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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSS02 - Presentation by Investment AdvisorsMeeting Date: April 25,2000 Study Session Item No.: SS2 Subject: PRESENTATION BY TWO OF THE CITY'S INVESTMENT ADVISORS. No report. Item is self explanatory. H1;tC3�00 , ssl-- WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT OF 1 Investment Review 1 -1 WELLS CAPITALMANAGCMHNT Table of Contents Portfolio Review Market Review Investment Strategy WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ■ II II 1 I II 1 1 II I (Vells Capital Management is committed to providing superior service, outstanding performance and the utmost integrity to our clients and associates. As a registered investment advisory firm, we focus on managing institutional separate account portfolios, mutual funds and collective investment funds for corporations, pension plans, endowments, foundations, healthcare organizations, educational organizations, public agencies, sovereign organizations and Taft - Hartley plans. The professionals within our firm actively manage over $72 billion in assets and are dedicated to serving the needs of institutional investors through a broad range of investment strategies. 'Rcpoc stations of awcu undcr management Dmcmber 31. 1999. • Short Duration & Liquidity Management • Intermediate Fixed Income • Core Fixed Income • Core -Plus Fixed Income • International Fixed Income • High Yield Fixed Income • Core Equity • Blended (Balanced) Management • Tactical Asset Allocation • Dynamic Duration • Large Cap Premier Value Equity • Large Cap Classic Value Equity • International Equity • Small Cap Growth Equity WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT FF// San Francisco 9P Minneapolis 9M Los Angeles www.wellscap.com 1 Performance Summary 1 WELLS CAPITALMANAUEMENT City of Newport Beach 358- 127240 Annualized 1997 1998 1999 102000 Inception to Date 12131/96- 12131/97- 12/31/98- 12/31/99- 12/31/90- 12131/97 12131/98 12/31/99 3131/00 3/31/00 City of Newport Beach 6.23% 6.62% 3.37% 1.15% 5.85% Merrill Lynch 1 -2.99 Yr. Treasury Index 6.66% 7.00% 3.06% 1.25% 6.21% ■ City of Newport Beach 8% ■ Merrill Lynch 1 -2.99 Yr. Treasury Index — 6% 4% 2% 0% 1997 1998 1999 1Q2000 Annualized Inceptlon to Date Returns are net of lees 1 WELLS CAPITALMANAUEMENT City of Newport Beach 127240 Portfolio Performance Report- Realized Return For the Period: 12/31/99 thru 3/31/00 Beginning Cost Adjusted Value as of 12/31/99: + Weighted Contributions Weighted Disbursements = Time Weighted Average Cost Adjusted Value Ending Cost Adjusted Value as of 3/31/00: - Beginning Cost Adjusted Value - Non Weighted Contributions + Non Weighted Disbursements = Net Realized Capital Gains + Income Total Realized Rate of Retui K:_ 12,139,743.99 54,945.05 (5,499.10) 12,189,189.95 13,307,344.91 (12,139,743.99) (1,000,000.00) 0.00 167,600.92 1.37 %' Annualized Compound Reafed Return: 5.63 %! LAIFAnnualzed :5.22 %. All returns are net of Wells Fargo Fees. ;. �: 2 Short Duration Review 7.0% — y 6.0% 0 v 5.5% m Treasury Yield Curve .I 5.0% �- 4.5% ;- T , . 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source: Bloomberg Years to Maturity Performance By Maturity 10% . 1'273i179� I 9130199 3731100 Total Return By Sector 041999 5% 1999 Total 4% • rrt 3% 5% 041999 % 1999 Total � �-� 2 1% -15% — -p% - Agencies Corporates Asset Backed Treasuries 1 2 5 10 30 (1 -3 yrs) (1 -3 yrs.) (1 -3 yrs.) (1 -3 yrs.) Source: Meal Lynch Years I Source: Merrill Lynch i WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 0 Short Duration Review 2000 Treasury Yield Curve 6130199 9!30199 12/31199 3131100 3Month 4.76% 4.85% 5.31% 5.89% 6 Month 5.03% 4.96% 5.73% 6.14% 1 Year 5.05% 5.18% 5.96% 6.24% 2 Year 5.52% 5.60% 6.24% 6.48% 5 Year 5.65% 5.76% 6.34% 6.32% 10 Year 5.79% 5.88% 6.44% 6.02% 30 Year 5.97% 6.05% 6.48% 5.84% Source: Bloomberg Total Return by Maturity Q31999 Q41999 1999 Total Q1 2000 1 1.24% 0.66% 4.03% 1.28% 2 1.06% 0.27% 1.90% 0.98% 5 0.84% (0.97 %) (2.54 %) 1.63% 10 0.38% (2.39 %) (8.25 %) 4.04% 30 (1.00 %) (3.98 %) (15.13 %) 8.83% Source: Memll Lynch Total Return by Sector Q31999 Q41999 1999 Total Q1 2000 Agencies (1 -3yrs) 1.05% 0.84% 3.51% 1.13% Corporates (1-3 yrs.) 1.18% 0.91% 3.90% 1.32% Asset Backed (1 -3 yrs.) 1.53% 1.09% 4.83% 1.42% Treasuries (1 -3 yrs.) 1.26% 0.60% 3.06% 1.25% Source: Merrill Lynch WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ■ K Economic Outlook Number of Credd Tlghlening Moves By The Federal Reserve IP Sources: Goldman Sachs, Inc., Stone McCarthy Research, Inc., Bloomberg Financial News, Inc. `III 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Productivity Remains High Non -Farm Sector, Year -Ago % Change Compensation Per Hour 1 '99Q4 1 iverg nce = Product Gro wth Unit Labor Costs* 3185 3186 3187 3188 3189 390 3/91 392 3/93 3/94 3/95 3196 3197 3198 3199 3100 ' Hourly compensation per unit otoutput. Source: WEFA • Above - average gains in labor productivity are contributing to disinflation in the U.S. by suppressing labor costs and reinforcing the slowdown in wage and benefits gains which have been underway since the third quarter of 1998. WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ■ More Tightening Likely? • The current tightening Number Of Moves By The Federal Reserve, Cumulative % Point Change In Fed Funds cycle is still young Rate in Parentheses relative to the duration of 6199- ( +•21 previous tightening 2194 -2195 (3 ° */4 periods. Furthermore, 3188 -2189 (2.88,4 three of the Fed's five recent increases in the Fed 4187 -9187 (+ +25x4 Funds rate should be r 4185 -9185 (o.5r11 considered reversals of the 5183 -3184 (1.5%11 three cuts the Fed made in t8l80-12180 (10.5 %) (1325°-4 response to the global 4418 -3180 financial crisis of 1998. d 4416.5/7 (1.25Y4 The economy's resilience o 61`75-9415 (1.125N leaves the door open to (A multiple, and perhaps 3414 -5414 (7.5 ° even more aggressive rate V2-100 V2-100 hikes in the coming 0 5 0 15 20 25 months. Number of Credd Tlghlening Moves By The Federal Reserve IP Sources: Goldman Sachs, Inc., Stone McCarthy Research, Inc., Bloomberg Financial News, Inc. `III 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Productivity Remains High Non -Farm Sector, Year -Ago % Change Compensation Per Hour 1 '99Q4 1 iverg nce = Product Gro wth Unit Labor Costs* 3185 3186 3187 3188 3189 390 3/91 392 3/93 3/94 3/95 3196 3197 3198 3199 3100 ' Hourly compensation per unit otoutput. Source: WEFA • Above - average gains in labor productivity are contributing to disinflation in the U.S. by suppressing labor costs and reinforcing the slowdown in wage and benefits gains which have been underway since the third quarter of 1998. WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ■ 16 14 12 10 N ae 8 m 6 4 2 0 Economic Outlook A Reacceleration In Wealth Gains *consumers continue to Inflation- Adjusted Household Wealth; $ Trillions And Yr. Ago % Chg M.M. vi s.. J be buoyed by the i_ t d b 'ld in Year -Ago % Chg., "Real" HH Wealth (Lek Scale) 1 . id '99Q4 "Real" HH Wealth, Amount . (Right Scale) 3192 3193 3/94 3195 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow Of Funds 3196 3/97 3198 3199 Rising Oil Prices And The Threat to Economic Growth 10 8 6 i4 u x e 2 t 0 -2 Saudi Crude Oil Price (Right Scale) Real GDP Growth (Left Scale) 12170 12175 12180 12185 12190 12195 Sources: Bloomberg Financial News, Inc., U.S. Commerce Department 59N 1 39 remen ous ut up personal wealth. With 37 wealth gains near 8% 35 for the last year, 30 consumer confidence 33 and spending are likely 31 - to remain at very high 20 levels. 29 Z reduced dependence on 27 oil, though the latest 25 episode of rising fuel 23 costs has been 21 considerably greater • Significant oil price 40 increases have historically been 35 associated with U.S. economic slowdowns. 30 The economy's resilience to periods of 25 V rising oil prices in the 20 1990s may point up its reduced dependence on 15 oil, though the latest episode of rising fuel 10 costs has been considerably greater 5 than the one in the last decade. 0 WELLS CAPI'T'AL MANAGEMENT 0 I I 1 J LJ �1 I 1 Liquidity Management Outlook & Strategy Outlook • Current data on domestic economic activity provides little evidence that a slowdown is underway. The Fed is shifting its focus toward slower overall growth rather than setting inflation targets, which leads us to believe that a number of additional increases in short-term rates are likely. • Intermediate and long -term Treasury rates moved significantly lower in the first quarter. The decision by the federal government to buy back Treasury securities continues to provide support for the market while growing confidence in the Fedk resolve to slow the economy has also been a catalyst for lower rates. With continued technical and fundamental support, Treasury rates should move even lower. Further declines, however, will be increasingly dependent on evidence of slowing economic activity. Strategy • We continue to maintain our portfolio durations positioned neutral to slightly short versus benchmarks in anticipation of further Fed tightenings during 2Q 2000. • The continued inversion in the U.S. Treasury curve and a flattening U.S. Dollar Swap curve leads us to favor short-term investments until the FOMC signals that further rate tightenings are unwarranted. We are also accumulating investments that capture the steepness of the yield curve between one and two years. • Corporate and asset - backed securities consistently provide value without the volatility experienced in other fixed income sectors in this market. Corporate spreads are widening due to declining Treasury yields rather than credit or liquidity concerns, making them an attractive sector. Federal Agency spreads have widened due in part to a bill before Congress that would remove government sponsorship from quasi- government agencies such as FNMA and FHLMC. WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEb1ENT ■ Portfolio Summary City of Newport Beach 358- 127240 as of 3131100 Port 00; tatistics -- - Liquidation Value $13,141,857 Yield to Maturity 5.94% Average Maturity 1.68 years Effective Duration 1.54 years Credit Rating Profile A-1/P-1 0% Aaa 73% Aa 0% A 27% Bea 0% Sector Distribution Effective Maturity Distribution Asset Backed 8% Agencies 44% uses WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ■ Public Financial Management �M + A leading Investment Advisor to Public Agencies: • Focus • Provides investment services exclusively to the public sector • Understands the goals and constraints of the public funds investor PFM does not manage money for foundations, endowments, hospitals or corporations, which are very different types of investors. . Experience /Resources • Over 20 -years of experience • $10- billion in public funds under management • 37 investment professionals • Full-time portfolio managers and accounting staff PFM utilizes 50 to 60 approved broker /dealers who we know typically have the largest selection /best prices for different types of securities to purchase investments for our clients. • Management • Independent investment advice • Active management, not speculation • Balance the risks and rewards PFM is not a broker /dealer and does not profit by selling any particular security. We provide unbiased advice that is in the best interest of our clients. 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