HomeMy WebLinkAbout17 - Revenue & Investment UpdateCITY OF NEWPORT BEACH
CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT
Agenda Item No. 17
October 28, 2008
TO: HONORABLE MAYOR AND MEMBERS OF THE CITY COUNCIL
FROM: Administrative Services Department
Dennis Danner, Director
949 - 644 -3123, ddanner @city.newport- beach.ca.us
SUBJECT: REVENUE AND INVESTMENT UPDATE
PURPOSE:
In light of the instability of the current economic situation, staff has been asked to
provide an update on the status of the City's Investment Portfolio. Staff will also take
this opportunity to review the status of our General Fund revenues.
RECOMMENDATION:
Receive and file.
DISCUSSION:
This staff report covers two different aspects of the City's financial posture. They are
both addressed in the same report because the near -term potential impact of recent
economic developments would probably be first noticed in these areas.
1. Revenue Projections. A review of the City's revenue forecasts, especially in key
areas, is clearly prudent in light of recent developments in the financial markets and the
economy. However, this early in the fiscal year, any projected changes need to be
based more on general conditions than on actual trends in specific revenue categories.
Only a small fraction of the total revenue, especially from the primary sources, has been
received to date. So, apparent variations from the historical norm are, at best, too
tentative at this point to be reliable. Attached to this report are numerical tables and
graphs on which the quantitative sections of this portion of the report are based.
While the City has over 600 revenue accounts, the City's three largest revenue sources
are Property Tax (the largest component of which, by far, is Secured Property Tax),
Sales Tax and Uniform Transient Occupancy Tax (UTOT). Also of particular interest in
Revenue and Investment Update
October 28, 2008
Page 2
these circumstances is a fourth category, Business License Tax. Each one will be
addressed in the paragraphs below.
a. Secured Property Tax. In 2007 -08, Secured Property Tax collections of
$53.1 million represented an 8.6% increase over the prior year actual collections of
$48.9 million. It was also $1.6 million (3.1 %) above the budgeted estimate of
$51.5 million.
For 2008 -09, the City's assessed valuation increased by 6.5 %. This could result in
secured property tax collections of $56.6 million, which would be nearly $2.5 million
over the current budget estimate of $54.1 million. We have not yet received our first
secured property tax apportionment from the County, so we are unable to comment on
collection activity thus far. However, the City typically realizes at least 98% of its
secured property tax levy. Since we were conservative in our original budget estimates,
we should be in good shape by the end of the fiscal year.
b. Uniform Transient Occupancy Tax (UTOT). UTOT collections through September
compare favorably to the prior year. Hotel occupancy has remained relatively high for
this fiscal year. If the collection trend continues, the 2008 -09 collections should readily
exceed the 2007 -08 actual of $11.3 million and the 2008 -09 budget estimate
$11.6 million. On the negative side, general economic conditions would intuitively seem
to indicate a decrease in occupancy and /or room rates. Either of these would adversely
impact UTOT.
But on the positive side, The Resort at Pelican Hill is scheduled to open November 26
with an additional 334 rooms and villas. Both of these assumptions were considered, at
the time the budget estimates were originally prepared nine months ago, but the
magnitude of their relative impacts may well vary from that projection.
At this point our best estimate for UTOT collections for the current fiscal year is that we
will receive at least the current year budget estimate and more than likely will exceed it
by several hundred thousand dollars.
c. Business License Tax. Business License Tax collections through September also
compare favorably to prior year collections. Fiscal Year 2007 -08 collections were
$4.1 million as compared to the current year budget estimate of $4.0 million. However,
a number of different factors may impact the collection rate. Of particular relevance in
this regard will be policy decisions regarding the business tax ordinance made by the
City Council in coming months. At this point, the budgeted estimate of $4.0 million
appears to be readily attainable.
d. Sales Tax. Sales tax generation within Newport Beach is diverse and less reliant on
particular market segments or tax payers than is the case for most cities. This is
illustrated by the chart on the following page.
Revenue and Investment Update
October 28, 2008
Page 3
d. Sales Tax. Sales tax generation within Newport Beach is diverse and less reliant on
particular market segments or tax payers than is the case for most cities. This is
illustrated by the chart on the following page.
Sales Taxes by Business Segment
16% 20%
3%
3%
4%
5% ® 19%
6%
7% 9
8% %
M New Auto Sales - 10
❑ Leasing - 51
■ Miscellaneous Retail - 790
■ Service Stations - 17
■ Funiture / Appliance - 289
E3 Other - 1020
■ Restaurants - 336
0 Department Stores - 33
■Apparel Stores - 185
O Food Markets - 36
■ Misc. Vehicle Sales - 47
Although Sales Tax generation is diverse, it is not immune to the impact of a decline in
consumer confidence. Sales Tax advances thus far initially appear to be disappointing
when compared to the prior year (down 30 %). However, the prior year (2007 -08) may
be the anomaly. When we compare the current advances (2008 -09) to Fiscal Year
2006 -07, the Sales Tax advances are down only 10 %.
We are concerned more about this revenue source than any of the above three but,
again, it is really too early to draw any overall conclusions. In addition to regular
fluctuations with consumer sentiment, it is difficult to decipher the difference between
actual State Board of Equalization collections and Sales Tax advances to the City. We
are hopeful that the more encouraging trends in Property Tax, UTOT and Business Tax
collections will offset the volatility we may realize in Sales Tax Collections.
2. Investment Portfolio. In short, the management of the City's investment portfolio
thus far is good. The City has no direct exposure to any of the defaulting firms that
have been in the news.
Two of the City's investment advisors will be making presentations at the City Council
Meeting of October 28th. Copies of the handouts they will be using are attached to this
report.
Revenue and Investment Update
October 28, 2008
Page 4
In preparation for their presentations, the following is background information on how
the overall investment portfolio is managed.
City investments are governed by State Law and Council Policy F -1 (which is also
attached to this report). Collectively, these documents establish a rather narrow range
of qualifying investment options available to the City. The Council Policy is reviewed
annually and updated as dictated by the advent of new investment instruments,
programs available in the market, and /or as required by State regulations.
Beginning in 1991, the City of Newport Beach has engaged the services of professional
firms to assist in the management of our investments. Specifically, the City has
contractual relationships with five investment advisors and five custodial service firms.
In two cases, the investment advisory service and custodial service are provided by
different divisions of the same financial institution. For the other three investment
advisors, custodial services are provided by an independent firm. In each case, the
third party custodian is under contract to the City, not the investment advisor.
A one page summary of the investment portfolio is presented to the City Council once
per month in the Newsletter. The Newsletter of October 171h contained more
comprehensive information, including the actual reports from the investment advisors.
In the analysis of which City functions to perform by staff and which to perform by
outside "vendors," this one falls in the blended category. In general, cities with larger
investment portfolios than Newport Beach tend to handle a much broader range of
portfolio management tasks by in -house staff, and those with smaller portfolios tend to
do more through external sources. In the latter case, this frequently involves a much
simpler program that relies almost exclusively on the State's Local Agency Investment
Fund (tAIF).
While it is a bit cumbersome at times, we have found that using five different advisors,
rather than just one or two, is worth the effort. Although the parameters of our
Investment Policy preclude much variation or innovation in how these firms manage City
assets, there is still enough leeway that they achieve different results at different times.
We also benefit by getting more diverse expertise - different perspectives from each of
them.
By way of background, we started with three advisors and added two more as the size
of the portfolio increased over time. We have replaced an advisor on three occasions,
but the most recent was several years ago. Our original intent was to regularly replace
the 'weakest" performer, all other things being equal. But there are not a lot of firms
specializing in the management of public sector funds, and we believe we have a good
mix of the best ones at this time. No one of them consistently outperforms, or
underperforms, the others. Our contracts with them are re- negotiated individually and
at different times. Each of the advisors now manages 16% to 19% of the portfolio. The
Revenue and Investment Update
October 28, 2008
Page 5
Each of the advisors has provided information and updates to the City Council or
Finance Committee in the past, and they are all available to do so as requested. In the
interest of avoiding overkill and /or burnout by City Council members, we have normally
scheduled one or two to present at any one meeting. For the meeting of October 28th,
the two who will be presenting are Rod Olea of City National Bank; and Marty Cassell of
Chandler Asset Management.
We selected these two for this particular meeting for several reasons. The City has
been with both firms for a long time. City National is also our primary bank for checking
and other cash management services. Chandler, on the other hand, is one of the three
firms we employ that specializes exclusively in the area of investing government funds.
They are among the foremost firms with expertise in this area and they are first
investment advisor with which we contracted.
In addition to portfolio management, we are in contact with the advisors regularly
regarding routine cash flow needs and any special requirements. They also keep us
posted on changes in law, new investment vehicles, changing conventions in the
market, and even the constantly evolving jargon of the industry. Their participation in
the process of updating the City's Investment Policy is also invaluable.
In keeping with our custom of maintaining independent relationships with each, and to
avoid distortions along the lines of "media bias," the content of their presentations has
not been coordinated. We gave them a time frame and suggested some general
direction, but beyond that, they are on their own. So any differences or similarities that
turn up in their opinions (or conjectures) are not pre - planned.
They will also be available for questions, of course.
Submitted by:
Dennis Danner
Administrative Services Director
Attachments:
A. Quantitative and graphical trend information regarding City Revenues
B. Council Policy F -1
C. Presentation handouts prepared by City National Bank
D. Presentation handouts prepared by Chandler Asset Management
Revenue and Investment Update
October 28, 2008
Page 6
B. Council Policy F -1
C. Presentation handouts prepared by City National Bank
D. Presentation handouts prepared by Chandler Asset Management
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Secured Property Tax Collection Trend
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2009 Trend 2009 Trend by
2006 Actual 2007Artual 200R Rudnet 9nnR Ar i,nl As MAnatorl AV r:�h
Collection Trend
2006 2007 200R. 3Yr Trend Mptiian Rnraad
4,687,051
5,801,360
5,423,967
5,001,180
5,697,905
5,960,174
19,437,816
20,899,553
23,742,382
28,036,536
24,941,492
26,089,525
25,822,417
27,638,819
29,049,269
29,669,307
30,516,404
31,921,044
25,822,417
27,638,819
29,049,887
29,671,222
30,517,053
31,921,723
28,249.097
30,636,477
31,965,945
32,600.817
33,580,386
35,126,058
39,741,373
47,943,899
48,370,818
51,128,343
50,813,788
53,152,697
44,918,035
48,408,589
50,906,385
52,411,807
53,477.415
55.938,927
45,371,305
48,905,823
51,480,000
63,116,666
54,080,000
56,569,249
Collection Trend
2006 2007 200R. 3Yr Trend Mptiian Rnraad
10.33%
11.86%
9.42%
1034%
10.33%
-0.21%
42.84%
42.73%
52.78%
46.12%0
42.84%
-3.28%
56.91%
56.51%
55.86%
56.43%
56.51%
0.09%
56.91%
56.51%
55.86%
56.43%
56.51%
0.08%
62.26%
62.64%
61.38%
62.09%
62.26%
0.17%
87.59%
98.03%
96.26%
93.96%
96.26%
2.30 °h
99.00%
98.98 °k
98.67%
98.89%
98.98%
0.10%
100.00%1
100.00%1
100.00%1
100.00%1
100.00%1
0.0001.
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
UTOT Collection Trend
--*--2006 Actual
'f-2007Actual
2008 Budget
-11- -2008 Actual
-- *-2009 Trend
--0-2009 As Budgeted
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Final
June
2006 Actual 2007Actual 2008 RllfinP..t 9nnR Anti ml 9nOQ Trpnri 9nnQ Ac Ri vinptprt
1,808,743
2,491,597
2,291,466
2,680,855
2,989,961
2,620,652
2,451,204
3,073,510
2,831,141
3,454,358
3,858,533
3,381,942
3,076,951
4,170,378
3,835,404
4,663,536
5,099,028
4,469,216
3,857,308
4,957,569
4,455,191
4,997,740
5,949,270
5,214,439
4,277,447
5,740,929
5,279,804
6,136,471
6,929,477
6,073,575
4,949,440
6,476,828
5,956,594
6,903,203
7,873,147
6,900,686
5,754,202
7,329,552
6,740,826
7,801,686
8,983,894
7,874,238
6,472,111
1 8,065,047
1 7,475,288
1 8,686,882
1 9,997,338
1 8,762,506
7,253,752
9,172,516
8,435,759
9,585,816
11,200,109
9,816,715
7,999,107
9,945,578
9,238,969
10,603,002
12,294,647
10,776,060
8,694,941
10,919,757
10,042,657
11,326,992
13,330,696
11,684,140
Collection Trend
2nOR 9nn7 9noR Wr TrpnA RA.Ai�. c,-A
20.8%
22.8%
23.7%
22.4%
22.8%
0.4%
28.2%
28.1%
30.5%
28.9%
28.2%
-0.8%
35.4%
38.2%
41.2%
38.3%
38.2%
-0.1%
44.4%
45.4%
44.1%
44.6%
44.4%
-0.3%
49.2%
52.6%
54.2%
52.0%
52.6%
0.6%
56.9%
59.3%
60.9%
59.1%
59.3%
0.3%
66.2%
67.1%
68.97/0
67.4%
67.1%
-0.3%
74.4%
73.9%l
76.7%
75.0%
74.4%
-0.6%
83.4%
84.0%
84.6%
84.0%
84.0%
0.0%
92.0%
91.1%
93.6%
92.2%
92.0%
-0.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
Business License Collection Trend
c nnn Ann
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
2006 Actual 2007Aetual 2008 8udeet 2008 Actual 2009 Trend 2009 Ac Rt AneteA
830,909
877,728
774,028
912,128
1,088,035
884,309
1,100,426
1,191,750
1,029,583
1,191,963
1,447,264
1,176,275
1,325,337
1,455,404
1,247,207
1,439,294
1,753,173
1,424,904
1,639,533
1,748, 008
1, 507,507
1,711,631
2,119,072
1,722,291
2,099,769
2,220,592
1,916,187
2,160,188
2,693,544
2,189,198
2,530,086
2,573,442
2,290,708
2,649,766
3,220,001
2,617,080
2,864,207
2,932,362
2,594,464
2,983,297
3,646,984
2,964,113
3,069,827
1 3,170,019
1 2,829,270
1 3,340,962
1 3,977,046
1 3,232,374
3,430,745
3,469,170
3,139,039
3,710,709
4,412,482
3,586,278
3,663,967
3,775,518
3,465,0001
4,120,5861
4,880,1131
3,958,680
3,848,381
1 3,770,1721
3,463,586 1
4,119,173
1 4,870,678
1 3,958,680
Collection Trend
2006 2n07 7008 3Vr Trcnrl MoAian Rnrnari
21.6%
23.3%
22.1%
22.3%
22.1%
-0.2%
28.6%
31.6%
28.9%
29.7%
28.9%
-0.8%
34A%
38.6%
34.9%
36.0%
34.9%
-1.1%
42.6%
46.4%
41.6%
43.5%
42.6%
-0.9%
54.6%
58.9%
52.4%
55.3%
54.6%
-0.7%
65.7%
68.3%
64.3%
66.1%
65.7%
-0.4%
74.4%
77.8%
72.4%
74.9%
74.4%
-0.5%
79.8%
84.1%
81.1%
81.7%1
81.1%
-0.5%
89.1%
92.5%
90.1%
90.6%
90.1%
-0.5%
100.4%
100.1%
100.0%
100.2%
100.1%
0.1%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0 "/0
25,000,000
20,000,000
15.000,000
10,000.000
5,000,000
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Final June
Sales Tax Collection Trend
-2006 Actual
- 2007ACtlia1
2008 Bud ®et
-11--200e Actual
�2009 Trend
- 2009 As Budgeted
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Final
June
2006 Actual 2007ACtual 200A Rnrinet 9110R AMi ial 9nno T,.M 9nno A. RudnutM
2,136,208
1,764,688
2,192,810
2,399,418
1,669.969
2,236,667
3,457.855
3,142,323
3,656,036
3,905,192
2,817,659
3,729,159
5,122,304
5,014,323
5,603,972
5,966,892
4,318,905
5,716,051
7,793,151
7,376,293
7,364,270
5,966,892
5,690,956
7,531,955
9,164,572
8,927,993
9,777,301
9,984,808
7,535,232
9,972,847
11,011,472
10.973,553
11,906,643
12,210,508
9.176,288
12,144,776
13,030.715
12,959, 506
13,778,739
13, 557,059
10,619,087
14, 054, 314
14,255,572
14.225,523
15,116,413
14,907,218
11,650,014
15,418,742
15,907,572
15,947,923
16, 930,652
16,742,518
13,048,223
17,269265
18,003.156
18.302,247
19, 239,022
18,97 4,994
14,827.253
19,623,803
21,465,557
21,662,440
22,877,127
22,535,765
17,631,090
23,334,670
Collection Trend
2006 2007 9nnR aVr Tf .H Manua AnmaA
10.0%
8.1%
10.6%
9.6%
10.0%
0.4 %
16.1%
14.5%
17.3%
16.0%
16.1%
0.1%
23.9%
23.1%
26.5%
24.5%
23.9%
-016%
36.3%
34.1%
26.5%
32.3%
34.1%
1.8%
42.7%
41.2%
44.3%
42.7%
42.7%
0.0%
51.3%
50.7%
54.2%
52.0%
51.3%
-0.7%
60.7%
59.8%
60.2%
60.2%
60.2%
-0.1%
66.4%
65.7%
66.1%
66.1%
66.1%
0.1%
74.1%
73.6%
74.3Y°
74.0%
74.1%
0.1%
83.9%
84.5%
83.9Y°
64.1Yo
83.9%
-0.2Yo
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%1
100.0%1
00.0%
100.0%1
100.0%
O.OY°
STATEMENT OF INVESTMENT POLICY
PURPOSE
F -1
To set forth the City's policy concerning the investment of temporarily idle funds. It is
the policy of the City to invest funds not required for immediate expenditures.
Investments will be in compliance with governing provisions of law and the policy
contained herein. Primary investment goals are security of principal, adequate liquidity
maintenance, and yield, in that order. Investments shall be placed only in securities as
outlined below. The balance between various investment instruments may change in
order to provide the City with the best combination of yield, liquidity, and a
consideration for other factors, such as placement of an appropriate percentage of
available investment funds locally. It shall be the main responsibility of the City
Council, in adopting this policy and reviewing the investment holdings on a monthly
basis, to preserve the investment principal.
INVESTMENT AUTHORITY
Under the direction of the City Manager, the investment authority has been delegated
to the Director of Administrative Services, who is responsible for administration of the
City's investment program, and who shall thereafter provide a monthly report
regarding the status and changes in the City's investment portfolio to the City Council.
This authority shall be renewed annually as part of the review and update of this
Policy. In addition to the monthly investment report that is submitted to the City
Council, the Administrative Services Director shall provide more detailed investment
information to the City Council as requested. The City Council shall be briefed directly
by the City's investment advisors on a quarterly basis whenever possible.
Sections 53600 -53601 of the California Government Code provide basic investment
limits and guidelines for government entities. In the event an apparent discrepancy is
found between this policy and Sections 53600 -53601, the more restrictive parameters
will take precedence.
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
The City shall not deposit funds with any financial institution not receiving a minimum
overall satisfactory rating for meeting the credit needs of California Communities in its
most recent evaluation ( §53635.2).
1
F -1
LIQUIDITY
Sufficient funding to accommodate at least two- week's projected cash outflow is to be
maintained in immediately available investments, such as the State Local Agency
Investment Fund, maturing certificates of deposit, or similar liquid instruments. An
analysis of cash flow must be conducted at least weekly to serve as the basis for
determining appropriate maturities for investments. At no time shall the liquid cash on
hand be less than 5 percent of the City's total investment portfolio. For purposes of this
policy, cash on hand includes all cash and investments accessible within 48 hours.
ACCEPTABLE INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS
The following are types of investments made by the City and the guidelines for
investing in each. In all cases, investments shall be made in the context of the "Prudent
Investor Standard," spelled out in the California Government Code, Section 53600.3 as
follows:
"When investing, reinvesting, purchasing, acquiring, exchanging, selling,
or managing public funds, a trustee shall act with care, skill, prudence,
and diligence under the circumstances then prevailing, including, but not
limited to, the general economic conditions and the anticipated needs of
the agency, that a prudent person acting in a like capacity and familiarity
with those matters would use in the conduct of funds of a like character
and with like aims, to safeguard the principal and maintain the liquidity
needs of the agency. Within the limitations of this section and considering
individual investments as part of an overall strategy, investment may be
acquired as authorized by law."
In this light, the City of Newport Beach does not purchase or sell securities on margin.
Additionally, any institution, which holds either the collateral or the investment
instruments themselves in safekeeping for the City, must maintain at least one billion
dollars ($1,000,000,000) in assets.
A. Certificates of Deposit
Only fully collateralized certificates of deposit with FDIC insured institutions
will be utilized in investment of City funds. Government securities having a
market value of 110 percent of the total amount of investment are acceptable as
2
F -1
collateral. Noncollateralized CD investments may be made in amounts less than
$100,000 so long as they are fully insured by the FDIC.
Not more than 10 percent of the City's investment portfolio shall be invested in
certificates of deposit with any one institution. CD's will not be placed for a
period of longer than one year. Further, an institution must meet the following
criteria to be considered by the City:
1. The institution must maintain at least $1 billion in assets ($100 million for
fully insured CD's of $100,000 or less).
2. The institution must have been in business at least three years.
3. The institution must have a net worth to asset ratio of at least 6 percent.
4. The institution must place and maintain on file with the City an audited
financial statement not more than one year old.
5. Interest shall be paid to the City on a monthly basis.
B. Negotiable Certificates of Deposit
As a matter of policy, the City invests in Negotiable Certificates of Deposit only
with US. Banks whose underlying securities are rated A -1 or P -1 by one of the
top two rating agencies and having assets in excess of $10 billion, so as to insure
security and a large, well-established secondary market. Ease of subsequent
marketability is further ascertained prior to initial investment by examining
currently quoted bids by primary dealers and the acceptability of the issuer by
these dealers. No one issuer shall exceed more than 10 percent of the portfolio,
and maturity shall not exceed one year. The California Government Code
Section 53601 limits investment in negotiable certificates of deposit to 30 percent
of the portfolio.
C. Bankers Acceptances
The City may invest only in Bankers Acceptances issued by the lil0 largest banks
in the world, which are eligible for purchase by the Federal Reserve System, the
short term paper of which is rated at the highest category by Moody's and
Standard & Pooi's. In the case of foreign banks, the Bankers Acceptances must
3
F -1
be written by their US. branches. Maximum maturity shall be 180 days. No
more than 30 percent of the City's overall investment portfolio shall be placed in
Bankers Acceptances, with no more than 10 percent of the City's portfolio
invested in the banker's acceptances of any one commercial bank.
D. US. Treasury Issues
The City may invest in treasury notes, bills and bonds. Maximum maturity of
any US. Treasury issue shall be five years.
E. Federal Agency or United States Government - Sponsored Enterprise Obligations
Securities of this type that are acceptable for the City's investments are Federal
National Mortgage Association, Federal Home Loan Bank notes, Federal
National Mortgage Association notes, Federal Farm Credit Bank notes, Federal
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation notes, or any other U. S. Government Agency
security.
F. Commercial Paper
The City may only invest in commercial paper of "prime" quality with the
highest ranking or of the highest letter and number rating as provided for by a
nationally recognized statistical- rating organization (NRSRO). The entity that
issues the commercial paper shall meet all of the following conditions in either
paragraph (1) or paragraph (2).
1. The entity meets the following criteria: (A) Is organized and operating in
the United States as a general corporation. (B) Has total assets in excess of
five hundred million dollars ($500,000,000). (C) Has debt other than
commercial paper, if any, that is rated "A" or higher by a nationally
recognized statistical- rating organization.
2. The entity meets the following criteria: (A) Is organized within the United
States as a special purpose corporation, trust, or limited liability company.
(B) Has program wide credit enhancements including, but not limited to,
over collateralization, letters of credit, or surety bond. (C) Has
commercial paper that is rated "A -1" or higher, or the equivalent, by a
nationally recognized statistical- rating organization
4
F -1
Commercial paper shall be used solely as a short -term investment not to exceed
270 days. No more than 25 percent of the City's portfolio may be invested in
commercial paper. Investment in commercial paper of any one issuer shall not
exceed 10 percent of the portfolio.
G. Repurchase Agreements ( Repos) and Reverse Repurchase Agreements
Repos and reverse repos shall be used solely as a short -term investment not to
exceed 30 days. The institution from which the City purchases a Repo must
deliver adequate collateral to the City's safekeeping account (either directly or
through a third party safekeeping agent), consisting of U.S. Treasury or Agency
securities at the rate of 102 percent of the face value of the repo. The amount of
this collateral must be sufficient to compensate for fluctuating market conditions.
Repos will only be purchased from Primary Dealers.
The City must own assets for more than 30 days before they can be used as
collateral for a reverse repurchase agreement. No more than 10 percent of the
portfolio can be involved in reverse repos.
H. Passbook Savings Accounts
Savings accounts may be used as a repository for customer deposits, or for
similar purposes. Consistent with the requirements for CD investments, funds
deposited in savings accounts must either be FDIC insured or collateralized.
I. Local Agency Investment Fund (LATE) (State of California)
State Regulation of LAW is set forth in California Government Code Section
16429.1. The current limits on any one City investment in this fund is $40
million, and the number of transactions (deposits or withdrawals) is limited to 15
per month. The City's participation in LAIF shall conform to State Regulation.
In general, it is the City's intention to use investment in LAIF as a temporary
repository for short -term funds needed for liquidity purposes. The
Administrative Services Director shall maintain on file appropriate information
concerning LAIF's current investment policies, practices and performance; as
well as its requirements for participation, including, but not limited to,
limitations on deposits or withdrawals and the composition of the portfolio.
5
F -1
J. County Investment Funds
Los Angeles County provides a service similar to LAW for municipal and other
government entities. This Fund is available to certain cities outside of Los
Angeles County, including Newport Beach. Investment in this pool is intended
to be used as a temporary repository for short -term funds used for liquidity
purposes. At no time shall more than 5 percent of the City's total investment
portfolio be placed in this Pool. The Administrative Services Director shall
maintain on file appropriate information concerning the county pool's current
investment policies, practices and performance; as well as its requirements for
participation, including, but not limited to, limitations on deposits or
withdrawals and the composition of the portfolio.
The City shall not invest funds with the Orange County Pool.
K_ Medium Term Corporate Bonds /Notes
Investments of this type will only be in corporations rated A or better by
nationally recognized rating services. Maximum term to maturity for individual
securities shall not exceed four years. No more than 30 percent of the City's
investment funds shall be placed in securities of this type.
L. Mortgage - backed Securities and Asset - backed Securities
Investments in securities of this type are limited to mortgage - backed pass -
through securities issued by a US government agency; or consumer receivable
pass - through certificates or bonds. Securities eligible for investment under this
subdivision shall be issued by an issuer having an "A" or higher rating for the
issuer's debt as provided by Moody's Investor Services and S&P. The security
itself shall be rated in a rating category of "AAA" or its equivalent or better by
Moody's Investor Services and S&P. The maximum final stated maturity of any
security of this type shall be five years. No more than 20% of the City's
investment funds shall be placed in securities of this type.
M. Municipal Bonds
Municipal bonds rated AAA, or AA and insured, are acceptable investments for
the City. Investments of this type are limited to obligations of the State of
6
F -1
California and local agencies within the State. Not more than 15 percent of the
portfolio shall be in investments of this type.
N. Money Market Funds
The City may invest in Money Market Funds subject to the following constraints.
Investment in these funds is primarily intended for short -term "sweep account"
purposes, not for longer -term investments.
1. Shares of beneficial interest issued by diversified management companies
that are money market funds registered with the Securities and Exchange
Commission under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. Sec.
80a -1.)
2. The company shall have met either of the following criteria:
a. Attained the highest ranking or the highest letter and numerical
rating provided by not less than two nationally recognized
statistical rating organizations.
b. Retained an investment adviser registered or exempt from
registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission with not
less than ten years' experience managing money market mutual
funds with assets under management in excess of one billion
dollars ($1,000,000,000).
3. The purchase price of shares of beneficial interest purchased shall not
include any commission that the companies may charge.
4. No more than 20 percent of the City's investment portfolio shall be
invested in money market funds.
5. The City shall invest only in Money Market Funds that have a policy of
maintaining a constant daily net asset value per share of $1.00.
7
F4
N ku \��
Consistent with California Government Code 53601.6, inverse floaters, range notes,
mortgage derived interest -only strips, or any security that could result in zero interest
accrual if held to maturity are specifically prohibited, except to the extent that they are
shares of diversified management companies registered under the Investment
Company Act of 1940.
The City shall not purchase any security rated Al and or A+ or below if that security
has been placed on "credit watch" for a possible downgrade by either Moody's Investor
Services or Standard and Poor's.
Investments not specifically approved by this policy are prohibited.
ASSET /INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AGREEMENTS
The City may employ the services of asset/ investment management companies. Such
companies must have a history of producing no losses and relatively high net returns.
They must also be well established and exceptionally reputable. Members of the staffs
of such companies who will have primary responsibility for managing the City's
investments must have a working familiarity with the special requirements and
constraints of investing municipal funds in general and this City's funds in particular.
They must contractually agree to conform to all provisions of governing law and the
collateralization and other requirements contained herein. At no time shall more than
30 percent of the City's total investment portfolio be placed in any one investment
management account. In order to implement this requirement, the City's portfolio
assets will be reallocated annually among its investment managers.
SAFEKEEPING /THIRD PARTY CUSTODIANS
All cash and securities in the City's portfolio, including those that are being managed
by private sector asset/ investment management companies, shall be held in
safekeeping in the City's name by a third party bank trust department, acting as agent
for the City under the terms of a custody agreement executed by the bank and the City .
The City will contract separately with major banks or other well-established, reputable
financial institutions, which provide custodial services to maintain custody of cash and
securities in the City's portfolio. In the case of a major financial institution, the City
may have an asset/ investment management relationship, and a custodial relationship,
with the same entity. However, the services must be provided by separately managed
8
F -1
departments within that entity, and the City's assets must be held in the City's name
completely separate and distinct from the assets of the institution and from all other
portfolios managed by the institution.
All securities will be received and delivered using standard delivery versus payment
(DVP) procedures, the City's safekeeping agent will only release payment for a security
after the security has been properly delivered. The only exception to the foregoing shall
be depository accounts and securities purchases made with: (i) local government
investment pools; and, (ii) money market mutual funds, since the purchased securities
are not deliverable.
BOND PROCEEDS
The investment of bond proceeds will be made in accordance with applicable bond
indentures.
RATING AGENCY CHANGES
In the event a security held by the City is the subject of a rate drop which brings it
below accepted minimums specified herein, or the security is placed on negative credit
watch, where downgrade could result in a rate drop below acceptable levels, the
investment advisor who purchased the security will immediately notify the
Administrative Services Director or Deputy Director of that fact. The course of action to
be followed will then be decided on a case by case basis, considering such factors as the
reason for the rate drop, prognosis for recovery or further drop, and market price of the
security. The City Council will be advised of the situation and intended course of
action by e-mail or fax.
REPORTING REQUIREMENTS
In addition to the Monthly Investment Report, the City Council and City Manager shall
receive a detailed quarterly listing of all investments in the City portfolio. The report
must show the type of investment, issuer, date of maturity, par and dollar amount of
deposit/ investment, and rate of interest. Quarterly reports from outside investment
managers must also include market valuation of assets under their management and
the source of that valuation, and shall also include a statement of compliance with
investment policy. Current ratings of non - government securities, either Moody's or
Standard & Poor s, will be included.
F -1
In his report to Council, the Director of Administrative Services shall include a
statement denoting the ability of the City to meet its expenditures for the next six
months, and shall also include a statement of compliance with investment policy for
assets under his direct management. In addition, the City Council shall be notified
whenever 5 percent or more of the total portfolio is invested, withdrawn, or moved
from one Investment Advisor or Pool to another.
Adopted - April 6,1959
Amended - November 9,1970
Amended - February 11, 1974
Amended - February 9,1981
Amended - October 27,1986
Rewritten - October 22,1990
Amended - January 28,1991
Amended - January 24,1994
Amended - January 9,1995
Amended - April 2Z, 1996
Corrected - January 27,1997
Amended - February 24,1997
Amended - May 26,1998
Reaffirmed - March 2Z, 1999
Reaffirmed - March 14, 2000
Amended & Reaffirmed - May 8, 2001
Amended & Reaffirmed - April 23, 2002
Amended & Reaffirmed - April 8, 2003
Amended & Reaffirmed - April 13, 2004
Amended & Reaffirmed - September 13, 2005
10
CITY {NATIONAL BANK
The way up.•
City of Newport Beach
Portfolio Review
October 22, 2008
Rod Olea
Director of Fixed Income
Table of Contents
Section 1 Economic & Market Outlook 2008
Section 2 City of Newport Beach
CITY NATIONAL BANK
The way up.•
Economic and Market Outlook 2008
• • •
TIME LINE OF EVENTS
In the nest 1 1/2 years, many events have lead up to credit crisis we are now in.
1,600
—
1.500
7.00
1,400
1,300
6.00
AIG rescued by Fed
New Century Find.
1,200
Files Chapter 11
4.00
Apr. 2
1,100
Bank Bailout
1,000
900
800
0.00
Jan -07 Apr -07
-S &P 500 (Is) — Federal Funds (rs)
Home price Y Jt/U't BofA buys G�untrywide
fall yo -y � r �
Jun.1
Ameriquest goes
ou of business
Aug. OPM
6ys
bsc
Fed cuts Fed annou
fed funds -Term Auction Ofitr
rate first Oec. 12
time in
Fed cuts Discount 4 -Years Surprise . FNMA/FHLMC placed into
Rate Sep. 18 Intermeetini Conservatorship
Aug. 17 Rate Cut f Sep. 7
i i.
Jul -07 Oct -07 Jan -08 Apr -08 Jul -08
Page I of 15
■`—acq
NII acquired by BofA
8.00
L 14
7.00
Lehman files Chapter 11
Sep. 15
6.00
AIG rescued by Fed
Sep. 16
5.00
TARP Approved
4.00
International
3.00
Bank Bailout
2.00
1.00
0.00
Oct -08 Jan -09
CM'NATKMALBA"K
The way .p
VOLATILITY
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan -00 Jan -02
Source: CBOE, CNAM
Volatility of the S &P 500 - VIX Index Volatility of the Bond Market - MOVE Index
250,00
225.00
200.00
175.00
150.00
125.00
100.00
75.00
50.00
25.00
0.00
Jan -00 Jan -02 Jan -04
Source: Merrill Lynch, CNAM
Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
Jan -06 Jan -08
CITY NATIONAL BANK
n,r war up.
• Pag115 •
• 0 •
THEECONOMY
Outlook for economic growth is being marked down significantly to reflect a much more difficult financing environment.
While TARP is likely to help, credit conditions are not expected to improve dramatically anytime soon.
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2.0
Mar -00 Mar -02 Mar -04
Source: BEA. BLOOMBERG, CNAM
Real GDP (% chg, annualized)
Y -0.Y
Forecast
Mar -06 Mar -08 Mar -10
Contribution to GDP (% chg)
4.0
3.0
2.0
nwir
1.0
Euwrts
0.0
—
-1.0
-z.o - --
GDP Government Investment Consumption Net Exports
Source: BEA, CNAM
Page 3 of 15
CITY NATIONAL BANK
I
rbe way us.
EMPLOYMENT
September's NFP decrease of 159,000, is the largest decline since 2003.
There has been nine consecutive months of job losses, totaling 983,000 jobs.
The 6.1 % unemployment rate, which is up from 5.0% in April, is at the highest in five years.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan -70 Jan -80
Source: BLS, CNAM
Unemployment Rate (%)
Jan -90 Jan -00
• Pag 05
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
Jan -00 Jan -02
Source: BLS, CNAM
Change in Non Farm Payrolls ('000)
Jan -04 Jan-06 Jan -08
Cmr NATIONAL BAuK
The way up'
•
. • •
WHAT DETERMINES A RECESSION
The business cycle is determined the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
It is defined as significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,
normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale - retail sales.
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Dec -00 Dec -02
Source: BEA. CNAM
Real Disposable Income (% change, yoy)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0 - --
Dec-00 Dec-02
Source: BEA. CNAM
Dec -04 Dee-08 Dec-08
Total Payrolls (% change, troy)
77777 ___1
Dec -04 Dec 06 Dec -08
Industrial Production (% change. y4 y)
6 —
4
2
0
_2
-6 --
Deooa Dec -02
Source: FRB, CNAM
Deo-04 Dec-o8 Deo08
Retail Sales (% change, yoy)
12.0
-
10.0
Y�y —Trend
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
—
Dee -00
Dec -02 Dec -04
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, CNAM
Page 5 of 15
Dec -O6
Dec -08
CrFYNATIONALBAlmK
Thr wuy up V
THE FED
Fed officials are apt to react to economic weakness by cutting interest rates.
The stabilization of short-term financing markets is a high priority for the Fed.
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan -00 Jan -02
Source: FRB, CNAM
Federal Funds Rate and Risk Assessment
In�Groyb
�Weaknass
balanced
`Deflation
111111=11DIslnflation
Date Depandentinflabon Watch
-Risk to Gran
JrMOownside Rusk
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIntermeeting
saaaaaki Funds
Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
• Page65
20.0
16.0
12.0
8.0
4.0
Federal Funds Rate ( %)
Penn Square
Masico/BtarlWenezuela Default
Franklin National
bank F jis Continental
nlings Fails
56l Crislsrtieal
K/
Estate Mehlonn
Tisch woes
�
�-/ Aslarttuseie/� M
/
A
0.0 1
Jan -70 Jan -80
Source: FRB, CNAM
Stock Market `J
Crash Orange County/
MeaicolkUdder Peabody
Jan -90 Jan -00
CttrNATIONALBANK
The way ap.
•
0
SELECTED INTEREST RATES
The Fed has towered the funds rate by 375 basis points, from 5.25% to 1.50 %.
Due to the credit crises, corporate funding and mortgage rates have increased.
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Jun -07 Sep -07 Dec-07 Mar -08
Source. Bloomberg, Bankrate.com, CNAM
Selected Interest Rates t %)
Fed Funds Target Rate —10•yr Treasury Rate
ALB Corporate Index —30-yr FR Conv. Mort.
X30 -yr FR Jumbo Mort.
Jun -08 Sep-08
Page 7 of 15
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
Change in Interest Rates Since June 2007
3.13
1.27
0.25
3.75
Fed Funds 10 -yr Treasury LB Corporate 30 -yr FR 30 -yr FR
Target Rate Rate Index Conv. Mort. Jumbo Mort.
Source: Stoomberm Bankrate.00m. CNAM
QwKATmmALBANK
the way up � ,I
FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICY & THE DOLLAR
The recent rally in the US dollar has been part of an unexpected transformation in the currency and capital markets.
The greenback is on the cusp of breaking a six -year downtrend against the world currencies.
Recent gains in the dollar, however, are less a reflection of US strength and more indicative of weakness abroad.
130.00 —
120.00
110.00 ON
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
Jan -00
Dollar Index
`m
0
9
m`
m
c
N
Jan -02 Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
• Pag05
US Dollar vs Major Currencies
—Euro (Is) —Pound (Is) Canadian (Is) —Yen (rs)
2.5000 —
2.0000
1.5000
1.0000
0.5000
0.0000
Jan-07 Jul -07 Jan-08 Jul -08 Jan -09
140 .00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
C17Y NATIONAL BANK V
1 he war �rt�
C I
ENERGY
Although oil prices have retreated from record highs, gasoline prices are still well above levels of 12- months ago.
Oil -WTI ($ per barrel)
180.00
140.00
120.00 -
100.00
Sept. 2007
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Jan -95 Jan -98 Jan -01 Jan -04 Jan -07
Source: Bloomberg, CNAM
Gasoline ($ per gallon)
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
Pt.
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan -95 Jan -98 Jar-01 Jan -04 Jan -07
Source: DOE,
Page 9 of 15
Natural Gas ($ per MMBtu)
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00 S�pt.
4.00
2.00
0.00
Jan -95 Jan -98 Jan -01 Jan -04 Jan -07
Source: Bloomberg, CNAM
Cm NAT#oNAL BANK
Th. way gyp- I
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
It has fallen to the lowest level since February 1992, down 50% since the recent peak of last July.
The expectations component is the gloomiest on record.
This is a lagging index, hitting the low point at the end of a recession or slightly afterwards.
Consumer Confidence
150 -- -_--
125
100
75
50
25
0
Jan -70 Jan -80 Jan -90
Source: Conference Board, CNAM
Jan -00
Consumer Confidence in Previous Crisis Periods
1 140 --
Asian Cnsa LCTM1Ru
130 Begma .'W
T
12 Cram L/J rape SJEprime Credit
cgimpae spuee:e
MaXIrp10
110 ange Nalnne
etteslon County
Enron
100 9111 Wmy
Oom
90 Oesen
Sn1eM
80
Iraq
I 70 Iraq
We 11 cu 1
50 RBfArtl
Pn
so
_ 40
DU Jul Aug Jan opc JJI Sep Mar Sep Jan Sep Mar Aug Jan Jul Jul Sep
1987 1990 1990 1991 1994 1997 1998 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2005 2007 8007 2008 2008
OTY NATiomALBANKVI
• Pa90 15 •
• • •
CONSUMPTION
Weakness is widespread, as vehicles, furniture, clothing and electronics all showed sales decline.
Robust income can no longer offset the steep rise in energy prices.
With gasoline prices continuing to hit new records, high energy costs will continue to restrain discretionary spending.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Jan -94 Jan -96 Jan -98 Jan -00 Jan -02 Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CNAM
Retail Sales (% chg, y-o -y)
Consumer Credit (% chg, y-o-y)
—Non Revolving — Revolving
Page 11 of 15
-09
CmrNwnom^LBANK
The waY �P' RFF���
INFLATION
The September data (0.0 %) finallystarted to show significant evidence of price relief in response to waning consumer demand
The predominant factor weighing on inflation is the decline in energy prices since July.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan -00 Jan -02
Source: BLS, CNAM
Inflation Reports (% change, yo-y)
Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -06
Selected Components of CPI (% change, yo-y)
45.0
35.0
31 7
25.0
15.0
6.0
5.0
3.2
-5.0
3.1
-15.0
Gasoline Food& Bev. Medical Used Cars
Source: BLS, CNAM
CITY NATIONAL BANK I'
0 Pa* 15 •
• • 0
FEDERAL BUDGET
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO, CNAM
Federal Budget
Actual (is) . of GDP (rs)
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-0.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
Page 13 of 15
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mar -70 Mar -80
Source: U.S. Treasury, CNAM
Federal Receipts and Outlays (Trailing 12- month, $bil.)
Net Receipts —Net Outlays
Mar -90 Mar -00
CITY NATIONAL BANK
f
Th.
INTEREST RATES
8 —
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan -00
Interest Rates ( %)
—Fed Funds
—2-yr
— 5 -yr
10-yr
30-yr
Jan -02 Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
• Pageg15
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Jan -55
Slope of Yield Curve (10 -yr minus 1•yr) ( %)
Jan -65 Jan -75 Jan -85 Jan -95 Jan -05
CITY NATIONAL BANKI
•
LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan -00
Selected Money Market Rates ( %)
—Target Fed Funds —3 -mo. T bill —3 -mo. LIBOR
Jan -02 Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
• 0
Page 15 of 15
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan -00
TED Spread ( %)
Jan -02 Jan -04 Jan -06 Jan -08
CITY NATIONAL BANK
I
The-.,.,
CITY NATIONAL BANK
The way up. , tl
City of Newport Beach
0 0 0
• • 0
City of Newport Beach — 471630021
Summary
. Key objective has been safety and liquidity.
. Invested most assets in high quality corporate issues with higher accrual than treasuries.
. Treasury rates plummeted when credit crunch moved to credit crisis.
City of Newport Beach — 471630021
Asset Allocation as of 10/17/08
Fixed Income
53%
Cash &
Equivalents
47%
E
MARKET VALUE: COST:
IND INCOME:
YLD (%)
ON:
(000) $
$ (000) $
%
$
%
MKT
COST
CASH & EQUIVALENTS 12,956
47 12,956
47
194,343
22
1.49
1.49
FIXED INCOME 14,554
53 14,568
53
704,900
78
4.84
4.83
---------
TOTAL 27,510
--- ---------
100 27,524
---
100
-- - -- --
899,243
---
100
----- -----
3.26
3.26
E
• • •
City of Newport Beach — 471630021
Portfolio Characteristics as of 10/17/08
Maturity Schedule
100%
■ 0 -3 Years
Quality Ratings (Moody's)
5% 5% 7%
83%
Treasury ■ Agency
■ AAA AA
City of Newport Beach — 471630021
Performance Summary as of 9/30/08
Portfolio Merrill Lynch 1 -3 Year Treasury Index
Yield to Maturity: 3.21% 2.376%
Coupon Rate: 4.98% - - --
Duration: 1.29 years 1.595 years
Total Return (1/1/08 — 9/30/08): 2.19% n/a
Fixed Income Return (1/1/08 — 9/30/08): 2.68% 3.82%
Total Return (1/1/97 — 9/30/08) *: 5.00% n/a
Fixed Income Return (1/1/97 — 9/30/08) *: 5.13% 5.04%
*Since Inception. Return is annualized.
is is •
0
• •
Investment Report
City of Newport Beach
Period Ending
September 30, 2008
9255 Towne Centre Drive I Suite 350 1 San Diego. CA 92121 -3039 1 Phone 800 317.4747 1 Fax 858.546.3741 1 www.chandlerassec.com
�►,J ECONOMIC UPDATE
■ The financial markets are suffering a severe crisis related to the housing market's
correction and its impact upon global financial institutions' capital and liquidity. There is
concern that financial market conditions may result in slower economic growth in the
months ahead.
• The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 1.50% in an inter - meeting move on
October 6th. The Fed acted in conjunction with the European Central Bank, the Bank of
England, and other global central banks. In a joint statement, the central banks said "the
recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and
thus diminished further the upside risks to price stability." The rate cuts represented the
latest efforts by policy makers to counteract the ongoing credit and liquidity crisis. The next
regularly scheduled FOMC meeting is October 29, 2008.
■ The yield curve retains a normal, positive slope; that is, longer -term securities yield more
than shorter -term ones.
• 9255 Towne Centre Drive 1 Suite 350 1 San Diego, 421.3039 1 Phone 800.317.4747 1 Fax 858.546.3741 1 www.chandlerasset.cd 2
,► I EMPLOYMENT and HOUSING
Non -farm Payroll (000's)
250
200
150
100
0 50
0
o p
50
- 100
200
The September non -farm payroll employment report showed a
decrease of 159,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained at
6.1 %. The payroll data reflected the ninth consecutive month of
negative job growth. September's employment report reinforces
the recent financial market concern about a slowing economy
impacting the labor markets.
Starts -Single Family
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
$ 800
0
600
400
200
0 100i
e e e e e e e e
Soume: Bloomberg
Single- family housing starts declined by 12.9% in September, to a
544,000 annual pace, the lowest since January 1991. This follows
August's reading of 618,000. The fall in housing starts is
supporting the financial market concern that the decline in the
housing market has not yet run its course.
j®11 INTEREST RATES
Yield on the Two -Year Note
September 2006 through September 2008
5.50% -- — — —
5.00
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
m co r-- r` r` r` n r` co 00 ro to co
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N O cC6 @ (0 O Q 0 to (q T 5 Q
c4 Z In Z t� 2 5 1 (n
Source. Bloomberg
The yield on the two -year Treasury note declined sharply in September as market
participants sought safety amidst the financial market volatility.
• 9255 Towne Centre Drive I Suite 350 1 San Diego, 9121 -3039 1 Phone 800.317.4747 1 Fax 858.546.3741 1 www.chandlerasset16 4
chi
Agency
46.0%
•
ACCOUNT PROFILE
City of Newport Beach, California
* 1 -3 yr Treasury
September 30, 2008
Sector Distribution
rporate
4%
Commercial Paper
5.1%
Money Market
Fund FI
0.4%
i Treasury
24.1%
September 30, 2007
i Corporate
21.0%
Commercial Paper
5.7%
Money Market
Fund FI
0.1%
IS Treasury
18.3%
9/3012008
9/30/2007
Benchmark* Portfolio
Portfolio
Average Maturity (yrs)
1.70
1.78
1.74
Modified Duration
1.63
1.66
1.60
Average Book Yield
4.02%
4.48%
Average Market Yield
1.92%
4.06%
4.67%
Average Quality
AAA
AAA
AAA
Total Market Value
$31,385,926
$27,953,448
* 1 -3 yr Treasury
September 30, 2008
Sector Distribution
rporate
4%
Commercial Paper
5.1%
Money Market
Fund FI
0.4%
i Treasury
24.1%
September 30, 2007
i Corporate
21.0%
Commercial Paper
5.7%
Money Market
Fund FI
0.1%
IS Treasury
18.3%
C &I DURATION DISTRIBUTION and PERFORMANCE
City of Newport Beach, California
Portfolio Compared to the Benchmark as of September 30, 2008
80.0%
70.0%
80.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
T.0%
150%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
0%
City of Newport Beach, California
Period Ending
September 30, 2008
Total Rate of Return
Anniallmd Since hcephon
March 31.1991
1 -3 yr Treasury
Total rate of return: A measure of a portfolio's performance over time. It is the
internal rate of return, which equates the beginning value of the portfolio with the
ending value; it includes interest earnings, realized and unrealized gains and losses in
the portfolio.
C
b
w
12 MOrMS 2Yaars 9YeeR
SYean1
10 Yews
Since l,aW4on
C
• Fbrdolo
• Bancltnerk
■C3y of tAraport Beach, CalttaNe
N 1 yr Treasury
Annualized Annualized Mnuallzed
Mnualized Annualized
0.0.25
0.25 -0.5
0.5 -1
1 -2 2-3
34
45
5+
Latest: 3Mordhs 12MOntha
2Ysara 3Yom
6Years
"Yaars 51nce lreap0on
Portfolio
8.2%
7.9%
14.8%
24.5% 38.3%
6.4%
0.0%
0.0%
City of Newport Beach, Califomiz 8.59% 5.05%
5.27% 4.90%
3.55%
471% 5.55%
Benchmark'
0.00%
0.0%
2.4%
74.9% 22.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
14 yr Treasury 169% 5.27%
6.03% 5.25%
3.54%
452% 5.44%
1 -3 yr Treasury
Total rate of return: A measure of a portfolio's performance over time. It is the
internal rate of return, which equates the beginning value of the portfolio with the
ending value; it includes interest earnings, realized and unrealized gains and losses in
the portfolio.