CIP Projects 257,844 214,858 2,778 3,630 0, 9,186 0 24,61,4 2,778 0 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 9,046,335 7,801,228 70,793 179,275 0 232,746 0 688,687 73,605 0 TIDELANDS FUND Harbor Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GAS TAX 124,486 86,975 1,305 10,718 0 7,589 0 17,038 861 0 MEASURE 84,357 58,938 885 7,263 0 5,142 0 11,546 583 0 SUBTOTAL OTHER FUNDS 208,842 145,913 2,190 17,981 0 12,731 0 28,583 1,444 0 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 40 GENERAL PLAN BUILDOUT Buildout of the existing General Plan would maintain an overall positive fiscal balance for the City, in terms of annual operating costs and revenues. As summarized in the Table 19, the City's housing units, population and total employment would all grow about 16 percent. However, within these broad averages are some important variations. TABLE 19 Growth Rates 2002 • Buildout VARIABLE PERCENT GROWTH Occupied Single -Family Dwelling Units 3% Occupied Muld-Family Dwelling Units 25% Total Occupied Dwelling Units 16% Group QuartersTopulation 0% Population 16% Employed Residents 16% Retail Employees 24% Service Employees 16% Other Employees 10% Total Employees 16% Elementary/High Sdrool Students 1% Lodging Rooms 19% Future residential growth is projected to focus heavily on multi -family development, which will tend to shift the tax base to slightly lower cost housing. However, as noted in the analysis of Newport Coast, housing prices for all types of units in Newport Beach are rapidly reaching levels that can generate sufficient property tax to support public services. For the buildout analysis we assumed a modest 5 to 10 percent real growth in housing prices, which had a marked positive effect on the net cost of residential uses as shown in Table 20. Within the employment figures, the buildout projection shows higher growth for retail and lodging employment, at 24 percent and 19 percent, respectively. As discussed in the earlier section of this report, these two business sectors are particularly strong net revenue generators. Along with the growth in hotels rooms and regional population, we have assumed a 20 percent growth in visitors to Newport Beach over the 20 to 25 years time period needed to achieve buildout. The increased visitors add sales tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) to the City's revenues but would also increase costs for police protection and emergency response among others. We have not assumed, however, a APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE41 commensurate increase in the marine industry or the number of boats moored in Newport Harbor. The general plan buildout projection does not include additional marina berths, and as discussed earlier, some elements of the marine industry are under pressure from rising real estate prices and may not be able to expand readily in Newport Beach. As shown in Table 20, the individual land uses perform about the same as in the existing land use scenario earlier, but the total net revenue is higher as a percent of revenue due to the increased proportion of sales tax, TOT tax and property tax from residential units. The analysis also includes the assumption that Citywould see increased revenues from the use of public property, as uses on these sites intensify to serve the increased resident and visitor population. It should further be noted that this analysis only addresses the annual costs of providing services and does not include any capital costs or improvements to public facilities needed to support the growth in the buildout projection. Due to the long time frame (20-25 years) to achieve buildout, we have not attempted to estimate the marginal costs of expanding or upgrading city facilities. As these costs are identified through subsequent analysis in the General Plan Update process, a discussion of financing for public improvements will be included in the fiscal analysis. APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 42 TABLE 20 Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buiidout REVENUES TOW R*0&ntlal Office Rafail hWustrial Lodg'vig Marine Commercial Institutional Puhlic GENERALFUNO Propertyiax 44,455,553 35,821,978 3,768}67 444,014 1,286,946 524,349 524,960 1,631,708 453,332 0 Sales Tax 23,850,491 89,479 2,312,702 17,I25,217 910,645 709,108 978,688 1,775,652 0 0 TmnsiwoccupamTax 9,%3,150 965,756 0 0 0 8,897,394 0 0 0 0 Franchiw Fan 27T1,920 1,108,179 863,368 297.781 271,554 59,952 27,C65 114,376 37,647 0 Business Licenses 2,752,379 414,408 885,501 29%665 II4,921 12,628 26,993 25ZC77 21,732 14 %0 MotorVehicN4O•13au 1,970,612 1,970,612 0 0 0 0 0 R 0 0 Ottwk Wvemmanfal IX4,956 S78,123 367,184 126,644 115,490 25,497 IU10 48,643 I6,011 235,655 CtwVuforService 9,88000 4754,333 1,988.006 U%676 625,284 138,045 6Z319 263,364 86,687 1,276,964 Fhws, Pwmlfles, and Fori&hm 3,646,813 1,754,754 733744 253,073 230783 K951 23,001 97,204 31,995 471,309 Licemas and Pernik 436,019 209,801 87,728 30,259 27,593 6,092 W50 11,622 3,825 56,350 Use ofPropuly 6,2I4,562 1,191,4C4 472,369 837,689 157,570 644% 1,149,63 *489 IC5,871 2,199,049 OtIwrRavenue 823,130 311A" M4C5 44977 41,016 9,055 174,08E 17,276 5,686 83,763 htlewst Inconw 1,694,369 777,497 187,460 316,596 59A37 164,986 46,928 66,299 11,988 68,176 SUBTOTAL GEUERALFUND 110,212,634 =47,18811791,933 20,460,590 3,84123810,662,553 3,032,828 4,284,709 774.775 4,406,027 TIDELANDS FUND Lfomu%Psrmit:,wAFees 1,279,303 0 0 646,303 0 0 633,OW 0 0 0 ChmmlorSetvke 33,-,W D 0 0 0 0 33„90a 0 0 0 Use ofMoM and Propatty 6,248790 2,651,212 0 132,077 0 0 I,IV,559 67,980 127,600 2,I12,361 STATEGASTAXFUND 1,699,510 1,689XO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MFAWWMFUND 1,453,263 5,307 139,872 1,046,i64 55,076 42,587 59,191 IW67 0 0 SUBWTALOTNERFUNDS 10,704,366, 4,146,030 13%X2 1,824,944 $5,076 42,887 1,8831750 172 i47 127,600 2,112,36I TOTALREVENUE 120,917,000 54,593,2181I,93I704 22,285,534 3,S96,31410,7Cs,440 4916,078 4,457,r5% 902,375 6,51USS APPLIEDDEVELOPMENTECONOMICS PAGE43 TABLE 20 (continued) Fiscal Impact of Existing General Plan Buildout EXPENDITURES Total Residential Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public GENERALFUND General Government 10,977,855 5,804,127 1,666,611 1,161,960 525,374 113,698 57,172 213,326 76,019 1,359,568 Police 35,450,255 16,731,187 5,456,944 7,145,927 1,716,364 387,739 171,063 541,520 237,949 3,061,561 Fire 25,300,159 12,113,389 3;920,645 1,264,891 1,243,536 245,531 166,345 635,014 200,466 5,510,342 PUbIic;W6ft 23,792,259 11,448,233 4;787,035 1;65$079 1,505,659 332,408 150,063 634,170 209,738 3,074,875 Community Development 2,628,691 1,264,859 528,896 182,420 166,353 36,726 16,580 70,066 23,062 339,728 Community Services 9,613,878 9,613,878 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ¢I,P_:Str09 .1,562,800 550,637 267,798 629;325 13,311 32,694 6,525 39,150 7,700 15,660 Other CIPProjects 3,375,979 1,624,436 679,252 234,278 213,644 47,167 21,293 89,985 29,619 436,306 SUBTOTAL GENERAL FUND 112,701,876 59,150,747 17,307,180 12,269,880 5,384,240 1,195,962 589,040 2,223,233 783553 13,798,041 0 TIDELANDS FUND yartiorResourcesDivision 1,282,138 0 0 0 0 0 1,282;138 0 0 0 aji-d:( s •422;264 - 0 0 - '0 6 0 6- 0 0 422,264 CIP 1,244,962 468,885 181,521 62,608 57,094 12,605 40,690 24,047 7,915 389,597 STATEGASTAXFUND 1,866,244 657,552 319,796 751,519 15,896 39,042 7,792 46,752 9,195 18,701 MEASURE MFUND 1,264,639 445,583 216,705 509,258 10,771 26,457 5,280 31,681 6,230 12,672 0BTOTAL'6TAE(2-FUNDS:. , _: "6,080,248- -_ 1;572,021 '718,022. 1;323;385 83�60 7,8;104 1,335,900 102,481 23,340 843,234 ITOTAL'-EXPENDRDRE§ �., �118;782,124, .6V,722,768 Y8,025;'202'1.3',5934265 5,468,001_ 1,274,066 '1,924,940 2,325j13 806,89,3 14,641,275 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 44 APPENDIX A LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION INDUSTRIAL 01 t6u 09 Agriculture, Foresuy, and Fishing 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 15 tiro 17 Construction 21 M ning 20 thru 39 Manufacturing 22 Utilities 40 thou 49 TCPU 23 Construction 50 — 51 Wholesale 3143 Manufaanting 42 WholesaleTrade 48-49 Trans and Warehousing RETAIL 52 BuddingMaterialsand Garden Supplies 44-45 RetailTrade 53 General Merchaudise Stores 722 Food Service& Drinking Places 54 FoodStores 55 Automobile Dealers and Service Stations 56 Apparel and Accessory Stores 57 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 58 Eating and Dri"SPlaces 59 MiscellweousRema OFFICE 60 Depository Institutions 52 Finance and Insurance 61 Nondepositoty Institutions 53 Real Estate 62 Security and Commodity Brokers 54 Professional, Scientific, b: Technical Services 63 Insurance Carriers 621.623 HealthCare 64 Insurance Agents, Brokers, and Service 51 Infonuation 65 Real Estate 561 Administrative and Support Services 67 Holding and Investment Companies 73 Business Services 80 RealthServices 81 Legal Services 87 Engineering and Management Services SERVICE COMMERCIAL 72 Personal Services 81 Other Services 75 Auto Repair, Senices, and Parking 71 Arts, Entertainment, andRecreation 76 Miscellaneous Repair Services 51213 Motion Picture be Video Exhibition 78 ModonPictures 79 Amusement &Recreation Services INSTITUTIONAL 82 Educational Services 61 Educational Services 83 Social Services 624 Social Assistance 84 Museums, Botanical, Zoological Gardens 86 Memberships Oiganizations 91thru97 Public Administration APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE45 LAND USE DEFINITIONS BY SIC AND NAICS SIC DESCRIPTION NAICS DESCRIPTION MARINE 2394 Mfg Of Canvas & Related Products 2499 Miscellaneous Wood Products Mfg 3663 Mfg Of Radio& TV Communications Equip 3731 Slip Building & Repairing 3732 Boat Building & Repairing 3993 Mfg Of Signs & Advertising Specialties 4422 Coastwise Transportation • Water 4469 Miscellaneous Water Transportation Services 4489 Water Passenger Transportation 4491 Marine Cargo Handling 4492 Towing&Tugboat Service 4493 Marinas 4499 Yacht Maintenance 5063 Electrical Apparatus & Equipment 5091 Sporting & Recreation Goods & Supplies 5099 Miscellaneous Durable Goods Wholesalers 5146 Fish & Seafood 5551 Boat Dealers 7699 Miscellaneous Repair Services LODGING 7011 Hotels & Motels NA GOVERNMENT Not bx6idnixorttbnryinBus L' APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECON( 441222 Boat Dealers, New and Used 713930 Marinas 334220 Marine Radio Comm Equip Mfg 336612 Boat yards (Le. boat mfg facilities) 811490 Boat, Pleasure, Repair & Maint Services 713990 Boating Clubs w/o Marinas 721 Accommodation APPENDIX B DISTRIBUTION OF `USE OF PROPERTY' REVENUES BY LAND USE GENERALFUND Public W.J. Carden Telescopes 2,000 z+wu Temp. Slip rentals 1,500 1,500 Galley caf6 20,000 20,000 Orange Co. Dock 40,000 40,000 Garages 36,096 36,096 Pay Telephones 25,000 25,000 CDM Concession 90,000 90,000 Misc. Concessions 2,600 2,600 Parking Meter Income 344,249 28,573 41,751 26,236 767,5671,208,376 Citv Parklna Lots 303,307 25,174 36,785 23,116 676,278 1,064,660 Beacon Bay 650,000 °"',` Balboa Yacht Basin 806,520 806,520 Basin Madne Shipyard 60,000 60,000 Electricity 10,000 10,000 Heritage Yacht Brok, 8,000 8,000 Balboa Yacht Club 4,500 4,500 Apartments 27,072 27,072 Intercity Bus Shelters 60,000 60,000 City facility Fees 55,000 55,000 OASIS 108,000 108,000 Library facility 2,000 2,000 Parking Motor Income 216,481 82,124 48,520 347,124 City Parking Lots 190,734 72,357 42,749 305,840 Marinaoark 350000 350,000 APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS PAGE 47 TIDELANDS FUND Properties Res Office Retail Light Ind. Lodging Marine Service Inst. Pub. Total Visitor -Serving 0 0 98,900 0 0 37,410 61,800 0 990,704 1,188,814 W.J. Carden Telescopes 1,800 1,800 Temp. Slip rentals 1,410 1,410 Galley caf6 20,000 20,000 Garages 40,704 40,704 Orange Co. Dock 36,000 36,000 Balboa Island Ferry 60,000 60,000 Balboa Pier Cone. 50,000 50,000 Newport Pier Cone. 25,000 25,000 Harbor Bait Barge 3,900 3,900 Non -Visitor -Serving 2,285,528 0 7,614 0 0 960,486 0 110,000 807,050 4,170,678 Amer. Legion 110,000 110,000 Beacon Bay 650,000 650,000 Balboa Yacht Basin 900,486 900,486 Basin Marine Shipyard 60,000 60,000 Electricity 7,050 7,050 Bayside Yacht Sales 7,614 7,614 Apar'-+- 3n 59u 30,528 Balk Petr Sale ing Fiscal Analysis Of The General Plan Alternatives May 12, 2005 Prepared for City of Newport Beach Prepared by Applied Development Economics 2029 University Avenue • Berkeley, California 94704 • (510) 548-5912 1029 J Street, Suite 310 • Sacramento, California 95814 • (916) 441-0323 www.adeusa.0M CONTENTS IntroductionAnd Summary...............................................................1 Fiscal Impact Of The Alternatives....................................................5 Citywide Alternatives.....................................................................5 Fiscal Impact Of Subarea Options..............................................8 AirportBusiness Area...................................................................8 BalboaVillage .................................................................................9 BanningRanch ...............................................................................9 CanneryVillage.............................................................................12 CoronaDel Mar..........................................................................13 LidoIsle ........................................................................................13 LidoVillage..................................................................................15 MarinersMile...............................................................................15 McfaddenSquare .........................................................................16 NewportCenter/Fashion Island..............................................18 OldNewport Blvd......................................................................18 West.Newport Highway And Adjoining Residential.............19 WestNewport Industrial...........................................................19 ANote On Residential Assessed Values ....................................... 22 TABLES 1 Fiscal Impact of General Plan Alternatives..................................6 2 Detailed Alternatives Analysis........................................................7 3 Fiscal Impact For Airport Business Area..................................11 4 Fiscal Impact For Balboa Village................................................11 5 Fiscal Impact For Banning Ranch..............................................11 6 Estimated Land and Development Values at Banning Ranch............................................................................................12 7 Fiscal Impact For Cannery Village.............................................14 8 Fiscal Impact For Corona Del Mar............................................14 9 Fiscal Impact For Lido Isle..........................................................14 10 Fiscal Impact For Lido Village..................................................17 11 Fiscal Impact For Mariners Mile...............................................17 12 Fiscal Impact For McFadden Square.......................................17 13 Fiscal Impact For Newport Center/Fashion Island..............20 14 Fiscal Impact For Old Newport Boulevard ............................20 15 Fiscal Impact For West Newport Highway and Adjoining 16 Fiscal Impact For West Newport Industrial ...........................21 FIGURES 1 Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach .............2 2 Overall Cost Revenue Impact of Existing Lind Uses ($Mmons).......................................................................................3 3 Impact of Existing Visitors ($Millions):........................................3 4 GPACAltematives byI.anduse....................................................4 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY The fiscal analysis of the General Plan Alternatives is based on the model described in the report entitled Fisad Irlpact Am jsis andMag dated January2004. The report described the methodology used to develop the fiscal model and presents a fiscal analysis of existing land uses in Newport Beach, as well as analyses of future growth both. at Newport Coast and for the.city as a whole based on the existing General Plan. The present report analyzes several citywide alternatives identified through analysis of trip generation rates for each development option identified by the GPAC in geographic subareas of the City. The analysis evaluates the new development that would occur in each General Plan alternative. The.report also presents a fiscal analysis of every option for each study area. However, from a fiscal perspective, the planning goal is to achieve a positive fiscal result citywide, not necessarily in each subarea. This requires a balance of land uses across the city, and each neighborhood or commercial district will provide only a piece of the total land use mix. Therefore, the results from the individual subareas should be viewed as "building blocks", for use in creating citywide development alternatives that make fiscal sense. The City -would not likely -want all future growth to be concentrated in one type of land use or another, because individual land uses depend on each other from an economic standpoint, as illustrated in Figure 1 below. For example, by themselves, residential and office uses sometimes create a negative fiscal impact,,yet theyprovide the income and living environment necessaryto support the retail uses that provide more of the fiscal benefit for the City. City of Newport Beach Figure 1 Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach Purchase Newport Beach products and services ♦ Net Tax Dollars for Services Jobs & I 1 Net Tax Dollars Income for Services iVisitor Spending Income Laval Purchases & Net Tax Dollars Income for Services Local Purchases Jobs & Income Net Tax Dollars for Services FJ Business to Business Transactions and Visitor Spending In general, the individual land uses generate similar impacts as demonstrated in the earlier analysis of general plan buildout for the City (Figure 2). Office and industrial uses typically do not generate enough propertytax to offset the cost of services for those uses. However, retail, lodging and service commercial uses show a positive fiscal benefit, primarily due to sales taxes they generate as well as Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) revenues from overnight stays. Public uses tend to require more in service costs than they generate in tax revenues. Figure 3 shows the net benefit of land uses serving primarily visitors. Average -priced housing creates a negative fiscal impact while higher -priced units tend to pay for themselves in terms of their cost/revenue balance for the City.' As shown in Figure 2, the total existing residential housing stock in Newport Beach is estimated to create a negative fiscal impact of $7.7 million annually, due in pan to the fact that assessed values tend to degrade in relation to market values over time. The types of housing included in the General Plan Alternatives, 1 In this context, "average prices" range from the low $400,000's for townhouses to the low $600,000's for single family units, while "higher prices" range from $600,000 for townhomes to $800,000 for single family units. City of Newport Beach combined with current market trends, result in higher property tax revenues than is typically generated bvthe current housing stock This leads to a positive fiscal outcome for most of the residential scenarios analyzed in this report (see Figure 4) (more discussion of residential values is provided at the end of this report). FIGURE 2 Overall Cost -Revenue Impact of Existing Land Uses ($ Millions) Public -$6.9 TOTAL = $0.1 Million Institutional $0.07 = Service Commercial $1.9 Marine $2.4 Industrial -$1.6 Office -$5.4 Residential Sm -$7.7 FIGURE 3 Impact of Existing Visitors ($ Millions) TOTAL = $4.7 Million Public -$7.5 Institutional $0 Service Commercial $0.1 Marine $0.2 Lodging $7.8 Industrial $0 Retail $3.1 VlZesidetial $0.7 City of Newport Beach 3 Figure 4 SPAC Alternatives by Land Use 12.00 ^ 10.00 12.00) .00 ■TrueMlnimum .00 ■Aks Minimum .00 [i Alts Maximum .00 ♦ 00 OF qp C4 y of Newport Beach FISCAL IMPACT OF THE ALTERNATIVES CITYWIDE ALTERNATIVES The fiscal performance of the alternatives and the various options for the sub -areas is a function largely of their land use combination and the amount of new development of each type. Three citywide alternatives were assembled, representing low and high levels of traffic generation. These same alternatives have been evaluated here from a fiscal standpoint; but perhaps not surprisingly, the results are the reverse of the traffic analysis. The maximum trip generation alternative generates the best fiscal benefit. While the two minimum traffic generation alternatives still generate positive fiscal results, they have lower net revenues (Table 1). The outcome for the minimum alternatives could be significantly affected by the cost of purchasing Banning Ranch for open space, if the cost were borne by the City of Newport Beach. As discussed below in the section on Banning Ranch, the cost of the land could require bond payments as high as $10.3 million annually. This would cause both of the minimum alternatives to show a negative fiscal impact. However, it is possible this transaction could be undertaken by other groups or agencies, or perhaps with the aid of state or federal funds. For these reasons, the land purchase has not been included in the figures in Table 1, but it must be recognized that the cost of the open space option at Banning Ranch could be substantial. A number of the individual options for many of the subareas do show a negative fiscal impact, as discussed in more detail in the next section. Table 2 provides some perspective for this discussion by presenting the individual options that comprise the citywide alternatives. The table indicates the percent contribution of each area to the grand total for each alternative, and demonstrates that although some of the areas have negative fiscal impacts, the magnitude of the impact is minimal. City of Newport Beach ALTERNATIVES Total True Minimum $317,104 p6 Subarea Only $10,321,718 Residential TABLE 1 Fiscal Impact of General Plan Alternatives Off -ice Retail Industrial Lodging $985,111 ($726,305) $860,417 Service Marine Commercial Institutional $97,038 $9,659,692 $674,832 Public $179,556 ($1,244,653) ($163,970) City of Newport Beach 0 TABLE 2 Detailed Alternatives Analysis Subarea Subarea Only Only True Options Options Minimum Minimum Maximum AIRPORT BUSINESS AREA General Plan Growth -2.1% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 2 52.8% Option 3 34.2% BALBOA VILLAGE GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 3 -25.4% -0.1% Option 4 -1.8% BANNING RANCH GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 1--Open Space -1.0% 0.1% Option 2-Taylor Woodrow 6.8% CANNERY VILLAGE TAZ 1449/CANNERY VILLAGE WEST General Plan Growth -0.2% GPAC Alternatives Growth 0.8% 0.4% TAZ 1454/CANNERY VILLAGE EAST GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 1 0.6% Option 2 -26.1% -1.6% CORONA DEL MAR GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 1 1.5% Option 2 47.6% 2.8% LIDO ISLE General Plan Growth 0.6% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option I -No change 0.0% 0.0% LIDO VILLAGE TAZ 1452 General Plan Growth 0.2% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 2 13.0% Option 3-mixed use 1.8% TAZ 1453 General Plan Growth -9.0% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 1 0.4% Option 2 0.8% MARINERS MILE TOTAL PLANNING AREA General Plan Growth 32.8% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 2 17.9% 9.2% MCFADDEN SQUARE TAZ 1450 General Plan Growth 3.4% GPAC Altematives Growth 9.1% 4.7% TAZ 1451 General Plan Growth 4.5% GPAC Alternatives Growth 19.6% 10.1% NEWPORT CENTER/FASHION ISLAND General Plan Growth 272.6% GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 1 38.1% Option 2 8.1% City of Newport Beach YI TABLE 2 Detailed Alternatives Analysis (continued) Subarea subarea Only Only True Options Options Minimum Minimum Maximum OLD NEWPORT BOULEVARD TAZ 1432 General Plan Growth 23.6% GPAC Alternatives Growth 1 1.0% oon ption 2 3.0% WEST NEWPORT HIGHWAY Block A Option 2 (spec needs housing) 0.0% Option 4 (panting lot) 0.9% 0.1% Black B (no charge, est. exist dus) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Block C Option i (vertical mixed use) -4.9% Option 4 (limit rti, hsg, & hotel) 10BA% 6.4% Non -Study Area 35.4% 2.1% 1A% WEST NEWPORT INDUSTRIAL GPAC Alternatives Growth Option 2 (total TAZ) -15.4% option 3 (total TAZ) -365.6% -21.8% TOTAL* 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% *Not&. Totals do not add due to rounding FISCAL IMPACT OF SUBAREA OPTIONS An analysis was run for every land use option in each subarea in the General Plan alternatives analysis. The analysis addresses onlythe incremental land use change, and does not account for existing land uses that would remain in place for each alternative. VMe the options within each subarea may be mutually exclusive, the fiscal results for the options maybe added to those for options in other subareas to create results for any combination of subareas throughout the City. A brief discussion of each subarea is provided below. AIRPORT BUSINESS AREA According to the existing General Plan Growth Scenario, the Airport Business area would add primarilycommercial and office development, with little change in the number of hotel rooms. This scenario produces a negative fiscal effect, primarily due to the amount of office space in relation to other land uses ('Table 3). CHyofNewport Beach Under the GPAC alternatives, Option 1 would see substantially more office development, but also significant growth in lodging. New retail development would be similar to the existing General Plan. This option'produces a very strong $3.2 million in annual net revenues. Option 2 introduces mixed use residential and commercial development, with less office space and lodging than in Option 1. It performs very well, with $2.8 million in annual net revenue. Option 3 expands the mixed use development over Option 2, and provides much less office space, but the same amount of hotel development as in Option 2. It has the best fiscal impact of the GPAC options in this area, with $3.5 million in annual net revenues. BALBOA VILLAGE There are five options in this area in addition to the existing General Plan (Table 4). Under the General Plan Growth Scenario, the area would see growth in condominiums and single-family units in lieu of some existing single farnayunits. There would also be a small amount of new retail and office development. Overall, this scenario creates a negative fiscal impact of about $93,000 per year. The first three GPAC alternatives show very similar residential development patterns as the General Plan alternative, but with slightly varying amounts of commercial or office space. Their fiscal effects are very similar to the General Plan, ranging from negative $80,000 to negative $93,500.Options 4 and 5 include mixed use development, featuring residential over retail space. Option 5 also includes new hotel space, not included in any of the other options. The hotel development creates a positive fiscal impact for Option 5, while Option 4 remains slightly negative. BANNING RANCH In the General Plan Growth Scenario, the Banning Ranch Area is slated to have 2,496 multi -family units, in addition to 225 single-family units. There would be commercial development to support the residential uses, as well as industrial and office uses in portions of the site adjacent to the existing West Newport industrial area. It is anticipated City of Newport Beach that this site would support higher than average residential values, and the General Plan scenario produces a modest positive fiscal impact of about $27,000 per year. The GPAC options range from devoting the entire site to open space (Option 1) to various levels of residential and commercial uses substantially below the amount allowed by the existing General Plan (Options 2 and 3), with no office or industrial space. These middle option are variations on the previouslyproposed Taylor Woodrow project, and both create a healthyfiscal benefit of nearly $600,000 to $700,000 per year (Table 5). Option 4 would include a resort on a smaller portion of the site, with relatively little housing and no industrial or office space. However, the lodging development would create a $1.7 million net fiscal benefit, which is the best result of all the scenarios for Banning Ranch. 'Ilse open space option would entail significant cost to purchase and maintain the land at Banning Ranch. The value of the land is dependent upon the development options available to it. For this analysis, we have taken the approach of estimating the total value of the various land use options included in the alternatives analysis and then setting the land value at 25 percent of total value for each option (Table 6). The development permitted under the existing General Plan is the most intensive of the options, and would result in a total development value of over $1.7 billion. Options 2 and 3 reduce this value somewhat. Option 4, a small scale resort development, represents the lowest overall value project, primarily because it uses only a small portion of the site. We have taken the average of these alternatives to represent the potential value of a project at Banning Ranch. This results in a potential land value of $226 million. If the communitywere to approve a 30•year bond measure to finance this purchase, the annual debt service would be about $10.3 million. City of Newport Beech 10 TABLE 3 Fiscal Impact For Airport Business Area Service AIRPORT BUSINESS AREA Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public General Plan Growth ($6 656) t0 ($189 853) $84 777 ($18 959) .s65,292 $0 $45 196 ($8,943) 15,835 lninu+.i!+'; ':I{N6i°-� astsH�ndnsn'iPPnns s.a._e s stIl Pi "s s su iip ssa jai. s,-}'tlij4{lt!}{` k%ss,d' s6tiPiIII IIItII(III(js( 6i; Ii�?t�'".,z!.L;I+y iid�s'?7Et(ihls> ......,.__°.._. m fix' ,.suu{t t!t.3 ._. „� ,,s,m a�3 sl im,. ,.,,,,,...........i ..,, i3!6»v O tion1 j k{(j $3291377 $0 . t l _m,lp"I!13�11i lillt tli1A,,?I!'� 4"a I� �!{l°,r 3. :etal.{ (s,700,211) ri�+ s�#'i`} $187,982 uN $42868) $3,832,850 iW-$0 r3v .-.s $122,339 8940 99r776 .—.,!i�t "li -. (t 4i(W: �#I ` v �.. Option 3 $3,525,627 $340,968 ($39 044) $163 033 $223,432 $2,984,052 $0 $28,616 ($88,402) ($87,029) TABLE 4 Fiscal Impact For Balboa Service BALBOA VILLAGE Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public General Plan Growth (193,184) ($71 746) ($36 041) $5 768 $D $0 2 702 .s 1 ..,...._� P.�i0 $<r6s „13t o3s +$.n0t $, st uIa Ms} t. option 1 t'itN9 psi���,�;,!� `, s,jjots s Isis iPd"i t ���� � rCr WRR, .rz"s, t�s3 ,„,,.al€, .. 92 186 69 212 ,i�}::y, ti!1 y I(� s aft ''�§W l"...."`_,(, 36 041 4 530 >li i''" Fi;iilti ., `' ... ..:..,_ 0 0 0 5,880 t- iniiUU s .».a...., � tfil i. f!"�s.M.,.»..._...., ..».. D 2r657 ..., e'.. Option 3 ($80433� ($71 746) ($20 145) $5,768 dial tau sEwu u.�yni ns ita € + s ! : S n; a.f"Siir $0 $0 $0 $3 948 $0 $1 742 vx., Option 5 $1,868,324 ($41,132) $12,452 $46 416 $0 $1,928,057 $0 ($1,387) $0 ($76,082) TABLE 5 Fiscal Impact For Banning Ranch Service BANNING RANCH Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public General Plan Growth $27 147 $163 680 S$124 393) $15,392 ($72 200) $0 $0 $221I27D $0 $22 397 µ;y=li !L `. t 'u tJ,!II!i tiI!(�iEi"A F Ijk S t7 t it!4{? S� {If (� Y9F �� }!}ij.r[({t _�y (1�t t!J9I11t J i1i i��ii tl�� Il s_kk"r ?dti�'!to .I �L"ea. �etli�N[i ': :. .:.: �- —�— .,. , s31, IttL _..., .., .. tee: + �sl l,l —� ...{�Illu ail. .?..{tii`lt9R:�t`..,... ,. Opbon 1 Open S ace �.,Ent'.R!IFfl(ifl8f ($3 124�0 $D $0 $D $0 $0 ($3 346) $221 [OOdCnVv` its ii..�S2,i3 s� i ,t I ,,'k^.T3ylii . - ni :i'irnttW111,1ltPRisr 111 Otion 3Ta ed odrow"Rs $591ii,3,7ai5! $469,6s91 $Di€ $0 �,($13,655) h"s,e I 5WvaOis + 'L. . pt- I a: City of Newport Beach 11 As discussed in the Introduction, other options maybe possible for purchasing the land, some of which may not require anyinvestment from the Guy of Newport Beach itself, Therefore, the land purchase has been kept separate from the fiscal impact of the onsite land uses in Table 5. TABLE 6 Estimated Land and Development Values at Banning Ranch LAND USE DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Ganaral Plan Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 RESIDENTIAL Single Family $202,500,000 $787,500,000 $392,400,000 $0 Multi -Family $1,38%400,000 $487,275,000 $142,675,000 $26,00%000 Subtotal Residential $1,590,900,000 $1,274,775,000 $535,075,000 $26,000,000 NUN -RESIDENTIAL ofte $33,431,918 $0 $0 $0 Retail $1,859,526 $2,789,289 $1,301,668 $929,763 Indushial $108,976,964 $0 $0 $0 Lodging $0 $5,997,505 $5,997,503 $10,951,277 Service Commerdai $1205,592 $3,593,977 $1,677,189 $1,197,992 AVERAGE AMONG THE OPTIONS "Based on a30year bond® 5%. Sousse: ADE.,Inc. CANNERY VILLAGE The east and west villages have been addressed separately in the analysis (Table 7). CANNERY VILLAGE WEST (TAZ 1449) Under the enlisting General Plan, this area would see a small amount of condominium development and some commercial growth. This scenario has a minor negative fiscal impact. The GPAC alternative would include mixed -use development with residential over commercial space, and increase the intensity of development over the existing General Plan. All of the land uses in this option are fiscallypositive, totaling about $45,000 in net revenue per year. CHyofNewporiBeach 12 CANNERY VILLAGE EAST (TAZ 1454) The existing General Plan would allow additional condominium development along with a small amount of retail, office and waterfront industrial development in this area. The industrial uses contribute to negative fiscal impact, although if the future development includes boat sales along with repair, it could actually be a positive fiscal benefit. The GPAC Option 1 would have mixed use development at greater intensities, while Option 2 focuses mainly on multi- family residential development, in place of some of the existing commercial space in the area. The mixed use development in Option 1 creates a positive fiscal impact, while the mix of land uses in Option 2 is negative. CORONA DEL MAR According to the General Plan Growth Scenario, the Corona del Mar area will add some single family residential development, with supporting commercial and professional office space. The single fare lyunits create a positive fiscal effect, and the scenario as a whole produces more than $129,000 per year in net revenue (Table 8). Options 1 and 2 introduce mixed -use space, along with the new single family units. These options have even higher fiscal benefits due to the higher intensity of residential development. LIDO ISLE The existing General Plan would allow additional,growth in single family units. In addition to this option, the GPAC also defined an alternative that would keep development as it currently exists in the area. The existing General Plan development scenario would increase property values in the area and have a positive fiscal benefit of about $64,000 per year, which would not be realized with the alternative (Table 9). City of Newport Beach 13 TABLE 7 Fiscal Impact For Can Service CANNERY VILLAGE Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public TAZ 1449/CANNERY VILLAGE WEST n 11 , , , " - , pill itilc Alternatives Growth $42,519 $20,228 $10,876 $10,153 $0 $0 $0 $592 $0 $669 TAZ 1454/CANNERY VILLAGE EAST 1111ZO UM',. MEN!, $Um iIIM L GPAC Alternatives Growth 11 , , � - E ------ III I I I I S.KA IIII I 11! 111 i 0 R $ 3 —LM 14 1111 M%, Q ZEN R. 2 6 i ji T� VA�- A AM, RIINU, �' �0 9 �2""', , I I� .1, 11 11 Y7 -1- Option 2 ($82,669) ($8,619) $49,612 ($58,996) ($39,144) $0 $0 ($19,275) $0 ($6,247) TABLE 8 Fiscal Impact For Corona Del Mar Service CORONA DEL MAR Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public .......... N, NSUM MIMP . .. ............ .... -0=�Mlyb —rlm .. .. .... .................... . 7 -,Mffiftai 0 It GPAC Alternatives Growth IINI 010 015 -t-ltli sa "W- 1,11111 5-3, 5000*11, -�W Option 2 $151,051 $103,760 $43,485 $7,767 $0 ..$o $0 ($4,483) $0 $522 TABLE 9 Fiscal Impact For Lido Isle Service LIDO ISLE Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public General Plan Growth W,569 $63,271 $o $0 $0 $o $0 $0 $0 $1,298 0- SM r itil --tit'NI INIIII: L, I I T tv N Option 1--No change to existing uses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 City of Newport Beach 14 LIDO VILLAGE The north and south sections of this subarea have been addressed separately in the analysis (Table 9). LIDO VILLAGE NORTH (TAZ 1452) In the northern portion of Lido Village, little growth would occur in the General Plan Scenario and there is little fiscal effect. Under the GPAC alternatives, both Option 1 and Option 3 would include mixed use development, with residential over commercial space. Option 2 focuses more on retail and visitor accommodation, although Option 1 also includes new hotel space. Due to the hotel space, Options 1 and 2 return a substantial $1.3 million annual fiscal benefit, while the Option 3 fiscal impact is a much more modest $95,000 per year (Table 10). LIDO VILLAGE SOUTH (TAZ 1453) The existing General Plan for this area would allow some new office development and a small amount of new commercial space. The office space contributes to an overall negative fiscal impact by this scenario of more than $28,000 per year. Under the GPAC alternatives, Option 1 would increase the retail development potential -and reduce office space, while Option 2 would have mixed use residential and retail space and no new office space. While both of these options are positive fiscally, Option 2 performs much better at $78,000 per year in net revenues (Table 10). MARINERS MILE In the General Plan Growth Scenario, the Mariners Mile project area is projected to include additional office space, and a small amount of hotel development. This scenario would result in a positive fiscal impact of about $103,000 per year (Table 11). The GPAC options would add mixed use development, substantially increasing the amount of housing development in the area, along with the same increase in lodging as in the existing General Plan. In addition, Option 2 would focus on marine uses in -lieu of some of the other non-residential land City of Newport Beach 15 uses. This would boost the fiscal benefit of the option to more than $950,000 peryear, up from $305,000 per year under Option 1. MCFADDEN SQUARE The east and west portions of this subarea have been addressed separately in the analysis (Table 12). MCFADDEN SQUARE EAST (TAZ 1 450) The existing General Plan would permit some increase in single family attached housing in this area, along with a small amount of commercial development. This land use mix produces a smallfiscal benefit of about $10,000 peryear. The GPAC alternatives would include mixed use development with residential over office space. There would also be additional'lodging development, which substantiallyincreases the fiscal benefit by$483,000 per year (Table 12). MCFADDEN SQUARE WEST (TAZ 1451) Inthis area, the existing General Plan would also allow some single-family detached units along with townhouse or duplex developments. As with the east side of this area, this mix produces a modest positive fiscal benefit ($14,000 per year). The GPAC alternative would focus on lodging development with some supporting commercial space, creating net positive revenues of over $1 million annually: ClfyOtNewporf Beach 16 TABLE 10 ' Fiscal Impact For Lido Village Service LIDO VILLAGE Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public TABLE it Fiscal Impact For Mariners Mile Service MARINERS MILE Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public MCFADDEN SQUARE Total $483,564 TABLE 12 Fiscal Impact For McFadden Square Service Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging $20,724 ($34,509) $17,422 $4,999 $483,568 Marine Commercial Institutional Public $0 $7,169 $0 ($15,808) City of Newport Beach 17 NEWPORT CENTER/FASHION ISLAND The existing General Plan would allow some increases in nearly all of the existing land uses including commercial, office and hotels. There would be no increase in residential development, however. This scenario creates a fiscal benefit of more than $860,000 per year (Table 13). The GPAC alternatives would have varying amounts of new development in the non-residential land use categories, along with potentially substantial increases in multi -family residential development. Option 1 would have significantly more hotel development than would either the existing General Plan or the other GPAC options, and would also significantly increase the amount of retail development in the area. This combination of land uses creates the best fiscal benefit in the area, at $3.9 million per year ('Table 13). Option 2 significantly increases the amount of office space that would be permitted, which reduces the fiscal benefit of this scenario to $428,000.Option 3 has the same office and hotel growth as the existing general Plan, but increases retail development over Option 2, thus resulting in a midrange fiscal benefit for this area of $921,000 per year. Also, this option has more housing than the others, and given the anticipated rnarlset segments for the housing this increases the fiscal benefit of the option. OLD NEWPORT BLVD. The existing General Plan option increases single family attached units along with some commercial and office space. This scenario would have a positive fiscal impact of about $74,000 per year (Table 14). The GPAC options focus on mixed use residential and commercial development, along with a small amount of additional lodging. In addition, Option 1 includes increased medical offices in the area. However, with the lodging and an increased component of retail development, Option 1 has a solid fiscal benefit of about $99,000 per year. Option 2 performs much better without the office space, despite having slightly less retail development. It produces about $161,000 per year. Option 3 deletes the lodging and has a fiscal benefit of only $18,000 per )par. City ofNeWportBeach 18 WEST NEWPORT HIGHWAY AND ADJOINING RESIDENTIAL The existing General Plan would see very little additional development in this area and a modest fiscal benefit. The GPAC Option 1 adds mixed use residential and commercial development, with some reduction in the existing lodging rooms in the area. This results in a negative fiscal impact•of more than $500,000 per year. Option 2 concentrates on adding some housing and more lodging to the area, and has the best fiscal benefit, at about $1.2 million annually. Option 3 adds more commercial and open space but also results in a reduction of lodging, and a resulting negative fiscal impact. Option 4 provides limited additional retail, residential and hotel development, with a positive fiscal impact of more than $340,000 per year. WEST NEWPORT INDUSTRIAL This area features growth in industrial and office uses and expansion of the hospital. The hospital is certainly major community resource, and in manyways is likelyan economic engine in terms of fostering related medical office development and possibly medical equipment sales. However, because it is operated by non-profit religious group, the City receives very little property tax from the hospital. The available revenues do not cover the estimated city services costs. This greatly influences the outcome of all the development scenarios in this area. The potential impact of the hospital expansion is approximately negative $1 million annually. In addition to the hospital project, the three GPAC options in this area include progressively larger components of multi- family housing development. Option 1 also includes substantial industrial development along with a moderate amount of office space, creating a negative $1.3 million annual fiscal impact (Table 16). Option 2 includes some commercial development and a very large medical office component, but reduces the amount of industrial development compared to Option 1.Option 2 has the worst fiscal impact of the three, at negative $1.5 million. Option 3 includes the most housing development of the three and actually reduces some of the existing industrial space to make room for the housing and new office development. This option has the best fiscal result, at negative $1.1 million. City of Newport Beach 19 TABLE 13 Fiscal Impact For Newport Center/Fashion Island service NEWPORT CENTER/FASHION ISLAND Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public 01. �—ffillg �'W,jj- "I sa,Hb :, 111 " �17-1111 WMMI All, 15 " �,— 6K M .1 10 Owl) 41 *Q616 Mr MIAMkOA GPAC Alternatives Growth 47 q 380 040 11M 14390r; P NO d0w "M'Ai WMU AD ib 00094--, TABLE 14 Fiscal Impact For Old Newport Boulevard Service OLD NEWPORT BOULEVARD Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public 4WO&A"M "a, 55'7117,aw MEDIUM— AMAW GPAC Alternatives Grow—th =V ",, I� "jjj..M, = MI wi" 11 C)ntion 2 161IS2 (48.09S) S? 330 22.068 132 141488 0 (675) 0 (7,096) City of Newport Beach 20 TABLE 15 Fiscal Impact For West Newport Highway and Adjoining Residential Service WEST NEWPORT HIGHWAY ANDAD30INING RESIDENTIAL Total Housing office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercal Institutional Public GPAC Alternatives Change (estimated) Option 4 (parldng lot) Block B (no change, esL erdst dus) $2,866 $3,080 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($215) Option 2 (dus & hotel 1262151 352 0 $15,610 0 $1,301,9170 (3 043) $0 52 684 ODtion3(Doml—w1otconsold) (i554S42) 33388 $6 S2J06 3D (4566846-5 $6 t3191 kn 423trrai Option 4 (limit rd, hsg, & hotel) $342,926 $352 $0 $1,189 $0 $357,562 $0 ($1,485) $0 ($14,692) Non Study Area $112,156 $109,170 $2 986 TABLE 16 Fiscal Impact For West Newport Industrial Service WEST NEWPORT INDUSTRIAL Total Housing Office Retail Industrial Lodging Marine Commercial Institutional Public 5 GPAC Altematives Growth City ofNewport Beach 21 A NOTE ON RESIDENTIAL ASSESSEYVALUES When we analyzed new home prices for the fiscal impact of Newport Coast in 2002 and 2003, single fatnilyprices averaged $815,000 and townhouses averaged about $600,000. Our analysis of existing land uses in Newport Beach showed that there was very little new mull famityproduct, and most of the assessed values of existing apartment units have declined substantially relative to market conditions. Our fiscal analysis indicated that existing residential units generally did not pay their wayfor Cityservices because the propertytaxes on existing assessed values werenot sufficient. However, new homes such as those in Newport Coast were valued high enough to create a positive fiscal impact. For the alternative analysis in this report, the following assumptions have been made about unit values. r Single family: $900,000 r Condominium: $650,000 ■ Mixed Use apartments: $344,000 ■ Other apartments: $275,000 The land use alternatives have been defined in terms of broad land use categories. In order to prepare the fiscal analysis, we have made additional more detailed assumptions about the unit types and values. In the Airport area, Banning Ranch and Newport Center, 75 percent of the multiefamilyunits would be condominiums. In other areas, the ownership share would be 50 percent. For mixed use residential, 75 percent would be condominiums ($650,000) and the other 25 percent are valued at $344,000. CRY of Newport Beath 22 PLANNING DEPARTMENT CITY HALL 3300 NEWPORT BOULEVARD P. 0. BOX 1768 NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA 92658-8915 Memorandum To: Planning Commissioners From: Gregg B. Ramirez, Senior Planner (949) 644-3219 aramirez(a)city. newport-beach.ca.us CC: Date: May 27, 2005 Re: Fiscal Analysis of the General Plan Alternatives Attached is the revised presentation given at the May 24, 2005 City Council meeting. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. Thank You Newport Beach Fiscal Analysis of the General Plan Alternatives May 2005 Introduction The Fiscal Analysis is ... ;; Based on the fiscal model developed earlier in the process. Does not account for inflation — the analysis is intended to compare the land use mixes in the options within a common framework. The fiscal analysis is not a market analysis. " Does not address infrastructure needs at this time. Overall Cost -Revenue Impact Public -$6.7 ($ Millions) TOTAL = $0.1 Million Institutional $0.08 Service Commercial $1.8 Marine $2.4 Lodging $7.8 Industrial -$1.5 Retail $7.1 Office -$5.0 Residential -$6.7 a` SEW PqRr 19 Impact of Visitors ($ Millions) Public -$7.4 TOTAL = $4.9 Million Institutional $0 Service Commercial $0.1 Marine $0.2 Industrial $0 Retail $3.2 Office $0 L 1 Residential $0.9 Lodging $7.8 Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport Beach REST OF THE WORLD'S ECONOMY Purchase Newport Beach products and services Purchase Newport Beach products and services + Net Tax Dollars / Worker earnings for Services from businesses outside Newport Beach Income Jobs & Net Tax Dollars Income for Services ars Visitor Spending Jobs & Income Net Tax Dollars for Services Business to Business Transactions and Visitor Spending Economic and Fiscal Relationships in Newport / Worker earnings from businesses outside Newport Beach $$ Income Beach $ REST OF THE WORLD'S ECONOMY I Purchase Newport Beach products and services Re ;---I Shc Jobs & Income i�00 Net Tax Dollars for Services ars $ P' urchase Newport Beach products and services Net Tax Dollars for Services Visitor Spending lobs & Income Net Tax Dollars for Services Business to Business Transactions and Visitor Spending $12.0 $8.0 v $6.0 C $4.0 C $2.0 LW $0.0 Citywide Alternatives ($ Millions) True Minimum Alts Minimum Alts Maximum The result is partly from differences in total development and partly land use mix. °WaoR, Citywide Alternatives US by Major Land Use $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 z $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 ($ 2.00)`a�� ■ True Minimum ■ Ms Minimum O Alts Maximum Lodging drives the outcome: $1.5 mil in True Min., $6.0 mil. in Alts Min., and $9.6 mil. in Alts Max. Q�E Citywide Alternatives by Major Subarea W. W. NEWPORT HWY OLD NEWPORT BLVD. NEINPORT CTR. MC ADDEN SQ. MARINERS MILE LIDO VIL. CO . DEL MAR CANNERY VIL. BALBOA VIL. ($2,000) ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Annual Contribution to Alternative (000's) ' , True Minimum $4,000 a Citywide Alternatives by Major Subarea W. W. NEWPORT HWY PORT CTR. MC ADDEN SQ. MAR NERS MILE CO . DEL MAR CA NNERY W LBOA W AIR T AREA ($2,000) ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Annual Contribution to Alternative (000's) .„ Subareas Only Minimum $4,000 �qr= Citywide Alternatives by Major Subarea ($2,000) ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Annual Contribution to Alternative (000's) '% Subareas Only Maximum $4,000 wpoRr r n ��Itp0.N Subarea Options: Airport Area ($500) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revenue (000's) :0 Existing GP focuses on office development. Options add mixed use and lodging. Option 3 has less office. 4 dEw�Rr O 9 :_= = Subarea Options: Balboa Village Existing GPM Option 10 Option 2❑ Option 3❑ Option Option 57 ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) Existing GP is mainly multi family residential. Options 4 and 5 have mixed use but only Option 5 has lodging. EwvpRr 6 t1 cc�roa„. Subarea Options: Banning Ranch Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) Existing GP has office and industrial along with housing. C�, Option 4 is the resort. Subarea Options: Cannery Village C�4 FOPM�' West ■ Existing GP ■ GPAC Alternative ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) c° Alternative has mixed use at higher intensity than Existing GP. ° Subarea Options: Cannery Village West 1 ($10) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 Annual Net Revenues (000's) $50 ■ Existing GP ■ GPAC Alternative Alternative has mixed use at higher intensity than Existing GP. ; Subarea Options: Cannery Village East ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) $3,000 $4,000 Option 1 includes mixed use while Option 2 is mainly multi -family development. 4= Subarea Options: Cannery Village East ($100) ($50) $0 $50 $100 Annual Net Revenues (000's) ,% Option 1 includes mixed use while Option 2 is mainly multi -family development. 0144 Subarea Options: Corona del Mar Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) Options add mixed use to increased single family units. o e Subarea Options: Corona del Mar Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 $0 $50 $100 $150 Annual Net Revenues (000's) =` Options add mixed use to increased single family units. $200 Subarea Options: Lido Isle 1 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues(000's) Existing GP allows further development on existing lots, dEW ART b C�4roaa`• ubarea Options: Lido Village North Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revnues (000's) Options 1 and 2 focus on lodging and commercial, while Option 3 has mixed use. ubarea Options: Lido Village South General Plan Growth Option 1 Option 2 ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) $3,000 $4,000 Existing GP adds office and commercial. Option 1 has increased retail and office while Option 2 has mixed use with no office. > a ac,t;foR� ubarea Options: Lido Village South ($40) ($20) $0 $20 $40 $60 Annual Net Revenues (000's) $80 $100 c: Existing GP adds office and commercial. C3 nnfinn 1 hac inrrPaczPri rPfiail anri nffirP WHIP nnfinn 2 has mixed use with no office. Subarea Options: Mariners Mile Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) 4' Option 1 includes mixed use. Ac Option 2 also adds marine uses. ubarea Options: McFadden Square East 1 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Annual Net Revenue (000's) ■ Existing GP ■ GPAC Alternatives Existing GP adds housing. Alternative adds mixed use with lodging. ubarea Options: McFadden Square WestUPS i $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) ■ Existing GP ■ GPAC Alternatives Existing GP would add some housing. Alternative adds lodging and commercial. Subarea Options: Newport oi3 Center/Fashion Island Existing GP Option i Option 2 Option 3 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) Option 1 includes more retail and lodging. Option 2 has more office. :> Option 3 has more retail than Option 2 ubarea Options: Old Newport Blvd. Existing GP Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Annual Net Revenues (000's) :% Existing GP adds housing. Option 1 emphasizes medical adds lodging. Option 3 deletes the lodging. offices while Option 2 ubarea Options: Old Newport Blvd. NZLI'oa,"" i5cisting GP Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 $0 $50 $100 $150 Annual Net Revenues (000's) $200 Existing GP adds housing. Option 1 emphasizes medical offices while Option 2 adds lodging. Option 3 deletes the lodging. subarea Options: West Newport Hwy Block V ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Annual Net Revenue (000's) Option 2 includes housing and lodging. Options 1 and 3 reduce lodging. cr Option 4 reduces the amount of housing and lodging. Subarea Options: West Newport Industrial ($4,000) ($3,500) ($3,000) ($2,500) ($2,000) ($1,500) ($1,000) ($500) Annual Net Revenues (000's) Option 1 focuses in industrial. Option 2 emphasizes office. Option 3 adds housing. X APPLIED DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 3uilding the Knowledge and tesources Communities Need to tealize Their Economic Potential